Baseball Offseason 2004-5 Thread

[stevew]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

You know, I'm just going to flat out say it: the DBacks got raped for RJ. You have a team that's desperate to get your player almost to the point of insanity despite having no other competition and the best you can come away with it is Javy Vasquez and two decent but not even that good prospects.

Vasquez is easily the most interesting of the three as I think he's a good candidate for a comeback in the right situation, particularly out of the large market glare. I dunno, but he always struck me as one of those who would flop in NY. Then again, I keep seeing that the DBacks are looking to flip him for prospects elsewhere so any possible gain is negated there.

The other two aren't nearly as interesting as Halsey is most definitely a TNSTAAPP as his K/9 was pretty good but someone find this guy the plate: a walk more than once every three innings. And Navarro, while highly touted by the national media, looks a lot more the product of East Coast Hype (TM- patent pending) than anything as he hasn't hit much above A ball.

Then again, this deal is yet to be agreed upon. It's 98% done accorinding to the Yanks website but that doesn't mean much as it's been anywhere from "light interest" to "a done deal" so for all we know, it'll end up being Johnson, the newly inked Troy Glaus/Royce Clayon/Craig Counsell (because the left side of your infield can never be too full), the renaming of 'The Bob' to 'The George', 15 miles of Arizona oceanfront property for Javy Vazquez, Dioneer Navarro, Jason Giambi, 3 Yankees Stadium luxury boxes, $250M in cash, and the trinkets which Manhattan was bought for.

SI

Let Johnson walk after this season and get nothing would be the alternative tho. Vasquez is a pretty darn good pitcher, and they should do well by either keeping him, or trading him for more usable players. He had a bad half season. Vasquez at 9 million a season less than Randy Johnson(after cash throw in) plus 2 iffy guys(tho navarro *might* be decent) is pretty much as good as they were gonna do. This is why you dont give no-trade clauses out.

[stevew]

dola,

And even if Vasquez wants to walk following the season, at least you have a chance to move him during the season. Especially if he is having a good year.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

You know, I'm just going to flat out say it: the DBacks got raped for RJ. You have a team that's desperate to get your player almost to the point of insanity despite having no other competition and the best you can come away with it is Javy Vasquez and two decent but not even that good prospects.

Vasquez is easily the most interesting of the three as I think he's a good candidate for a comeback in the right situation, particularly out of the large market glare. I dunno, but he always struck me as one of those who would flop in NY. Then again, I keep seeing that the DBacks are looking to flip him for prospects elsewhere so any possible gain is negated there.

The other two aren't nearly as interesting as Halsey is most definitely a TNSTAAPP as his K/9 was pretty good but someone find this guy the plate: a walk more than once every three innings. And Navarro, while highly touted by the national media, looks a lot more the product of East Coast Hype (TM- patent pending) than anything as he hasn't hit much above A ball.

Then again, this deal is yet to be agreed upon. It's 98% done accorinding to the Yanks website but that doesn't mean much as it's been anywhere from "light interest" to "a done deal" so for all we know, it'll end up being Johnson, the newly inked Troy Glaus/Royce Clayon/Craig Counsell (because the left side of your infield can never be too full), the renaming of 'The Bob' to 'The George', 15 miles of Arizona oceanfront property for Javy Vazquez, Dioneer Navarro, Jason Giambi, 3 Yankees Stadium luxury boxes, $250M in cash, and the trinkets which Manhattan was bought for.

SI

I don't see how Arizona got raped here. Sure, you are going to have a hard time getting market value for a 41-year old making $16 million (even without a no-trade, only a handful of teams could pay that). The reality was Johnson would walk after 05. He had been getting daily knee injects in August and there's a decent chance that he would spend atleast one stint on the DL if he stayed (like he did in 03). Keeping Johnson was not going to make Arizona as good a team as brining in two former All-Stars that are still in their prime (Green and Vazquez) and will be around after 05.

According to the Tribune, the deal is going to end up being one of the following two:

Johnson for Vazquez, Green and a combined $17 million (Arizona would send Halsey and Navarro to LA for Green and $8 mil).

OR

Johnson for Penny, Green, $9 million and a prospect (Arizona would send Vazquez, Halsey and Navarro to LA for Penny, Green and a prospect).

The paper out here says Arizona has no interest in sending Vazquez to Baltimore, Philly or Florida and would only move him for another top of the rotation starter (another wiff for Gammons).

So I would wait on passing judgement until all the dust settles. If Arizona can get Vazquez/Penny, Green and cash for Johnson, I would take that in a heartbeat. I know that Arizona is not all that high on Navarro or Halsey and the reason they obtainined them was the Dodgers liked them for Green.

[stevew]

Id love for philly to get Vasquez, but im sure it wont happen.

[CraigSca]

Gee...didn't Gammons say that the Dodgers backed out of the original deal because Vasquez didn't want to play on the West Coast? Funny how that doesn't seem to be issue 10 days later.

[CentralMassHokie]

I'm very skeptical of all this supposed interest that LA has in Navarro. He has yet to show that he can be a major league catcher defensively, and he didn't break 680 OPS last year in AAA, and barely got over 700 OPS in AA.

