2007-08 Baseball Offseason

[dawgfan]

Put me in the "not that impressed by Garland" camp. He doesn't strike people out, he doesn't get ground balls - about the best thing he does is not walk a lot of guys, along with staying healthy. He's basically been league-average, but had a couple years there where the White Sox scored a lot of runs for him and he was able to win 18.

I don't know enough about how Angels Stadium and New Comiskey play in terms of fly balls to really make a judgment about what to expect out of him next year, but it appears as though he's due for a fall, especially if his home runs per fly ball numbers regress toward the mean, his groundball percentage stays low and his strikeout rate continues to drop.

I don't think it's a bad deal for Anaheim, but I'm not sure it makes them much better.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Put me in the "not that impressed by Garland" camp. He doesn't strike people out, he doesn't get ground balls - about the best thing he does is not walk a lot of guys, along with staying healthy. He's basically been league-average, but had a couple years there where the White Sox scored a lot of runs for him and he was able to win 18.

I don't know enough about how Angels Stadium and New Comiskey play in terms of fly balls to really make a judgment about what to expect out of him next year, but it appears as though he's due for a fall, especially if his home runs per fly ball numbers regress toward the mean, his groundball percentage stays low and his strikeout rate continues to drop.

I don't think it's a bad deal for Anaheim, but I'm not sure it makes them much better.

I think its more about the value they get more than anything else. As a bargaining chip Garland will get much more than Cabrera if they decided to flip him to another team. A 28 year old inning eater with a career ERA+ of 106 doesn't sound all that hot, but in a market where Carlos Silva is asking for more than $8 million per its pretty nice.

The Angels managed to swap an aging SS coming off a career year for a pitcher that has been fairly reliable the last 3 years and is in his prime.

This is a bad deal for the White Sox. This an excellent move in terms of the value trading hands for the Angels.

[ISiddiqui]

Well, in addition it opens up a spot for a highly regarded prospect for the Angels. If they decide to keep Garland, he's a 4th Starter that they got for an average bat / above average glove SS.

[ISiddiqui]

Rollins wins the NL MVP?! WTF?!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Rollins wins the NL MVP?! WTF?!

Dude was clutch this year.

[rkmsuf]

Jimmy likes the MVP.

[ISiddiqui]

I'm looking at the numbers and they just gave the NL MVP to a guy who wasn't even in the Top 10 in the NL in OBP or SLG. Are you kidding me?

Usually if its someone I consider somewhat deserving, whatever. But Rollins isn't even close. If they wanted to pick a Philly, pick Utley!!! At least Utley was 8th in the NL in adjusted OPS+. Rollins.. not in the Top 10. Hell, not close to it.

At least Utley would be a mediocre choice. Rollins is just a BAD choice.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I'm looking at the numbers and they just gave the NL MVP to a guy who wasn't even in the Top 10 in the NL in OBP or SLG. Are you kidding me?

Usually if its someone I consider somewhat deserving, whatever. But Rollins isn't even close. If they wanted to pick a Philly, pick Utley!!! At least Utley was 8th in the NL in adjusted OPS+. Rollins.. not in the Top 10. Hell, not close to it.

At least Utley would be a mediocre choice. Rollins is just a BAD choice.

Eh, he finished 8th in WS. I think David Wright was the MVP, but it wasn't quite the idiocy of the Morneau victory last year. Regarding Utley, remember that he missed a month and that hurt his counting stats.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Eh, he finished 8th in WS. I think David Wright was the MVP, but it wasn't quite the idiocy of the Morneau victory last year. Regarding Utley, remember that he missed a month and that hurt his counting stats.

Wright was 4th and Pujols was 9th. Utley was 8th.

I agree that this isn't quite as bad as Morneau last year, but the guys that really should have won didn't come close. That wasn't just picking the wrong guy, it was horrible voting.

Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard shouldn't have been in the top 10, let alone both being in the top 5.

[Atocep]

What sucks is they had actually been doing pretty well with the awards this year. I was actually starting to think they were looking at meaningful stats rather than clutch and hustle and other stupid shit.

I seriously have no idea how they chose Jimmy Rollins. What stat or intangible says Jimmy Rollins was the MVP in the National League this year?

[MikeVic]

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=150093

Soriano looks like a beaver in this picture.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Eh, he finished 8th in WS. I think David Wright was the MVP, but it wasn't quite the idiocy of the Morneau victory last year. Regarding Utley, remember that he missed a month and that hurt his counting stats.

Saying it wasn't as bad as Mourneau is like saying, well, at least your team wasn't as bad as the Devil Rays. That's not high praise. Yes, Rollins did finish 8th in the NL in Win Shares, which also goes to show that it wasn't a good pick for the award.

[Young Drachma]

Gotta love bias. Man...all of those kids are gonna flee Colorado like the plague when they get the chance.

