2008 Financials Thread

[Coffee Warlord]

Ohhh you dare mention Cisco in my presence.

*sighs as he looks once again at what he bought it for many many years ago*

[Flasch186]

February 27

The EU fines Microsoft (MSFT) $1.5 Billion (on top of 1.5 before) for over-charging software developers.

Durable goods orders for JAnuary comes out and theyre nasty numbers and confirm the slowdown. Some people sift through for a silver lining but the markets futures are negative (good for my short).

The dollar hits new lows while oil finds new highs. Nothing positive in my book so Im sure we'll have a monster rally and finish up.

[Flasch186]

breaking news

Caps are being lifted on Fannie and Freddie on March 1st so that could free up BILLIONS in mortgage monies. The reserve requirements could be lowered too.

This is huge and could be a huge boon for the markets. There goes my short position again.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Well the markets generally look to finish flat which is quite an achievment considering how they started. I finish up with a nice day for CSCO, XLF, and even my short ends up slightly.

IMO, there is every reason for the market to go down and retouch the lows. The machine, to me, seems to be grinding and I just dont think it will be able to run up until it retouches the lows.....so it'll probably be a huge bull run coming up

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

breaking news

Caps are being lifted on Fannie and Freddie on March 1st so that could free up BILLIONS in mortgage monies. The reserve requirements could be lowered too.

This is huge and could be a huge boon for the markets. There goes my short position again.

I am wondering if this would have any effect on the interest rates related to mortgages in any way?

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I am wondering if this would have any effect on the interest rates related to mortgages in any way?

I would hope so BUT the 30% reserve requirement is still in place so the liquidity may not appear as soon as the caps are lifted. some think it's really just pushing the risk further down the road but not alleviating it if not magnifying it.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Wednesday February 27, 2008

Stocks turned slightly lower on Wednesday afternoon after earlier gains on news of the lifting of lending caps for mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac proved short-lived.

The TSX was mixed, falling 18.63 points (-0.14%) but I continued to defy the odds, somehow ending up 0.63%. I haven't had a negative day since February 14th, my longest positive streak in a year.

I was once again carried by First Quantum Minerals (FM - TSX) but that trend won't certainly continue tomorrow. That's because I sold off all my remaining shares in the company for $95.98/share. I sold off half yesterday, if you recall, for $93.17 and held onto the other half hoping for an increase. I'm satisfied being out at almost $96.00 and will look for a re-entry point should the stock fall (it closed at $94.14).

Research in Motion (RIM - TSX) also was up substantially, up $3.57 (3.4%) on the day and it was the second biggest gainer on the exchange.

Uranium One (UUU - TSX) also had a decent bounce back day, increasing $0.44 (9%) but as previously indicated, I'm still WAY behind on this stock.

Teck Cominco (TCK.B - TSX: +2.1%) and HudBay Minerals (HBM - TSX: +0.7%) also gained on the day. MGM Energy was flat while March Networks (MN - TSX: -1.1%) and Quadra Mining (QUA - TSX: -1.0%) were the two holdings that fell.

With my FM sales, I now have over 60% of my portfolio on the sidelines. Potash Corporation (POT - TSX) fell $2.48 today and I will keep a close eye on it tomorrow as a possible purchase, as its valuation is becoming more attactive by the day.

[Flasch186]

February 28

So the reports are in and confirm what we already know. Q4 was almost no growth so if we're not in the recession now Im not sure how we could avoid it. the question is, is this already priced in?

The markets start lower dragging just about everything but Apple with it. Im too late on it and now have to wait on pullbacks, which I suspect will be coming, hence my short.

The markets are being resilient off of the start though so we shall see. The VIX is at the lower end of it's range which is good for bulls but it's been there before and spiked so we shall see.

[NoSkillz]

Just a quick mid-day post to say that it looks like my winning streak is coming to an end.

March Networks (MN - TSX) reported earnings this morning and they were DREADFUL. They reported a loss AND lowered projections for future quarters, the dreaded double whammy.