His ML EqA for AAA last year: .205
His ML EqA for AA last year: .207

Again, I'm highly skeptical of LA's interest.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Gee...didn't Gammons say that the Dodgers backed out of the original deal because Vasquez didn't want to play on the West Coast? Funny how that doesn't seem to be issue 10 days later.

I would guess that it means that perhaps the Dodgers are just not trustworthy?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

I'm very skeptical of all this supposed interest that LA has in Navarro. He has yet to show that he can be a major league catcher defensively, and he didn't break 680 OPS last year in AAA, and barely got over 700 OPS in AA.

His ML EqA for AAA last year: .205
His ML EqA for AA last year: .207

Again, I'm highly skeptical of LA's interest.

Time shall tell, but I doubt highly that Arizona would bring back Navarra if it wasn't for another deal. They are much higher on both Koye Hill and Chris Snider in their own systems. In fact, the Arizona Republic stated that the reason the deal took an extra two days to finalize was to make sure that a deal for Green would be agreed upon in principle and that Arizona would get the guys LA wanted for Green (Navarro, Halsey).

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Gee...didn't Gammons say that the Dodgers backed out of the original deal because Vasquez didn't want to play on the West Coast? Funny how that doesn't seem to be issue 10 days later.

I think the Dodgers backed out because they didn't want to give up Brazoban. The change is now they would give up Green and Penny to get Vazquez, Halsey and Navarra (no Brazoban or Eric Duncan).

Although, I still think Arizona will hold on to Vazquez and just do the Navarro and Halsey for Green and $8 mil deal the AP reported.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by stevew

Let Johnson walk after this season and get nothing would be the alternative tho. Vasquez is a pretty darn good pitcher, and they should do well by either keeping him, or trading him for more usable players. He had a bad half season. Vasquez at 9 million a season less than Randy Johnson(after cash throw in) plus 2 iffy guys(tho navarro *might* be decent) is pretty much as good as they were gonna do. This is why you dont give no-trade clauses out.

Originally Posted by Arles

I don't see how Arizona got raped here. Sure, you are going to have a hard time getting market value for a 41-year old making $16 million (even without a no-trade, only a handful of teams could pay that). The reality was Johnson would walk after 05. He had been getting daily knee injects in August and there's a decent chance that he would spend atleast one stint on the DL if he stayed (like he did in 03). Keeping Johnson was not going to make Arizona as good a team as brining in two former All-Stars that are still in their prime (Green and Vazquez) and will be around after 05.

According to the Tribune, the deal is going to end up being one of the following two:

Johnson for Vazquez, Green and a combined $17 million (Arizona would send Halsey and Navarro to LA for Green and $8 mil).

OR

Johnson for Penny, Green, $9 million and a prospect (Arizona would send Vazquez, Halsey and Navarro to LA for Penny, Green and a prospect).

The paper out here says Arizona has no interest in sending Vazquez to Baltimore, Philly or Florida and would only move him for another top of the rotation starter (another wiff for Gammons).

So I would wait on passing judgement until all the dust settles. If Arizona can get Vazquez/Penny, Green and cash for Johnson, I would take that in a heartbeat. I know that Arizona is not all that high on Navarro or Halsey and the reason they obtainined them was the Dodgers liked them for Green.

I'll just address these both at once. The crux of the argument being thus: " According to the Tribune, the deal is going to end up being one of the following two:" The deal is not limited to those two. Everyone thinks the Yankees had Arizona bent over a barrel but the DBacks had New York just as much. If the Yankees don't get Beltran or Johnson (or both for the most insane of fans) then their offseason is a complete waste and they get crucified in the media. I don't think George would stand for that so I think if Arizona had looked them in the eye when they said "it's this or nothing" and said "ok, nothing" then things get a lot more interesting. At that point the Yankees are either forced to really overpay for Beltran or reconsider their options in the Johnson deal, maybe throw in a little less cash (no, not down to $3M as reported, maybe $7M instead of $9M) and Duncan perhaps. Or just bide their time because when the Yanks struggle because Jaret Wright remembers he's Jaret Wright and they're trailing the gutted Red Sox by 5 at the break, who's going to come calling to Arizona, more willing to deal this time.

Still, if this is part of a two part deal, then we certainly will have to see what the second part holds. But until then, Vasquez, a middling prospect, and a decent prospect is not that great of a return particularly for the one guy that really gets your fans out to the ballpark.

SI

[Arles]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'll just address these both at once. The crux of the argument being thus: " According to the Tribune, the deal is going to end up being one of the following two:" The deal is not limited to those two. Everyone thinks the Yankees had Arizona bent over a barrel but the DBacks had New York just as much. If the Yankees don't get Beltran or Johnson (or both for the most insane of fans) then their offseason is a complete waste and they get crucified in the media. I don't think George would stand for that so I think if Arizona had looked them in the eye when they said "it's this or nothing" and said "ok, nothing" then things get a lot more interesting. At that point the Yankees are either forced to really overpay for Beltran or reconsider their options in the Johnson deal, maybe throw in a little less cash (no, not down to $3M as reported, maybe $7M instead of $9M) and Duncan perhaps.

