Baseball Offseason 2004-5 Thread

[Crapshoot]

I'd take Webb for Zito straight up. Of course, given this Joe JR, he'd probably throw in Chad Tracy and Connor Jackson straight up..

[Ksyrup]

I'm surprised Oakland kept Zito. He seemed to be the one of the three who was headed on a downward slide.

[ISiddiqui]

He probably couldn't get the future ace that Hudson and Mulder could.

Oh, in other news, ESPN is reporting that Milton Bradley and Odalis Perez have resigned with the Dodgers.

[Bomber]

Does Zito have similar injury concerns as Mulder and Hudson? Out of the three I'd move Mulder and Hudson first. Hudson is going to be free agent and he probably couldn't have been re-signed, and Mulder had a horrible second half and had hip problems, his value might be lower at the end of the year compared to now.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

Glaus, Clayton, and Counsell are going to be big upgrades defensively?

Maybe a few years ago. None are stellar defensively now.

Using Clay Davenports Fielding Runs Above Average stat, Glaus has been below average in every season but two in his career, most recently 3 years ago. With his injury status, I think you're looking at Hillenbrand-esque defense at 3B, at best.

I agree that Glaus is the biggest defensive questionmark. But Hillenbrand and Tracy combined for 28 errors! at 3B with both having very subpar arms. 3B is more on reaction time and arm than range. Look at a guy like Rolen who isn't exactly the most nimble guy but he can field a good 3B. I think it's safe to say Glaus will do better than 28 errors and he has a much better arm.

Royce Clayton used to be very good, decline to good, then to average, and last season to bad. At age 35, I don't know what you're expecting from him. For comparison, Clayton was -12 last season. Alex Cintron was -8. So, probably not a big upgrade here.

Clayton had 9 errors in 640 chances in 04, which is better than his performances from 95-2000 and 2003. Cintron, Gill and Olson combined for 25 errors in 651 chances. Yeah, I guess that's about the same

Clayton had a banner year defensively in 04 for Colorado and Clint Hurdle (his manager) said it was the best defensive season of shortstop he had ever seen. This was after he had already left the Rockies and signed in Arizona.

Counsell had a decent season defensively last season, but for his career is about average defensively as a second baseman.

Counsell had 9 errors in 531 total chances at SS in 04. After Matt Kata went out early (VG fielder - 2 errors in 200 chances), Arizona's four-headed monster at 2B in 04 (headlined by Scott "Ten Thumbs" Hairston) combined for 17 errors in 612 chances. There's still a chance that Kata could beat out Counsell or atleast force a platoon. But either way, they will be a big upgrade over Hairston (who is now trying the outfield after his abysmal 04 performance at 2B).

At firstbase, you're looking at Green, Tracy, or Hillenbrand. Hilly's got a decent glove at 1B, but it seems like he's on the outs with the Dbacks. They haven't updated Tracy's info, but he's such a poor hitter that I doubt his glove could make up for it. Green was abysmal at 1B last season for the Dodgers, and has pretty much bounced between slightly below and slightly above average in RF.

Green is going to be the RF and Tracy will play 1B. He did better at 1B in the
minors than he did at 3rd and will be similar to Hillenbrand (another ave 1B).

Just so I get this right. Arizona is replacing a platoon that combined for 28 errors with a soft arm at 3B with a guy who was getting 16-20 errors when injured at 3B and has a very good arm. They are replacing a group that combined for 25 errors at SS with a guy who had 9 in similar chances in 04. At Second, they are using a platoon of one of the better young defensive 2B (Kata) and a guy that only had 9 errors in a full season at SS in 04. Compare that to last season when their platoon for just 3/4 of the season combined for 17 errors.

And, with all of this data, Arizona hasn't gotten any better on defense. Can I get some of what you are smokin?

I understand the need to be optimistic about your home team, but the Diamondbacks' offseason has been a huge risk/reward offseason (much like the Mariners). If Glaus stays healthy, he's a good signing (but overpaid). If Green bounces back, he's probably a good pickup. If Clayton and Counsell can stem the decline of age and mediocrity, they may perform as well as the guys they're replacing. If Ortiz finds his control, he may be able to survive the BOB.

More likely, Green or Glaus get hurt, Ortiz pitches like normal, maybe with a bit of a decline due to age and use, and Clayton/Counsell are replaced midseason by younger players.

Whoah, hold on there partner. Clayton had the best offensive (.279-8-54-.338 OBP) and defensive season in over 5 seasons in 04. That's on odd way for a player on the decline to behave. Counsell also had a better 2004 than 2003 (off and def) and continues to post OBPs in the .330 range as well. Still, I could see Matt Kata stealing time from Counsell as the season goes on as Kata is a wizard defensively and has some pop for a 2B. At any rate, he will have to beat out Counsell to get it.

Green was both 100% healthy down the stretch in 04 and posted very good numbers (Green hit .280 with 18 HR and 45 RBI after the break). Glaus is only 28 and supposedly checked out just fine - so I doubt the injuries will hurt him all that much (he did have 7 HRs and an OPS of .800 in Sept of 04).

