Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war discussion thread.......

[ThunderingHERD]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Wal-Mart has an existing relationship with the Chinese manufacturer that is going to produce the low-cost BR player. We'll have to see how they handle that when it comes out.

What is your source for that? The only thing I've heard about a Walmart manufacturing deal was based on an article from a Chinese newspaper. Within a few days Walmart had denied it and the manufacturer said something to the effect that they'd been misquoted, that Walmart had only made an inquiry. This was months ago. Also, it was for HD-DVD--some blogs, etc. misreported it as BR based on an incorrect translation.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

What is your source for that? The only thing I've heard about a Walmart manufacturing deal was based on an article from a Chinese newspaper. Within a few days Walmart had denied it and the manufacturer said something to the effect that they'd been misquoted, that Walmart had only made an inquiry. This was months ago. Also, it was for HD-DVD--some blogs, etc. misreported it as BR based on an incorrect translation.

Funai is the name of the company. They will be building the parts for BR players and selling them under brand names such as Sylvania, Emerson, and Magnavox. They currently have a relationship with Wal-mart and the associated brands to sell regular DVD players as well. They create all of the parts in China and then ship all of the parts to the U.S. so they can be assembled in the U.S. under the various brands (have to do that to maintain their "Made in the USA" claim on products).

[ThunderingHERD]

Ah, I hadn't heard that one.

I don't guess they've announced any prices yet, but all the speculation I can find is just that it will be cheaper that the BR players currently on the market. Even if (best case scenario) they match the low-end HD DVD players on price, I don't see a Duraband BR player being a more attractive option to consumers than a Toshiba HD DVD for the same or less.

Anyway, I don't think it matters all that much--I think projections of any kind of imminent boom in are way off and based on a number of incorrect assumptions.

The majority of people just aren't as interested in HD content as the electronics companies and home theater buffs think they should be. HDTV saturation is at something like 30%. Of that 30%, less than half are watching any HD content at all. And these are the early adopters, people you would expect to have the most interest if for no other reason than to justify their purchase.

You often see people trying to draw parallels between the rollout of DVD and HDDVD/BR--this is completely useless. Higher quality was one of many selling points for DVD, whereas its pretty much the only selling point for HDDVD/BR. Replacing bulky, antique VHS tapes with sleek shiny discs was an exciting move for consumers. Replacing one disc for another--not so much. For the first time you have interactive multimedia coming to the television that's mainstream and affordable. etc. etc. The point is that there were tons of reasons for people to upgrade to DVD that aren't there with this next generation technology.

ack, I've got to get back to work, but another quick point first. Only 30% of households have HDTVs. So that's your ceiling. Obviously that's going to keep going up, but even if it was 100%, your ceiling for HD/BR sales would still be lower than it was for DVD because those old SDTVs are going to hang around for years as secondary sets, in kitchens, kids rooms, offices, etc.--and they aren't going to be outfitted with any next generation technology.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

I don't guess they've announced any prices yet, but all the speculation I can find is just that it will be cheaper that the BR players currently on the market. Even if (best case scenario) they match the low-end HD DVD players on price, I don't see a Duraband BR player being a more attractive option to consumers than a Toshiba HD DVD for the same or less.

The lowest price HD-DVD player this fall will likely be the Toshiba model at $249.99. The Venturer model is coming out at $249.99 as well, but most retailers are choosing to carry the Toshiba model instead (for good reason). The cheapest BR player will likely come in at $299.99 for the holiday season.

Originally Posted by ThunderingHERD

Only 30% of households have HDTVs. So that's your ceiling. Obviously that's going to keep going up, but even if it was 100%, your ceiling for HD/BR sales would still be lower than it was for DVD because those old SDTVs are going to hang around for years as secondary sets, in kitchens, kids rooms, offices, etc.--and they aren't going to be outfitted with any next generation technology.

That's not totally accurate concerning the 'ceiling'. There are people who are buying PS3's and 360's to use on SDTV's (remember the complaints, especially from the EU, about unreadable text on 360 games on SDTV's). Granted, that's a small number, but it should be noted. Also, 1 in 3 consumers are interested in buying or requesting a HDTV as a gift this holiday season and 6% want a HD media player according to recent market research. There's going to be a huge surge in HDTV's this fall. Your 30% number will be way off by the end of December. With that said, mass acceptance of the media will likely not occur until next year sometime when the prices fall to a lower level. It's still very much a niche product this holiday season.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Dawgfan,

Here's some more info from yesterday's conference detailing the size of the market.