[Chief Rum]

Rollins was a GG winner, and stole 41 bases. He and Granderson were the first players to get 20 or more in the power hit stats and SBs in how long? And he (from what I read) seemed to be the leader of that team as they went on their charge to the playoffs.

I understand where you guys are coming from, but I'm not too put off by Rollins winning. There were plenty of comparable candidates, but there's a bugaboo for all of them, IMO (including Rollins).

[Young Drachma]

Rollins playing in Philadelphia is what helped him more than anything. Not that he's undeserving. He was a beast this season. But...the end of season hype that was generated made him the winner more than anything.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Rollins playing in Philadelphia is what helped him more than anything. Not that he's undeserving. He was a beast this season. But...the end of season hype that was generated made him the winner more than anything.

I'll disagree with the he's not undeserving part, but the rest I agree. He played on a team that made it into the playoffs because the team ahead of them had an amazin' collapse when they got hot at the end of the season. A couple losses more, or wins by said amazin' collapse team, and David Wright wins this MVP Award in a wash.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I'll disagree with the he's not undeserving part, but the rest I agree. He played on a team that made it into the playoffs because the team ahead of them had an amazin' collapse when they got hot at the end of the season. A couple losses more, or wins by said amazin' collapse team, and David Wright wins this MVP Award in a wash.

Yup, agree completely.

[Logan]

I really don't have a problem with Rollins (or even Holliday) winning. But if Wright wasn't Wright during August and September, the Mets historic collapse wouldn't have happened...because they wouldn't have been in 1st place on September 1st and therefore would've finished 6 games back of the Phils.

In August, he hit .394 with 6 HRs, 21 RBIs, .516 OBP, .657 SLG.

In September, he hit .352 with 6 HRs, 20 RBIs, .432 OBP, .602 SLG.

[MrBug708]

Indians signed Kobayashi. I'm assuming the former hot dog eating champion has a brother who can play?

[MrBug708]

Dola

Report on the radio here said that Hunter is close to signing with the ChiSox?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Dola

Report on the radio here said that Hunter is close to signing with the ChiSox?

Wouldn't surprise me. I have been seeing Internet reports of the possibility for more than a day now.

[highfiveoh]

Can't see Hunter signing this soon. Not unless he doesn't want to get every possible offer before signing.

[JS19]

Originally Posted by Atocep

What sucks is they had actually been doing pretty well with the awards this year. I was actually starting to think they were looking at meaningful stats rather than clutch and hustle and other stupid shit.

I seriously have no idea how they chose Jimmy Rollins. What stat or intangible says Jimmy Rollins was the MVP in the National League this year?

Not trying to turn this into a stats guy v. clutch guy debate, but what meaningful stats are you speaking of?? To me, a guy who comes up with a base hit with a man in scoring position, or keeps an inning alive, or does anything that helps his team win, or put his team in position to win, is much more valuable than a guy who hits a grand slam in the 9th inning when the team is already winning by 8 runs. That's obviously a very simple example, but numbers don't always tell the story when in comes to MVP's, IMO.

[lungs]

Mets fans,

Have fun with Johnny Estrada. I'm sure you'll enjoy the countless times he swings on a 3-1 count and hits into a double play.

Not to mention the fact that he can't throw base stealers out.

I guess we got crap in return, but hey, at least our crap won't be playing every day.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by lungs

Not to mention the fact that he can't throw base stealers out.

Mets fans haven't seen a base runner thrown out since sometime in the '90s.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Mets fans haven't seen a base runner thrown out since sometime in the '90s.

Who was the catcher before Hundley?

[dervack]

That's ok, Brewers are going to be stuck with Jason Kendall. I'm sure a throw to second he made in October should be arriving at any second.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JS19

Not trying to turn this into a stats guy v. clutch guy debate, but what meaningful stats are you speaking of?? To me, a guy who comes up with a base hit with a man in scoring position, or keeps an inning alive, or does anything that helps his team win, or put his team in position to win, is much more valuable than a guy who hits a grand slam in the 9th inning when the team is already winning by 8 runs. That's obviously a very simple example, but numbers don't always tell the story when in comes to MVP's, IMO.

When you can show evidence that its a skill and part of a player's overall ability I'll listen. Hitting with runners in scoring position is a stat the fluctuates greatly from year to year and when the sample size gets close to a full season it ends up being close the player's career averages. Same for close and late and every other form of situational hitting.

As for the guy with the meaningless homer, if that guy is A-Rod I'd take him over a player like Derek Jeter or David Eckstein or countless other inferior players that know how to win every single time.

For Rollins, I simply asked somone to point out why he should be MVP, because I see no reason at all. His numbers don't show it. Him being the leader of a playoff team doesn't make him the most valuable player in the league. Best case anyone can make is Rollins finishes 3rd in the MVP behind Wright and Holliday. Pujols and Utley were also considerably better.