From what I see, Arizona has added four very good major league players in Glaus, Green, Ortiz and Vazquez. They have also added another two nice upgrades over 04 in Clayton and Counsell. They are getting back three relievers that were injured in 04 and have had good careers to this point (Valverde, Koplove, Villareal) as well as another season for Greg Aquino (16 saves, .194 OAVG and 1.16 WHIP in 04). Not to mention the team will have a healthy Luis Gonzalez in 05.

Add in the fact that this new team will cost about $20 million LESS than their opening payroll on 2004. I agree that the team will be better (I don't think there's much doubt there), but I fail to see how it has been a "huge risk/reward offseason". Clayton and Counsell were signed on the cheap, the team shed over $50 mil in existing payroll and added only Glaus and Ortiz as decent investments ($45 and $33 mil). While they did add the salaries of Green and Vazquez, they got over $17 mil from LA and NYY to offset that risk.

I would say Arizona's offseason has a high ceiling without a great deal of risk. I don't think Arizona will be contending for the division in 2005, but I would expect around 80 wins and an increase of over 30 games from their 04 team. All at a salary level significantly lower than they had last season.

[CentralMassHokie]

I think we've just got 2 very different opinions about the value of counting stats vs. rate stats or sabr-type stats.

I don't put a whole lot of value in errors, as they're not adjusted for the tendencies of the pitching staff or the range of the player. I look more heavily at suff like range factor, ultimate zone rating, or the runs above average stats I mentioned earlier.

I also put a lot more weight in adjusting statistics for the park and league. Royce Clayton put up a 76 OPS+ last season. That is to say, offensively, he was 14% worse than the average hitter. Alex Cintron had a stellar 69 OPS+. The difference is that Cintron is going to be 26 next year and is one year removed from a 110 OPS+ season. Clayton is going to be 35 next year and hasn't put up a 110 OPS+ season ... ever. The last season he was even near average offensively was 1999.

Vazquez and Glaus are big improvements. Glaus is a risk, simply due to his injury history, but it's a good signing, no doubt. Vazquez is a fantastic pitcher and I think he'll find his arm slot and bounce back from a down season, assuming he doesn't get overworked.

Clayton and Counsell are useless players who are simply going to hold up the development of better players. Ortiz is a risk because he played in pitcher's parks with good offenses his entire career and is now getting paid pretty good money when he's likely to put up the worst numbers of his career.

Green's performance over the past 2 seasons has been good, but not great, and he's now moving into his year 32 season. It's unlikely he's going to be anything like he was in 2001, so the hope is that he just holds his value. That's a risk.

Like I said -- Arizona got better. Not 30 games better, but they might win 68-70 games or so. The Dbacks are far worse than the Dodgers and Padres (especially if the rumors about LA bringing back Odalis Perez are true), and are probably a good bit worse than the Giants just due to Bonds and Schmidt.

They wanted to make a splash and they did. The problem is that I think the only player who might end up still playing for the Dbacks the next time they win 90 games is Javy Vazquez.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

The Tacoma paper is reporting the M's will sign Pokey Reese to a 1-year deal for about $2M to be their starting SS, relegating top prospect Jose Lopez back to AAA Tacoma, and in a related move will sell Jolbert Cabrera to a Japanese League team. The Reese signing will likely preclude the M's from signing a free agent pitcher (Odalis Perez was reportedly their top target) and will require them to trade for a starter instead, likely using either Randy Winn or Raul Ibanez as trade bait.

I don't get this move at all. Reese is simply an awful hitter, and there's no way his glove work is good enough to make up for how bad a hitter he is. I suspect Lopez is already a better player than Reese, certainly a much better hitter, and his defense was always rated above-average in the minors. Compounding this error is the fact it seems to take the M's out of the hunt for Perez, who would've made a great addition to the M's pitching staff.

That's a lot of money for a guy basically on name value because he hasn't had above a .700 OPS since 2000. The parade of stupid moves this season moves on.

SI

[Crapshoot]

Bingo. If the D-backs finish better than 4th I will be shocked, Barry Bonds injury notwithstanding.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

That's a lot of money for a guy basically on name value because he hasn't had above a .700 OPS since 2000. The parade of stupid moves this season moves on.

SI

As it turns out, the deal is for 1 year at about $1.1M plus incentives, with a club option for a 2nd year at about the same money.

A better value, but still a lot of money for someone that can't hit.

[Chief Rum]

Lot of talk about Glaus's injury history. While there is certainly risk, given his shoulder problems, it should be noted Glaus was actually a fairly healthy player for most of his career. His injury problems the past two years have been related to the same issue--a torn labrum in his throwing arm. Reportedly, he is completely healed from that now (having finally gotten the surgery he needed in the spring), and got a clean bill of health from the D'Backs.

If his shoulder is healthy (the big question, of course), I don't know that his injury history otherwise is a legitimate concern. He is also just 28.

One thing I will agree with on Glaus by CMH--his defense is overrated and has been ever since he came up. Never underestimate his ability to completely overthrow the first baseman.

