Baseball Offseason 2004-5 Thread

[WSUCougar]

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by WSUCougar

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

VORP is Value Over Replacement Player. It measures "the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances."

http://digamma.net/btfwiki/index.php/VORP

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by WSUCougar

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

Vorp, Vorp, Vorp!

[John Galt]

Originally Posted by WSUCougar

I'm not a sabermetrician...how is VORP calculated, and what does it mean?

http://baseballprospectus.com/glossa...wstat&stat=186

That is the basic definition. It is determined by comparing a player versus other players at his position during a given season to determine how many runs over replacement level a player contributes to his team.

[WSUCougar]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Vorp, Vorp, Vorp!

Gold

But back to VORP...this sounds like a hitting stat, or rather I'm not grasping its application to pitchers.

[Bomber]

VORP uses MLV adjusted to replacement level and adjusted for park effects and position for position players and runs allowed for pitchers. A replacement level player is one who is freely available to teams. The level of replacement level is set at different levels by different people. In the past baseball prospectus set replacement level for VORP at:

* 70 points of OPS below league positional average for position players
* 1 RA above league average RA for pitchers

More recently they've moved to VORP replacement level at:

* 80% of the average offensive rate (85% is used for catchers, 75% is used for 1B/DH) for position players
* 1.37 * League RA - 0.66 for starting pitchers
* 1.70 * League RA - 2.27 for relief pitchers

.

For pitchers, VORP is defined as the number of runs a pitcher surrenders below what a replacement level pitcher would have given up in the same number of innings. Replacement level is set at +1.00 above the league average RA.

[korme]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Yeah, but they are the Reds. They GOTTA overpay to get anyone to play there.

I strongly disagree. This is a fantastic franchise with a great baseball history, an improbable World Series sweep in '90, the Big Red Machine in the 70's and one of the first franchises ever started in this league... it's just the fact that we don't try nearly enough in the market, that when we do decide we better make a splash, we overspend so we aren't left with no one.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

I strongly disagree. This is a fantastic franchise with a great baseball history, an improbable World Series sweep in '90, the Big Red Machine in the 70's and one of the first franchises ever started in this league... it's just the fact that we don't try nearly enough in the market, that when we do decide we better make a splash, we overspend so we aren't left with no one.

They may have a good history, but the Free Agent market is invariably a "what have you done for me lately" arena. Since the Reds have not been that great in a while, less people really want to play there.

[CentralMassHokie]

I just read through some older posts and wanted to say that I think the Dodgers and DePodesta have actually had a pretty great offseason.

They've turned Joey Cora has had exactly one average major league season at the plate. He's replaced by Jeff Kent. Defensively, pretty much every single metric says that Kent has been at worst, average, in the field. Adrian Beltre becomes Jose Valentin. That's obviously an offensive and defensive downgrade - though Valentin can hammer righties, which is probably all he be asked to do. A Kent/Perez platoon at 2B, with Kent/Valentin platooning at 3B, and a full season from Choi at 1B -- I'd argue that's at least comparable to the Padres infield and that's assuming Izturis isn't getting any better with the bat (I doubt he will -- and I bet he's gone from the Dodgers in the next year).

JD Drew's in to play LF/RF. He looks to be past his patellar tendinitis, which means that the Dodgers now have 2 very good offensive and defensive outfielders in Drew and Bradley. That's extremely important with the staff that the Dodgers have built. The 3rd/4th OF position is probably Werth/Green, if they're healthy/not traded. Chen, Ledee, and Grabowski probably get worked in there as well. I'd say that it is probably the best all around outfield in the NL West, since the Padres now have a rapidly declining Giles out there. The Giants have Bonds.

Pitching-wise, the Dodgers are playing to their strengths, building a staff who can pitch in the canyonous Chavez Ravine. They're in dire need of another starter, but I'm assuming there's still a trade to come, likely with Green getting shipped out of town.

All in all, I love what the Pads have done, and I think they're probably neck and neck with the Dodgers. Brian Sabean's off his rocker and the Giants have gotten worse in the offseason, so they'll only go as far as Bonds and Schmidt can carry them, which probably is .500 or so. The Diamondbacks -- well, they suck.

[Bearcat729]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

They may have a good history, but the Free Agent market is invariably a "what have you done for me lately" arena. Since the Reds have not been that great in a while, less people really want to play there.

It's not that they have not been good for a while, but that ownership doesn't try, and when they do it ends up a mistake (Barry Larkin at 9 mil a year) Remember that back when Rolen was going to be traded one of the few teams he would accept a trade to was the Reds (Not only would he come here, Bowden had a deal worked out with an extension that ownership over ruled)

A lot of the problem is that a few players start out of the Reds price range, no one expects them to pick up Pedro at 15 mil a year, but I'm sure that if the Reds offered him 15 mil a year he would consider it.

