2008 Financials Thread

[Noop]

Thank you to those who answered my questions your input is very much appreciated.

[MikeVic]

Their customer service is open until midnight EST apparently, so I'll give them a call tonight.

It made some sense to be taxed on U.S. stock market gains. 30% seems like a lot, but whatever.

I just want to make sure it's not on savings account money too. NoSkilz is right, I want this to be more of a savings account where I can try out stocks and funds occasionally. I just think it's such a hassle to get this U.S. SSN. It says on the form that the SSN itself will take 4-6 weeks!

[MikeVic]

Err, Tax ID # I mean. Not SSN.

[Flasch186]

end-ish of day

Well on what I consider to be a misinterpretation of the retail sales numbers the stock market continued its upswing today. Led by a 30% jump in First Solar (FSLR) and Big tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) the markets gained quite a bit of steam...all in the face of my short position. Once again, the market does exactly the opposite (short term) of what I think finishing just off of their highs.

The president signs the rebate bill so perhaps that added a bit of emotional fuel to the rally but I doubt it added much.

My wife owns 3 shares of FSLR so she proceeds to rub that in today while I watch the market rub my face in it's rally. I have been playing long this whole time and the day I go short it decides to go North? Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

All of a sudden there will be no recession? All of a sudden things are looking good? I dont think so.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

end-ish of day

Well on what I consider to be a misinterpretation of the retail sales numbers the stock market continued its upswing today. Led by a 30% jump in First Solar (FSLR) and Big tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) the markets gained quite a bit of steam...all in the face of my short position. Once again, the market does exactly the opposite (short term) of what I think finishing just off of their highs.

The president signs the rebate bill so perhaps that added a bit of emotional fuel to the rally but I doubt it added much.

My wife owns 3 shares of FSLR so she proceeds to rub that in today while I watch the market rub my face in it's rally. I have been playing long this whole time and the day I go short it decides to go North? Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

All of a sudden there will be no recession? All of a sudden things are looking good? I dont think so.

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

From what I gather and expect these government number will be revised in months to come. When taking out the autosales and gasoline retailer sales and a light tick up in clothing we see downward trends scattered throughout the retail sector.

I suspect that on the back of the individual retailer's reports on same store sales this will be an outlier.

Due to the above, you should go LONG the market and buy stocks that signal no recession because as we know, what i think is the exact opposite of what will be true.

Originally Posted by Yahoo finance Article

The 0.3 percent rise in January retail sales, which followed a drop during December, alleviated some of the market's worries that consumers were retrenching because of rising fuel prices, a faltering real estate sector and a choppy stock market. Analysts had expected a 0.3 percent decline in January sales.

However, another report from the department showed that U.S. business inventories grew a little more than expected in December. The data could be a sign of an involuntary buildup of unsold goods on store shelves amid the economic slowdown.

The data was not enough to offset optimism during the session. Stocks have mostly risen in recent days as investors tried to determine whether Wall Street has reached a bottom or whether further sluggishness in the economy will send stocks lower.

"So far this week there has been a positive bias, but I think what you're seeing is people taking a very cautious approach," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy at I.A. Englander & Co. "There is no great rush to jump in, and the preservation of capital is more important than growth at this moment."

[NoSkillz]

The TSX was up for the fourth day out of the last five, rising 1.49%. Nice bounce back from yesterday's sell-off.

I had a big day, gaining over 3% on the strength of Agrium's (AGU - TSX: +4.5%) great earnings and Research in Motion's bounce back day after their service went down for three hours on Monday (RIM - TSX: +5.3%).

I purchased some more AGU early in the day and gained about a dollar/share by the session's close so I'm happy about that. Again, I plan on holding until it cracks $70.00/share.

XMA, the ETF fund I recommended earlier, was only up about 1.4% today, with the gains on AGU being weighed down somewhat by the selloff on Potash (POT - TSX).

Still, another great day for me that saw me recover from a 2.7% loss the day previous.

Up and down she goes! I love the market!

[Flasch186]

I assume you think the AG momentum play has not broken down and that after this breather will begin another bull run on global growth?

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

From what I gather and expect these government number will be revised in months to come. When taking out the autosales and gasoline retailer sales and a light tick up in clothing we see downward trends scattered throughout the retail sector.