If the numbers aren't the only thing that decides who the MVP is, then what is taken into consideration? If its intangibles, then what are media members that rarely get to see Rollins play doing voting for him based on that?

To debunk the clutch factor in the voting for Rollins:

Season: .296/.344/.531
RISP: .272/.339/.538
RISP 2 OUT: .239/.302/.534
Close and Late: .255/.318/.490

I'm simply curious as to what pushed a person that was, at best, the 3rd or 4th best candidate to the top.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

When you can show evidence that its a skill and part of a player's overall ability I'll listen. Hitting with runners in scoring position is a stat the fluctuates greatly from year to year and when the sample size gets close to a full season it ends up being close the player's career averages. Same for close and late and every other form of situational hitting.

As for the guy with the meaningless homer, if that guy is A-Rod I'd take him over a player like Derek Jeter or David Eckstein or countless other inferior players that know how to win every single time.

For Rollins, I simply asked somone to point out why he should be MVP, because I see no reason at all. His numbers don't show it. Him being the leader of a playoff team doesn't make him the most valuable player in the league. Best case anyone can make is Rollins finishes 3rd in the MVP behind Wright and Holliday. Pujols and Utley were also considerably better.

If the numbers aren't the only thing that decides who the MVP is, then what is taken into consideration? If its intangibles, then what are media members that rarely get to see Rollins play doing voting for him based on that?

To debunk the clutch factor in the voting for Rollins:

Season: .296/.344/.531
RISP: .272/.339/.538
RISP 2 OUT: .239/.302/.534
Close and Late: .255/.318/.490

I'm simply curious as to what pushed a person that was, at best, the 3rd or 4th best candidate to the top.

Once again, not saying I disagree with you, but...speed? Defense?

[Young Drachma]

If defense matters so much, Tulo should've been ROY.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

If defense matters so much, Tulo should've been ROY.

Different award, different qualifications under consideration.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Once again, not saying I disagree with you, but...speed? Defense?

See, thats where I would hope the voters would look a little deeper than just the basic stats. Rollins stole 41 bases and a high success rate, thats great. But his OBP was pretty average and he's a leadoff hitter. He won a gold glove, which I'm sure was a huge selling point to voters, but if voters did just a tiny bit of research they'd see that Rollins really didn't deserve the gold glove as there were easily 3-4 (if not more) players that should have gotten it over him.

The reason I was optimistic before was the ROY voting in the NL was incredibly close even though Braun set a MLB record for SLG for a rookie and put up some jaw dropping offensive numbers. CC Sabathia won the Cy Young despite not reaching the magical 20 win mark and putting up similar numbers at first glance as a 20 game winner. Even the Gold Glove voting this year wasn't horrible (No Derek Jeter!). The biggest head scratcher was probably Rollins, actually.

So what I'm saying is, I really did think voters were starting to turn the corner and after seeing how awful the voting for NL MVP was, I feel like its back to square one.

BTW, the bad voting goes beyond Rollins, as I pointed out earlier. Wright was 4th, Utley was 8th, Pujols was 9th.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by lungs

Mets fans,

Have fun with Johnny Estrada. I'm sure you'll enjoy the countless times he swings on a 3-1 count and hits into a double play.

Not to mention the fact that he can't throw base stealers out.

I guess we got crap in return, but hey, at least our crap won't be playing every day.

Estrada won't play everyday. With the options we had, having him as a lefty-righty platoon with Castro was definitely the best choice.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=150093

Soriano looks like a beaver in this picture.

Good catch

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Indians signed Kobayashi. I'm assuming the former hot dog eating champion has a brother who can play?

That's why the last name sounds familiar! I couldn't place it when I saw the news blurb the other day.

SI

[Logan]

Famous character in my favorite movie of all time, The Usual Suspects.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Logan

Estrada won't play everyday. With the options we had, having him as a lefty-righty platoon with Castro was definitely the best choice.

When the Brewers traded for him, I wondered why teams pass him around like a hot potato.

You'll find out soon enough. At least he won't be playing every day like you say.

But I'm not too excited about the prospects of Jason Kendall. It won't be so bad if it's the Kendall that showed up for the Cubs. He'll at least take a few pitches here and there. Estrada flails away at everything and plays crappy defense to top it off.

[Logan]

I'll take that hot potato over another year of Paul Lo Duca, signing Michael Barrett, or giving up a good prospect for Ramon Hernandez.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'll take that hot potato over another year of Paul Lo Duca, signing Michael Barrett, or giving up a good prospect for Ramon Hernandez.

Estrada and LoDuca were actually fairly similar last year:

Estrada: .278/.296/.403
LoDuca: .272/.311/.378

Estrada had an OPS+ of 78 while LoDuca had an OPS+ of 80. Basically, LoDuca will get on base slightly more, while Estrada will give a little more pop. I will say that Estrada was hurt last year and recently had surgery to fix some things.