However I know that if he was offered 15 mil by the Reds and 15 mil by the Yankees he would probably go with New York just because he would be assured of the playoffs.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Bomber

Jaret Wright is a big risk and I don't like the signing all that much, but at least he's had that one good year. Sure he's been awful for most of his career, but I'd rather take the risk for potential greatness, rather than settling for definite mediocrity. I'm not familar with Great American Park, but according to ESPN.com its in the top half for home runs allowed. Not quite where Citizens Bank was last year, but with Milton's HR problems I'd expect the balls to be flying out of the park.

Milton gave up roughly the same amount of homers last year at home as he did on the road. I'm glad the phils let him walk, but I'm sort of pissed we traded for him in the first place. I'd rather have kept carlos silva.

[Ragone]

Lima time! :P

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

I just read through some older posts and wanted to say that I think the Dodgers and DePodesta have actually had a pretty great offseason.

They've turned Joey Cora has had exactly one average major league season at the plate. He's replaced by Jeff Kent. Defensively, pretty much every single metric says that Kent has been at worst, average, in the field. Adrian Beltre becomes Jose Valentin. That's obviously an offensive and defensive downgrade - though Valentin can hammer righties, which is probably all he be asked to do. A Kent/Perez platoon at 2B, with Kent/Valentin platooning at 3B, and a full season from Choi at 1B -- I'd argue that's at least comparable to the Padres infield and that's assuming Izturis isn't getting any better with the bat (I doubt he will -- and I bet he's gone from the Dodgers in the next year).

JD Drew's in to play LF/RF. He looks to be past his patellar tendinitis, which means that the Dodgers now have 2 very good offensive and defensive outfielders in Drew and Bradley. That's extremely important with the staff that the Dodgers have built. The 3rd/4th OF position is probably Werth/Green, if they're healthy/not traded. Chen, Ledee, and Grabowski probably get worked in there as well. I'd say that it is probably the best all around outfield in the NL West, since the Padres now have a rapidly declining Giles out there. The Giants have Bonds.

Pitching-wise, the Dodgers are playing to their strengths, building a staff who can pitch in the canyonous Chavez Ravine. They're in dire need of another starter, but I'm assuming there's still a trade to come, likely with Green getting shipped out of town.

All in all, I love what the Pads have done, and I think they're probably neck and neck with the Dodgers. Brian Sabean's off his rocker and the Giants have gotten worse in the offseason, so they'll only go as far as Bonds and Schmidt can carry them, which probably is .500 or so. The Diamondbacks -- well, they suck.

Dodgers have gotten worse this offseason, without question. They have turned Beltre, Finley, Cora, Perez and Lima into Jose Valetine, Drew, and Kent. Offensively, they have been a push at best as I would rather have Beltre, Finley and Cora over the new three. At pitching, they have lost two of their best three starters and replaced them with no one - obviously a downgrade. And, defensively, they have gone from three gold glove-caliber players at CF, 3B and 2B to a liablity and two average guys. The only two moves that the Dodgers are currently rumored to be involved in are shipping Green for someone like Sammy Sosa ( ) and overpaying for Derek Lowe.

The Dodgers will be lucky to finish in third place this season and I would not be surprised if LA finished below San Diego, SF and Arizona.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Win Shares:
Pitcher A: 15.3
Pitcher B: 9.2

VORP
A: 40.3
B: 18.2

K/9:
A: 7.7
B: 7.2

HR/9:
A: 0.5
B: 1.9

BB/9:
A: 3.4
B: 3.4


BABIP (subject to variation- a higher number means he was more unlucky generally, and vice versa)
A: .300
B: .271

Connecting the dots, A was leaps and bounds better and generally appears a far better bet.

C'mon, you're not going to scare me away from a debate citing stats like this: I read BP daily, too. As a stats guy, you should know that one year does not a good career make and over the course of their career, Milton is a shade above mediocrity and steady whereas Wright had one great year piled onto a mound of crap. I've gotta think that Wright's stats were his 90%+ PECOTA percentile. I'll be a believer when he strings together more than one year under the modern Einstein of pitching coaches. There are two likely scenarios for Wright: the Yankees are paying $7M a year for someone regressed slightly from last year or they're paying $7M a year for a steaming pile of stuff that Cleveland turned their noses up at. Cleveland?!? Milton will continue his league average pitching which makes his $8M about $4M more than he should be paid (very average pitchers tend to get in the $3-$5M range these days) but that's still a lot better than paying $7M for pre-2004 Jaret Wright.

SI

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by Arles

The Dodgers will be lucky to finish in third place this season and I would not be surprised if LA finished below San Diego, SF and Arizona.

Not gonna happen.

People grossly overrate Cora based on one close to average offensive season on a team and in a stadium where infield defense isn't nearly as important as it is elsewhere. Offensively, Kent/Perez over Cora should offset Beltre over Kent/Valentin nicely. Add in a full season from Choi, and the infield will be better offensively in 2005 than in 04. Defensively, it's a step down, but Cora to Kent is not nearly the drop people claim it is. Beltre to anyone is a drop, but again, infield defense isn't at a premium in Chavez Ravine.