First, the deal was just reported on the radio here as including $9 million (not 3), so keep that in mind. Also, Arizona didn't have much interest in Duncan. They signed Glaus and have Tracy and Conner Jackson (both play 3B) and are more high on them to begin with. There wasn't one Yankee prospect Arizona was all that high on. And the guys they brought in were solely (if you believe the local papers here) to get Green.

Or just bide their time because when the Yanks struggle because Jaret Wright remembers he's Jaret Wright and they're trailing the gutted Red Sox by 5 at the break, who's going to come calling to Arizona, more willing to deal this time.

At the last trade deadline in July (when the Sox were hot and on the tail of NY), the best offer the Yankees made was Navarro, Duncan, Robinson Cano, some other stiff and $5 million for Johnson. Arizona asked for Vazquez and George said he was "untouchable" and said he may consider moving Posada, but that's it.

Suddenly, New York sees Boston win the series and Arizona comes back calling in the offseason and Vazquez is available, plus two of the prospects and twice the cash. I would say Arizona has had more leverage and used it pretty well given what the market was for Johnson last July.

What if Clement regresses, Schilling doesn't get his ankle back and the combination of Mussina, Vazquez and Pavano do well and have the Yankees up by 7-8 games in July? What then does Arizona do? You think George would be willing to trade a guy like Vazquez who has 12 wins and is pitching well, plus two prospects and $9 million for a guy he can sign for nothing in two months? And what if Johnson got hurt in June (a distinct possibility for a 41-year old guy with a bad back and knees who spent a bunch of time on the DL in 03)? What do they do then? They lose the pitching of Johnson and get nothing for him expect having another $10+ million leech on the payroll (a la Sexson and Mantei in 04).

The fact is the iron is hot right now and Arizona is striking. There is no possible way they will get a better deal than Vazquez, two prospects and $9 million for Johnson.

Still, if this is part of a two part deal, then we certainly will have to see what the second part holds. But until then, Vasquez, a middling prospect, and a decent prospect is not that great of a return particularly for the one guy that really gets your fans out to the ballpark.

I agree here. If all Arizona ends up with is Vazquez and prospects I will be a little disappointed as I had hoped Arizona would turn Johnson into two nice players. Still, from a value standpoint, getting Vazquez and $9 mil for Johnson is not all that bad by itself considering Vazquez is only 28 and has been very good in 3 and a half of the past 4 seasons. I would much rather have Vazquez and $9 million going into 05 than Randy Johnson.

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

I'm very skeptical of all this supposed interest that LA has in Navarro. He has yet to show that he can be a major league catcher defensively, and he didn't break 680 OPS last year in AAA, and barely got over 700 OPS in AA.

His ML EqA for AAA last year: .205
His ML EqA for AA last year: .207

Again, I'm highly skeptical of LA's interest.

I don't see any point in comparing a 20 year old catcher, who isn't close to being ready for the bigs, probably won't be for 2-3 years, to MLB hitters. His EqA for the AA Eastern League was .261 and for AAA International League it was .237.

Also I wouldn't read too much into last season. He came into training camp "fat and happy" and struggled early on in the AA and then was overwhelmed in AAA. I've heard that he hit the ball much better toward the end of year, and he was far better as a 19 year old. However, how many 20 year old switching hitting catchers are there in AAA? He'll never hit for much power, but I thik he's still a quality prospect.

P.S. If we want to compare ML EqA's Hanley Ramirez was .208 in A, and .239 in AA.

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by Bomber

P.S. If we want to compare ML EqA's Hanley Ramirez was .208 in A, and .239 in AA.

I don't want to get into a pissing match, but a .239 EqA for a AA SS with phenomenal defensive skills is certainly more projectable than a catcher who's defensive issue were exposed last year to the point of him no longer being considered a great defensive backstop who put up a .207 EqA over the same stretch.

Navarro's certainly got a huge upside, but he simply hasn't developed in the Yankees fast track system.

[Bomber]

To tell you the truth I'm glad we're getting rid of Navarro now, while he still has value. One more year like last and he won't be such a hot trading piece. The only position players worth a damn in the Yanks farm system are Duncan, Vechionacci, Cabrera, and Cano. The problem is only Cano will be ready within the year and is older than 20.

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by Bomber

To tell you the truth I'm glad we're getting rid of Navarro now, while he still has value. One more year like last and he won't be such a hot trading piece. The only position players worth a damn in the Yanks farm system are Duncan, Vechionacci, Cabrera, and Cano. The problem is only Cano will be ready within the year and is older than 20.

I agree with all that, except Navarro lost a lot of his value last season, which is why the whole Dodgers have interest thing is highly dubious to me. It's one of the big reasons the Johnson trade didn't happen last year - the Yankees just didn't have the parts to make the deal.

Of course, the Dodgers could just be looking to get back a spare part while dumping Green's contract. Or they may be looking to hype up Navarro and then flip him again to someone like Kenny Williams, who seems to fall for that every time.