CR

[Arles]

Hey, I would be surprised if Arizona finishes above 4th as well. I think San Diego, SF and LA are all better teams right now (esp with LA signing Perez - great move for them). I am just saying that I think Arizona will finish in the 80-win level for 05 and be in a position to make a run for the division in 06. Again, I think the fact that Arizona is fielding a significantly better team in 05 at a price $20 mil less is a credit to the new front office. The old guys would have buckled and traded RJ for a AA prospect and Jason Giambi. Kendrick has made some good moves so far and seems to have gotten Arizona good value in a no-win situation involving Randy.

[CentralMassHokie]

I just don't think there will be 4 80-win teams in the NL West, when the number 1 team is probably not going to win more than 92 games.

The teams play each other, what, 19 times? If the Dbacks are worse than 3 of the other teams in the NL West, figure they maybe lose 13 to the Dodgers and Pads, and nearly split with the Giants -- that's 36 losses in the division. Let's say they're better than the Rockies -- maybe they go 12-7. You're up to 43 losses just in the division (which would be 12 games better than last season). They're definitely worse than the Astros, Cubs, Cards, Phillies, and Braves. Probably the Marlins and Mets too. I think they'll be worse then the Brewers (who've had a quietly decent offseason, combined with potentially starting to see some of their prospects play).

Even if they were to go .500 against the rest of the league, they're still going to lose 34 more games. So you're already up to 77 losses. Splitting against the AL (9 losses) and you're at 86.

So, in my mind, 76-86 is a pretty optimistic look at things. There's a good chance they won't go .500 versus the rest of the league, which I really think is going to drop them below 70 wins.

Maybe if I get some time later I'll do a runs scored/runs allowed projection.

I'm not trying to rain on your parade -- I just think that you're overrating some of the guys your team has brought in and the effect they're going to have.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

I just don't think there will be 4 80-win teams in the NL West, when the number 1 team is probably not going to win more than 92 games.

I disagree. I could see the top 4 teams in the West having 90, 87, 84 and 80 wins. SF (for 05) and AZ have gotten better while LA and SD have stayed about the same. With the age of SF being a bit of a wild card, I doubt any of the four will do all that well in the division meaning everyone will be bunched up. I'd be surprised if any team in the West breaks 90 wins.

The teams play each other, what, 19 times? If the Dbacks are worse than 3 of the other teams in the NL West, figure they maybe lose 13 to the Dodgers and Pads, and nearly split with the Giants -- that's 36 losses in the division. Let's say they're better than the Rockies -- maybe they go 12-7. You're up to 43 losses just in the division (which would be 12 games better than last season). They're definitely worse than the Astros, Cubs, Cards, Phillies, and Braves. Probably the Marlins and Mets too. I think they'll be worse then the Brewers (who've had a quietly decent offseason, combined with potentially starting to see some of their prospects play).

Even if they were to go .500 against the rest of the league, they're still going to lose 34 more games. So you're already up to 77 losses. Splitting against the AL (9 losses) and you're at 86.

So, in my mind, 76-86 is a pretty optimistic look at things. There's a good chance they won't go .500 versus the rest of the league, which I really think is going to drop them below 70 wins.

Maybe if I get some time later I'll do a runs scored/runs allowed projection.

I'm not trying to rain on your parade -- I just think that you're overrating some of the guys your team has brought in and the effect they're going to have.

None of the teams in the West are all that great. I could see Arizona going 8-11 against SD, 8-11 against LA, 9-10 against SF and 12-7 against Col. That puts them at 37-39 in the division and that four game difference from your projection puts them at about 80 wins for the season. They could very well do even better against SD and LA depending on what moves they make to finish the season (pot CF and other SP). With this team right now, I think 80 wins is on the high end, but certainly possible. If Kendrick is right and Arizona plans on adding a CF and SP to this current team - then I think 80 wins will be a fair guess at the DBacks record in 05.

[korme]

Juan Gonzalez signed a MLC with the Indians.

Gonzalez, a MLC? That might be the most shocking thing I have seen.. that is just baffling to me.

[sterlingice]

Seems fitting to me after what he did to the Royals last year.

SI

[korme]

I would like to hear that this rumor will actually go down:

Furcal for Kearns

I'm a big fan of Kearns, but we have 5 starting caliber OFs right now, so one needs to be moved.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Unmentioned as far as I can see, but as unlikely a move as anything in the off-season:
Braves sign Raul Mondesi to a 1.2m/1 yr deal, with incentives that could take it to $1.7m.

Given the franchise reluctance to have players with any personality on the roster, I don't know if any signing would have surprised me more unless the names Strawberry or Gooden were involved.

IMO, it's a sign of just how desparate the club felt about the OF situation (given Chipper has gone public with not wanting to return to LF).

[korme]

So is Chipper going back to 3B? Or 1B? Why doesn't he want to play LF, come on, be a team player.

If you moved Furcal, who would start at SS?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

So is Chipper going back to 3B? Or 1B? Why doesn't he want to play LF, come on, be a team player.

3rd, apparently.

If you moved Furcal, who would start at SS?

