2008 Financials Thread

[Flasch186]

end of day

the markets have tried to trade above their lows but its been tough sledding although the XLF (Financials) have hung in there even under the gun as PIMCO announces it picked up a bunch of the mortgage debt from Thornburg Mortgage.

Im looking at selling off half of my short position (SDS) to lock in some profits. The market might see a little bounce next week as some of the negative sentiment wears off over the weekend.

[Flasch186]

----who knows, maybe not, i have a hard time pulling the trigger.

[Flasch186]

sold half the short position to take a nice little profit. I will look to get back into this short position, or another one shortly after a slight bounce.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

sold half the short position to take a nice little profit. I will look to get back into this short position, or another one shortly after a slight bounce.

Well done...I really think you picked the right time to sell for some profits. The market is due to bounce back next week.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

Well done...I really think you picked the right time to sell for some profits. The market is due to bounce back next week.

thx

its been a long time since I could say profit and stock in the same sentence. Hard to believe that at one point i was tempted to get into Google (GOOG) at around 600 thinking that that would be a good deal.

[Logan]

ABK shot up 28% just before close, and is now down 13% in after hours.

That's...interesting.

[Flasch186]

yup...the financial sector including the insurers is just baffling. The moves down and up have been just crazy.

Like I said above, we may see a slight bump in the first half of the day on Monday and then more blood. I may get back in on the short side if that pop monday (which i could totally be wrong) is decent +100 or more.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Friday March 7, 2008

I must be a masochist for loving days like today. I could see that the market was due for a fall in premarket trading but morning meetings kept me on the sidelines for the first couple of hours. I was pretty distracted, taking quick glances to my computer screen ticker while one of my sales reps was going over his account review with me. Hopefully, he couldn't tell!

I put in four limit orders today and had two of them got filled. I bought another allotment of Potash (POT - TSX) today at $151.80, bringing my dollar/cost average on my holdings to $152.89. The stock closed today at $153.71 as it continues to go up and down like a toilet seat...just the way I like it! Again, I'll look to sell anywhere above $160.00 but am prepared to buy more should the share price fall into the $140s. I put in a second order at $149 and change but the share price never dipped that low today.

I also picked up some Agrium (AGU - TSX) today as fertilizers fell on the day. I nabbed Agrium at a bargain price of $67.95 and will look for it to hit $72 or $73 before selling. If it falls into the $65.00 neighborhood next week, I'll top up with some more shares. It closed at $69.26/share.

I failed to pick up First Quantum Minerals (FM - TSX) today, as it dipped to about $85.00 in early trading but I couldn't get my order in while I was working. The share price never got below $86.50 the rest of the day and my limit order of $85.84 was not filled.

The TSX ended down 78.72 points today (-0.59%) and my portfolio fared slightly better (-0.51%) due to my purchases making some money on the day.

For the week, I did pretty well, all things considered. My portfolio was down 0.78% while the index fell 2.22% so that's a positive.

I really feel I'm in a good position heading into next week. I was able to get some more money into the market but still have close to 25% of my portfolio in cash. If the market bumps, I can make profit on this week's purchases...if it continues to fall, I'll take advantage and make more purchases.

[Flasch186]

NoSkillz

When the market, or when you think the market is going to fall, do you play it short or use options to make money or are you strictly a long player, even shorter term?

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

NoSkillz

When the market, or when you think the market is going to fall, do you play it short or use options to make money or are you strictly a long player, even shorter term?

I have no interest in shorting stocks since the risk is too high. You can obviously lose an infinite amount of money if the market goes up.

I find no reason to get completely defensive when the market is scheduled to fall - there are PLENTY of opportunities to make a lot of money in a down market.

For me, if I know a stock is due to fall, I'll sell if I'm in a profitable position and rebuy when it drops to a position where it's undervalued. My hope is that it will fluctuate up and down to encourage multiple buys and sells. And it WILL fluctuate up and down, even if the market falls daily.

If I'm NOT in a profitable position on a stock, I'll take my medicine and go long with the holding. You just hope you have enough money on the sidelines to take advantage of deals when they come up.

[Flasch186]

following your commodities lead Im dipping a toe into Monsanto (MON) near it's lows at 102.36. It had bounced repeatedly off of lows over the past few months around 100 so picking it up here on a day where it's down close to 4% seems like a risk ok to take to see if I can catch a commodities bounce this week. This is a definite short term play as I do believe that there will be a reset in commodities. I am simply trying to catch a short term profit on this....yikes.

I am also selling out of my remaining shares of the short position (SDS) at a decent profit, leaving myself exposed to the fall from the XLF or any drop in Monsanto for the rest of the week.

I grab a little more MON at 101.58.

[NoSkillz]

Oof. I'm getting smoked today! I'll be back later with the total damage...