[daedalus]

Perhaps as a panic move? DePodesta sent out both Loduca and his closest-to-ready replacement in Hill last season and all they have left is Ross. I don't really know if I would consider Ross a ML-level hitter. Not many other teams would be terribly willing to part with a high quality catching prospect.

[haji1]

The Dodgers right now would move Green for a warm bucket of spit. They want his salary off the payroll. I know he hits the ball well in Arizona, but expecting him to hit 280 with 35-40 HR's is ridiculous. .255-265 with 20-25 HR's is more realistic. I have heard nothing of moving Penny at all and I seriously doubt he would be a part of any deal to Arizona. Halsey and Navarro )no matter what type prospects for Green), I say done deal.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by haji1

The Dodgers right now would move Green for a warm bucket of spit. They want his salary off the payroll. I know he hits the ball well in Arizona, but expecting him to hit 280 with 35-40 HR's is ridiculous. .255-265 with 20-25 HR's is more realistic. I have heard nothing of moving Penny at all and I seriously doubt he would be a part of any deal to Arizona. Halsey and Navarro )no matter what type prospects for Green), I say done deal.

He hit .280 with 18 HR and 45 RBI after the All-Star break in 04 (in a tough hitter's park). I see nothing to show him being a .260 - 25 HR guy given his finish last season. The logical response is that it took him a little over a year to get through his shoulder injury and got back on track to be a .280 - 40 HR guy once again.

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by daedalus

Not many other teams would be terribly willing to part with a high quality catching prospect.

DePo should talk to my Sox. After stupidly resigning Jason Varitek to the absurd 4 year, $40m contract, Kelly Shoppach is going to rot away in AAA.

Defensively, he's very solid. Offensively, he's got some holes in his swing, but his 04 AAA season was better than the AA season Varitek put up at the same age. He could probably hit major league pitching right now, even though he'd strike out twice a game. So the Dodgers could have a catcher and have a guy going for the major league strikeout record. That's gotta be worth something.

[daedalus]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

DePo should talk to my Sox. After stupidly resigning Jason Varitek to the absurd 4 year, $40m contract, Kelly Shoppach is going to rot away in AAA.

Defensively, he's very solid. Offensively, he's got some holes in his swing, but his 04 AAA season was better than the AA season Varitek put up at the same age. He could probably hit major league pitching right now, even though he'd strike out twice a game. So the Dodgers could have a catcher and have a guy going for the major league strikeout record. That's gotta be worth something.

Indeed! That would be nice.

Heck, if I had my druthers, DePodesta would have been talking to Beane about grabbing Koonce from the A's. He was not going anywhere with them with their ML 1B getting an extension and kids coming up passing him. He's probably not looking at an all-star career but 90-100 walks with some homeruns is worth a .240-.260 average with what they have at the moment.

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

DePo should talk to my Sox. After stupidly resigning Jason Varitek to the absurd 4 year, $40m contract, Kelly Shoppach is going to rot away in AAA.

Defensively, he's very solid. Offensively, he's got some holes in his swing, but his 04 AAA season was better than the AA season Varitek put up at the same age. He could probably hit major league pitching right now, even though he'd strike out twice a game. So the Dodgers could have a catcher and have a guy going for the major league strikeout record. That's gotta be worth something.

I'd rather have Navarro than Shoppach.

[haji1]

Originally Posted by Arles

He hit .280 with 18 HR and 45 RBI after the All-Star break in 04 (in a tough hitter's park). I see nothing to show him being a .260 - 25 HR guy given his finish last season. The logical response is that it took him a little over a year to get through his shoulder injury and got back on track to be a .280 - 40 HR guy once again.

There is a lot of concern that Green's injury is not one that is gone or will go away. He always hits well in the second half, and he is a good guy and a competitor so I don't see his second half numbers as anything surprising. He was in the middle of a pennant race and gave his all. The Dodgers feel they can replace his numbers at a fraction of the cost, using the money they save to get more pitching. Lowe being the most prominant with some talk of Millwood or Loaiza. It is a risk, sure, but I think it will pay off. I guess we will see where Green finishes up next year.

More talk is coming out about Penny being in the deal. Again, the Dodgers are concerned that his arm may never be truly healthy, so they are more willing to take the gamble and trade him for Vasquez, if everything comes together. I don't know if I like this deal if Vasquez is one and done, but if they can convince him to play out his contract in LA it will be a good deal.

Depo is no fool. He got out of the three way when there wasn't enough coming our way, especially with the attitude of Vasquez. He won't make the trade with Arizona unless he really feels he can replace Green's production and Penny's arm is a significant worry.

[Arles]

According to ESPN, this whole process is starting to take shape. Again, take this with a mountain of salt as ESPN has been hitting at a pretty low % this offseason, but here's the deals that will reportedly go through:

NYY trades Vazquez, Navarro, Halsey, and $9 mil to Arizona for Johnson

Arizona then trades Navarro and Halsey or another pitching prospect to LA for Green and $8 million

LA would then sign Derek Lowe to 4-year $40 million (ish) deal and Arizona would keep Vazquez.