But the Mets may not even keep Estrada, as it looks like they will still look for catching according to this article:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...estrada-5.html

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

See, thats where I would hope the voters would look a little deeper than just the basic stats. Rollins stole 41 bases and a high success rate, thats great. But his OBP was pretty average and he's a leadoff hitter. He won a gold glove, which I'm sure was a huge selling point to voters, but if voters did just a tiny bit of research they'd see that Rollins really didn't deserve the gold glove as there were easily 3-4 (if not more) players that should have gotten it over him.

The reason I was optimistic before was the ROY voting in the NL was incredibly close even though Braun set a MLB record for SLG for a rookie and put up some jaw dropping offensive numbers. CC Sabathia won the Cy Young despite not reaching the magical 20 win mark and putting up similar numbers at first glance as a 20 game winner. Even the Gold Glove voting this year wasn't horrible (No Derek Jeter!). The biggest head scratcher was probably Rollins, actually.

So what I'm saying is, I really did think voters were starting to turn the corner and after seeing how awful the voting for NL MVP was, I feel like its back to square one.

BTW, the bad voting goes beyond Rollins, as I pointed out earlier. Wright was 4th, Utley was 8th, Pujols was 9th.

Actually, given that Wright won a GG (albeit Chipper Jones questions that) and also stole 34 bases, along with his better offensive numbers, I would have given it to Wright as well. Still, I can see where the voters are coming from.

[TazFTW]

Torii Hunter to the Angels.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by TazFTW

Torii Hunter to the Angels.

Yup. Color me stunned. Hunter was one of my fave non-Angel players, but I didn't see this one coming at all. The fan of Hunter in me is ecstatic, the Angels fan in me is optimistic but abit confused and curious about what the Angels are doing, and the baseball fan in me is perhaps a little down because this is probably the single biggest step the Angels have taken to separating themselves from baseball in general and moving closer to the Red Sox and Yankees. Signing big to fill a need? Understandable, especially for a big market club. Signing big at a position where we already have too many players, even if we need the power? Hmm...

[dervack]

And a shitload of money too. $18 million a year is quite a price.

[Hammer755]

What an awful signing by the Angels. Hunter is a slightly above average player coming off a career year whose defensive rep is far better than his fielding these days. By year 3 of this deal, I'd be he'll be league average all around.

[sterlingice]

I think Torii's asking price was insanely high but someone was going to pay it. I think saying he'll be league average at age 34 might be a bit of overkill as players with speed do age a little better tho he's only had 2 years well above league average.

As a sidebar- that reminds me of the type of "glass is half empty" hyperbole that abounds with the extreme sabermetric crowd. It's like talking to band snobs- anyone who is good is going to badly regress and the only players with any sort of upside are nobodys who never get a shot and probably never will and there's a reason (see players like Calvin Pickering).

SI

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yup. Color me stunned. Hunter was one of my fave non-Angel players, but I didn't see this one coming at all. The fan of Hunter in me is ecstatic, the Angels fan in me is optimistic but abit confused and curious about what the Angels are doing, and the baseball fan in me is perhaps a little down because this is probably the single biggest step the Angels have taken to separating themselves from baseball in general and moving closer to the Red Sox and Yankees. Signing big to fill a need? Understandable, especially for a big market club. Signing big at a position where we already have too many players, even if we need the power? Hmm...

What's the success behind Anaheim's ability to spend more in recent years?

[MrBug708]

A better owner

[Atocep]

At first glance the dollars look way out of whack, but in a time when baseball is experiencing revenue gains at an astounding rate and are on pace to catch or pass the NFL in the next couple years in total revenue, we're going to see a lot of deals like this. Just like last offseason we're going to see a lot of free agent dollars thrown around that when compared to deals from 3-4 years ago look crazy. However, its just the price of doing business now.

As SI said, Hunter should age well and should be able to remain league average-ish for most of this contract. Not saying this is a good deal or anything right now, just saying you have to ante up to get players in today's market.

The biggest problem with the deal isn't the money, Moreno has plenty of that to throw around, its whether or not this fills any sort of need and I'd have to say no.

On a side note, I'm interested to see how Hunter plays defensively in Anaheim. Its a much better place for outfielders to play defensively. I'm not expecting anything drastic, since Hunter has been more or less league average densively the past couple years, but will be intersting to check at the end of the season.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

A better owner

Was the previous ownership group pocketing the profits?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Was the previous ownership group pocketing the profits?

I ask this with all honesty: were there a lot of profits to pocket? Baseball was in quite a bit worse shape 10 years ago financially and that would have been before the Angels renovated the ballpark. The revenue streams just weren't as big then.

SI