They moved from Finley to Drew in the outfield. That's a pretty big upgrade both offensively and defensively, as Finley's lost more than a step and will certainly not be worth the money that he's pulling down up the street in Anaheim. The big question is obviously whether or not Werth will be healthy enough to play. With Chin, Ledee, Grabowski, and Werth combining for the 3rd/4th OF spot, the 2005 outfield will be better than the 2004 outfield, even without Green.

As I mentioned, they need to make a move to grab a starting pitcher. Derek Lowe wouldn't be a horrible guy, as he's likely to bounce back some from last year's atrocious season. Moving to the NL and moving to Chavez Ravine should put him in the 100-120 ERA+ area, which wouldn't be awful.

Jose Lima will again be a bust. We're talking about a guy who has bounced back to be .... league average. He's going to be 32 and simply isn't striking guys out at a rate that's conducive to continued success.

The Dodgers are obviously hoping that Edwin Jackson is ready to go this year.

Penny
Weaver
Lowe
Jackson
Ishii

That's not great, but it's not awful. Well, Ishii is awful when he's walking as many guys as he strikes out. That'd look a whole lot better with Odalis Perez. It's possible they're looking at a guy like Frank Brooks to fill in the bottom of the rotation, but more likely he's in the pen with Wilson Alvarez as dual swingmen.

The Dodgers need a starter and a catcher. They'll likely pick up one or the other through a trade. In the NL West, that should be enough to compete with the Padres for first.

The Giants have done nothing to improve their team. The Diamondbacks are going to be awful again, but they'll be slightly better for the 100 games Troy Glaus gets in.

[Bomber]

Randy Johnson rumors are heating up again in New York. Newsday is reporting that the following deal is close to being done.

One Arizona source described remaining impediments as “mostly loose ends,” believed to include the amount of cash going to Arizona. It is thought the Yankees would send around $8 million - along with Vazquez, Navarro and Halsey.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseba...-yankees-print

God let this happen.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Bomber

Randy Johnson rumors are heating up again in New York. Newsday is reporting that the following deal is close to being done.



http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseba...-yankees-print

God let this happen.

Yeah, the Johnson for Vazquez, Navarro, Halsey and $8 mil seems like the most likely result. I also heard they may add in Eric Duncan and cut the cash to $5 mil in that case. Either way, it appears Arizona would then send Navarro to LA for Green. If Arizona can end up with Vazquez, Green, Halsey and $8 mil for Johnson, they should buy a lotto ticket. That's quite the talent coup and would end up costing about the same from a payroll standpoint (lose $16 mil plus the $8 mil in cash, gain $16 mil from Green and $9 mil from Vazquez).

Not bad for a team over the barrel with no leverage on trading a 41-year old with bad knees making $16 mil.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

C'mon, you're not going to scare me away from a debate citing stats like this: I read BP daily, too. As a stats guy, you should know that one year does not a good career make and over the course of their career, Milton is a shade above mediocrity and steady whereas Wright had one great year piled onto a mound of crap. I've gotta think that Wright's stats were his 90%+ PECOTA percentile. I'll be a believer when he strings together more than one year under the modern Einstein of pitching coaches. There are two likely scenarios for Wright: the Yankees are paying $7M a year for someone regressed slightly from last year or they're paying $7M a year for a steaming pile of stuff that Cleveland turned their noses up at. Cleveland?!? Milton will continue his league average pitching which makes his $8M about $4M more than he should be paid (very average pitchers tend to get in the $3-$5M range these days) but that's still a lot better than paying $7M for pre-2004 Jaret Wright.

SI

I agree SI- but if you're the Reds, should you be paying $8.5 million a year to someone who's greatest season is average at best, or taking the $7 million injury shot (mind you Odalias Perez would have been better) with great upside ? I think Wright is probably going to be better than Milton- by far. I think if the Reds think they're getting an All-star, they ought to take the pitcher who's shown an ability to get there at least (and an ability to crash and burn)- Milton has been mediocre all his career. Its a boneheaded move by a boneheaded organization.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

Not gonna happen.

People grossly overrate Cora based on one close to average offensive season on a team and in a stadium where infield defense isn't nearly as important as it is elsewhere. Offensively, Kent/Perez over Cora should offset Beltre over Kent/Valentin nicely. Add in a full season from Choi, and the infield will be better offensively in 2005 than in 04. Defensively, it's a step down, but Cora to Kent is not nearly the drop people claim it is. Beltre to anyone is a drop, but again, infield defense isn't at a premium in Chavez Ravine.

What's the big excitement about adding in Choi to the LA lineup? The guy hit .161 in LA last season and had almost 100Ks in only 340 ABs. That LA lineup is going to be full of a lot of strikeouts with Choi (96 in 340), Drew (116), Bradley (123), Valentine (139), Kent (96), Werth (85 in 290) and Green (if they keep him). Add that none (save Drew) are even .290 hitters and you are going have a lot of quick innings on offense in LA.

And, again, trading Cora, Finley and Beltre for Kent, Bradley and Valentine is a big drop in defense. You are talking about losing two of the top defenders at their position (Cora, Beltre) and a very good defensive center fielder.

They moved from Finley to Drew in the outfield. That's a pretty big upgrade both offensively and defensively, as Finley's lost more than a step and will certainly not be worth the money that he's pulling down up the street in Anaheim.