I suspect that on the back of the individual retailer's reports on same store sales this will be an outlier.

Due to the above, you should go LONG the market and buy stocks that signal no recession because as we know, what i think is the exact opposite of what will be true.

Good stuff.

At this point, it's quite apparent that the market is just BEGGING for good news of any kind...when it hits, the bulls come out to drive prices up.

The good feelings likely won't last, as you've pointed out...regardless, there's money to be made in either case.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I assume you think the AG momentum play has not broken down and that after this breather will begin another bull run on global growth?

To be honest, I don't expect to hold AGU for a very long period of time but the very positive earnings will continue to fuel the segment's momentum for the short term.

I'm still quite bullish on that sector though for the next six months but I don't see the momentum continuing at the same pace as what we saw in 2007, with close to 50% gains in certain fertilizer stocks.

For instance, I love Potash as a company but I just don't see enough value at it's current price to pull the trigger. If there is a sell-off into the mid-$130s, it becomes attractive to me as a potential buy.

I see a bit of an opportunity on Agrium right now but I expect the level of support to drop once the stock cracks $70/share, triggering a selloff.

I can sum it up by saying that I think this particular segment will outperform the rest of the market over the next little while and that alone makes it a pretty good play. I read something earlier today that supports my theory and I'll try to post it later tonight or early tomorrow.

[Flasch186]

Well I fully expect to sell my short position when the market drops a bunch and I can get profitable there (as I expect so it may never happen and this will be the longest bull run in history) and rotate into cash where I can pull the trigger, at some point, on a post-recession leadout like Apple.

[Flasch186]

Afterhours

Morgan Stanley and Bear actually did a Mortgage backed bond deal at 1.2 Million (check that couldve been B as in billions). So there is now a price tag on some mortgage backed securities. Is this a good or bad thing? Probably both, good in that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Bad because Im short the F'n market and it is probably going to go up tomorrow (now you could say because I said this it is likely to go down but I will always say that my $ overrides my verbiage in determining the direction of the market).

[path12]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

Most department stores had problems, and inventories aren't clearing as fast as usual, which is going to cause deeper discounting and delays in the pipeline at some point.

[Flasch186]

February 14

Jobless claims numbers come out this morning.

Overnight Asia soared.

Bernanke and Paulson speak before Congress today.

In my heart of hearts I suspect that we're going to have another run down at some point and I thought it would be coming sooner rather than later. I have left my short play and hope that we do not continue a massive bullrun at just the wrong time for me. I plan on holding SDS at least for a little while.

UBS posted a massive 4th qtr loss which actually turned them negative for all of 2007....a first.

Comcast posted a major 4th Qtr. gain as consumers spent more on Cable TV. I interpret this to mean that Consumers are tightening up their spending outside the home and compensate by "bundling" and by adding some movie channels at home. I doubt it's because everyone feels really good about their pocketbook so they spent more simply on TV at home while spending more at Darden restaurants, movies, etc.

NY Gov. Elliott Spitzer has put on his gloves regarding this subprime mess and has his sites set on Mortgage lenders, Bond insurers, and mentions complicity when it comes to regulators and administration.

[Fidatelo]

Couldn't the increase in cable TV earnings come from people upgrading to HD channels? I'm not sure how it works in the States, but up here it is more expensive than regular or even digital cable.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Couldn't the increase in cable TV earnings come from people upgrading to HD channels? I'm not sure how it works in the States, but up here it is more expensive than regular or even digital cable.

from an article reporting on its earnings:

Among its business segments, Comcast said video revenue rose by 6 percent to $4.5 billion in the quarter. The average cost per customer rose to $61.72 a month from $58.19, which could be a combination of higher prices and more services ordered.

The number of basic subscribers fell by 94,000, compared to a gain of 111,000 in 2006. Even its digital sign-ups slowed, adding 523,000 compared with 614,000 in the prior year.

Comcast's high-speed Internet business saw a 14 percent revenue gain to $1.7 billion. But the company added 331,000 new customers compared with 490,000 in 2006. The average cost per customer fell, as well, to $42.44 from $42.89 a month, perhaps reflecting the effect of competition.

Comcast's phone revenue rose by 73 percent to $523 million. The company signed up 604,000 digital voice subscribers compared with 510,000 in the prior year. However, its circuit-switched business lost 128,000 accounts as Comcast continues to exit this market.

