Baseball Offseason 2004-5 Thread

[markprior22]

Trading Farnsworth with the current state of the Cubs bullpen and getting no "nice" prospects in return says alot about what the Cubs think of Farnsworth in general. I've heard all the comments about girl problems, mental problems, etc. Not too mention that he doesn't seem to have the ability to handle pressure situations. Maybe it will work out for him in Detroit. I wish he could have reached his potential with the Cubs but it's probably better this way. Going to be a VERY interesting season in Chicago.

[Ksyrup]

Given that Farnsworth appears to be on the Bret Saberhagen plan (ERAs by year - 6.43, 2.74, 7.33, 3.30, 4.73), and the fact that he's probably the 2nd best reliever in the Tigers' pen at this point, I expect him to be pretty good this year. His strikeout rate dropped very slightly but is still over 10.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by markprior22

Going to be a VERY interesting season in Chicago.

If by interesting you mean that we're going to be looking ahead to football season by mid-June, then yeah i think you're right.

I mean, I guess the Cubs had some difficult moves they had to consider with Sosa and Farnsworth... and apparently easy choices with Alou and Clement, but I just fail to see how its possible to say that the Cubs have gone forward with any move they've made so far this offseason... everything is heading in the wrong direction.


I understand all of the comments about both Sosa and Farnsworth, espicially Sosa of course, but I am strongly of the opinion that winning is the cure for all clubhouse problems... if the Cubs were winning, you wouldn't be hearing shit about Sosa. They would have been better to hang on to these guys and try to win with them than to give them up for utter crap and be losers.

[markprior22]

Originally Posted by Radii

If by interesting you mean that we're going to be looking ahead to football season by mid-June, then yeah i think you're right.

Not at all. Jim Hendry has earned my confidence with what he's done in the past couple of years. Last year marked the first time in 30+ years the Cubs have managed back to back above .500 seasons. I fully expect him to make some moves to strengthen the bullpen. Will it be enough? Only time will tell. If the starters are healthy, there is no reason the Cubs can't compete in this division.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by markprior22

If the starters are healthy, there is no reason the Cubs can't compete in this division.

http://www.lostinleftfield.com/Baker.html

Good luck with that.

[mhass]

I fear that both Houston and St. Louis have much better looking rosters right now and I'd give either one the nod. That means Chicago will clinch by September 1. They invariably do the exact opposite of what I predict.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

http://www.lostinleftfield.com/Baker.html

Good luck with that.

Wow, I haven't used the rollie eyes in a long time...

[PilotMan]

This is going to go down as one of the biggest busts, and money on a wasted player of all time. I thought that holding Carlos Perez was bad, this is way worse. How many sugeries does someone have to go through, and you still keep him on your team!

LOS ANGELES -- Darren Dreifort, who almost certainly has thrown his last pitch for the Dodgers, will undergo what he hopes is his last operation on Feb. 15, when doctors plan to do exploratory surgery on his right shoulder.


Dreifort, 33, required arthroscopic hip repair and reconstructive ACL knee surgery last season. He had left-knee surgery in January and the shoulder operation will make 14 procedures since he became a Dodger. Trainer Stan Johnston concedes Dreifort's pitching days might be over.

"He has given his body to the game," said Johnston.

General manager Paul DePodesta would not say whether Dreifort would pitch again.

"I think he still has a long road ahead of him," he said. Dreifort, however, will remain on the 40-man roster and will spend the season on the disabled list, which will allow him to receive $13.4 million in the last year of a five-year deal. The Dodgers will be reimbursed about half that amount through disability insurance.

[Ksyrup]

I think the majority of those surgeries happened after he signed his huge deal, and the contract is guaranteed, so what else are they supposed to do with him? Plus, I can guarantee that any insurance reimbursement depends on him being on the team. The insurer is not going to pay the salary of a guy who's been let go and could still pitch. Once they screwed up and signed him to that huge deal in the first place, the best thing that could have happened was the injuries - at least they're getting some of that money back.