I agree that Finley is overpaid in Anaheim, but the guy was a wizard in Arizona in 04 in CF. He had only three combined errors all season and it's not like he didn't have a lot of opportunities with that Arizona pitching staff in 04 Drew is a good RF, but moving Bradley back to CF (8 errors in CF and LF in 04) is going to hurt the defense.

The big question is obviously whether or not Werth will be healthy enough to play. With Chin, Ledee, Grabowski, and Werth combining for the 3rd/4th OF spot, the 2005 outfield will be better than the 2004 outfield, even without Green.

I don't know, I would take the 04 Finley, Green and Bradley over Drew, Bradley and Werth - esp on defense. Offensively, it's closer to a push, but it's definately not better.

As I mentioned, they need to make a move to grab a starting pitcher. Derek Lowe wouldn't be a horrible guy, as he's likely to bounce back some from last year's atrocious season. Moving to the NL and moving to Chavez Ravine should put him in the 100-120 ERA+ area, which wouldn't be awful.


The Dodgers are obviously hoping that Edwin Jackson is ready to go this year.

Penny
Weaver
Lowe
Jackson
Ishii

If you can get Lowe for a decent deal (not the $40 million deal Boras wants), it will help. But Ishii and Jackson are big iffys and Lowe hasn't been signed. At this exact moment you have Jackson at No. 3, Ishii at No. 4 and either Alvarez or Elmer Dessens at No. 5.

The Dodgers need a starter and a catcher. They'll likely pick up one or the other through a trade. In the NL West, that should be enough to compete with the Padres for first.

If the Dodgers go into a season with a lineup of Izturis, Werth, Drew, Kent, Bradley, Valentine, Choi, and Ross (as it appears right now), they are going to need some very good pitching. There's only one guy capable of a .290+ season in that lineup and a heck of a lot of Ks. The Dodgers best hope was to keep Green at 1B, sign Veritek and get Perez back in the rotation. Had they done those three, they would be in better shape. But right now, I see the Padres and Giants having better lineups and better staffs.

The Giants have done nothing to improve their team. The Diamondbacks are going to be awful again, but they'll be slightly better for the 100 games Troy Glaus gets in

I think the Giants have improved their 2005 team by adding in Alou, Vizquel, Matheny and Armando Benitez. Of course, I think they will be hurting in 2007 from these deals and the fact their average age will be 95, but it should pay off in 05.

As to Arizona, if the Johnson deal goes as expected and ESPN is right that Arizona will then move Navarro to LA for Green, Arizona will be a much better team than the one in 2004. Even without the RJ deal (and expect FA moves, this team should be better):

lineup - Counsell, Clayton, Gonzalez, Glaus, Green/Burnitz, Tracy, Terrero, Hill/Snider
pitching - RJ/Vazquez, Ortiz, Webb, Estes, Gosling/Villarreal

I would put that on par (maybe slightly less) with what the Dodgers have right now from a production standpoint.

[CentralMassHokie]

You're worried far too much about batting average and strikeouts. As the Sox, Yankees, and Athletics have shown, OBP and SLG are what matter in scoring runs. In fact, I'm almost positive strikeouts correllated better with runs scored than did batting average in 2004, but I need to check that again (I ran the numbers a few months ago).

Choi, Drew, and Kent are all high OBP/high SLG guys. Valentin is a high SLG guy who came cheap. Choi was mashing the ball in Florida, got hurt, and never really settled in in LA. He'll be fine. He strikes out a lot, but he walks a lot too. That's what matters.

These are guys who get on base and drive in runs, even when their not getting seeing eye singles.

Cora and Izturis are middle of the road average guys who don't walk and don't drive the ball. If they're not getting their flares and texas leaguers, they're black holes at the plate.

As for the infield and outfield defense, pretty much every advanced defensive metric shows what you'd expect: 39 year old Steve Finley is no longer a great defensive centerfielder. Bradley and Drew are better defenders. There's no drop off. In 2004, Drew, Bradley, Green, and Werth all had higher EqAs than did Finley. Drew's better on both sides of the ball.

The pitching staff has holes. It's a long offseason. I'm not a Dodgers fan by any stretch of the imagination -- I'm a Red Sox fan. But the Dodgers have had a pretty good offseason without going financially crazy, which has been interesting to watch.

Any team starting an infield that includes Royce Clayton, Craig Counsell, and Chad Tracy/Shea Hillenbrand -- well they're going to have trouble scoring runs.

There's no way they're even close to the Dodgers on offense. And if Gonzalez continues his current decline, he's going to be pretty much league average.

The pitching staff could be strong - if they get Javy, I'm a huge fan. Ortiz is rapidly becoming mediocre -- he walks far too many guys. Webb had the same problem last year, which is troubling for a young pitcher who doesn't strike anybody out (though I think he'll bounce back this season). Estes is another mediocre guy.

Topping if off, they're pitching in a hitters' park.

It's going to be ugly in Arizona. U-G-L-Y.