The average cost per digital voice customers fell to $40.34 a month from $43.05.

[Flasch186]

end of day

So Bernanke went to the hill today and told them what I think most of us already knew: things are looking worse and the risks are to the downside.
He added that he and the FOMC would be willing to lower rates as needed.

The market gave something back today in the way of a -175 points.

My shortplay served as a hedge against my long positions although Im still down on it since dipping my toe in. My other holdings fell:

Walmart (WMT) -1.36%
Cisco (CSCO) -2.2%
XLF -.74%

My short SDS +.98

I shouldve sold my WMT yesterday on the run up.

[Kodos]

Just curious. How much are you charged for each transaction? (Just asking because it seems like unless the amounts you are trading are fairly substantial, the transaction fees would significantly eat into your gains.)

[Flasch186]

Total I have about 30k in it and $7per but that will be coming down greatly this year as monies begin to come out of it and back into living expenses. Unless of course the Real Estate market changes overnight

[Kodos]

I edited my question, because it seemed nosier than I intended it to be.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I edited my question, because it seemed nosier than I intended it to be.

eh, I have nothing to hide. Shoot, Duckman thinks Im a piece of fiction anyways

There is no doubt that it does eat some profits (or adds to losses) but I firmly believe that if I can take a profit of say, $500 and give away $14 for it and then miss some losses (like that Google [Goog] dodge) it shouldn't be a hindrance. I'd love to say I can be in it for the long haul but I am under the assumption that 50% of this money will be coming out of the market over the next 2 years while the Real Estate market tries to come back.

[st.cronin]

The real estate market will definitely come back, sooner than people think.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The real estate market will definitely come back, sooner than people think.

eww, I hope youre right but I think it'll take longer than people think (effected regionally)

[SFL Cat]

I don't see the real estate market in Florida coming back in any major way during 2008. If we have another light hurricane season, things could start going the other way next winter.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

I don't see the real estate market in Florida coming back in any major way during 2008. If we have another light hurricane season, things could start going the other way next winter.

....luckily im in NE Florida which should return before S. Florida but that's not saying much.

[Flasch186]

February 15

Markets head to a lower open on the back of a weaker manufacturing report.

My short (SDS) is way up in premarket.

Walmart (WMT), Cisco (CSCO), XLF are down a little bit so in essence, my short is simply turning out to be a hedge which is fine. Let me explain:

With Cisco (CSCO) Im stuck, I bought it so long ago and have bled on it for so long that I feel like it should go much higher and cant cut it loose.

With Wal-mart (WMT) I feel that this is the one retailer who may do well during the downturn. They were already beaten up over some misbets on their apparel and have moved to correct that. The rebate checks may see a large % of them end up at their stores. It truly is a consumer staple as opposed to a retailer, IMO.

XLF, I am betting that this will be what leads us out of the recession so perhaps Im a bit early on this one but this one I have to try and hold through the year.

The short is due to the second leg down I think we're going to have to either retest or break the lows set a few weeks ago.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Considering the lackluster data set we got today and the likelihood of seeing a recession seeming to be more and more of a reality (outside of Sec. Paulson) the markets held up fairly well only down ~40 points or so.

My short position slid from it's high all day to finish up at a breakeven point for me.

My other positions seemed to cancel eachother out.

Markets are closed on Monday and that could be a part of the reason why no strong moves were made today. Noone likes to be unable to make a move if something should happen over the weekend.

[Marc Vaughan]

Disclaimer - I know absolutely nothing about stocks, shares or anything really ... but in the few weeks I've been following things its been fun, I've learnt a lot AND I haven't lost my shirt yet ... misplaced a t-shirt though

I've got chunks in COP (Oil & Gas), GSK (Pharma) and PT (Telecoms) - all are nice solid companies which dish out reasonable dividends. Theory being the markets dodgy presently so in a worst case scenario I'd simply hold on tight and weather things until the market rights itself (however long that takes).

However so far with the exception of GSK they've bucked the market trend and been upwardly mobile, now Warren Buffets started buyiing into GSK I expect that to kick upward also (went up 2% today).

If you consider any of them I'd opt for COP - They upped their dividend payout for this quarter by 15% today (still the lowest out of the 3 companies at 2.07% though).