[Flasch186]

yeah Potash is getting killed.

Im hpoing that this is a one day thing and we get a bounce tomorrow.

My expected bounce didnt happen today

While I took some profits in the short, it continued its run up after I was out. In the meantime the XLF is killin' me daily and the Monsanto entry resulted in an immediate loss. Here's to hoping that commodities view this as a breather for a bounce this wk. If the trade has rolled over, then it could be a fast deep loss for me

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Monday March 10, 2008

Boy, did I get pummelled today! Variance hit me hard!

The TSX was down a whopping 276.63 points today (-2.08%) but I got throttled much more severely, with my portfolio dropping an unsightly 4.43%!!!

It was one of my worst days as an investor from a results perspective.

You just have to grin and bear it (as I bring out the cliches)!

As Flasch indicated, Potash Corporation (POT - TSX) dropped a tonne today, losing $11.08 per share (7.2%) to lead the charge downward.

HudBay Minerals (HBM - TSX: -5.1%), Teck Cominco (TCK.B - TSX: -3.6%), Quadra Mining (QUA - TSX: -4.1%), Research in Motion (RIM - TSX: -4.0%) and Agrium (AGU - TSX: -6.2%) were all big losers for me today.

Only one of my holdings was up, and that was by two pennies (Uranium One).

I bought a little more Potash on the way down today to bring my dollar cost average closer to $150/share. I resisted the temptation to buy shares of anything late in the day, just in case the market continues to fall tomorrow.

My portfolio has now fallen seven of the last eight days and all my gains from the previous stretch that saw me gain money in eight consecutive sessions has disappeared.

I still have about 15% of my porfolio in cash so I still can make a few more purchases if the downward trend continues.

But I will admit that I'm now hoping the market starts to move back up, new purchases be damned!

[Flasch186]

March 11

Write this day down.

The FED just put one of the legs back under the stool.

The FED open up Billions of dollars to investment banks but in a creative way, by allowing different kinds of collateral including "good" mortgages. HELLO!

They also did this in conjunction with the Canadian Central bank, the ECB, and Japan.

So not only is it grease in the gears but it is creative enough to perhaps give the markets some faith that they are actually going to be creative.

The Futures are skyrocketing and it seems that I got out of the short SDS about right woohoo!

[Logan]

I'm extremely glad I took a small loss on Jones Soda (JSDA) a week ago at $4.93. After a bump up near $5.25 a couple days after, it's down 28% in pre-market, to $3.11, after announcing $10MM in losses for 4Q.

[Flasch186]

boy oh boy. There is a temptation to walk away from the quick profit on Monsanto (MON) and chalk it up to a lucky entry and get back on the sideline.

[Flasch186]

yup, one day later I sold my Monsanto stake (MON) at a 3% gain. Normally I wouldve held longer but with the beatings ive been taking int he XLF and CSCO I viewed it as a chance to gain a little something back.

Since the morning's euphoria it's been nothing but downward selling pressure and I now expect us to end the day flat to slightly down. Let's see how it plays out but at least I made something on something.

[Flasch186]

generally the sentiment on the talking heads is that should we be able to hold around +200 for a little while longer, they could expect a second pop in the market and "close up big."

we'll see

[Flasch186]

end ish of day

What a day. the Markets are heading into their end run up almost 350 points on the DOW and up almost 40 on the S&P. Could this be the start of a bull run or at least the creation of the bottom we're looking for?

My XLF up dramatically (thank god)
Cisco (CSCO) way up

and I already locked in a 3% gain on Monsanto (MON) but that inturn had me miss the end of day run up and another almost 2%. Should the run continue it will have to be the beginning of a look for pull backs and buying from the shopping cart.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

generally the sentiment on the talking heads is that should we be able to hold around +200 for a little while longer, they could expect a second pop in the market and "close up big."

we'll see

Pretty accurate.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Logan

Pretty accurate.

yup, but I missed it on Monsanto and sold too early. Im afraid my losses on other trades had me predetermined to lock in those gains to mentally be able to "offset" them. Plus, the thought of having to do surgery on my dog gave me the whole, "that would help pay for the surgery" motivation. pffffffffft

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Tuesday March 11, 2008

What a turnaround today brought!

The Fed decision to lend $200 billion in Treasury securities in exchange for debt was met with roaring approval from investors today.

The TSX was up 339.44 points today (+2.61%), more than making up for yesterday's 276 point decline.

I had a spectacular day, with my portfolio rising 5.53%, my third biggest day in the past twelve months.

Leading the way was Potash (POT - TSX), yesterday's biggest decliner. Today, it gained $12.37 to close the day up 8.67%. Another agricultural holding, Agrium (AGU - TSX), actually one-upped Potash, gaining an incredible 9.32% for me today.