San Francisco signed Benitez. Alou and Vizquel are barely upgrades on guys they've rotated through there recently. And they're still starting Michael Tucker.

If the season started today, I'd say Padres-Dodgers-Giants-Dbacks.

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by Arles

Yeah, the Johnson for Vazquez, Navarro, Halsey and $8 mil seems like the most likely result. I also heard they may add in Eric Duncan and cut the cash to $5 mil in that case. Either way, it appears Arizona would then send Navarro to LA for Green. If Arizona can end up with Vazquez, Green, Halsey and $8 mil for Johnson, they should buy a lotto ticket. That's quite the talent coup and would end up costing about the same from a payroll standpoint (lose $16 mil plus the $8 mil in cash, gain $16 mil from Green and $9 mil from Vazquez).

Not bad for a team over the barrel with no leverage on trading a 41-year old with bad knees making $16 mil.

I've got to believe that Navarro + something is in the works for Green. The article says the DBacks are interested in Navarro because his value has increased since the Dodgers expressed interest. However, Green is going to want an extension and Vazquez is going to demand a trade after the season.

[Bomber]

Each year, Baseball Prospectus player projection guru Dr. Nate Silver runs all major league players through his patented prognostication program as part of the preparation for the annual BP book. The program, PECOTA, forecasts a likely statistical line for each and every player in the majors and high minors, then comes up with a list of comparable players from the past. The value of this exercise is that the fate of the comparables might provide some insight into the destiny of the player under discussion.
Carl Pavano's breakout season in the National League doesn't necessarily mean a repeat performance in the AL.

This year's projected PECOTA line for Carl Pavano: 174.7 IP, 4.64 ERA, 21.3 VORP. VORP stands for Value Over Replacement. It rolls all the player's contributions into one nice, works-across-baseball-history number. The number actually suggests how many runs the pitcher saved for his team over that of the theoretical replacement player. Twenty-one runs above replacement is not a lot of bang for Yankee buck.

Top comparables:

1. Clark, Mark
He was most notable for sharing the name of the U.S. general who managed the Anzio campaign in World War II. He wasn't very good at it. You could say the same thing about the baseball version who mixed good years with nightmares. He was out of the majors at 32.

2. Navarro, Jaime
Occasionally decent pitcher who famously imploded at 30 after moving from the Cubs to the White Sox in 1997, going 25-49 with a 6.32 ERA over the length of a contract that seemed to go on forever.

3. Bosio, Chris
No fun after age 30 due to increasing physical problems.

4. Burkett, John
He had excellent control but overall was largely mediocre. He had one exceptionally strong year, with the Braves at 36. He's the only pitcher in this top five to have a long career.

5. Wegman, Bill
Brewers control pitcher who never struck anyone out, he seemed to be rounding into a useful back of rotation type until Phil Garner had him pitch 261 2/3 innings in 1992. That was pretty much that. He was finished at 32.

You don't need PECOTA to arrive at a similarly cautious forecast for Pavano. You don't even need common sense or more than the most cursory knowledge of his performances. The magic words are, "Not a lot of strikeouts… Leaving a pitcher's park… Going to a DH league." It is inevitable that his ERA is going to bounce upwards. The only question is how high. PECOTA is pessimistic.

http://www.yesnetwork.com/yankees/news.asp?news_id=779

[Bomber]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/st...p-227984c.html

Although a gag order was in place with both teams, sources told the Daily News that Johnson informed a few of his Arizona teammates that he was going to the Yankees.

Yankee president Randy Levine and incoming D-Backs CEO Jeff Moorad spoke for the second time in two days yesterday, and there were two scenarios under consideration, according to sources.

Both possibilities involved the Yankees sending Javier Vazquez, prospects and cash to Arizona in exchange for Johnson, but the amount of money the Bombers would ship was contingent on the caliber of the minor leaguers.

In one proposal, the Yanks were to trade Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Abel Gomez and Melky Cabrera (lower-level prospects) for Johnson and include about $12 million to make up some of the difference in money owed to the 41-year-old ace ($16 million this season) and Vazquez ($35.5 million over the next three years).

The other proposal involved the Yankees moving Vazquez and higher-rated prospects Dioner Navarro and Eric Duncan for Johnson, while throwing in significantly less money - around $5 million - to complete the transaction. Once the deal is agreed upon, the Yankees then have to work out a contract extension for Johnson; according to sources, they were talking about adding two years to Johnson's pact at $16 million per.

The Diamondbacks were said to be prepared to accept the results of the physical Vazquez took for the Yankees at the conclusion of last season.

I'd rather give the extra $3 million and see how Duncan turns out. Also Cabrera is very highly rated among the Yankees lower-level prospects, I think he's 18 or so and plays CF.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

Any team starting an infield that includes Royce Clayton, Craig Counsell, and Chad Tracy/Shea Hillenbrand -- well they're going to have trouble scoring runs.

Anyone remember when Shea Hillenbrand was way too much to give up to get Byung-Hyun Kim? Yeah, no one else does either now, but that caused quite the ruckus at the time and where are both of those guys now?