[sterlingice]

A little tidbit from today's Baseball Prospectus Triple Play for HFP:

Picking Pedro: The Rangers have languished for years with an ineffective starting pitching staff, although it has often looked worse than it is due to the park factors in Arlington. Texas fans have pined for a starter to set things right, and the team has delivered, with such contracts as the disaster lavished upon Chan Ho Park and the seemingly-endless number of stints that Kenny Rogers has spent with the club. But this year. This year is different. This year the Rangers have brought on a pitcher who will strike fear into the hearts of opposing hitters--Pedro Astacio.

When we last left Mr. Astacio, he was busy racking up a 10.38 ERA in 8 2/3 innings for the eventual World Champs in Boston last last season. That was his comeback from a June 2003 shoulder surgery.

PECOTA isn't optimistic, foretelling a 5.34 ERA and a 6.7 VORP for the 35-year-old Astacio. Even the most optmistic Rangers fan would have to be disapointed if this is the big move of the offseason--Pedro hasn't thrown 200 innings in a season since 1999, and even in his last full season, with the Mets in 2002, his 12-11 record was only good for an underwhelming 9.2 VORP, or just a shade under one win over replacement.

Of course, every inning that Astacio manages to throw is one fewer thrown by Park, so there is an upside

SI

[Ksyrup]

On the Rangers, I read somewhere today that Kenny Rogers is hinting that he won't show up for work unless he gets a new contract. Apparently, he's a candidate to be a Cy Young voter, since he believes wins are the best indicator of a pitcher's worth.

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Apparently, he's a candidate to be a Cy Young voter, since he believes wins are the best indicator of a pitcher's worth.

A lot of uninformed baseball fans feel the same way, so I don't really blame him too much.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Arles

In the last three seasons Ortiz has been more like Carl Pavano and Odalis Perez than Shawn Estes from an ERA and win standpoint.

Russ Ortiz was yanked after giving up six runs in one-third of an inning tonight.

Four years and $33 million. Ortiz walked four and surrendered four hits in an ugly debut in his new home park. He ends the spring with a 7.94 ERA and a 7/10 K/BB ratio in 17 innings. Apr. 1 - 1:22 am et

:o

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Russ Ortiz was yanked after giving up six runs in one-third of an inning tonight.

Four years and $33 million. Ortiz walked four and surrendered four hits in an ugly debut in his new home park. He ends the spring with a 7.94 ERA and a 7/10 K/BB ratio in 17 innings. Apr. 1 - 1:22 am et

:o

gee whiz, by this logic the Rockies and Blue Jays are going to be the class of both league, Troy Glaus willl run away with the NL MVP award, and Clemens will have an ERA aorund 13.

Last I checked this was spring training And, FYI, Ortiz was 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA in 23 IP in 04 for the Braves during the Spring. He went on to have a 15-9 season with a 4.13 ERA in the "real" season. I would expect a similar result in 05

[Ksyrup]

You would expect the 2005 DBacks to equal the 2004 Braves? Wow.

[Bad-example]

Russ Ortiz was one of my favorite Giants but his move to Arizona does not bode well for his future. A big part of his game is throwing the fastball over the plate and relying on its natural movement to keep it in the yard. Another key for him is how his big curve is breaking. Both these factors will be affected by the thin air in his home starts.

Ortiz is an innings eater and a decent number 3 pitcher in the right situation but that home park is going to be rough on him.

[CentralMassHokie]

As I tried to communicate about 40 times in this thread, Ortiz is going to get killed by pitching half his games in BOB.

He walks too many guys and doesn't strike enough out. When he played in pitcher's parks (SF and Atl), it's not as big a deal as he could get hit and the spacious field would give his OF a chance to get under it. Playing in the BOB with an OF with Gonzales, Cruz, and Green is going to kill Ortiz. Walks, lots of gappers, and a ton of bombs.

His ERA is going to be within +/- .1 of 5 this season.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You would expect the 2005 DBacks to equal the 2004 Braves? Wow.