Other big gainers included Research in Motion (+7.13%), Uranium One (+7.74%), HudBay Minerals (+5.39%) and Teck Cominco (+5.73%). Quadra Mining was up slightly as well (+0.71%).

I had two holdings that fell on the day in March Networks (-1.13%) and superdud MGM Energy (-8.49%), which dropped to under a buck.

All in all, just a spectacular day for investors. I was just an observer today, with no buying or selling and will continue to wait to sell until I hit my targets on Potash (low to mid-160s) and Agrium (mid 70s).

[MikeVic]

If only I had my account all set up already... The stocks I'm watching all went up a nice amount.

[Flasch186]

yeah but remember how much most people have lost so far.

[Kodos]

Yep. Most people are down this year. I certainly am.

[DaddyTorgo]

today won't last though. We're looking at another emergency rate cut coming, and as much money as the central banks pump in for liquidity's sake, that still doesn't address the CONFIDENCE side of the equation.

not to mention that inflation is and will pick up with these rate cuts.
and unemployment is soaring, and we have yet to see the effects of that (combined with the rash of foreclosures and the difficulty in refinancing) truly affecting the consumers and being passed on to the corporate side of things.

[DaddyTorgo]

right now Bernanke is just in "throw everything including the kitchen sink at the problem" mode, desperate to try to have some sort of positive news I think.

[st.cronin]

Its like I said earlier, post-election things will be much clearer. Right now there's several potential bubbles, as investors are trying to figure out what's going to happen between now and november - in other words, they're looking for short term gains.

[Flasch186]

...although this is the first time that the government has done something that specifically attaches a value to mortgage backed securities. It is certainly a step towards building some sort of groundwork which has been totally destroyed.

[NoSkillz]

In times of uncertainty, looking at stocks that pay healthy dividends is a great option.

Two good ones I'm going to be investigating:

BTE.UN (Baytex Energy Trust) and AET.UN (ARC Energy Trust).

Both pay dividends in excess of 9% per year (!) and while ARC Energy is the bigger of the two, Baytex just upped their monthly distribution to $0.20/share (current trading price is just under $22.00/share). That means Baytex's yearly dividend yield is about 11%!

Awesome stuff and a very safe investment.

[Marc Vaughan]

Gut instinct for me is that there's going to be a huge crash to the floor in the very near future - the rally yesterday was great, but I think reality will come in with a vengeance at some point in the next couple of days when the next set of hard figures on the economy come out ... with that in mind I'm trying to get things sitting on the sideline so I can await some bargains when the next drop occurs.

[Flasch186]

any bargains on your radar? someone mentioned that even Google (GOOG) is looking like a "value" play? LOL

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

any bargains on your radar? someone mentioned that even Google (GOOG) is looking like a "value" play? LOL

BRK-A

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

BRK-A

It's down $490.00/share today...it's a bargain now!

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Wednesday March 12 & Thursday March 13, 2008

Sorry for being behind but I was out of the office yesterday afternoon.

Yesterday saw investors pull back a bit after the fantastic gains on Tuesday. To be honest, it was just a dull day in the market, with little happening. The TSX ended down 0.35% while my portfolio dragged a bit behind that, falling 0.59%.

It was a better day today, as gold and crude continue to soar. The TSX was up 139.63 points (+1.05%) and my portfolio fared extremely well, rising 1.78%.

Potash was up over $5.00/share (+3.3%), Agrium was up 1.9% and Research in Motion continued its climb, up 3.9%. I also had small gains with March Networks (+1.8%), HudBay Minerals, Teck Cominco and Quadra Mining.

Uranium One and MGM Energy were my two decliners.

That energy trust stock I talked about yesterday, Baytex (BTE.UN) is up close to 10% since yesterday. I haven't taken the plunge yet, as I still want to do some research but I'm not too worried about missing out - this type of stock is one you want to go long on to best take advantage of the monthly dividend payouts.

[Flasch186]

sorry I was out of commission today when it came to the markets as the bulk of my transactions havnt settled yet to be able to participate.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

In times of uncertainty, looking at stocks that pay healthy dividends is a great option.

Another equity to look for on this same front is Cedar Fair (FUN). They operate one major amusement park in Ohio (Cedar Point), a number of other regional amusement parks, and recently purchased several parks from Paramount. While they have been a great company for a long time, they have gotten themselves a bit extended with the purchase of the Paramount parks, and their stock price has been hit for it. However, they are a limited partnership and every penny they don't immediately reinvest into the operations or grounds goes right back in dividends... and their dividend has been set a $0.45 per quarter for some time. Right now, it's an annual dividend of $1.80 for a share price of about $22, which is a pretty sick ratio.