SI

[CentralMassHokie]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Anyone remember when Shea Hillenbrand was way too much to give up to get Byung-Hyun Kim? Yeah, no one else does either now, but that caused quite the ruckus at the time and where are both of those guys now?

SI

I thought Hillenbrand for Kim was a huge steal for the Sox. And it was, as the Sox wouldn't have gotten the Wild Card spot in 03 without Kim shoring up the pen.

Then he went all head-casey.

Still, he's better than Swing Away Shea.

[WSUCougar]

If the Yankees land Johnson and Beltran, and no one doubts they can, their payroll for 2005, as computed for luxury-tax purposes, will approach $225 million. That would be nearly $100 million more than the luxury tax threshold of $128 million for next season. As three-time violators, the Yankees would have to pay a 40 percent tax on that $100 million. As a result, the Yankees may end up owing nearly $40 million in luxury taxes alone next season, or more than the entire payrolls for several teams.
-- New York Times

[Arles]

[quote=CentralMassHokie]

You're worried far too much about batting average and strikeouts. As the Sox, Yankees, and Athletics have shown, OBP and SLG are what matter in scoring runs. In fact, I'm almost positive strikeouts correllated better with runs scored than did batting average in 2004, but I need to check that again (I ran the numbers a few months ago).

Choi, Drew, and Kent are all high OBP/high SLG guys. Valentin is a high SLG guy who came cheap. Choi was mashing the ball in Florida, got hurt, and never really settled in in LA. He'll be fine. He strikes out a lot, but he walks a lot too. That's what matters.

That may be true, but I see a lot of solo home runs in LA next season. The Sox, Yankees and Athletics have also had guys that get on base at the top of their order, and I don't see LA having those guys.

As for the infield and outfield defense, pretty much every advanced defensive metric shows what you'd expect: 39 year old Steve Finley is no longer a great defensive centerfielder. Bradley and Drew are better defenders. There's no drop off. In 2004, Drew, Bradley, Green, and Werth all had higher EqAs than did Finley. Drew's better on both sides of the ball.

The problem with your logic is that Finley played CF all last season, while none of Drew, Bradley, Green or Werth spent any significant time in CF. So, you are comparing apples and oranges. You are assuming that someone like Drew or Bradley would be as good as Finley in CF because they are decent corner OFs. Not always the best premise to make.

The pitching staff has holes. It's a long offseason. I'm not a Dodgers fan by any stretch of the imagination -- I'm a Red Sox fan. But the Dodgers have had a pretty good offseason without going financially crazy, which has been interesting to watch.

They spent almost twice as much money on JD Drew, Kent and Jose Valentin (combined $23 mil in 05) than they spent in all of 04 on guys like Finley, Cora, Beltre, Perez and Lima. Even if the money is equal, I don't see that as a fair trade from a talent standpoint. Now, they are talking about adding in Lowe for $8-9 million a season. They will have a significantly higher payroll in 05 with a worse team on the field. How is that a "pretty good offseason"?

Any team starting an infield that includes Royce Clayton, Craig Counsell, and Chad Tracy/Shea Hillenbrand -- well they're going to have trouble scoring runs.

Counsell had an OPB of .330, Clayton .338, and Tracy .343 in 04. They are also making a combined $3 mil for 05. I'd say that's pretty darn good value and a nice group of role-players to fill out the starting lineup behind the big boppers like Glaus, Gonzalez and others.

There's no way they're even close to the Dodgers on offense. And if Gonzalez continues his current decline, he's going to be pretty much league average.

In mid June, Gonzo was hitting .280 with 14 HRs. Then his elbow and shoulder went to hell and he was forced to shut down after July. If he's healthy (as he appears to be now), there's no reason to expect a big decline in his numbers. Remember, he had a better 2003 than 2002 and was on the way to even better numbers in 04 before the elbow really started to bother him.

The pitching staff could be strong - if they get Javy, I'm a huge fan. Ortiz is rapidly becoming mediocre -- he walks far too many guys. Webb had the same problem last year, which is troubling for a young pitcher who doesn't strike anybody out (though I think he'll bounce back this season). Estes is another mediocre guy.

A lot of Webb's walks were because of the poor infield defense in 04. Adding Glaus, Clayton, Counsell and moving Tracy to 1B will help there. Arizona led the league in errors and Melvin talked about this in a recent article. Because guys like Hillenbrand, Cintron and Hairston were booting balls last season, Webb lost a lot of outs (he's a ground ball pitcher). This forced him to stop relying on the defense and try to strike more people out - which meant more walks. I would expect that he will do much better in 04 as Melvin said he will be able to trust the defense. Ortiz wasn't the best signing, but he's been a winner.

Topping if off, they're pitching in a hitters' park.

It's going to be ugly in Arizona. U-G-L-Y.

It can't be much uglier than last season. I would be amazed if Arizona gets less than 75 wins with this current team, marking a 20+ game improvement.

If the season started today, I'd say Padres-Dodgers-Giants-Dbacks.