Then again before you take that seriously - I'm also considering Denny's (DENN) because I like their breakfasts (and because I'm shocked at how cheap it is currently - could easily make a quick kick buck on this when it rises back to 3.5 which seems a nice 'safe' average for the stock from the 2.99 it is now.

PS - I sold out of E-Trade earlier in the week, 10% up within a week, seemed like a decent return. If it drops back under 5.0 then I'll probably dip in again.

[Flasch186]

im attracted to ETrade (ETFC) too. I think it'll get swiped up at some point at a stiff premium. I love Conoco-Phillips (COP) as well. I think it should have a nice run through August when traditionally it starts to shed some of the big earnings.

[bionicgrov]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

on the contrary. That's what this thread is for. Are there any companies you'd like to point out as having a high level of insider buying or selling, in your opinion? Particular companies or price targets you like? Bull or Bearish market? for how long, IYO? etc.

As much as I would like to let you know what stocks I am buying and selling, my job does not permit me to make specific recommendations. I can, however, give sort a "non-employer" sponsored view of what I think is going on in the markets.

I think the March-May timeframe will actually be one of the better buying opportunities in years. And strangely, retail stocks (ETF symbol: RTH) begin to perform very very well before a recession is over.

I really like your train of thought in WMT.

[Flasch186]

my disclaimer is that Im an idiot

[Marc Vaughan]

Are there any companies you'd like to point out as having a high level of insider buying or selling

This is something which intruiges me (the insider buying was one of the reasons I went into E-Trade which worked out nicely ) - I can rummage around and find these metrics on a stock by stock basis but haven't found anywhere on the net which simply dumps a list of stocks where insiders have purchased recently ... any pointers?

[Flasch186]

February 19

And the game starts again today. Sata on inflation and housing this week and the futures look like we'll head for a higher open today.

Wal-Mart today posted its numbers for the 4th wuarter and a 4% gain buoyed by international sales and a focus on lower prices. They revised their top end estimate downward so their premarket price is hedging a tad down but the markets futures again, look very strong at the bell with 2 hours to go.

OPEC stated that they might cut production so it will force oil to continue it's upward climb.

Google (GOOG) is now looking about 530/share when just a few weeks ago it was below the 500 mark. The Nasdaq sure has boosted lastely.

Barclays in England had a very minimal write down which was a nice surprise. There is talk that the death of the consumer might be exaggerated based on WalMart's numbers but I think that that is ridiculous. Wal-Mart is a marketplace for the scared consumer IMO.


Looks like my short position (SDS) is going to get killed at the open. figures, I told you all to do the opposite of what I do.

[Marc Vaughan]

If you liked E-Trade then consider TRADESTATION GROUP INC COM (TRAD).

Its a similar company (http://www.tradestation.com/default_2.shtm) and at the moment has a real lull in their shares.

Their report today seems 'mixed' from what I can see so I'd hold off buying for a couple of days but I'd expect them to claw back up to around 14 from their current 10.3 fairly quickly (company growth appears to be 20%+ per year so imho there's no reason for the price to have dropped so far, especially as they don't appear 'lumbered' with mortgage risks in the way which E-Trade is).

[Flasch186]

After listening to some of the sentiment I wonder if it's time (or I was late, again) to sell the short on it's uptick and ride this market up....when that trade settles I can get into one of the stocks I want to be long in, Like Apple (AAPL).

[Flasch186]

midday

Well as the oil prices have surged today the markets have slowly lost steam and the Daq has turned negative. Google (GOOG) down 20.

Wal-Mart (WMT) is still hanging on to some gains but almost everything sans the commodities is starting to sell off and the DJI is only up 30 right now.

[Flasch186]

end of day

remarkably the day gave back all of its gains and finished negative. Hewlett Packard (HPQ) reports after the bell and may already have (im watching soccer).

All of my holdings finish moderately down except Wal-Mart (WMT).

[MikeVic]

Just an update on my etrade stuff... I called them and asked about the Tax ID#, W-8BEN form, etc.

What I was told is that as long as I send a photocopy of my driver's license, I don't need to send a W-8BEN form. And the driver's license/W-8BEN form is just in case I get U.S. stocks or whatever that pay dividends.

Customer Service was super fast, and there weren't annoying menus to go through. Pleasantly surprised. Hopefully he was right too.