At the moment, the stock is down $1.64 for the day or more tellingly, down 20.1%

Needless to say, this is weighing me down quite a bit today and it looks like I'm due for my first losing session in two weeks.

[Flasch186]

end of day

outside of Apple (AAPL) the markets generally fall today. Bernanke mentioned that he expected some bank "failures" and that exacerbated the -60 that we generally floated at all day ending up down 100 or so.

My XLF took a beating and Cisco finished down a bit while my short gained back over a buck per share.

I wish I ahd talked myself into pulling the trigger early in the day on Apple but couldnt do it as I have 35% on the sideline right now. Had I done so I couldve had a nice windfall instead i continue to toil in the red.

[NoSkillz]

Belated Post-Mortem: Thursday February 28, 2008

As indicated, my winning streak finally ended yesterday, as my portfolio fell for the first time since Valentine's Day, dropping 0.57% on the day. The TSX was up 0.69% so there was quite the discrepancy...

It was all due to March Networks (MN - TSX) dropping off the planet, falling over 20% on the day after a terrible earnings report. Research in Motion (RIM - TSX) was also down a couple bucks.

On the positive side, Teck Cominco continues to bounce back nicely for me, up another dollar or so to $41.19. Just over a month ago (January 22nd), this stock was trading at $28.00/share so it's almost up 50% in a month.

Things look quite dour for me at the start of the day today as well...

MGM Energy (MGX - TSX), a speculative mining play of mine, just announced that they are abandoning one of their mines. This won't bode well for the share price today I'm afraid...

[Marc Vaughan]

If you've got spare cash I reckon E-Trade (ETFC) is a great buy at the moment - its notching far below its normal value and should bounce nicely as soon as the market find some positive news (say in six months or so's time ).

[Flasch186]

February 29

I concur with Marc that Etrade does look attractive.

So today is ouor leg down perhaps but Im looking for a week of this. So next week may be just that but at least I feel somewhat vindicated. My short is back up near the top of where I averaged in...

My XLF seemed to be way too early and now Im going to have to look at entering in again to average my entry much lower than where I started.

Wal-mart is coming back to me but I foresee a reset over the next few weeks where we retest those lows set end of January. Im not sure that will be the last test but we're due for a breakout and I see the downside risk be far more likely than an upside surprise.

Should Apple (AAPL) continue its slide amongst all the rest I may look to dive in earlier rather than later.

[Flasch186]

midday

Fed chief in St. Louis makes some comments that are hawkish on fed rates and states that fighting a recession while ignoring inflation only delays the recession, or something like that.

AIG reports monstrous losses. Credit crunch concerns regarding Ambac.

....Thus the markets are in a pretty good selloff to end the week, down 282 and session lows come 2:00pm. Apple down almost 3%, Gamestop has given up a ton and now rests near 42 therefore my love of it under 50 seems premature but at least I didnt enter.

My short (SDS) is doing great today up over 4% and my averaging down helped me see some profits here. 'bout time, I will remain as I think next week will be tough for equities.

Cisco is hanging in there on good word from Novell (SP?) and the global growth story.

Finally the XLF is getting killed again, down almost 3%. I will have to do some more averaging in BUT this play was a recession turning play and a lead out come Q4....I've been proven to be too early here. Contrarian to a fault.

BTW I have missed out completely on the Oil and commodities boom....Conoco Phillips would be the one I would enter and just may due to their nat gas exposure and the summer runup.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Vindication.

The market is crumbling. down 300+ and my short is slamming it.

Walmart is now below where I sold it earlier this week.

Apple is coming back to us but Im afraid I dont want to be in front of next week. I see it flat to down.

My XLF is down but I have to keep thinking of it as a small Long term play.

Cisco is, well cisco.

[MikeVic]

Nice Flasch.