My guess would be Nick Green.
My suggestion would be John Smoltz
(Hey, he insisted on being a starter, he didn't necessarily say at what position)

[SoxWin]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

Juan Gonzalez signed a MLC with the Indians.

Gonzalez, a MLC? That might be the most shocking thing I have seen.. that is just baffling to me.

How much does he regret turning down that $140mil over 6 years now?

[samifan24]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

Juan Gonzalez signed a MLC with the Indians.

Gonzalez, a MLC? That might be the most shocking thing I have seen.. that is just baffling to me.

It's a win-win deal. Gonzelez's value has plummeted since his 2001 season with the Tribe, and he's struggled to stay healthy. Gonzalez will likely win a starting job, so he's playing to increase his value for next season, when he'll likely walk (or reup with the Tribe for much more money). The Indians get a cheap OF who has a potentially huge upside. If things don't work out, he's only around for a year. Even if he gets hurt like the past two years, Shapiro didn't commit boatloads of cash to him, so it's win-win for both parties involved. As an Indians fan, I couldn't be happier with the job Mark Shapiro's done this offseason.

[ISiddiqui]

The FUNNIEST rumor I heard on Atlanta sports radio recently was Furcal and John Thompson for Mark Texiaira and a prospect. It was so utterly ridiculous, I wondered how they could say it with a straight face.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The FUNNIEST rumor I heard on Atlanta sports radio recently was Furcal and John Thompson for Mark Texiaira and a prospect. It was so utterly ridiculous, I wondered how they could say it with a straight face.

Actually, that might not be as farfetched as you think.

The Rangers have another terrific first base prospect in Adrian Gonzalez ready to go. Getting Furcal will allow them to shift Young back to second, and then they can unload Soriano and his contract on a team willing to pay it. ANd likely get some much neede dpitching help for Soriano in return (alogn with Thompson, whom I believe is a starter as well, isn't he)?

It's not a case of the Rangers thinking badly of Texeira, so much as moving from a position of strength to shore up weak areas. Since Gonzalez seems like he can step right in at 1B, they could get the pitching they need and free up some payroll room as well with a deal like this.

And in the ultra competitive AL West, they will need all the pitching they can get, too.

Actually sounds like a deal that would be great for both teams, unless the Braves think LaRoche/Franco is the platoon of the future.

CR

[ISiddiqui]

But are you telling me that Texeira (and a prospect) can only get a John Thompson and Raffy Furcal? That move would just look like an utter steal for the Braves... today and in the future. Better pitchers can be had for such a stud young player.

[Chief Rum]

I don't know that I would do it, but I see odd seeming trades all the time. Consider the Estrada-Millwood deal. Everyone laughed at that then, but I'm not sure I wouldn't do that deal with hindsight on how it has turned out so far. Perhaps the Rangers see a lot of value in Thompson.

Also, Furcal isn't a bad player. He's a speedy player with some pop at a position that still traditionally doesn't have it (outside of a handful of the top players). My guess is he is at least a passable defender, too, given his skill set, although I don't actually recall at the moment how well regarded he is there. And again, remember, that from the Rangers point-of-view, they could be doing the deal to improve their pitching in other ways (trade Soriano for some, free up payroll to free room for other trades or future signings). They may be willing to let Texeira go for less if they really like those two players and see immediate dividends elsewhere on their team. And that doesn't even mention how they might feel about Adrian Gonzalez, whom would then have a regular place in the lineup.

Heck, they might even be freeing room for a run at Delgado or maybe Magglio Ordonez.

Once again, I'm not saying I would do it if I were them. But I just don't see it as so far-fetched as to dismiss it outright. That said, in the end, most of these rumors end up being utter crap anyway.

CR

[SoxWin]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

But are you telling me that Texeira (and a prospect) can only get a John Thompson and Raffy Furcal? That move would just look like an utter steal for the Braves... today and in the future. Better pitchers can be had for such a stud young player.

Texeira is FA eligible after 2006 and allegedly his long term contract demands are more then Texas wants to pay. If they wait, they may get nothing more then draft picks.

[SirFozzie]

Sheesh, no hometown discount for Clemens IF he comes back to Houston.

NEW YORK -- Roger Clemens filed for a record $22 million in salary arbitration on Tuesday, and the Houston Astros offered the seven-time Cy Young Award winner $13.5 million.

The Rocket, who helped lead the Astros within one win of their first World Series appearance, still has not decided whether to pitch this year or retire.

Until now, the highest figure ever submitted in arbitration was $18.5 million in 2001 by New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, who then agreed to a $189 million, 10-year deal.

The highest salary ever earned by a pitcher in a single season was $17.5 million, last year by Boston's Pedro Martinez.

Clemens, 42, left the Yankees after the 2003 season and intended to retire. But after former teammate Andy Pettitte signed with the Astros, Clemens was persuaded to sign with his hometown club.

He took an undermarket deal that guaranteed him $5 million, of which $3.5 million was deferred without interest until July 1, 2006. Clemens earned an additional $1,825,000 in bonuses based on his selection to the NL All-Star team and Houston's home attendance, which was more than 3.3 million, including the postseason.

