2015-2016 Democratic Primary Season - Bernie Math

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

i'd much rather see 60 max (after that the hearts just seem to calcify).

Eh, I figure suffering long enough buys some validity.

[molson]

Clinton polls ahead of Sanders in New Hampshire for the first time since late July. (Edit: Just one poll, but Sanders had led there in double digits in multiple polls for a while). It will be interesting to see if Clinton gets a bump in the national polls as well.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

And that's where the GOP has been playing varsity while the Dems have been playing JV. The GOP got that the presidency is a big important job and they tried to win it. But their real successful efforts have been at the state and local level. They have realized that the majority of policy happens at that level. And that control of the states gives you control of the federal districting. And they've worked to get those state houses, while the Dems have under-committed resources to those races.

And, when the GOP does get control of the statehouses, they have plug-n-play ALEC bills that they push through on party-line votes. They don't waste time figuring out what to do when they are in charge. They immediately push through their policies. I don't agree with those polices, but I give them an A+ for execution.

The high-profile nature of the presidency, where the Dems have done pretty decently, masks the single biggest development in American politics in the last 15-20 years: how much better than the Dems the GOP is at politics.

To continue to beat this drum: Democrats are in denial. Their party is actually in deep trouble. - Vox

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Saw that Biden is entering the race. A Biden/Trump matchup would be SO entertaining, if somewhat frightening.

[Solecismic]

For the record, there is no term limit on serving as vice president. He may just really like One Observatory Circle.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Saw that Biden is entering the race. A Biden/Trump matchup would be SO entertaining, if somewhat frightening.

Yes, of course, there goes the Executive Brach street cred. At least Clinton/Bush/Rubio could keep it real.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Feels to me as though the race is now Biden's to lose.

And if that's the case, then does Hilary go down as the single biggest flop as a candidate in history? Has anyone else ever blown a commanding lead twice?

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Yes, of course, there goes the Executive Brach street cred. At least Clinton/Bush/Rubio could keep it real.

I'm not sure how much cred it had to begin with

[Solecismic]

Seems like WaPo may have simply published its pre-prepared Biden-is-in story. Just like newspapers have a file of obituaries for many famous people.

He may be in this week, but nothing is confirmed.

[larrymcg421]

PPP has Clinton up by 8 in New Hampshire.

[Ryche]

Webb is officially out, hasn't ruled out an Independent run though.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

For the record, there is no term limit on serving as vice president. He may just really like One Observatory Circle.

Well, yes and no. One can, technically, be Vice President indefinitely, but one must otherwise be constitutionally eligible to be President. So Barack Obama could not serve even one term as Vice President, because he has exhausted his Presidential eligibility, but Joe Biden could be Vice President until the heat death of the universe.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Webb is officially out, hasn't ruled out an Independent run though.

So with Webb out, how many of the candidates left have killed a man? It's just Hillary and Carson, right?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'm not sure how much cred it had to begin with

Looking back on GWB, he was friggin awesome. Never a dull moment.

But I meant the moderates in this race Hillary/Jeb/Marco.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Joe says ... no.

My Way News - VP Joe Biden says he will not run for president in 2016

[Butter]

You could pretty much tell from his Colbert appearance that he wasn't going to run, even though Stephen was trying to get him into it.

[molson]

He'll still poll third.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

You could pretty much tell from his Colbert appearance that he wasn't going to run, even though Stephen was trying to get him into it.

I knew when I saw this headline that Joe Biden wasn't going to run

Joe Biden will enter 2016 presidential race, Fox News reports

[ISiddiqui]

I love it. I know people were salivating over Biden running, thinking it'd kill Clinton's campaign - esp as her lead in the polls has grown since the 1st debate. Though a decent amount of that has come from Biden's numbers falling (I think not declaring before the 1st debate is what killed him). It appears Sanders' support will cap out at around 20-30%.

[Neuqua]

I admit I was hoping Biden would enter the race because as of now none of the candidates from either party looked like a strong candidate to me.