No, I expect a similar increase in peformance from Spring to the start of the season. In 04, his ERA went from 6.26 in Spring to 4.13 during the season. I expect that his ERA will have a similar trend in 05 going from 7.94 to around 4.4 or 4.5 in the season. For wins, I'm just not sure but I see no reason why he can't match the 15 wins he had in 04. He will be Arizona's No. 2 or 3 starter.

My prediction for Ortiz in 05 is 15-10, 4.47 ERA in about 205 IP.

[sterlingice]

Maybe we should have a first annual Russ Ortiz thread

SI

[Arles]

I think it's already happened

[tdydynasty]

It is just about time to start the 2005 MLB Regular Season thread.

[Buccaneer]

The NL West will likely be weak and it'll be fun following the Pads.

Also, my heart does a happy-dance when I see "Washington Nationals" in the standings, power poll, etc.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Arles

No, I expect a similar increase in peformance from Spring to the start of the season. In 04, his ERA went from 6.26 in Spring to 4.13 during the season. I expect that his ERA will have a similar trend in 05 going from 7.94 to around 4.4 or 4.5 in the season. For wins, I'm just not sure but I see no reason why he can't match the 15 wins he had in 04. He will be Arizona's No. 2 or 3 starter.

My prediction for Ortiz in 05 is 15-10, 4.47 ERA in about 205 IP.

Russ Ortiz is in no way, shape, or form the kind of pitcher who can overcome his team. Hell, even RJ had a near-.500 record with them. They'd have to win 85-90 games for Ortiz to win 15. Even if the DBacks are improved, and even with them playing in a pretty mediocre division, I don't see them improving that much. If they improve 25 games over last season, they'll still finish with 86 losses. And Ortiz will likely have a losing season.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Hell, even RJ had a near-.500 record with them.

Starting lineup with Johnson pitching in 04:
1. 2B Scott Hairston - .293 OBP
2. SS Alex Cintron - .301 OBP
3. LF Luis Gonzalez - .866 OPS
4. 1B Shea Hillenbrand - .812 OPS
5. 3B Chad Tracy - .750 OPS
6. RF Danny Bautista - .733 OPS
7. CF Luis Terrero - .319 OBP
8. C Jaun Brito - .246 OBP

(Likely) Starting lineup when Ortiz pitches in 05:
1. 2B Craig Counsell - .330 OBP
2. SS Royce Clayton - .338 OBP
3. LF Luis Gonzalez - .866 OPS
4. 3B Troy Glaus - .930 OPS
5. RF Shawn Green - .811 OPS (much higher in the 2nd half)
6. CF Jose Cruz Jr. - .766 OPS
7. 1B Chad Tracy - .343 OBP
8. C Koye Hill - didn't play much, but .340 OBP in ZIPS

I'd say there's slightly more firepower in the latter group Four starters from 04 will either be on the bench or in the minors, two were shipped off because they lost their job to better players and Gonzo will be at 100% going into the season. Not to metion the fact that their bench will be much better - almost Arizona's entire bench from 04 is in the minors or released.

Under the former, Ortiz would be lucky to get 10 wins because of both offense and defense (as Webb found out in 04). In this new lineup, he shouldn't have too hard a time getting 14-15 if he stays healthy.

They'd have to win 85-90 games for Ortiz to win 15.

I'm predicting around 80. From a starting pitcher standpoint, I would go:
Vazquez - 16
Ortiz - 15
Webb - 14
Estes - 9
Halsey - 7

If they improve 25 games over last season, they'll still finish with 86 losses. And Ortiz will likely have a losing season.

The DBacks finished significantly below their pythag win total in 04. They *should* have been a 65-66 win total team based on their personnel for the season. So, if you factor that in with the addition of 6 new offensive starters and 4 new starting pitchers, there's certainly a decent chance they could finish in the 80 win range.