So, in the end, Arizona would end up turning Randy Johnson into Vazquez, Green and $17 million. Kudos to Ken Kendrick and the Arizona brass for pulling that off if it happens. This also makes a lot more sense in who Arizona is getting back in the Johnson deal. Given their current system, I can't see Arizona being all that interested in a guy like Navarro or Halsey. They already have 2-3 of each type already.

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by Bomber

I'd rather have Navarro than Shoppach.

Maybe long term.

Maybe.

But short term, Shoppach is probably ready to play at the MLB level right now. Navarro isn't.

[CentralMassHokie]

The Dodgers trading Green is a pure salary dump combined with the fact that they must be thinking Werth is going to be healthy.

In that case, it really is a brilliant move. Foist more of the aging, oft-injured over to Arizona, where they can aim to have the second oldest outfield in the NL West. Gain flexibility to sign a pitcher.

Lowe at $10m a year is crazy, but he's not as bad as he was last season. Pitchers generally knock about .4 off of their ERA moving to the NL. He'll probably put up a 4.0 - 4.2 ERA. He won't be worth $10m, but he'll probably be an upgrade over Ishii and Nomo.

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

Maybe long term.

Maybe.

But short term, Shoppach is probably ready to play at the MLB level right now. Navarro isn't.

If you mean he's no longer a prospect then yes, Shoppach is ready to play in the ML right now.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

The Dodgers trading Green is a pure salary dump combined with the fact that they must be thinking Werth is going to be healthy.

I like Werth a lot. I was looking at this more of going from Green to Choi at first - which is not a good move from a production standpoint (IMO). And since they are sending $8 mil to Arizona with Green, it's not as much of a salary dump as maybe it should have been.

In that case, it really is a brilliant move. Foist more of the aging, oft-injured over to Arizona, where they can aim to have the second oldest outfield in the NL West.

Green is only 32 - he's still a good four years from being targeted by the Giants Their average starter age will be 31 with the 24-year old Terrero starting at CF. That's lower than both SF and San Diego. Plus, they have Conner Jackson and Carlos Quentin waiting in the wings for when Gonzo leaves (either 06 or 07).

Gain flexibility to sign a pitcher. Lowe at $10m a year is crazy, but he's not as bad as he was last season. Pitchers generally knock about .4 off of their ERA moving to the NL. He'll probably put up a 4.0 - 4.2 ERA. He won't be worth $10m, but he'll probably be an upgrade over Ishii and Nomo.

I don't know, weren't you the guy knocking Arizona signing Ortiz to a 4-year $33 million deal?

I would much rather have Ortiz at 4/33 than Lowe at 4/40.

[CentralMassHokie]

Green to Choi is an upgrade. The folks in LA and elsewhere will realize this when Choi gets a chance to play regularly starting this season.

Actually, I'd rather have Lowe than Ortiz. Ortiz has never been anything more than marginally above average, save his 2001 season. He has always walked too many batters and is going to see his homeruns spike this season as the BOB.

Lowe was an elite pitcher in 99 and 00. He had a "bad" year in 01, but his ERA+ was better than Ortiz'. He was back to elite in 02, and has regressed to an Ortiz-like average in 03 before bottoming out in 04. Still, his 04 wasn't as horrible as it looked (well, it was), but he pitched in the AL and in Fenway, two things that didn't help pitchers in 04.

At his worst, Lowe has been Russ Ortiz. At his best, he's been far better than Ortiz has ever been in his career. And now he may be moving to Los Angeles, which isn't going to hurt him.

My guess -- Lowe will be a little bit better than Ortiz in 2005, even after adjusting for park factors. Ortiz' walks and homers are going to kill him this year ... it's just not a good combo.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

Green to Choi is an upgrade.

That's very wishful thinking as any numbers you choose show that to be false. The only stat that Choi will be higher than Green is Ks. Heck he came within 20 of Green in 04 despite having 250 fewer ABs.

Actually, I'd rather have Lowe than Ortiz. Ortiz has never been anything more than marginally above average, save his 2001 season. He has always walked too many batters and is going to see his homeruns spike this season as the BOB.

Lowe was an elite pitcher in 99 and 00.

Lowe was an elite closer in 99 and 00, he's 1 for 3 as a starter.

He had a "bad" year in 01, but his ERA+ was better than Ortiz'. He was back to elite in 02, and has regressed to an Ortiz-like average in 03 before bottoming out in 04.

Not a great trend. Lowe's 04 was over a run worse than any season by Ortiz in recent memory. I don't know if the AL makes up for a 1.30 run difference. Here's their past three seasons (Lowe's only three as a starter):

Lowe:

02: 32 starts, 219 IP, 21-8, 2.58 ERA, .211 OAVG, 127-48 K/BB
03: 33 starts, 203 IP, 17-7, 4.47 ERA, .272 OAVG, 110-72 K/BB
04: 33 starts, 182 IP, 14-12, 5.42 ERA, .299 OAVG, 105-71 K/BB

Ortiz:

02: 33 starts, 214 IP, 14-10, 3.61 ERA, .241 OAVG, 137-94 K/BB
03: 34 starts, 212 IP, 21-7, 3.82 ERA, .223 OAVG, 149-102 K/BB
04: 34 starts, 104 IP, 15-9, 4.13 ERA, .258 OAVG, 143-112 K/BB

I think I'd rather have Ortiz $2 mil a year cheaper than Lowe.