A couple points:

1) I think it's more relevant to look at sales of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD disks compared to DVD disks - most people that are going to have DVD players already have one, so sales of DVD players is mostly limited to replacement players, 2nd (or 3rd) players for a different location in the house, or upgrading to new features (like up-conversion), whereas anyone interested in Blu-Ray or HD-DVD are buying their first player;

2) Even considering the differences in buying decisions between DVD players and Blu-Ray or HD-DVD players, 5% of the market for player sales is still very low

I still see a market that is in its infancy, and any claims of which format will win are exceedingly premature.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

A couple points:

1) I think it's more relevant to look at sales of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD disks compared to DVD disks - most people that are going to have DVD players already have one, so sales of DVD players is mostly limited to replacement players, 2nd (or 3rd) players for a different location in the house, or upgrading to new features (like up-conversion), whereas anyone interested in Blu-Ray or HD-DVD are buying their first player;

2) Even considering the differences in buying decisions between DVD players and Blu-Ray or HD-DVD players, 5% of the market for player sales is still very low

I still see a market that is in its infancy, and any claims of which format will win are exceedingly premature.

Agree with everything you stated here. Just wanted to give the info since you asked.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Lots of news in the HD media market........

Warner continues to edge closer to becoming a BR-exclusive company. Warner president indicated that 70% of their HD media sales are on BR and they don't have much reason to make HD-DVD's at this point.

Paramount is coming under fire for inflating sales figures for Transformers on HD-DVD in its press release. Paramount claimed a figure between 160-190K, but it appears that Nielsen will put the total at around 90K.

Wal-Mart will now carry a HD-DVD machine for $199. Sears will offer a $169 HD-DVD player on Black Friday. BR players are expected to be at the $300 price point for the holidays.

Multiple movie studios executives are claiming that Microsoft is directly funding Toshiba to help draw out the format war. Microsoft is hoping that the format war will stalemate, which they hope would allow them to create downloadable content which has a greater profit margin for them.

[Bee]

It will be interesting to see what happens at the press conference Warner is holding tomorrow. Some think that BR sales will be enough to persuade them to go BR exclusive. Others are looking at an announcement the day after their BDA membership expiring and the recent Walmart announcements of cheap HD-DVD players as indicating an HD-DVD exclusive announcement (their logic being that Warner wouldn't want to piss off Walmart since they sell 40% of all DVDs). Then I've also seen a lot of people thinking it's going to amount to nothing and another announcement from Warner that they will continue support for both formats and the whole thing was just a way to try to get a big payout from one group or the other.

In any case, it should be interesting and if Warner goes exclusive it's going to be a major blow to one format or the other.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

It will be interesting to see what happens at the press conference Warner is holding tomorrow. Some think that BR sales will be enough to persuade them to go BR exclusive. Others are looking at an announcement the day after their BDA membership expiring and the recent Walmart announcements of cheap HD-DVD players as indicating an HD-DVD exclusive announcement (their logic being that Warner wouldn't want to piss off Walmart since they sell 40% of all DVDs). Then I've also seen a lot of people thinking it's going to amount to nothing and another announcement from Warner that they will continue support for both formats and the whole thing was just a way to try to get a big payout from one group or the other.

In any case, it should be interesting and if Warner goes exclusive it's going to be a major blow to one format or the other.

I really don't think that Warner will be supporting both much longer. Warner's exec made some pretty pointed comments in this article that they would not continue to support both formats much longer.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_id=11449

The gloves are off. Backers of the high-definition Blu-ray Disc format are staging a two-day offensive in Hollywood this week, touting their triumphs and offering previews of upcoming releases such as Cars, Ratatouille, the “Die Hard” movies, Dirty Dancing and Spider-Man 3 to a crowd of more than 50 influential print and online journalists.

The event, which concludes Tuesday, could be seen as a guns-blazing pre-emptive strike against the rival HD DVD camp, which almost simultaneously got a boost from Wal-Mart and other retailers, which reportedly began selling HD DVD players for just less than $200. That is expected to give the HD DVD format a significant boost, particularly in the wake of Paramount Home Entertainment’s defection several weeks ago from the Blu-ray side.

The so-called “Blu-ray Festival” coincides with the launch of a new branding and consumer education campaign, with the tagline “I Do Blu,” that premiered Oct. 28 during the final game of the World Series.

Both the campaign and the festival, the latter orchestrated by Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment, underscore growing sentiments, backed by research, that consumers are largely indifferent to high-definition discs and turned off even more by the presence of two incompatible formats.

To combat this, Blu-ray backers are stepping up the rhetoric and courting the press, particularly the new vanguard of online Web sites, bloggers and discussion boards that cater to the early adopters who historically have set trends the masses have followed.

“It’s a great idea,” said Ron Epstein, a founder of the Home Theater Forum, which is celebrating its 10th anniversary. “The early adopters are all on the Internet — that’s where they find their information. And there’s a certain brand new, just happened element.”

“These are the people who are regularly covering technological advances in home entertainment,” said Steve Feldstein, SVP of marketing and corporate communications for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “They are at the forefront of the format, as are their readers.”

Representatives of all the Blu-ray-exclusive studios — Lionsgate, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment and Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment — were in attendance at the Monday morning opening breakfast, as were key executives with supporting consumer electronics manufacturers such as Sony, Philips and Panasonic.