The $8.5 million spread between his figure and the Astros' was exactly double the previous high in salary arbitration -- the Yankees filed at $14.25 million with Jeter in 2001. The midpoint of $17.75 million is just above the highest listed salary for a pitcher this season -- Randy Johnson's salary with the New York Yankees is calculated at $16.5 million, including a prorated share of the $1 million personal-services contract he agreed to with the Arizona Diamondbacks before he was traded.

Clemens had a remarkable season, going 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 218 strikeouts. As he did last winter, he says he is leaning toward retirement but has not ruled out playing.

Astros outfielder Lance Berkman, who is eligible for free agency after next season, asked for $11 million and the team offered $10 million.

If settlements are not reached, hearings before panels of three arbitrators will be held next month.


Roger Clemens
Starting Pitcher
Houston Astros
2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W L Sv K ERA
33 18 4 0 218 2.98

[sterlingice]

"Hi, I'm a whore. Either give me $20M or I'll retire. And if I lose my case for $22M, I'll retire. Screw you."

SI

[Crapshoot]

Hey- its the market. Last year they got essentialy free- lets not fault Clemens for suggesting that they make it worth his while to hang around.//

[SoxWin]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Hey- its the market. Last year they got essentialy free- lets not fault Clemens for suggesting that they make it worth his while to hang around.//

I see what you're saying about last year being free, but I'm not sure what bearing that has on anything. What market is paying pitchers 22 million a year? This is Rogers way of saying he has the team over a barrel and he's either going to fuck them good and hard or go home to his wife and all the kids with funny names.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

IMO, it's a sign of just how desparate the club felt about the OF situation

And yet another sign of the same desparation

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sp.../20jordan.html

Brian Jordan returning to Braves' outfield

By David O'Brien
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 01/19/05

Brian Jordan's return to the Atlanta outfield is a reality.

The team will sign the 37-year-old outfielder to a one-year contract and likely give the former Brave and Atlanta Falcon a chance to win the leftfield job this spring.

Jordan confirmed the deal Wednesday afternoon, and the team is expected to make an announcement later Wednesday.

"Everywhere I go, fans have been saying they were praying I'd get to come back and play in Atlanta," said Jordan, an Alpharetta resident who played defensive back for the Falcons from 1989-01 and outfield for the Braves from 1999-2001.

"I definitely hoped it would happen."

Jordan is a .284 career hitter with 178 home runs and 787 RBIs in parts of 13 seasons, but has been plagued by injuries for the past three years and batted just .222 with five home runs and 23 RBIs in 61 games in 2004 for the Texas Rangers.

He had knee surgery in July 2003 and said he should have given himself more time to heal before returning at start of last season. Jordan said he's recovered and ready to show he can return to his old form.

[stevew]

Tigers big move

Tigers set to get Ordonez

Free-agent OF could receive 5-year, $75 million deal as early as Monday.

By Lynn Henning / The Detroit News


DETROIT -- After being rejected by a handful of billboard free agents, after having been trumped by too many free-spending competitors during a frustrating off-season, the Tigers appeared Saturday to be closing in on a marquee player -- heavy-hitting outfielder Magglio Ordonez, who stood to win from Detroit a five-year contract believed to be worth $75 million, according to the Associated Press.

A deal could be announced as early as Monday, after the Super Bowl hoopla fades away.

Dave Dombrowski, Tigers president and general manager, did not return a phone call regarding the possibility of a Tigers-Ordonez union. John Westhoff, the Tigers' legal counsel and primary contract negotiator, would not comment when reached by phone.

Ordonez's agent, Scott Boras, did not respond to Detroit News phone messages left at his California office, nor did Tigers manager Alan Trammell.

But the Ordonez vigil was of immense interest throughout baseball, which is why the likely arrival in Detroit of an immensely talented offensive player was the industry's poorest-kept secret as Saturday unfurled.

Ordonez, who turned 31 on Jan. 28, is the biggest free-agent name still available and a last resort for the weary Tigers who had sought desperately to add a top-tier pitcher or hitter heading into the 2005 season.

In Ordonez, the Tigers stand to get the hitter needed in a lineup begging for a big bat in the outfield.

Ordonez, a career .307 batter who has hit as many as 38 home runs in a season for the Chicago White Sox, would likely start in right field and bat cleanup in Trammell's lineup.

The only question is a big one: How will Ordonez's surgically repaired left knee hold up?

Ordonez hurt the knee May 19 during a game against Cleveland when he crashed full-speed into White Sox infielder Willie Harris. After undergoing arthroscopic surgery a few days later, he returned in early June, but was lost for the season in July when he developed a condition in the knee known as bone marrow edema. During the past winter, he had the edema treated by doctors in Vienna, Austria.

Although he and Boras insist Ordonez's knee is fine, other interested teams were nervous and, one by one, shied away from the 5-year to 7-year package Boras insisted upon.

According to the Associated Press, Ordonez will receive a $6 million signing bonus and a $6 million salary in 2005, for a total of $12 million.

The salary then increases to $15 million in 2006, $12 million in 2007, $15 million in 2008 and $18 million in 2009. Detroit has a $15 million option for 2010 with a $3 million buyout, and a $15 million option for 2011 with no buyout.