At his worst, Lowe has been Russ Ortiz.

No, at worst Lowe has been Casey Fossum. At best, he's been a very good starter. On average, he's been below average.

My guess -- Lowe will be a little bit better than Ortiz in 2005, even after adjusting for park factors.

That will mean that going to LA improve Lowe (at age 31) by over 1.3 runs from 04.

Ortiz' walks and homers are going to kill him this year ... it's just not a good combo.

That's what they said in 04 when Ortiz had 23 HRs and 112 BBs, but he finished with a 15-9 record and a 4.13 ERA. They also said that about Ortiz in 99 when he had 24 HR and 124 BBs, yet he again had a good season with a 18-9 record and 3.81 ERA. History has shown that Ortiz may indeed give up 20 HRs and 100 BBs, but he's a good enough pitcher to still win 15-20 games with an ERA in the low 4s.

[CentralMassHokie]

ERA+ my friend, adjusts for league and park factor:

Lowe:
115
192
194
128
---starter
171
105
90

Ortiz:
108
85
122
105
109
104

Ortiz has never had a K/BB ratio better than 1.86 in his career, and is at 1.47 for his career, Lowe has only been below 1.86 3 times, and is at 2.15 for his career.

Neither pitcher is trending in the right direction, but Russ Ortiz has been among the most overrated players in baseball for a long time.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

Neither pitcher is trending in the right direction, but Russ Ortiz has been among the most overrated players in baseball for a long time.

If 15-20 wins and an ERA between 3.8 and 4.2 is overrated, I'm all for Ortiz being overrated yet again in 05 - like he's been over the past six seasons.

As an aside, ESPN is reporting that the side deal for Green is also complete. In it, Arizona send C Dioner Navarro and P William Juarez to LA for Green and $8 million. Don't know a whole lot about Juarez outside of the fact that he was 3-7 with a 5.00 ERA (68K-22BB)in 75 IP in El Paso (AA) last season. Seems like a decent prospect given his arm.

[Ksyrup]

Russ Ortiz is a rich man's Shawn Estes.

[Arles]

Ortiz:

02: 33 starts, 214 IP, 14-10, 3.61 ERA, .241 OAVG, 137-94 K/BB
03: 34 starts, 212 IP, 21-7, 3.82 ERA, .223 OAVG, 149-102 K/BB
04: 34 starts, 204 IP, 15-9, 4.13 ERA, .258 OAVG, 143-112 K/BB

Estes:

02: 29 starts, 160 IP, 5-12, 5.10 ERA, .281 OAVG, 109-83 K/BB
03: 28 starts, 152 IP, 8-11, 5.73 ERA, .305 OAVG, 103-83 K/BB
04: 34 starts, 202 IP, 15-8, 5.84 ERA, .291 OAVG, 117-105 K/BB

Again, maybe I am missing something here, but I don't even see these numbers in the same stratosphere. In the last three seasons Ortiz has been more like Carl Pavano and Odalis Perez than Shawn Estes from an ERA and win standpoint.

[CentralMassHokie]

I think Ksyrup is referring to Ortiz and Estes having similar peripheral stats -- K/9, BB/9, HR/9.

For instance, Ortiz' DIPS ERA was 4.84 last year. Good for 35th in the NL among qualified starters.

Lowe's DIPS ERA -- 4.36.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

I think Ksyrup is referring to Ortiz and Estes having similar peripheral stats -- K/9, BB/9, HR/9.

For instance, Ortiz' DIPS ERA was 4.84 last year. Good for 35th in the NL among qualified starters.

Lowe's DIPS ERA -- 4.36.

I know. Ortiz has horrible numbers in everything and his DIPS and ERA+ stink every year. Yet, he gives up his 20 HRs and walks 100+ guys and finishes with an ERA over a run better than Estes and Lowe each season. Must be magic. Like I said earlier, I'll be happy when Ortiz goes 16-8 in Arizona next season with a 4.20 ERA like has every other season to this point. Even though he may allow 24 HRs and walk 110 batters.

[Ksyrup]

That's why I said he's a "rich man's" Estes. I don't care about his wins - when you play for good teams, you should expect to win 12-18 games a year. I just know that I wouldn't put my team in a position to have to lean on Ortiz - and giving him $30M+ for 4 years is insane.

Compare Estes and Ortiz from ages 24 through 28 and tell me you don't see similarities. Ortiz's WHIP makes his OAVG less impressive - in comparison to Estes, yes, he does look better. But we're talking about Shawn Estes! I could easily see Ortiz fall off the side of the mound Estes-style. Pitching for a less-than-impressive D-Backs team should give him the chance to do just that.