Also there was Dan Silverberg, VP of high-definition media for Warner Home Video, which since Paramount’s move to the HD DVD camp is the only studio to support both next-generation formats.

That may not be for long, Silverberg said. “One thing that may be changing is our strategy,” he said. “When both formats launched and hardware prices were high, we made a decision to support both formats and let the consumer decide. But now that hardware pricing is affordable for both Blu-ray and HD DVD, it appears consumers no longer want to decide — so the notion of staying in two formats for the duration is something we are re-evaluating now that we are in the fourth quarter.”

Silverberg noted that Warner has the top-selling Blu-ray title of all time with 300 and is consistently No. 1 or No. 2 in both Blu-ray sales market share and in number of Blu-ray titles in the market.

“We can definitely talk Blu-ray,” he said. “We are committed to the format.” At the Monday morning kickoff, the featured speaker was David Berman, director of Home Theater Specialists of America (HTSA), a buying consortium of 62 dealers and 800 installers with combined revenue of more than half a billion dollars a year. He said the HTSA supports Blu-ray because a member survey found 92% favoring Blu-ray over HD DVD.

The press was given a fact sheet of more statistics and Blu-ray milestones, including the fact that even in a week in which Transformers came out on HD DVD and with no comparable title in its lineup, Blu-ray Discs still managed to outsell discs in the rival format. So far this year, Blu-ray titles have outsold HD DVD titles by a 2-to-1 margin. Since inception, Blu-ray software sales have accounted for 61% of high-def disc software sales. And 17 of the 20 top-selling high-definition disc titles are available on Blu-ray.

There also were indications that the Blu-ray camp is done playing nice. At the entrance to the opening breakfast, at the Hollywood and Highland complex, was a huge blowup of a Deadline Hollywood article by renegade online columnist Nikki Finke. The article raised questions about Paramount Home Entertainment’s claim that it sold 190,000 copies of Transformers on HD DVD in a single week.

Later in the day, on the 20th Century Fox lot, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment president Mike Dunn blasted Paramount for its defection, accusing the studio of “taking the bait,” referring to a reported $50 million payout to drop its support of Blu-ray Disc and release titles exclusively in HD DVD.

Dunn also intimated that the format war is being perpetuated by Microsoft in the hopes of confusing consumers so much they don’t support either format and ultimately buy their entertainment online. He didn’t name the computer giant by name, but blasted “the orchestrated campaigns of confusion and anti-consumerism fueled by an 800-pound gorilla that would prefer to force us all into the practice of paying tolls for the right to exchange information and enjoy entertainment.”

Fox also previewed several Blu-ray Disc titles still in development, including I, Robot, Independence Day and Sunshine, which will be released early next year and boast picture-in-picture, audio mixing and other groundbreaking interactive features.

[Bee]

I don't pretend to know what Warner will do, I was just commenting what I have been reading on the discussions about it and there are quite a few people who seem to think it's just going to be a reconfirming of supporting both formats. Everyone who is backing one side or the other are posting quotes like the one you made which indicates they are leaning one way or the other and some people seem to think it's all just typical spin. Personally, I don't really care which way it goes. I'm still going to wait until one format or the other is completely dead or until dual format players are reasonably priced.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

I don't pretend to know what Warner will do, I was just commenting what I have been reading on the discussions about it and there are quite a few people who seem to think it's just going to be a reconfirming of supporting both formats. Everyone who is backing one side or the other are posting quotes like the one you made which indicates they are leaning one way or the other and some people seem to think it's all just typical spin. Personally, I don't really care which way it goes. I'm still going to wait until one format or the other is completely dead or until dual format players are reasonably priced.

Warner is likely in much the same situation as Paramount was. The sales for them thus far are 2:1 in favor of Blu-ray. Do they take the format that is selling well or do they possibly take a cash payout from Toshiba (which is another rumor being floated) to switch over to HD-DVD? We'll just have to wait and see.

[SackAttack]

I honestly don't care which way Warner goes unless their classic library gets the HD treatment one hell of a lot faster than it did on DVD.

If the Bogarts and Cagneys take forever to show up, it isn't really going to matter to me which format they show up on, in other words.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I honestly don't care which way Warner goes unless their classic library gets the HD treatment one hell of a lot faster than it did on DVD.

If the Bogarts and Cagneys take forever to show up, it isn't really going to matter to me which format they show up on, in other words.

I'm just the opposite of that. I could care less if they remaster old movies. A upconverted DVD version is just fine with me on the classics. Just give me more new movies.

[SackAttack]

Yeah, see, the problem is, I don't really GIVE a shit about their new movies.

The only thing Warner has that I really care about at all is their archive.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Yeah, see, the problem is, I don't really GIVE a shit about their new movies.

The only thing Warner has that I really care about at all is their archive.