I'd go Giants - Padres - Dodgers - DBacks - Rockies. If Arizona gets Green and Vazquez, they will finish ahead of LA.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Bomber

I've got to believe that Navarro + something is in the works for Green. The article says the DBacks are interested in Navarro because his value has increased since the Dodgers expressed interest.

Yeah, I don't think Arizona is interested in Navarro unless they can move him.

However, Green is going to want an extension and Vazquez is going to demand a trade after the season

The proposed deal (back when the LA gig was still in place) was that Arizona would essentially rip up Green's current deal and sign him to a three-year $34 million deal (including 05). The end result is Green would make $12 mil in 05. Add in the $7-$8 million from the Yankees and the numbers for Green and Vazquez look a lot better. At to Javy, I expect the DBacks to call his bluff. If he really wants to demand a trade or walk away from $12 mil in 06 and $13 mil in 07 - I say let him walk. There's no way he will get that kind of money in FA. And I expect Arizona could find a FA pitcher for $12 mil a season that could equal Javy's production.

My guess is he will finish out his contract in Arizona without a peep if he indeed comes here.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by CentralMassHokie

I thought Hillenbrand for Kim was a huge steal for the Sox. And it was, as the Sox wouldn't have gotten the Wild Card spot in 03 without Kim shoring up the pen.

Then he went all head-casey.

Still, he's better than Swing Away Shea.

Shea was a great guy for Arizona until they could get an upgrade like Glaus. Here's his numbers in 2004 (not bad value for a guy making $2.6 mil):

.310 - .812 OPS - 15 HR - 80 RBI and only 49 Ks.

Here's what Kim did (while making $3.5 mil):

2-1, 6.23 ERA in 17 IP

I think that deal was a major coup for the DBacks, especially since Kim would still be on the books in 05 had he stayed.

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by Arles

My guess is he will finish out his contract in Arizona without a peep if he indeed comes here.

I guess it'll depend on how he does in 2004 and how unhappy he is. I wouldn't walk away from that kind of money, but someone else might.

[Bad-example]

Looking at the Giants offseason I will go into more depth since it is the team I follow the closest. I think the Giants have the horses to fight the Padres for the division title.

Starting Pitching:

Jason Schmidt
Brett Tomko
Jerome Williams
Kirk Reuter
Noah Lowry
Jessie Foppert
Brad Hennessey

That looks like a pretty good rotation to me. Schmidt is a true ace. Tomko has been a second half pitcher and was lights out down the stretch. Williams was sought after by other clubs this off season and that usually means a player is pretty talented. Reuter has been fading the last couple years but is a lefty and can still be a decent starter considering the run support he will get. Lowry was 6-0 in 14 starts. He has a nasty change up and will get every chance to win the 5 spot in the rotation. Foppert is one year removed from surgery. He and/or Hennessey might win a job in long relief or more likely start at triple-A. This rotation looks to be about the same as last year but with potentially more wins considering the improvement in the...

Relief Pitching:

Armando Benitez
Jim Brower
Matt Herges
Jason Christiansen
Scott Eyre
Tyler Walker
Jeff Fassero
Wayne Franklin
David Aardsma

Starting at the top, Benitez is a major upgrade for this team. Hermanson is gone and I am very sorry to see him go, but a full season with Benitez closing should have a positive effect on the whole pen. Brower is a solid set up guy but was over worked last season. Herges failed as a closer but might still be useful in the 7-8th innings. Christiansen and Eyre are quality lefties and Fassero could be ok if he makes the squad. Walker made 52 appearances and was a nice surprise. Frankiln and Aardsma are probably headed to the minors. Grabbing Benitez for 3 years/$21m addressed the Giants biggest weakness. The bullpen should be better in 2005.

Lineup:

SS Omar Vizquel
2B Ray Durham
1B J.T. Snow
LF Barry Bonds
RF Moises Alou
3B Edgardo Alfonzo
CF Marquis Grissom
C Mike Matheny

Deivi Cruz won the SS job last year and put up good offensive numbers. If Vizquel can put in a season of roughly equal value, then this move is still an offensive upgrade with Cruz becoming a great bench option. Durham has had trouble staying healthy but has been productive when he plays. Snow had a great second half after returning from injury and is unlikely to be that good again. Bonds is Bonds, and until he shows signs of slowing down I will expect him to be great. Alou makes RF more productive whether or not it helps Bonds see more strikes. Alfonzo always reports to spring training out of shape but is rumored to be taking his conditioning more seriously this year. I will believe it when I see it. Grissom is best suited to a bench role at this point but is currently the starter. Matheny is not as good a hitter as Pierzynski and was mainly brought in for his defensive skills. The starting lineup looks to be roughly as good as it was last year. Alou adds a dangerous bat but Matheny is a downgrade and age makes this lineup vulnerable to declining skills and injuries.

Bench:
Pedro Feliz
Deivi Cruz
Micheal Tucker
Yorvit Torrealba
Tony Torcato
Todd Linden

If the Giants can add a CF and push Grissom to the bench then I like this group better but this is still a versatile, deep bench. Feliz is a super utility guy with power. Cruz was a surprise last year and should be great in a reserve role. Tucker adds depth but is just a decent 4th or 5th outfielder. Torrealba is young and more praised for his catching than his hitting. Dustan Mohr was non-tendered for unexplained reasons. I have to believe he had some trade value but instead he is gone and that opens a spot for one of the young guys listed or possibly another player not yet on the roster.