[MikeVic]

Do you guys think the Castro thing will affect any stocks at all? I thought I heard briefly on the news that some stocks rose as a result of this.

[Flasch186]

IMO no, this will have no effect on stocks on the whole. There may be a trade or two but it isnt my bag at all.

Although what do I know. I was doubting myself all day and then the day finished down. I think we will have a substantial move down at some point to test a support level or two before moving forward again. I would like to sell a holding to get ready to move into a longer position in Apple or Google but I cant sell anything right now.

[Flasch186]

February 20

Well today will start out on the down side as we get a lot of information. CPI comes out and if this is higher than expected it could mean that inflation concerns come back on the table whihc would make it harder for the FED to continue to lower rates. We will also get housing numbers today. Some people think that the economy will not turn around, no matter what, until the housing situation is solved. This number today will tell us if the starts has slowed to a point where we are actually clearing out some of the inventory.

[Flasch186]

morning

Well both reports came out and theyre not good.

Inflation is slightly back on the table helped out by $100 / barrel oil.

And housing starts rose BUT December's number was revised ridiculously down which is horrible for the reports credibility. Permits were down however which is more forward looking but not down enough to satisfy some people.

The market is moving downward.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The real estate market will definitely come back, sooner than people think.

I don't know what you were basing this on but I see no way! The signs of inflation have already started to cause the mortgage rates to sky rocket over 6 (6.25%) and I am guessing they will continue to rise. This is on the 30 year fixed rate market which has go to be where most sane people will go when buying a new home this year after the subprime meltdown. If interest rates stay that high there zero chance of the huge existing inventory of fairly new homes getting sold causing more burden on the average person saddle with these properties. For example, we are looking to buy a new home out in the Denver area in April but if the rates continue to go up we will stay put into the summer. I guessing the few buyers out there for new homes will be doing the same. So, if the administration or whoever is expecting a housing recovery anytime in the freeseeable future I got to say fat chance.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

I haven't read the full report but the retail numbers were better than expected based on my research:

"But equities got a boost from data showing that US retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent last month, against expectations for a 0.3 per cent decline. Core sales, which exclude cars, also increased by 0.3 per cent."

Turns out this is wrong. The report was/is not adjusted for inflation. All of the "gains" were in the form of food and energy price increases.

[Flasch186]

IMO rates will cap out at about 6.5% and be much lower as we get near summer. I hope this is true anyways, i need to refi at some point into a 30 yr. fixed as my ARM adjusts in Oct of '09.

[Flasch186]

midday

the market was down almost 80 on the bad news noted above but because I own the short of the market it has rebounded and is now in positive territory. If I sell my short the market will crash so Ill sit tight

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Turns out this is wrong. The report was/is not adjusted for inflation. All of the "gains" were in the form of food and energy price increases.

These reports are rarely, if ever, adjusted for inflation.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

FROM FEB. 13th

The TSX was up for the fourth day out of the last five, rising 1.49%. Nice bounce back from yesterday's sell-off.

I had a big day, gaining over 3% on the strength of Agrium's (AGU - TSX: +4.5%) great earnings and Research in Motion's bounce back day after their service went down for three hours on Monday (RIM - TSX: +5.3%).

I purchased some more AGU early in the day and gained about a dollar/share by the session's close so I'm happy about that. Again, I plan on holding until it cracks $70.00/share.

XMA, the ETF fund I recommended earlier, was only up about 1.4% today, with the gains on AGU being weighed down somewhat by the selloff on Potash (POT - TSX).

Still, another great day for me that saw me recover from a 2.7% loss the day previous.

Up and down she goes! I love the market!

Hopefully you came along for the ride on AGU this past week.

I topped up with some shares at $65.29/share on the 13th and sold it off today for $71.35, a nice 9.2% gain in a week.

I'm still very high on the stock and the segment in general but will look for the inevitable down day to rebuy back in.

XMA (TSX) continues to ride high as well but again, I'm not currently holding that ETF, instead buying some of the holdings within the fund on a direct basis.

[MikeVic]

I sent my application for etrade this morning! It'll be a while longer, but hopefully I'm on the stock trying circuit soon.

[MikeVic]

dola,
I would've liked to have bought that index fund awhile ago.