In addition, Ordonez's salary in each of the option years would become guaranteed if he has 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in the previous season, or 270 starts or 1,080 plate appearances in the previous two seasons. If his 2010 salary becomes guaranteed under this provision, it would be at $18 million. The 2011 salary would be $15 million.

The Tigers -- backed by owner Mike Ilitch, who was part of an aggressive push for Ordonez - have done their own in-house research that apparently included a first-hand inspection of Ordonez Thursday during a scheduled workout in California.

That could well have been the clincher, persuading the Tigers to do what other clubs wouldn't abide: a long contract, for big money, that could exceed by a year or more anything discussed by competitors such as the Mets, Chicago Cubs, and Texas Rangers.

Detroit's immediate edge in signing the 6-foot, 215-pound Ordonez would be to pack one more booming bat into a lineup that, for all its offensive prowess, got limited output from the outfield in 2004.

Bobby Higginson, who was Trammell's primary right-fielder, hit .246 with 12 home runs and 64 RBI.

Trammell would have excess outfielders (Higginson, Rondell White, Craig Monroe, Marcus Thames) if Ordonez comes aboard.

It is certain that at least one of those outfielders would be released or traded before the end of spring training.

In any such event, Higginson, 34, might well be the odd man out.

He is heading into the final year of his contract ($8.85 million due in 2005).

Monroe hit 23 home runs two seasons ago and followed with 18 in 2004 -- 16 coming during a stretch of 212 at-bats.

He would become a top contender for time in left field should the Tigers decide to offer a marketable White as trade bait -- again, assuming Ordonez is camping in right.

Ordonez , a native of Caracas, Venezuela, is a right-handed hitter who averaged 32 home runs and 118 RBI during a five-season stretch from 1999-2003.

Because of his damaged left knee, he slipped during 2004 to nine home runs and 37 RBI in 52 games.

He is known for his offense and not necessarily for his outfield skills. He is regarded as a serviceable right-fielder with an average, but accurate, throwing arm.

He is known for his offense and not necessarily for his outfield skills.

He is regarded as a serviceable right-fielder with an average, but accurate, throwing arm.

His speed, which was never regarded as better than average, could be diminished by last season's injury and surgeries.

A reasonable guess is Ordonez would bat fourth, behind Pudge Rodriguez.

Ordonez has played his entire career with the White Sox. He also is a hitter who uses the entire field, perhaps one of the reasons why he has never had great success at vast Comerica Park (.259 career average, one home run in 135 at-bats), which can be penal for hitters who don't pull the ball.

The Tigers can live with those numbers for one reason: If they sign a healthy Ordonez, the numbers will take care of themselves.

Those numbers will go a long way toward taking care of a ballclub badly in need of an addition on the level of Magglio Ordonez.

Ordonez would be the second major free agent signed by the Tigers this off-season. They signed relief pitcher Troy Percival in November, then sat and watched a parade of free agents pass up Detroit.

That certainly is a whole lot of $$$

[stevew]

Oh, the ESPN article does report that the Tigers have a "void" available after the first season if his knee injury resurfaces, limiting their exposure to only 12 million for 1 year if he is hurt.

[Ksyrup]

I'm glad the Tigers made this move. They need to overspend to get respectable, then mabe guys ill actually think they have a chance. Especially since they're in the Central. If they can put up an 85 win season, they're a contender.

[Ksyrup]

Always good commentary from Rotoworld...


In an effort to make voiding deals easier in the future, the Yankees have added Jason Giambi and Kevin Brown clauses to their contracts in the offseason.

Problems ''caused by or related to the abuse, misuse or use of steroids'' or inflicting injury upon oneself can now result in a Yankee's contract being voided, assuming the player is making more than he's worth, of course. Next year, expect a Tony Womack clause giving the Yankees the ability to void any deals that were just plain stupid right from the beginning.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by stevew

Oh, the ESPN article does report that the Tigers have a "void" available after the first season if his knee injury resurfaces, limiting their exposure to only 12 million for 1 year if he is hurt.

Depending on the wording of that, this is a really nice contract. Prior to the injuries, his worst season in AVG-HR-RBI the last 5 years was something like .301-29-99 and averaging over .900 OPS. So, if you can get that kindof production and have an out in case the injury shows up in the first year, this is a really good signing.

SI

[Arles]

Arizona just got Jose Cruz Jr. and cash from TB for Casey "6 ERA man" Fossum. While Cruz is by no means a star, I like this deal for a few reasons:

1. Arizona didn't have to give up anyone of value to get an upgrade at CF (ie, no Santos, Quentin, Gosling or Jackson). There was no way they would get Byrnes without giving up one of them.
2. Arizona badly needs a leadoff guy and Cruz can be that with his speed (11 SB) and OBP (.350 or so over the past two seasons).
3. The team was able to get rid of Fossum, who figured to make a little over a mil as a long relief guy with a bad performance history - no thanks.
4. The DBacks didn't get in a multi-year situation with a risky player (Burnitz, Byrnes, Payton, Cameron) that would probably end up being overpaid and hurt the development of Terrero.