Very true. If they don't have any good new releases, I'd rather they not release them.

[Daimyo]

Lots of sub-$200 HD-DVD player deals going on now! Wal-Mart had a limited sale of the Toshiba HD-A2 model for $99 yesterday and there are several places selling the Toshiba HD-A3 for $200 (including a Best Buy deal that includes 9 free HD-DVDs). Sears apparently will have the HD-A3 for $160 on Black Friday.

[Atocep]

Sony's CEO doesn't sound too optimistic about Blu-Ray.

Also looks like they have a CEO thats realistic rather than someone that thinks Sony is on top simply because they should be and continues to make an ass out of himself in public because of it.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6182612...stnews;title;2

Sony's PlayStation 3 console also allows gamers to play Blu-ray movies, in competition with the HD DVD format favoured by Microsoft.

The two have been locked in their own format war, fighting to be the consumer's choice after the current favourite, DVD. HD DVD is backed by Toshiba and Microsoft, Blu-ray by Sony and Panasonic.

In June, major video rental store Blockbuster said it would be opting for Blu-ray in stores, and many would not be selling the HD DVD format at all. The company cited the fact that the PlayStation 3 uses Blu-ray as one of the reasons for its decision. In August, it was reported that Blu-ray was outselling HD DVD by 2-to-1.

However, also in August, major motion picture company Paramount Pictures decided to back HD DVD, and ceased production of most of its Blu-ray movies.

Howard Stringer, Sony's CEO, told the AP news agency that he believes the two formats are now at a stalemate, "It's been a difficult fight. We were trying to win on the merits, which we were doing for a while, until Paramount changed sides." However, Stringer said that he believed it was mainly a matter of prestige, and that it would ultimately not matter which format won out in the end.

He also said that he wished he could travel back in time to before he was made CEO of the company, when he believes there was a chance to unite the camps into one format.

The bolded part is interesting. They basically admit they sacrificed their market share in the gaming industry for no reason at all now.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The bolded part is interesting. They basically admit they sacrificed their market share in the gaming industry for no reason at all now.

The only point he's making in the bolded comment is that they tried to win on merits (i.e. the fact that the Blu-ray disc is the better technological format). They didn't admit anything related to game consoles. Stringer is known for making stupid comments. He'll likely offer up some other stupid comment in a couple of days to fix this one. Sales figures all heavily favor Blu-ray. As Stringer correctly pointed out, the only reason for the stalemate is Paramount's move that only delays the move to one format or the other.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Sales figures all heavily favor Blu-ray.

We'll see how much the movie sales figures change the next couple of months, as 90,000 HD-DVD players were sold last weekend when Toshiba dropped the price.

hxxp://gear.ign.com/articles/833/833480p1.html

90,000 HD-DVD Players Sold Last Weekend
$99 price point hits a sweet spot.

November 7, 2007 - Last week the big news was the fact that dedicated HD-DVD players, specifically Toshiba's HD-A2 model, had finally fallen to price points below $200, an event long expected to make a big difference in the format's battle with significantly more expensive Blu-ray hardware. Towards the end of last week, however, major retailers like Wal-Mart and Best Buy were suddenly spurred to clear out their stock of Toshiba HD-A2s, apparently in preparation for the arrival of the new HD-A3 model. What resulted for roughly four days was a retail price war in which hardware prices fell far below the newly lowered $200 price point.

From Friday to Sunday, Wal-Mart and Best Buy each sold HD-A2 units for roughly $99. Over the course of those days, more than 90,000 units were sold, a major growth spurt for the format's installation base.

With the sales over and HD-A2 stock cleared, retailers are now offering the newer Toshiba HD-A3 HD-DVD players. While their list price is $299, most major retailers are expected to be selling the players below $200 through the holidays.

Plus, here's some data from NetFlix that shows the rental numbers reversed from the sales figures, and just how miniscule the next gen market is, as only 0.3% of rentals are BD or HDDVD.

hxxp://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=9202

Netflix Statistics Show HD DVD More Popular Than Blu-ray Disc

HD DVD more than twice as popular than Blu-ray Disc at Netflix

One often overlooked statistic when comparing the two main high-definition optical formats is rentals. While Blu-ray Disc movies have consistently sold more units than HD DVD at retail, the popularity of the formats appear to be reversed in the rental market.

According to Netflix data gathered by Compete’s online traffic metrics, HD DVD is the preferred high-def format for customers of the largest online rental firm in the U.S. Netflix users that deliberately set a particular format as preferred chose HD DVD by a factor of 2.4:1 when compared to Blu-ray Disc favorers.

Strangely, the Blu-ray Disc section had 1.8 times more browsers of the selection than the HD DVD section. But of those consumers who looked at high-def discs, browsers of HD DVD were 4.4 times more likely to set it as their preferred format as compared to Blu-ray Disc. Furthermore, the HD DVD format saw greater growth numbers than Blu-ray Disc over the June to August period observed.