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by Arles

Starting lineup with Johnson pitching in 04:
1. 2B Scott Hairston - .293 OBP
2. SS Alex Cintron - .301 OBP
3. LF Luis Gonzalez - .866 OPS
4. 1B Shea Hillenbrand - .812 OPS
5. 3B Chad Tracy - .750 OPS
6. RF Danny Bautista - .733 OPS
7. CF Luis Terrero - .319 OBP
8. C Jaun Brito - .246 OBP

(Likely) Starting lineup when Ortiz pitches in 05:
1. 2B Craig Counsell - .330 OBP
2. SS Royce Clayton - .338 OBP
3. LF Luis Gonzalez - .866 OPS
4. 3B Troy Glaus - .930 OPS
5. RF Shawn Green - .811 OPS (much higher in the 2nd half)
6. CF Jose Cruz Jr. - .766 OPS
7. 1B Chad Tracy - .343 OBP
8. C Koye Hill - didn't play much, but .340 OBP in ZIPS

.330 and .338 OBP at the top of the order is ridiculously below average.

Gonzalez' .866 OPS and Glaus' .930 OPS were both in about a half-season or less. Gonzalez is now 37 and simply isn't a good bet to put up a full season of .850 OPS. Glaus is a career .850 OPS guy who gets hurt. A lot.

It's a better team. It's just not that much better. 50 runs? 100 runs? That still puts them at about 700 runs on the season.

The DBacks finished significantly below their pythag win total in 04. They *should* have been a 65-66 win total team based on their personnel for the season. So, if you factor that in with the addition of 6 new offensive starters and 4 new starting pitchers, there's certainly a decent chance they could finish in the 80 win range.

The Dbacks finished a full 3 games under their Pythag of 54-108. The pitching staff now includes the 3 pitchers in the NL who walked the most batters in 2004 - Webb, Ortiz, and Estes.

Even if you think that the offense is 100 runs better and the pitching is 100 runs better, they'd be on track for 72 wins.

It's arguable that the new offense could put up 100-150 runs. I think they're on the low end of that, at best, but I wouldn't argue with you. But it's completely indefensible that the pitching is 100 runs better.

The DBacks won't win 68 games.

Edited to add: Just wanted to mention that if you use the ZiPS projection for the offense and pitching for the Diamondbacks that you mentioned for Koyie Hill above, the offense will actually be worse! than last year (age regressions for Counsell, Clayton, and Gonzalez; injury projections for Glaus; decline for Green) and the pitching marginally better, putting that Diamondbacks at about 65 wins.

[Arles]

I would be shocked if Arizona wins less than 75 games and think they should end up near 80. We'll see where they end up

[ISiddiqui]

I think CentralMassHokie is closer to where the D-Backs will finish. They just aren't as good as you think, Arles. Though I am interested to see what Ortiz does without Mazzone. It could be painful.

[Swaggs]

I would be interested to see how many 75-80 win teams have three SP with more than 14 wins. Not being smart, but following the Pirates for so long, I'm familiar with that number of wins (and less) and it seems like you rarely have more than one or two SP with double-digit victories, and a lot of times those guys, if veterans, get traded b/c a 75-80 win team isn't going anywhere.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I would be interested to see how many 75-80 win teams have three SP with more than 14 wins. Not being smart, but following the Pirates for so long, I'm familiar with that number of wins (and less) and it seems like you rarely have more than one or two SP with double-digit victories, and a lot of times those guys, if veterans, get traded b/c a 75-80 win team isn't going anywhere.

Yeah, that's an excellent point. Given their win total of 75-80, it will probably be closer to:

Ortiz - 15
Vazquez - 13
Webb - 12

Also, as an FYI, Vegas has the over-under for wins for Arizona at 70.5:

hxxp://www.vegasinsider.com/u/futures/MLB_1059.cfm (not sure if some work filters key on gambling sites)

That seems a little low to me, but those Vegas guys usually know what they are doing I would set the line at around 75, but what do I know

[Swaggs]

Someone from here should do a fantasy team dynasty. That would be fun to follow. I've never been able to get into fantasy, but it would be pretty cool to watch the team through the season and keep up with the owners' mindset.