Now, on top of that, this is a company in a niche that tends to do fairly well in relatively lean years. The general thinking is that during recessionary times, many families are less willing to splurge on major vacations, and instead will look to do things that are less adventuresome and costly. So, the Sixpacks from Michigan will, instead of heading down for a week in Florida to do the mouse thing this year, they will do 2-3 days in Sandusky, Ohio at Cedar Point and the surrounding community's various minigolf and waterpark offerings. This is a company, and sector (regional entertainment offerings like Six Flags) that tends to do pretty well in the sort of economy where we sit. So -- not only is the dividend attractive, but there is real potential for this stock to rebound back to its historic levels, up into the 30s.

One note-- the longtime CEO Dick Kinzel is retiring very soon, and he has been one of the real stabilizing forces behind this company for a long time. I think concern that the new regime may be less sensitive to the park's traditional approaches to quality and cleanliness (and perhaps the dividend?) underly the current risk position. I personally believe that these fears are essentially fully realized in the low stock price as of right now -- I don't see how the stock has very far to go down unless they immolate over the Paramount deal -- but that's the potential risk involved on a tip that superficially sounds like it's too good to be true.


Anyway... I am long FUN as I write, and have an interest here, but my overall thinking is that it's a pretty good play for this sort of economy, and a stock that is fully depressed by its current uncertainties, plus one that yields a huge dividend on top. Worth a look on your own.

[Flasch186]

big CPI number tomorrow. should it show less or lowering inflation, the markets should jumo. BAd number = bad markets IMO

[Flasch186]

March 14

Today is a big day. A cooler than expected CPI # but Bear Stearns (BSC) is apparently getting some sort of bailout from the FED through JPMorgan. Its big news and rattling the market although this may be the beginning of the climactic throes that could signal the beginning of a bottom. We'll see.

[Fighter of Foo]

This ain't anywhere near the bottom.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

This ain't anywhere near the bottom.

+1

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Friday March 14, 2008

Toronto stocks ended a roller coaster week on a decidedly downward slope, falling sharply as the bailout of Bear Stearns reverberated across the border slamming financial services stocks and sparking a broader market sell-off.

The TSX was down 190.66 points today (-1.42%) but my portfolio actually fared better, which isn't usually the case during a down day as previously documented. I was down only 0.60% for the day as my agricultural stocks held relatively firm.

Potash was only down 0.2% while Agrium got hit a bit harder, falling 2.2%. Research in Motion also fell 3.8%. Uranium One, HudBay Minerals and Teck Cominco also fell for me today.

March Networks (+2.7%), MGM Energy (+4.2%) and Quadra Mining (+1.3%) had decent gains today to keep me close to even.

I had a very solid week, especially when compared to the market:

Week Ending March 14th
TSX: -0.22%
NoSkillz: +1.43%

I'll take that discrepancy every week!

Here's an update on how I'm doing overall in 2008. I'm fortunate to be in a positive position for the year, a pretty great feat all things considered.

YTD - 2008
TSX: -4.22%
NoSkillz: +2.42%

[Fidatelo]

Question: how do you guys track your profits etc to know how much you are up are down each day/week/whatever? Do you use special software or a website? Or is this just Excel + elbow grease?

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

This ain't anywhere near the bottom.

Well this is the washout that's needed for the bottom. Banks failing and consolidating. Now that it has begun I think we're closer to the bottom in the financials than ever.

Now, whether or not it's the bottom OVERALL meaning taking the recession and inflation and pressure, etc. into account. I dont know.

FID, my account tracks it at Bank of America annually. The average cost basis for a stock I have to track as I go if I enter a stock at more than one point.

BTW, I made no moves today and 75% of my money is on the sideline.

[Flasch186]

March 16

Stay tuned this week. It may be an historic week:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080316/jpmor...r_stearns.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080316/fed_credit_crisis.html



Quite possibly we could see the stock market fall 1000pts + this week....

Luckily, outside of my Cisco (CSCO) noose and my suicidal first toe dip into the XLF, the bulk of my investment is in the sidelines. Might consider going short again (SDS) or (QID) on Monday depending on how it's feeling to me.

[Flasch186]

bear in mind, due to my feelings the market will likely run up by 1000 pts.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

bear in mind, due to my feelings the market will likely run up by 1000 pts.

You mean down right?

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You mean down right?

no generally the market does the opposite of what I think it will do. I am getting better, or learning you could say, but in general Ive missed more than Ive been right. I had my two last trades be right but the ones before it, and bfore that and so on and so on we're "not so much".

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

no generally the market does the opposite of what I think it will do. I am getting better, or learning you could say, but in general Ive missed more than Ive been right. I had my two last trades be right but the ones before it, and bfore that and so on and so on we're "not so much".

Classic