Before any conclusions are drawn about what this may mean in the ongoing high-definition format war, both HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc combined are barely a blip on the home video radar. Of the 14 million monthly visitors to Netflix, only 0.3 percent viewed either of the high-def formats.

The Netflix data runs contrary to the other major rental powerhouse in the U.S. In June, Blockbuster chose to stock only Blu-ray Disc movies for rental across 1,450 stores nationwide. At the time of the announcement, Blockbuster said that its customers were choosing Blu-ray Disc over HD DVD 70 percent of the time.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The only point he's making in the bolded comment is that they tried to win on merits (i.e. the fact that the Blu-ray disc is the better technological format). They didn't admit anything related to game consoles. Stringer is known for making stupid comments. He'll likely offer up some other stupid comment in a couple of days to fix this one. Sales figures all heavily favor Blu-ray. As Stringer correctly pointed out, the only reason for the stalemate is Paramount's move that only delays the move to one format or the other.

Maybe I should have just bolded the last sentence of that part.

He admits that it doesn't matter who will win the format war in the end and it comes down to prestige right now. Everyone can agree that Sony sacrficed their gaming market share to get Blu-Ray out there. If it is about prestige right now then they sarcrificed that market share for no reason. That isn't a twisting of words, its simply putting 1 and 1 together.

Regardless of how much blu-ray is outselling HD-DVD by, the format hasn't caught on as much as Sony or Toshiba planned and its debatable as to whether or not its going to matter in the end. His comments aren't stupid, they're realistic.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

We'll see how much the movie sales figures change the next couple of months, as 90,000 HD-DVD players were sold last weekend when Toshiba dropped the price.

hxxp://gear.ign.com/articles/833/833480p1.html



Plus, here's some data from NetFlix that shows the rental numbers reversed from the sales figures, and just how miniscule the next gen market is, as only 0.3% of rentals are BD or HDDVD.

hxxp://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=9202

Two points there.

1. The 90,000 HD-DVD players were sold at $99 as a closeout because they're trying to liquidate those players. You think those same people that wouldn't buy them until they were $99 are going to buy a bunch of HD-DVD's at $35 a pop? I don't think so.

2. The Netflix article you cited is propaganda at it's finest. The only thing they cited was that a lot of Netflix users prefer the HD-DVD format. There's no sales or rental numbers that back up any of the claims made in that article. Sales and rental numbers YTD overall continue to favor Blu-ray at a 67/33 clip in North America. That ratio is 80/20 in Europe and 93/7 in Japan.

[Bee]

The 90K in HD-DVD players could have a pretty big impact considering that HD-DVD players has an attachment rate of about 5 times that of Bluray

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

The 90K in HD-DVD players could have a pretty big impact considering that HD-DVD players has an attachment rate of about 5 times that of Bluray

But that's exactly my point. Will the attach rate be any good amongst consumers who wouldn't buy until the price point was $99? I'm not sure it will. The numbers this week actually favored Blu-ray by a wider margin than usual despite those new players entering the market on the HD-DVD side. Certainly, the holiday season will help sort of that out.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

1. The 90,000 HD-DVD players were sold at $99 as a closeout because they're trying to liquidate those players. You think those same people that wouldn't buy them until they were $99 are going to buy a bunch of HD-DVD's at $35 a pop? I don't think so.

They don't have to buy a bunch of HD-DVDs to make a huge impact, just one or two per player. When the top selling next gen title is a little over 10K units per week, and the next nine of the top 10 barely another 10K combined, even if every new consumer just bought one movie, that will have a huge impact. You honestly aren't trying to say that people are buying HD-DVD players, but not buying HD-DVD movies, are you?

[Bee]

Originally Posted by cartman

They don't have to buy a bunch of HD-DVDs to make a huge impact, just one or two per player. When the top selling next gen title is a little over 10K units per week, and the next nine of the top 10 barely another 10K combined, even if every new consumer just bought one movie, that will have a huge impact. You honestly aren't trying to say that people are buying HD-DVD players, but not buying HD-DVD movies, are you?

You got to give him credit for trying to spin it as much as he can.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Bee

The 90K in HD-DVD players could have a pretty big impact considering that HD-DVD players has an attachment rate of about 5 times that of Bluray

If you compare stand-alone players, the attachment rate is pretty equal. The BR numbers are brought down by the number of PS3s that were purchased to simply play games, not watch movies.

[Bee]

BTW, I agree totally with Atocep. Who wins the war is meaningless and it's interesting that Sony is now admitting that the whole thing is just a matter of prestige. They really blew it in my opinion by sacrificing the US console market for what amounts to nothing.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

They don't have to buy a bunch of HD-DVDs to make a huge impact, just one or two per player. When the top selling next gen title is a little over 10K units per week, and the next nine of the top 10 barely another 10K combined, even if every new consumer just bought one movie, that will have a huge impact. You honestly aren't trying to say that people are buying HD-DVD players, but not buying HD-DVD movies, are you?