At the halfway point of watching this Benghazi Panel however, I'm growing more and more impressed with the way Hillary is handling all this. As someone who has no allegiance to the left/right, I am dumbfounded that anyone found this panel was still necessary after all the previous investigations and millions spent.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Neuqua

I am dumbfounded that anyone found this panel was still necessary after all the previous investigations and millions spent.

I get the "why" of it, it warranted a close look afaic ... but if a meaningful result would be the only justification for it then there probably isn't one.

New poll out today (I'll paraphrase) showed 40% of Americans had no opinion about her answers to date, 37% were unhappy with the answers, and 22% were happy with her responses. In other words more people really don't give a shit than any other category.

As I noted about this earlier today elsewhere (and I think previously in this thread, relating to the debate rather than Benghazi), those who loved her still love her, those who hate her still hate her, and the rest really aren't into giving a huge f. one way or the other.

[Neuqua]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

As I noted about this earlier today elsewhere (and I think previously in this thread, relating to the debate rather than Benghazi), those who loved her still love her, those who hate her still hate her, and the rest really aren't into giving a huge f. one way or the other.

Sounds about right. I'm only listening to it because it's a slower day at work.

[Solecismic]

Lincoln Chafee is out of the race, prompting me to realize I've been misspelling his name all along. Others might not be as impacted.

[ISiddiqui]

The saddest part of it is that Kyle Mooney's impersonation of him on SNL was utterly fantastic and it will unfortunately no longer be done.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Lincoln Chafee is out of the race, prompting me to realize I've been misspelling his name all along. Others might not be as impacted.

#FeelTheChafe apparently wasn't a good enough twitter hashtag.

[digamma]

Maybe time to think about VP options here.

O'Malley?
Wesley Clark?
Diamond Joe again?
The Missouri Governor?
Tim Kaine?
The San Antonio or LA mayor?

I'm sure I'm leaving out others.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by digamma

Maybe time to think about VP options here.

O'Malley?
Wesley Clark?
Diamond Joe again?
The Missouri Governor?
Tim Kaine?
The San Antonio or LA mayor?

I'm sure I'm leaving out others.

Cory Booker

[digamma]

Good addition.

[JPhillips]

After Ferguson, the MO gov is out of the question.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

#FeelTheChafe apparently wasn't a good enough twitter hashtag.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by digamma

Maybe time to think about VP options here.

O'Malley?
Wesley Clark?
Diamond Joe again?
The Missouri Governor?
Tim Kaine?
The San Antonio or LA mayor?

I'm sure I'm leaving out others.

bill

[stevew]

Wesley Clark would be an obvious and good choice. May be too old, but I think he balnces the ticket for male voters

[molson]

Could Hillary/Bernie be a thing? VP-wise. That might get some of the Berniacs to the polls, though he'd probably do much more for their cause in the Senate.

[stevew]

What about Mark Warner?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by molson

Could Hillary/Bernie be a thing? VP-wise. That might get some of the Berniacs to the polls, though he'd probably do much more for their cause in the Senate.

It wouldn't work for two reasons:

1) Bernie's fans would consider him a MASSIVE sellout
2) Bernie doesn't really gain Hillary anything. Vermont is already going to vote for her. People on the left are going to support her over a Republican.

Hillary Clinton needs a more moderate VP, probably a man, from a battleground or red state.

[NobodyHere]

Does the state a VP is from really matter?

I mean Biden is from Connecticut and Darth Cheney is from Wyoming, neither of which are purple states.

[molson]

I'm not really even sure what the role of a VP in 2016 is, either in a practical sense, or as a way to help win an election for a president.