[Flasch186]

'bout time I had something right. Now Im not making a move yet so we'll have to see how next week plays out to confirm that I actually did something right.

giving a tiny bit back afterhours but to be expected.

ewww, just learned Apple's shareholder meeting and "roadmap" is next week. May want to get in on Monday for a weeklong play there.....see if I can get a pop.

[NoSkillz]

Well done on the short, Flasch!

[NoSkillz]

Post Mortem: Friday February 29, 2008

My fears about MGM Energy (MGX - TSX) from early this morning were realized, as the stock plummeted over 35% after the company abandoned a well in the Mackenzie Delta. This was a speculative play on my part that looks like it's fizzling out. Not the biggest deal in the world, as I didn't have a lot of money invested. I'm a big believer in having a little money set aside for speculation, as the upside is much greater than the downside.

As poker players would say, variance struck me hard today!

The stock markets got smoked today, something I had been waiting for, with the TSX was down 291.20 today (-2.10%). Still, I agree wholeheartedly with Flasch...I think it will fall a bit more so I only made one small purchase today, seeing an opportunity to jump on an undervalued gold stock in Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM - TSX). AEM was up $1.06 from my purchase price at market close so it was a solid decision.

That was my only positive stock on the day, as my other seven holdings all fell.

On the day, my portfolio fell an unsightly 2.41% and it would have been MUCH worse if I didn't have so much money sitting on the sidelines.

For the week, I fell 0.84% while the TSX only fell 0.02%.

However, with February in the books, I can report that I had a tremendous month overall, gaining 7.47% while the TSX only gained 3.25%. Very, very solid.

For 2008, I'm up 1.82% while the market is down 1.83%. Again, I'm very satisfied with this.

I expect things to soften a bit next week and hopefully I can find a couple of stock bottoms to take advantage of. I'm especially keeping my eye on Potash Corporation (POT - TSX) and Agrium (AGU - TSX), two of my favourites.

[Flasch186]

i wanna talk about Mon, Pot, AGU, Deere. Do you not think that we're blowing up a balloon? I hear the global growth story but are we not going to see the ag boom reset? Im afraid to get into it, or oil this late in the game. thoughts?

[Flasch186]

March 3

The futures point lower as more concerns about financials come in along with the bond insurers but they are coming off of their earlier lows. As a matter of fact the S&P is about flat.

Inflation worries persist and this may be a volatile week. Warren Buffett on CNBC all morning had quite a few things to say including that he does not think we have hit the "bottom" but he was cautious to say that it is extremely difficult to "pick it". He also stated that by "any common definition we're already in a recession."

[Flasch186]

follow up

Apple (AAPL) received some cuts of forecasts for the Iphone and IPODs, from BOA citing the weak consumer. This ontop of a Goldman downgrade of the internet sector will put some pressure on the Nasdaq (QQQQ) BUT IMO this could provide an opportunity this week to enter into Apple.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

i wanna talk about Mon, Pot, AGU, Deere. Do you not think that we're blowing up a balloon? I hear the global growth story but are we not going to see the ag boom reset? Im afraid to get into it, or oil this late in the game. thoughts?

I don't think this is a trend. I really think that this segment will continue to grow in line with the increasing demand.

I also expect gold to continue to stay strong and will be a great hedge against a possible downturning overall market.

[Flasch186]

update

the S&P are approaching some critical technical numbers at 1300, a close behind that and we could be in front of a very tough week.

The short is up about 1.5% while WMT (which Im watching is up nominally).

The XLF has gottne blasted today, down over 2% in the wake of some rumors that things are looking worse in the month ahead for financial institutions broadly.

Apple is down almost 5% giving back all of it's recent gains and then some as the internet sector and DAQ get hit.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Monday March 3, 2008

Up and down day on the TSX, which ends down 38.31 points or 0.28%.

It was a relatively busy day for me. I took advantage of the soaring gold prices and sold off my shares of Agnico-Eagle Mining (AEM - TSX) after holding them for only one business day.

I purchased the shares on Friday for $66.94/share and sold them at $70.34, making close to 4.5% after commissions. Pretty good return for one day!