Actually, I had two friends who sprang for the player. They just plan on using it as a nice upconverter for now. Hard to debate that given the price.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Actually, I had two friends who sprang for the player. They just plan on using it as a nice upconverter for now. Hard to debate that given the price.

I have 18 friends who bought it with the intention of buying every HD movie under the sun.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Logan

I have 18 friends who bought it with the intention of buying every HD movie under the sun.

that's an odd number to come up with

I'd buy "several" or even 20. You are very thorough.

[Logan]

I originally went with "eleventy billion" but decided to tone down the hyperbole.

[AZSpeechCoach]

Originally Posted by Bee

BTW, I agree totally with Atocep. Who wins the war is meaningless and it's interesting that Sony is now admitting that the whole thing is just a matter of prestige. They really blew it in my opinion by sacrificing the US console market for what amounts to nothing.

Am I wrong to think that Sony was looking to win the licensing fees that would roll in if Blu-Ray won the next-gen war? I think it is a bit more than prestige involved, no matter what Stringer said. If Blu-Ray loses, Toshiba will gain potential billions in fees. Or am I off base?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Shouldn't this thread be retitled "Paramount to go HD-DVD exclusive"?

And how is it possible to spin this as anything other than bad news.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by AZSpeechCoach

Am I wrong to think that Sony was looking to win the licensing fees that would roll in if Blu-Ray won the next-gen war? I think it is a bit more than prestige involved, no matter what Stringer said. If Blu-Ray loses, Toshiba will gain potential billions in fees. Or am I off base?

I'm guessing that the studio's etc. have negotiated hard ball with both Sony and Microsoft and any 'royalties' which would be forthcoming from this are now either non-existant or fairly small, if one had won in a landslide then they'd have made out like bandits but theyve been played against each other for long enough to decay any business advantage they might have had.

(simply put both Sony & Msoft have been desperate to get studio's in their 'camp' and I guess have negotiated exceptions to royalties to do so)

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

I'm guessing that the studio's etc. have negotiated hard ball with both Sony and Microsoft and any 'royalties' which would be forthcoming from this are now either non-existant or fairly small, if one had won in a landslide then they'd have made out like bandits but theyve been played against each other for long enough to decay any business advantage they might have had.

(simply put both Sony & Msoft have been desperate to get studio's in their 'camp' and I guess have negotiated exceptions to royalties to do so)

I believe what you are saying is correct except that Microsoft is a pretty minor player on the HD-DVD side. It's more like Sony vs Toshiba. While Microsoft backed HD-DVD, they really don't have all that much invested. I suspect they are more than happy with what Stringer calls a stalemate and was backing HD-DVD more as a counter to Sony in the console war than trying to win the format war. Basically I think they were trying to force Sony to fight battles on two fronts, which they have and that's causing them to lose the console war and have a stalemate on the format war.

[INDalltheway]

I sure hope Mizzou gets paid by Sony for his efforts...

[Galaril]

So, basically if I was going to buy a next gen DVD palyer not a gaming machine which one is the best way to go? Blu-ray, HD-DVD or is it too early to tell. Are any studios exclusive to one format or not anymore?

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So, basically if I was going to buy a next gen DVD palyer not a gaming machine which one is the best way to go? Blu-ray, HD-DVD or is it too early to tell. Are any studios exclusive to one format or not anymore?

Each format has studios currently exclusive to it, and it is still impossible to predict which format will win or if there will ever be a winner.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Galaril

So, basically if I was going to buy a next gen DVD palyer not a gaming machine which one is the best way to go? Blu-ray, HD-DVD or is it too early to tell. Are any studios exclusive to one format or not anymore?

Before MBBF chimes in, here's my take.

If you are just looking for a pure next-gen player, then go with the lowest priced player. There is no difference in picture quality that I can tell between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. There are some studios that claim exclusivity, but the titles are easily found in both formats.

However, I have seen a Blu-Ray title optimized for 24Hz on a Sony Bravia at 120Hz, and it does look stunning, since most movies are filmed at 24fps, and this is the closest approximation in home theater you can get. But this is limited to only a few titles, and the $800 Blu-Ray player coupled with a +$2500 Sony Bravia TV.

So at this point, I'd go with price, and in that case, HD-DVD is the easy call.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

Before MBBF chimes in, here's my take.

If you are just looking for a pure next-gen player, then go with the lowest priced player. There is no difference in picture quality that I can tell between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. There are some studios that claim exclusivity, but the titles are easily found in both formats.

However, I have seen a Blu-Ray title optimized for 24Hz on a Sony Bravia at 120Hz, and it does look stunning, since most movies are filmed at 24fps, and this is the closest approximation in home theater you can get. But this is limited to only a few titles, and the $800 Blu-Ray player coupled with a +$2500 Sony Bravia TV.