[Ksyrup]

If he wins 16 games for the D-Backs and posts a 4.20 ERA, I'll buy every game Grey Dog Software puts out through 2010.

He' like Andy Pettitte - put him on a bad team, and he'll suck. I remember going to a Yankees/D-Rays game back in 1998, a matchup of Tony Saunders and Pettitte. At the time, Saunders was like 3-13 orsomething like that, but his secondary numbers were no worse, and maybe even a bit better, than Pettitte's across the board. Saunders ended up 6-15; Pettitte 16-11.

Ortiz has pitched for good teams him entire career. We'll see what he does with the D-Backs.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

That's why I said he's a "rich man's" Estes. I don't care about his wins - when you play for good teams, you should expect to win 12-18 games a year. I just know that I wouldn't put my team in a position to have to lean on Ortiz - and giving him $30M+ for 4 years is insane.

Compare Estes and Ortiz from ages 24 through 28 and tell me you don't see similarities. Ortiz's WHIP makes his OAVG less impressive - in comparison to Estes, yes, he does look better. But we're talking about Shawn Estes! I could easily see Ortiz fall off the side of the mound Estes-style. Pitching for a less-than-impressive D-Backs team should give him the chance to do just that.

I agree that the D-Backs overpaid. But Ortiz has had ERAs of 3.29, 3.61, 3.82 and 4.13 over the past four seasons. That's heads and shoulders better than any 4-year chunk of Estes' career. Plus, Estes and Ortiz are the same age and while Estes has been in steady decline over the past three seasons, Ortiz has been consistent with an ERAs mostly in the mid to high 3s. If Ortiz was like Estes he would have started his decline back in 2002 instead of posting an ERA in the mid 3s.

Of course, in the ironys of all ironys, both Estes and Ortiz may end up pitching for the DBacks in 2005. Let me tell you how excited that makes me right now Here's hoping Arizona goes with one of the younger guys or atleast gets Estes on the cheap and makes him earn a spot as the No. 5 starter.

[Bearcat729]

There is rumors that the Braves are going to try and fill their outfield hole with Austin Kearns

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Arles

I agree that the D-Backs overpaid. But Ortiz has had ERAs of 3.29, 3.61, 3.82 and 4.13 over the past four seasons. That's heads and shoulders better than any 4-year chunk of Estes' career. Plus, Estes and Ortiz are the same age and while Estes has been in steady decline over the past three seasons, Ortiz has been consistent with an ERAs mostly in the mid to high 3s. If Ortiz was like Estes he would have started his decline back in 2002 instead of posting an ERA in the mid 3s.

Of course, in the ironys of all ironys, both Estes and Ortiz may end up pitching for the DBacks in 2005. Let me tell you how excited that makes me right now Here's hoping Arizona goes with one of the younger guys or atleast gets Estes on the cheap and makes him earn a spot as the No. 5 starter.

The point being that Estes spent last year in Colorado for one, and didnt have Andrew Jones behind him in CF for 2 years- all of which serve to make Ortiz look a hell of a lot better than he is. Ortiz is better, but barely - Ortiz wont end up with an ERA under 4 this year at alll.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

The point being that Estes spent last year in Colorado for one, and didnt have Andrew Jones behind him in CF for 2 years- all of which serve to make Ortiz look a hell of a lot better than he is.

Atlanta had the 21st ranked defense in baseball last season - not exactly a pitcher's dream.

Ortiz is better, but barely - Ortiz wont end up with an ERA under 4 this year at alll.

I don't know that anyone expects an ERA under 4. Arizona has a pretty big hitter's park. As I've said before, I would like to see 16 wins and a 4.25 ERA from Ortiz. If he does that, I will be happy with what Arizona got.

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by Arles

Atlanta had the 21st ranked defense in baseball last season - not exactly a pitcher's dream.

I'm not disputing it ... but what metric ranked them 21st? I'm just curious.

I don't know that anyone expects an ERA under 4. Arizona has a pretty big hitter's park. As I've said before, I would like to see 16 wins and a 4.25 ERA from Ortiz. If he does that, I will be happy with what Arizona got.

Wins are as almost as dependent on the team's offense as they are on the pitcher. I'd guess Ortiz is looking at an ERA in the high 4's.

Put it this way: Brandon Webb last year was better than Russ Ortiz. Ortiz's propensity for walks and HRs, combined with playing in the BOB is going to leave you cursing a lot of innings like this:

K
BB
F8
1B
BB
HR
K

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

I'm not disputing it ... but what metric ranked them 21st? I'm just curious.

It's hard to quantify team fielding, but Atlanta ranked 21st in both team fielding % and errors. So, that atleast gives a ballpark on their play in 04.

Wins are as almost as dependent on the team's offense as they are on the pitcher. I'd guess Ortiz is looking at an ERA in the high 4's.