Overall, this is the perfect offseason as a DBacks fan. They have a significantly better lineup:

Cruz - Clayton - Gonzo - Glaus - Green - Tracy - Hill - Counsell

and a better rotation:

Vazquez - Ortiz - Webb - Estes - Halsey/Gosling

They didn't give up one good prospect and their salary level is right around $60 million ($10+ mil less than 04). It also seems like they will be signing Drew over the next two weeks with the money they got in the Green deal. I'm not saying they will win the West, but they should be competitive and continue to improve as their prospects (Jackson, Santos, Quentin, Gosling, Drew?) mature over the next few seasons. If you look at where this franchise was going into 04 and where it now - it's quite a difference.

[sterlingice]

Could definitely use another pitcher there. But your payroll is only $60M?

SI

[CentralMassHokie]

We've been through this, but I don't think the DBacks improved nearly enough to be competitive with anyone but Colorado in the West. Green and Glaus are big improvements on offense, but everyone else is pretty much a wash at best. Cruz could be a big improvement, but that will depend on which Cruz shows up.

The rotation is going to give up an unbelievable amount of HRs in the BOB. Potentially record setting - you could see 3 pitchers on the staff give up 35+ HRs (Vazquez, Ortiz, Estes).

In a season or two, when some of the current crop of propsects are ready to start getting meaningful playing time, it'll be a very different story, assuming that the DBacks don't get sucked into sticking with the vets for the sake of sticking with vets. The way they've dealt with Hairston isn't a good sign, thus far.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

We've been through this, but I don't think the DBacks improved nearly enough to be competitive with anyone but Colorado in the West. Green and Glaus are big improvements on offense, but everyone else is pretty much a wash at best. Cruz could be a big improvement, but that will depend on which Cruz shows up.

The rotation is going to give up an unbelievable amount of HRs in the BOB. Potentially record setting - you could see 3 pitchers on the staff give up 35+ HRs (Vazquez, Ortiz, Estes).

I agree to a point. But during this 3-4 season stretch with dead money, Arizona is limited to a payroll around $70 mil. Given that caveat, the team that Arizona will field is a pretty good one. I expect them to be very competitive with SF and LA, despite the fact that the Dodgers will almost double their payroll. Like I've said before, I think Arizona will finish in the 75-80 win range for 05. That will be a change of 25-30 wins, despite cutting the payroll by $10+ million.

In a season or two, when some of the current crop of propsects are ready to start getting meaningful playing time, it'll be a very different story, assuming that the DBacks don't get sucked into sticking with the vets for the sake of sticking with vets. The way they've dealt with Hairston isn't a good sign, thus far.

First, Arizona only has about four vets on the team with any kind of financial commitment (Green, Gonzo, Glaus, Ortiz). I would expect that unless Gonzo has a great 05, he will either be moved, retire or forced to a smaller role (a la Matt Williams) in 06 to make room for Quentin. The team could also move Green to 1B and play Q and Gonzo if Luis is still hitting. As to SS Santos (their next ready prospect), the fact they only signed Clayton to a one-year deal shows their future plans for that position.

Hairston was given every chance to play in 04. He simply cannot play defense - he's a DH or poor fielding OF. The team will start him in AAA to see if he can learn some D, but it's not like they could hand over the starting 2B to him given his defense and number of mental mistakes he had in 04. Heck, there were games where running the bases was a chore for him last season and he even admitted he forgot what the signs meant.

Overall, Arizona has increased their team talent level to a point where they are now a potential 80-win team in 05. They've done this without locking up positions where they have long-term talent and without any real "bad" contracts. They've also trimmed payroll from 04. Again, I expect Arizona to finish within 5-6 games of LA in 05 despite having a payroll about half as high. That's not a bad start, especially considering the payroll flexibility Arizona will have over the next 2-3 seasons (Gonzo ends, only $60 mil now) and the prospects that should be ready (Terrero, Quentin, Santos, Jackson, Gosling, Drew..). So, instead of being a 100-loss team for the next few seasons as many predicted after 04, Arizona will still be competitive while getting out from under this deferred money shadow.

[CentralMassHokie]

I just don't think they're a potential 80 win team. You're still grossly overestimating the offensive contributions of Clayton, Counsell, Tracy, and Cruz Jr. And you're still grossly overestimating the pitching of Russ Ortiz. Park factors are huge in these cases, as is decline due to age.

I haven't looked at the Shandler or PECOTA projections, but using Larry Mahnken from the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog ran 100 sims using Diamond Mind and the Zips projections from Baseball Think Factory. The mean record for the DBacks? 65-97. That's before Cruz Jr was in the picture, but he's not going to make a huge difference.

The best case sim for the DBacks was 82 wins. *Best* case. Not that Zips projections are fool proof, but they tend to be decent projections.

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2005/0...with-zips.html

Looking at the particular Zips projections for the DBacks pitchers, they're far more generous than I would have been. The hitting projections seem to be pretty decent, but if you factor in Glaus for a full season rather than only 400 ABs, the DBacks probably pick up another couple of wins.