As indicated earlier, I'm still very high on gold but I decided to take advantage of making a quick profit with the expectation of buying back in around $67/share in the next week or so.

I also was able to pick up some Potash Corporation shares today (POT - TSX) at $153.90. It closed at $155.06 but I plan on holding the shares until it reaches $160.00...perhaps higher. In fact, I kind of hope the market continues to soften so I can buy more shares of this. I'll buy more if the stock price goes down to $152.

Overall, I was up for the day because of my moves, gaining 0.54% overall.

Teck Cominco (TCK.B - TSX) gained 4.3% on the day as investors seemed to gravitate toward gold and base metals. HudBay Minerals (HBM - TSX: +3.19%) and MGM Energy (MGX - TSX: +2.11%) were also up for me today.

Losing ground were Research in Motion, something I hold very little of now (RIM - TSX: -3.43%), Uranium One (UUU - TSX: -3.08%), March Networks (MN - TSX: -3.94%) and Quadra Mining (QUA - TSX: -0.10%).

Again, I am actually hoping things continue to soften so I can get more of my cash into the market, especially on the agricultural side, where quick profits can be made.

[NoSkillz]

Dola:

Is this stuff I'm posting interesting or helpful to anyone? Should I focus less on the statistics of how I'm doing?

[Flasch186]

March 4

NS, I like it

The markets are crumbling. Earnings for financials are being cut by analysts left and right (wish I wouldve avoided the temptation to get into the XLF when I did).

Intel (INTC) cut it's Q1 profit estimate dragging the markets down. Apple (AAPL) price targets cut.

Bernanke speaks today imploring that more needs to be done to save the rising risk of foreclosure on a grand scale in this country to help the economy. He also pointed out that foreclosures are losing the bank half their value / foreclosed home. Not good.

My short is doing well. If the S&P closes below 1300 we'll have beat a technical level and could see substantial losses going down to the next level at 1260 (I think)

[Flasch186]

barely in and markets under pressure

....and a lot of it. Across the board, earnings estimates cuts, downgrades, commentary, all pressure and we're seeing a down day (thus far) but some scary stuff on the horizon if we cant stabilize. The short is way up...XLF way down but Im positive for the day thus far. I could sell out of my XLF and try to get in much much lower and later. i dont know. I just got in too early and mistook the bottom for the not-so-bottom there.

ETrade (ETFC), which I found attractive, is getting crushed, down over 11% today.

[molson]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

Dola:

Is this stuff I'm posting interesting or helpful to anyone? Should I focus less on the statistics of how I'm doing?

I find it interesting

[Flasch186]

end of day ish

what a fight back. the market was down 200+ at one point but now is back to only being down ~70.

Apple and the Nasdaq leading the way to Green.

Apparently, there is impending news on a potential Ambak (ABK) bailout. We shall see if it finally bears fruit.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

Dola:

Is this stuff I'm posting interesting or helpful to anyone? Should I focus less on the statistics of how I'm doing?

I think the format is fine - its interesting following your thought patterns and I'm learning a lot following your lead.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

end of day ish
Apparently, there is impending news on a potential Ambak (ABK) bailout. We shall see if it finally bears fruit.

I really hope this comes through tomorrow or the next day - the market seems desperate for some good news and once this drops I expect a spirited rally ... well until the next lot of bad news hits

[Flasch186]

i may move out of my short position tomorrow so we shall see. it would be a nice little profit but im not sure yet. I most certainly do not expect a bull run anytime soon but if I can time a couple of moves in and out of there it might be nice.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

i may move out of my short position tomorrow so we shall see. it would be a nice little profit but im not sure yet. I most certainly do not expect a bull run anytime soon but if I can time a couple of moves in and out of there it might be nice.

Early news seems to indicate a definite rise initially imho - so long as negative news stays minimal there might be a nice 'kick' in the market today ..