So at this point, I'd go with price, and in that case, HD-DVD is the easy call.

Just as important is the list of titles. Pick the system that has the titles that you are interested in. Warner is the only major studio that is neutral. Paramount and Universal are exclusively HD-DVD with all of the other major studios publishing exclusively on Blu-ray. Price is certainly an important factor, but it's only about $100 difference currently on the base line models ($199 HD-DVD vs. $299 Blu-ray). If you purchase one player only to find that the movies you like are exclusive to the other player, it doesn't do you a whole lot of good. So certainly take a look at the libraries exclusive to each player before making your decision.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Just as important is the list of titles. Pick the system that has the titles that you are interested in. Warner is the only major studio that is neutral. Paramount and Universal are exclusively HD-DVD with all of the other major studios publishing exclusively on Blu-ray. Price is certainly an important factor, but it's only about $100 difference currently on the base line models ($199 HD-DVD vs. $299 Blu-ray). If you purchase one player only to find that the movies you like are exclusive to the other player, it doesn't do you a whole lot of good. So certainly take a look at the libraries exclusive to each player before making your decision.

I guess I will wait since I have already invested in 600-700 dvd video collection and don't want to waste my time and find out at some point 200 dvds later that one of my favorite movie series is supported by the other format only. I can't believe the movie studios, actors, producers, etc thought this was agood idea. Thye should definitely of got there act together and figured it out but I guess in like 6-7 years down the road one of these formats will be become te Macs od dvd players and than I will buy one. I just don't see this as being that big of a deal with the difference in quality even on a LCD TV. I like movies but the graphics aren't the most important thing. If I want to see near theater quality graphics/cinematography I guess I will just go to the theater.Thanks anyways for the info.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Here's the current Nielsen numbers for the HD formats. BR holds a 64% share for YTD and 61% for overal since inception.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/11/09...ding-november/

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I guess I will wait since I have already invested in 600-700 dvd video collection and don't want to waste my time and find out at some point 200 dvds later that one of my favorite movie series is supported by the other format only. I can't believe the movie studios, actors, producers, etc thought this was agood idea. Thye should definitely of got there act together and figured it out but I guess in like 6-7 years down the road one of these formats will be become te Macs od dvd players and than I will buy one. I just don't see this as being that big of a deal with the difference in quality even on a LCD TV. I like movies but the graphics aren't the most important thing. If I want to see near theater quality graphics/cinematography I guess I will just go to the theater.Thanks anyways for the info.

Movie studios were pushing Sony and Toshiba to come to some sort of agreement on one format, but both were stubborn and thought they'd win the format war easily. Or at least much faster than its going to end up taking.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Bee

The 90K in HD-DVD players could have a pretty big impact considering that HD-DVD players has an attachment rate of about 5 times that of Bluray

Originally Posted by Bee

You got to give him credit for trying to spin it as much as he can.

You might want to check your data before you fire away about my 'spin'. The attachment rate that you cited appears to be without merit and under fire by multiple media outlets. In order to create the attach rate you mentioned, the HD-DVD group included the PS3's as a Blu-ray player. This obviously creates a quandry for the HD-DVD group, which has previously not included the PS3 as a HD player in its install base numbers. The fact that the HD-DVD group also refuses to release the hard numbers behind their attach rate claims has further fueled the fire.

Here's an article from a neutral site on the situation...............

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2007/11...les_challenge/

Euro HD DVD camp clams up on format sales figures
By Tony Smith
14th November 2007 11:22 GMT

Editors' Blog The European HD DVD Promotional Group has refused to back up claims that the next-generation optical disc format it's backing is the movie buff's favourite by revealing how many HD DVD players have been bought over here.

Register Hardware asked it this question because earlier this week the organisation announced that numbers garnered independently by local market watcher GfK showed that 3.8 HD DVD discs have been sold for every player purchased in the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and the Benelux countries.

By contrast, only 0.6 Blu-ray Discs have been sold for every BD-capable player and console bought in those regions.

So HD DVD is the most popular format then? Well, not necessarily - it all depends on the number of units of each type of playback device that have been sold.

Yes, HD DVD backers may, on average, have purchased 3.8 discs each. But if there are only a hundred of them, that's just 380 discs. If Sony has shipped more than a million PlayStation 3s in Europe, that's 600,000 discs - rather more than 380.

Now which is the most popular format, in terms of disc sales?

Of course, rather more than 100 HD DVD playback devices have been sold in Europe to date, but the it's very telling that the European HD DVD PG won't say how many.

"Unfortunately, we aren’t releasing total sales numbers because we feel that it is early days for both formats compared to DVD," a European HD DVD PG spokeswoman told us.

In short, the organisation doesn't want comparisons being drawn with 'old technology' DVD sales, let alone its rival HD format.