Of course, backup president is still probably the most relevant and important thing. But can a VP candidate deliver a battleground state? Do a lot of Republican voters switch their vote to Democrat because of a Democrat VP candidate from their state (and vice-versa)? Is there any value in a symbolic, exciting/extreme guy that might bring people to the polls that would otherwise stay home? Or is it better just to go with someone safe and boring, so you don't risk your VP embarrassing you at debates and such. Just off the top of my head, I can think of more VP candidates who were detriments than ones who actively helped a campaign.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Does the state a VP is from really matter?

I mean Biden is from Connecticut and Darth Cheney is from Wyoming, neither of which are purple states.

Cheney was always considered a very different VP choice. Biden is from Delaware, btw, and he is originally from Pennsylvania (remember his numerous times talking about Scranton in speeches). PA was a battleground state and Biden was known as an experienced Senator who know foreign policy, which was Obama's two weaknesses.

They may matter less these days, but they still tend to be important in some calculations.

[albionmoonlight]

O'Malley seems like a strong VP candidate from the "looks the part" department.

[JPhillips]

I think accepting the veep slot is a really tough decision. Even if Hillary wins she'll face headwinds in 2020 and if she wins a second term it seems extremely unlikely that a Dem would get elected to a fifth consecutive term. If you're ambitious, do you take the risk of ending up a loser and having some new blood emerge as the "new" Democratic party?

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It wouldn't work for two reasons:

1) Bernie's fans would consider him a MASSIVE sellout
2) Bernie doesn't really gain Hillary anything. Vermont is already going to vote for her. People on the left are going to support her over a Republican.

Hillary Clinton needs a more moderate VP, probably a man, from a battleground or red state.

This.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

bill

Constitutionally ineligible

[stevew]

It's debatable.

It's at least gray.

[Swaggs]

I think one of the few true admissions from candidates is that they typically choose their VP based on their belief that they would make a good (or, at least, credible) president. I think McCain is the exception, but it is pretty well accepted that he and the GOP couldn't agree on an acceptable choice.

I would think either of the senators from Virginia (both been governors) or someone like Evan Bayh (former guv and senator from Indiana) or Tom Vilsack (former gov of Iowa and long-time cabinet member) would make sense. I think Castro would have the feeling of a desperation move.

[Thomkal]

could be right about Bayh, as he's a big Clinton guy or he was at least. How long has he been out of office though?

[Solecismic]

I liked Bayh. Surprisingly, he doesn't turn 60 until right after the election. Seemed he was representing Indiana in some way for generations.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by stevew

It's debatable.

It's at least gray.

What is? Bill's constitutional ineligibility? The Twelfth Amendment sez: if you're not eligible to be President, you're not eligible to be Vice-President.

The Twenty-Second sez you're not eligible to be elected President more than twice, or more than once if you've served more than half of somebody else's elective term.

I'm reasonably sure that if a Democratic nominee tried to tap Bill to be the Vice-President and hinged her argument on "elected," the courts would slap that down as rules lawyering.

And that's what makes it a dangerous gamble. If that happens, Congress then has to approve a new Vice President. Let's say it's an election close enough that a Democrat wins the White House but doesn't have the coattails to take back the Senate. The opposition party then has complete say over who gets confirmed to the #2 office. The President-elect is then in a position of either acquiescing to their wishes, or going the term with the office of Vice President vacant.

If Hillary is that President-elect, acquiescence incentivizes the sort of day-one impeachment effort Congressman Mo Brooks was calling for the other day. Lose the election, get a Republican President anyway.

If she leaves the office vacant, then her age (and by extension her health) become more important, because if she dies in office or is otherwise incapacitated, the Speaker of the House assumes Presidential responsibilities.

It's funny to think about a Vice-President Bill Clinton, but I'm not sure that's fire worth playing with for any Democratic candidate.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Surprisingly, he doesn't turn 60 until right after the election.

Which might make him the youngest person on either ticket. 60 is the new 40.

[flere-imsaho]

Julian Castro. Especially if Rubio gets the GOP nomination.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Julian Castro. Especially if Rubio gets the GOP nomination.

that simply has to be the first draft if you're in party leadership