If the DBacks win 70 games, that'd be an exceedingly good season in my mind.

[Arles]

I don't know, I can't see Webb going to an ERA over 4 with two seasons at 2.84 and 3.59. Melvin and Webb admitted that most of Webb's struggles in 04 were related to the pouress defense he had behind him and that he tried to strike more people out and not throw as many ground balls (hence the uncharacteristic # of walks). I think Vazquez will also finish with an ERA below 4. And ZIPS has been severly off Ortiz for a while now when you look at his final numbers. But, hey, if Ortiz finishes with an ERA near 5, Vazquez and Webb finish over 4.10, Shawn Estes has as bad an ERA in AZ as he did in Coors field in 2004, Glaus and Green combine for 50 HRs and Arizona doesn't have one .500 starting pitcher, then I will agree that Arizona will be lucky to win 70 games. Of course, I don't see that happening

I found a few players on Pecota, and they look much more positive. One is Glaus, who was .258/.369/.476 on ZIPS and is .281/.391/.579 on Pecota. Still, it comes down to how healthy guys like Green, Glaus and Gonzo stay.

[Bad-example]

70-75 wins seems a pretty reasonable projection for Arizona this year, 80 wins a bit overly optimistic.Depending on how the Dodgers overhauled roster shapes up, that could be good enough for 3rd place...but probably not.

[DeToxRox]

Tigers make a trade

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1987747

To Detroit: Kyle Farnsworth
To Chicago: Roberto Novoa, Scott Moore and Bo Flowers

Good deal for Detroit.

Percival, Urbina, Farnsworth is a great 7-9 inning trifecta. Plus, Fernando Rodney, who was supposed to be our closer last year before surgery is back. Add Jamie Walker and we have one of the AL's better pens.

The prospects don't hurt. Moore was a top ten pick out of high school a few years ago, but played A Ball last year and struggled. Flowers isn't much of anything either. Novoa could be good, but wouldn't contribute at all for us this year. So needless to say, I am a happy camper.


Associated Press
CHICAGO -- The Chicago Cubs traded right-handed reliever Kyle Farnsworth and a player to be named to the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday for pitcher Roberto Novoa and two minor leaguers.


Kyle Farnsworth
Relief Pitcher
Chicago Cubs
Profile


2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM W L Sv K ERA
72 4 5 0 78 4.73






Farnsworth was 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA last season for Chicago. He struck out 78 batters in 66 2/3 innings.



"Kyle Farnsworth is an established major league relief pitcher," Tigers president Dave Dombrowski said in a statement. "He can pitch in many roles out of our bullpen and is a quality addition to our pitching staff."



In six seasons with the Cubs, the 28-year-old Farnsworth went 22-37 with a 4.78 ERA.



Novoa split time between Detroit and Double-A Erie in 2004. In 16 games with the Tigers, the right-hander was 1-1 with a 5.57 ERA.



Chicago also picked up third baseman Scott Moore and outfielder Bo Flowers in the trade.



Moore hit .223 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI in 118 games at Class A Lakeland last season. Flowers played the majority of the season at Class A Oneonta, hitting .280 with four home runs and 26 RBI in 66 games.

[MrIllini]

damn

St Louis bats will miss the times Farnsie used to come in

[Radii]

Farnsworth was a fireballer who I always hoped would gain just a little bit of control.

I don't get this trade at all from a Cubs standpoint. This makes an already weak bullpen even weaker, and it sounds like the return is a decent relief prospect and two long shots. Why?

[Hammer755]

I saw today that Ryan Dempster is expected to be their closer next year. Now, I'm one of those guys who feels that the position of closer is overrated, and you can use a non-conventional pitcher to fill the role, but Ryan Dempster?

[Masked]

Dempster was ok in relief last season. Good strike out numbers, but a few too many walks. Besides, Farnsworth could always be counted on to walk the first batter and let at least one of his inherited runners to score. He was horrible after June.

Dempster's stats:

SEASON		TEAM		W		L		ERA		G		GS		CG		SHO		SV		SVO		IP		H		R		ER		HR		HBP		BB		SO
2004		Chicago Cubs		1		1		3.92		23		0		0		0		2		2		20.2		16		9		9		1		2		13		18

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Hammer755

I saw today that Ryan Dempster is expected to be their closer next year. Now, I'm one of those guys who feels that the position of closer is overrated, and you can use a non-conventional pitcher to fill the role, but Ryan Dempster?

I dunno. I think we're seen that mediocre to above average starters become pretty good closers. I leave Smoltz out of this because he was one of the best starters when he was on. But Eric Gagne, Joe Nathan, Jason Isringhausen- even back to Flash Gordon and Dennis Eckersley. Personally, I think it just goes to show that starting is much more difficult than closing and that the best pitchers are starters because they're that much more important. Others probably see this differently- something about pitchers needing to find their role or whatever. I just think it's a lot more of the former than the latter.

SI

[Radii]

I have no problem with trying Dempster at closer at this point, but that still doesn't seem to justify doing anything with Farnsworth at this point, he would have gone into the season as the only guy i could possibly see as a setup man.