[NoSkillz]

Belated Post-Mortem: Tuesday March 4, 2008

I had a meeting out of town yesterday afternoon so I missed the late rally in the market. The TSX was down around 200 points when I left the office and I put in three limit orders, hoping for the market to drop a bit further.

One of those orders came through, as I was able to add more Potash (POT - TSX) to my portfolio at $152.96, about a dollar a share lower than the shares I bought the day before. The share price closed at $156.51 so the late day rally helped me a great deal.

I just missed out on getting back into Agrium (AGU - TSX) as well, falling four tantalizing cents short of getting my purchase. Ah, the perils of not being around when the stock is dropping! No big deal though...I set the price I wanted it at and it just didn't quite fall far enough.

Thanks to Research in Motion's 5.29% increase, I was able to get through the day with my portfolio only falling 0.14% while the TSX fell 0.50%. March Networks (MN - TSX: +3.91%) was my only other holding (other than POT and RIM) that rose on the day, with UUU, MGX, TCK.B, HBM and QUA all falling.

If there is a rally in the market today, there is a good chance I'll fall short of the index. I've been able to beat the market with my portfolio lately due to the fact I have no financials among my holdings and that segment has gotten killed recently. Any rally today will likely be spearheaded by financials so I'd expect to trail the market if that's the case.

Time will tell...

[Flasch186]

March 5

Sorry for the late start, meeting this morning.

The markets have generally been higher on a stronger than expected service sector report. There is also the specter of an Ambak bailout.

The retailers are leading the charge thus far today.

[Logan]

ABK announced that they will try to raise $1 billion through offering common stock and another $500 million in equity units that could be converted to stock in 2011. The stock was up about 6% earlier in the day because of the bailout hopes, and is down about 15% now after that news.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Logan, good call.

The Ambak "bailout" is a true letdown for shareholders. Not enough money, dilution of stock, no guarantee of bond ratings, etc. Its just no good.

The markets are going to finish flat it would seem or slightly higher which is good considering how high and how low it was today. I finished slightly down for today.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Wednesday March 5, 2008

Well, I was wrong when I said the financials were going to bounce back and ensure I'd trail the market. It was gold and energy that led the way instead.

Very slow day for yours truly. The TSX ended up for the day, gaining a very nice 126.51 points (+0.94%). However, I was DOWN slightly for the day, dropping 0.20%.

Five of my eight holdings were down but the major hit took place when beleaguered MGM Energy (MGX - TSX) came out with news that yet ANOTHER well of theirs is dry. The exchange actually halted trading on the stock as the news came out and the stock ended up dropping to as low at $0.92/share before recovering somewhat to $1.11. It ended up down 15.9% today. My purchase price was $2.99 so this qualifies as a huge dud for me.

Uranium One, March Networks, Research in Motion and Quadra Mining were all down as well today while HudBay Minerals, Teck Cominco and Potash were up.

No trades today. The stocks I'm looking to get into (Agrium, Potash, Agnico Eagle Mines, possibly Suncor Energy) all increased today so there weren't any buying opportunities.

For the week, I'm up a little bit and still slightly ahead of the index so the news isn't all bad! We'll see what tomorrow brings...

[Kodos]

I bet investing was more fun during the Clinton years.

[Flasch186]

end end of day

Well nothing new in the markets except to watch the XLF drop daily. Ugh

Apple still looks very attractive to me but I havnt taken a leap yet. Supposedly, big announcement from them coming tomorrow wherein theyll attack RIMM. We'll see.

In better news. sold a home to day and my neighborhood is now down to 1 finished spec and while that looks good on paper to the bigwigs it means no quick paychex for yours truly SO we'll be, for the first time in a very very long time, be putting in for some more spec homes to be built....perhaps the market will turn around in Jacksonville, sooner rather than later.