Its unwillingness to release hard data leads us to believe that right now the vast majority of European consumers are not interested in HD DVD. They're probably not interested in Blu-ray either, but so big has been the take up of the PS3, in comparison to HD DVD, that it's building momentum. The upcoming cheap, 40GB PS3 will only drive this trend harder.

Register Hardware is bi-partisan - we can see advantages and failings in both formats. But if the European HD DVD Promotional Group really is confident its format will be successful, it should have the courage to come clean on the numbers. That it doesn't, speaks volumes.

[cartman]

So, the PS3 shouldn't count as a Blu-Ray player when calculating attachment rate? That sounds like more of a quandry for Sony, since it appears that their gambit to trojan horse the Blu-Ray format in the PS3 is backfiring.

Sure it might be marketing spin for HD-DVD to use stand-alone players in one calculation and not in another, but the raw numbers are out there for interpretation and both sides are using them to spin so their format looks the best.

Blu-Ray likes to tout percentages, because the number of title sales is still massively dwarfed by DVD sales. 61% to 39% sounds like a massive lead for Blu-Ray until you factor in DVD sales, then it changes to 99% DVD-0.51% BR-0.49% HD-DVD

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

Sure it might be marketing spin for HD-DVD to use stand-alone players in one calculation and not in another, but the raw numbers are out there for interpretation and both sides are using them to spin so their format looks the best.

That's the whole point of the article. The raw numbers for HD-DVD aren't even available. The HD-DVD group refuses to release them. Why? You figure it out. Show me where Sony has failed to present all the information......

Number of PS3's? Available.
Number of stand-alone BR players? Available.
Number of BR movies sold? Available.

Certainly, presentation of information plays a factor in any marketing campaign, but the HD-DVD group refuses to even present the data that they use to come to their conclusion.

[stevew]

According to Fat Wallet, on friday Wal Mart is running the following special:
Buy the HDA2 for 198 and get 5 free HDDVD's instantly
-or-
Buy the HDA3 for 298 and get 300/Bourne Identity(packed in box) and 5 other movies free instantly.

Plus there is still a MIR for 5 more HDDVD's

Seems like a helluva deal if you were thinking about getting the player, although I have no idea how the HDDVD selection is at my store. It probably sucks balls.

As far as what the difference between the HDA2 and 3 is, I have no idea. The HDA2 was 99.xx at a previous sale, this is almost as good assuming you can find the movies you want.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by cartman

You honestly aren't trying to say that people are buying HD-DVD players, but not buying HD-DVD movies, are you?

Certainly some interesting news on this front, as it appears that my statement that the sale of $99 HD-DVD players in November wouldn't result in more HD-DVD sales is ringing true. Since the sale of over 90,000 HD-DVD players through Wal-Mart in mid-November, the movie sales margin has increased from a 70/30 margin to a 75/25 movie sales margin in favor of Blu-ray. Even more interesting is that HD-DVD was the only format with an exclusive title released during that time (Shrek the Third), yet Blu-ray expanded its lead during that same period. Also, Paramount was criticized by industry writers when it was found that they overinflated the opening week sales numbers of the HD-DVD version of 'Transformers: The Movie' by nearly 70,000 units.

Most industry editorials believe that the influx of the PS3 as a Blu-ray player may have far more of an effect on the movie sales market than Toshiba is letting on. Toshiba has to be concerned at this point that they sold quite a few players on what basically amounted to a fire sale, yet the Blu-ray movie sales numbers continue to outpace the HD-DVD movie sales by an expanding margin.

[cartman]

Well considering the Wal-Mart sold the $99 players, and that the VideoScan numbers don't include Wal-Mart title sales, it is not surprising that those figures didn't show a bump.

[TroyF]

Until either HD-DVD or Blu Ray become relevant, I'm not sure it matters who "wins" I think it's getting more and more likely by the day that there is no winner in the format. Blu Ray will sell more and "win" the battle. Odds are, the online aspect will beat it out before either truly grabs a foothold.

The article I read stated that 4 million HD DVS/Blu Ray discs had been sold this year. (through September 30) Transformers sld 3.8 million regular DVD's in the first week it was out. The HD DVD fanboys were raving about the fact Transformers sold 190k copies in the first week, breaking records for a debut for either Blu Ray or HD DVD.

Sinse then the numbers have been debated and a lot of people think they were pushed up. Let's just say they were accurate for a second. 3.8 million vs. 190k.

The first Blu Ray players were out in June of 06. The first HD DVD players were out in April of 06. We are quickly approaching two years and outside of some tech geeks, nobody gives a crap about who "wins" this war. That gigantic yawn you hear is the public saying "enough already, I'm happy with my DVD player, leave me the hell alone"

The solution, of course, will be to release $50 HD DVD and Blu Ray players and hope someone gives a damn. (Wal Mart sold 90k HD DVD players in November? I bet their sales of regular DVD players were 5 to 10x that number) I've been a tech geek for a long, long time and this war has to be one of the most boring I have ever followed.