Put it this way: Brandon Webb last year was better than Russ Ortiz. Ortiz's propensity for walks and HRs, combined with playing in the BOB is going to leave you cursing a lot of innings like this:

Webb had a very bad season from a walks standpoint because Arizona's defense was so poor (29th in Fielding and Errors). He allowed 30 more runs than Earned runs because of all the errors Arizona had with Cintron, Hairston and Hillendbrand. Thankfully, all three have been replaced with above average to very good defensive players for 05. There was a great article in the local papers that said Webb was trying to strike out more people (he's a GB pitcher) because of all the errors and started to walk a lot more people as the season went on.

Still, even with the 119 walks, he still had a 3.59 ERA (20th in MLB). I expect him to have another nice season with the defensive improvements. As to Ortiz, I would expect a year similar to what he had in Atlanta.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Arles

Atlanta had the 21st ranked defense in baseball last season - not exactly a pitcher's dream.


I don't know that anyone expects an ERA under 4. Arizona has a pretty big hitter's park. As I've said before, I would like to see 16 wins and a 4.25 ERA from Ortiz. If he does that, I will be happy with what Arizona got.

Using what - Fielding Percentage ? Defensive Efficiency has them at 17th.
FE punishes range, and is the kind of thing people cite to make Derek Jeter look good.

[dawgfan]

The Tacoma paper is reporting the M's will sign Pokey Reese to a 1-year deal for about $2M to be their starting SS, relegating top prospect Jose Lopez back to AAA Tacoma, and in a related move will sell Jolbert Cabrera to a Japanese League team. The Reese signing will likely preclude the M's from signing a free agent pitcher (Odalis Perez was reportedly their top target) and will require them to trade for a starter instead, likely using either Randy Winn or Raul Ibanez as trade bait.

I don't get this move at all. Reese is simply an awful hitter, and there's no way his glove work is good enough to make up for how bad a hitter he is. I suspect Lopez is already a better player than Reese, certainly a much better hitter, and his defense was always rated above-average in the minors. Compounding this error is the fact it seems to take the M's out of the hunt for Perez, who would've made a great addition to the M's pitching staff.

[Alan T]

So you are disputing between the 17th and 21st best? Thats not really that far apart. EIther way you would probably be safe to say roughly 60% of the league had a better defense than them

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So you are disputing between the 17th and 21st best? Thats not really that far apart. EIther way you would probably be safe to say roughly 60% of the league had a better defense than them

Well, DE by itself is not the best measure either, and isnt neccessarily a good predictive force. Im looking to find some other numbers, but Im trying to actually work as welll.. .

[CentralMassHokie]

Glaus, Clayton, and Counsell are going to be big upgrades defensively?

Maybe a few years ago. None are stellar defensively now.

Using Clay Davenports Fielding Runs Above Average stat, Glaus has been below average in every season but two in his career, most recently 3 years ago. With his injury status, I think you're looking at Hillenbrand-esque defense at 3B, at best.

Royce Clayton used to be very good, decline to good, then to average, and last season to bad. At age 35, I don't know what you're expecting from him. For comparison, Clayton was -12 last season. Alex Cintron was -8. So, probably not a big upgrade here.

Counsell had a decent season defensively last season, but for his career is about average defensively as a second baseman.

At firstbase, you're looking at Green, Tracy, or Hillenbrand. Hilly's got a decent glove at 1B, but it seems like he's on the outs with the Dbacks. They haven't updated Tracy's info, but he's such a poor hitter that I doubt his glove could make up for it. Green was abysmal at 1B last season for the Dodgers, and has pretty much bounced between slightly below and slightly above average in RF.

I understand the need to be optimistic about your home team, but the Diamondbacks' offseason has been a huge risk/reward offseason (much like the Mariners). If Glaus stays healthy, he's a good signing (but overpaid). If Green bounces back, he's probably a good pickup. If Clayton and Counsell can stem the decline of age and mediocrity, they may perform as well as the guys they're replacing. If Ortiz finds his control, he may be able to survive the BOB.

More likely, Green or Glaus get hurt, Ortiz pitches like normal, maybe with a bit of a decline due to age and use, and Clayton/Counsell are replaced midseason by younger players.

The Dbacks will be better than last season. They're still going to finish last in the NL West.

[Ksyrup]

What CMH said.

[Ksyrup]

From an article in the East Valley Tribune:


"These transactions leave us in an economic position that’s well within budget and enables us to add talent," D-Backs general partner Ken Kendrick said.

"We would like another starting pitcher. Once these are done, we will be in position to be aggressive as to who our center fielder would be and who our other starting pitcher would be."

Yet another deal is in the works; infielder Shea Hillenbrand will be traded once the other matters are finalized, a major league source said. Toronto is believed to be the leading destination, with Florida also a possibility. Arizona is expected to seek only a minor leaguer in return, since Hillenbrand is expendable after the signing of third baseman Troy Glaus and the move of Chad Tracy to first base, and may have to include cash.

In addition, another major league source said, Arizona may pursue Oakland’s Barry Zito or Florida’s A.J. Burnett without having to surrender Vazquez."



That's got to be an Arizona pipe dream, right? Would Oakland seriously consider dealing all 3 of their aces in one offseason? What could Arizona give them, Webb and a couple of prospects?