[Flasch186]

MArch 6

A little bit of data this morning that wasn't as bad as it couldve been although the housing numbers are terrible. The market is definitely in a negative mood and financials are leading the way with one of the big Jumbo Mortgage providers unable to meet margin calls. Decidedly negative concern regarding the financials. did I mention I think i bought to early on the XLF

[Flasch186]

wanted to advise that Im thinking about taking SOME of my short off as profit. Since Ill still have some in that short SDS, Im not sure what the market would do. Im POSITIVE if I took the whole thing off the market would fall 500 points but by taking half off I may fuck with the universe. I wouldnt be surprised if the power went out to the street and the markets shut down completely. Ill let you know if I pull the trigger or just watch for some emergency to occur and you'll know I did.

--- i mustve faked out the markets

[Flasch186]

end of day

uh oh

Markets crumbled. S&P finished below its Jan low (1310) and we still have the unemployment numbers tomorrow.

My short did exceedingly well today, I hung in on all of it.

XLF was down again and will continue to be so. Sunk money that Ill sit on long term (i keep telling myself)

Wal-mart was the only DOW winner today.

Apple finished the day down almost 3% even after speaking about their open software to compete with RIMM for business business.

an ugly ugly day and tomorrow could continue the bleedout.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

end of day

Apple finished the day down almost 3% even after speaking about their open software to compete with RIMM for business business.

I found it interesting that Steve Jobs came out and said that the IPhone software wouldn't really be a profitable part of their company. Could that be a reason for the lack of positive sentiment?

I'm going to have to do some personal comparisons between AAPL and RIMM from a profit margin perspective...

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Thursday March 6, 2008

A really rough day in the markets, as the TSX dropped a whopping 242.88 points (-1.79%) overall.

I fared quite a bit better than the index but still fell on the day, with my portfolio dropping 0.56%.

Four of my eight holdings went up today - March Networks (MN - TSX: +1.9%), MGM Energy (MGX - TSX: +3.6%), Teck Cominco (TCK.B - TSX: +0.6%) and Quada Mining (QUA - TSX: +0.1%) gained a bit of ground.

Uranium One (UUU - TSX: -7.3%), HudBay Minerals (HBM - TSX: -3.0%), Research in Motion (RIM - TSX: -3.4%) and Potash Corporation (POT - TSX: -0.8%) lost ground.

I put in a one-day limit order for First Quantum Minerals (FM - TSX) at $86.46 but the share price didn't fall any lower than $87.00 after I put the order in. FM is reporting earnings next week and I'm bullish on the projected results. If you recall, I sold off all my shares last week when it eclipsed $95.00.

I'll take a look at how things stand in the morning tomorrow and may put another order in for FM. I'm also keeping a close eye on Agrium (AGU - TSX) but would need the stock to fall to about $69 before I have any interest.

If the market goes up tomorrow, I'll also consider selling my shares in Potash if it exceeds $162.00/share or so.

[Flasch186]

alright im gonna be bandwagon joiner tomorrow and will join a commodity play...not sure where Ill end up yet. Oil, Gold, ag.....USO, GLD, POT, MON, etc. on a pullback. Maybe even Conoco (COP) for it's nat gas.

oh, and I think im going to take my lumps and sell the XLF. Tax loss. What can i say, got the toe lopped off. Ill try and get in again when we hit those september lows now.....i see us heading much lower over the next 2 weeks.

[Fidatelo]

Anyone know of a pet insurance company that is publicly traded? I know that Western Financial Group owns 25% of HED (which owns PetPlan), but I'd really like to target pet insurance specifically.

[Flasch186]

March 7

830am

The jobs number comes out and now that we have slightly broken January's lows it is critically important that this number be stronger than expected. The market could tumble on anything but.

The chatter is that the credit markets are seizing up again like last August. Mortgage rates are climbing at astronomical pace. .50 move in just 3 days. This has got to be brought back down somehow either through an emergency rate cut which would be extreme to liquidity auctioning.

Im still short the market (SDS) but long financials (XLF) luckily the SDS has made more money than the XLF has lost. Timing my moves there will be key to making it through this time at a profit.

[Flasch186]

midday

boy was i on point this morning.