The offense as a whole should again be one of the best in the league but with all the older players there is the scary possibilty that half the team could get injured and the other half start showing their ages. Even so, a finish in the top 5 in runs scored looks like a fair estimate.

The Defense:

The infield defense is better than last year at SS and C. Alfonzo plays a quality 3B as does his back up Feliz. Snow should still be above average even at age 37. Durham is the weakest infield defender and with Cruz, Alfonzo and Feliz his potential backups...well, don't look for great glovework at 2B this year. Adding a versatile role player that could play CF and 2B when needed would be ideal, but I would settle for trading for Eric Byrnes The defense in the outfield takes a double hit. Bonds and Grissom are one year older and Alou seems a risky proposition at right field in SBC park. While the Giants have a better overall defense than last year, their outfield defense would appear to be their biggest weakness.

This offseason the Giants found players that shored up their veteran team's biggest weaknesses. They did what they had to do (offer 3 years) to get the guys they targeted. This team is built for a 2 year run at a title while they have Bonds and Schmidt. With well-regarded pitching prospects Matt Cain and Merkin Valdez, Sabean will have the ammunition to make deadline deals come summer. If the season started tomorrow I would say 85-92 wins and a race to the division title with the Padres. If they stay healthy they have a shot to go deep into the postseason, especially if they find an upgrade at CF.

[Arles]

According to the NY Times, the deal is Johnson to the Yankees for Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Navarro and $9 million. Then (supposedly) Navarro will be moved to LA for Shaun Green. So, the trade may end up being RJ for Javy, Green, Halsey and $9 million. I can live with that as a DBacks fan. But, we'll see how it looks by the time everything is finalized.

[Ksyrup]

I hope they are getting some money from the Dodgers. I'd almost rather have Sammy Sosa for that money.

[WSUCougar]

Heard a rumor this morning that the Cards will sign 2B Roberto "Spit Shine" Alomar. Interesting.

Lineup:

SS Omar Vizquel
2B Ray Durham
1B J.T. Snow
LF Barry Bonds
RF Moises Alou
3B Edgardo Alfonzo
CF Marquis Grissom
C Mike Matheny

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I hope they are getting some money from the Dodgers. I'd almost rather have Sammy Sosa for that money.

WHat I've heard is that Arizona will essentially rip up Green's final season and sign him to a new deal at 3 years for about $30 mil (including 05). $10 mil a year is probably a little much for Green, but if he gets .280 and 35-40 HRs as he projects in BOB if he's healthy, it's a market deal. Plus, with the $8 mil from the Yankees, Arizona would be getting Vazquez and Green for 3-4 mil less than Johnson (if you figure the new Green deal).

[Arles]

Originally Posted by WSUCougar

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.

I agree here as well. I do think that the lineup will hold up in 05, but the Giants may end up going from 90 wins in 05 to 80 in 06 to 70 in 07. They are pretty much putting all their eggs in a run for 05.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Arles

I agree here as well. I do think that the lineup will hold up in 05, but the Giants may end up going from 90 wins in 05 to 80 in 06 to 70 in 07. They are pretty much putting all their eggs in a run for 05.

I think it will go from 90 in 05 to 65 in 07 - and I say this as a Giants fanatic.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Arles

WHat I've heard is that Arizona will essentially rip up Green's final season and sign him to a new deal at 3 years for about $30 mil (including 05). $10 mil a year is probably a little much for Green, but if he gets .280 and 35-40 HRs as he projects in BOB if he's healthy, it's a market deal. Plus, with the $8 mil from the Yankees, Arizona would be getting Vazquez and Green for 3-4 mil less than Johnson (if you figure the new Green deal).

That wouldn't be so bad, but I've read that they'll be spinning Vazquez back to the East Coast (Orioles, maybe) for 2-3 guys.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

That wouldn't be so bad, but I've read that they'll be spinning Vazquez back to the East Coast (Orioles, maybe) for 2-3 guys.

Yeah, but according to the Arizona papers that would only be done at the trade deadline and if Vazquez was adament about voiding his contract if he doesn't get dealt (not sure how likely that is). All indications are they will have him on their opening day roster and try to convince him to stay out West - unless they get a great deal for him. And the paper doesn't seem to think there's all that great a deal for him available right now. The guys being talked about are some young lefty in Baltimore coming off two elbow surgeries, Randy Wolf or A.J. Burnett. I can't see AZ trading Vazquez for any of those right now.

Again, If Vazquez wanted to force a trade after the season and Arizona said "No", his options would be to keep playing and deal with it or walk away from a deal that would pay him $25 million over the next two seasons. I really can't see him doing the latter so I think it would be in everyone's best interest for him to finish out his contract in Arizona (if AZ doesn't want to trade him).

[Bomber]

I'd trade Vazquez for AJ Burnett in a heart beat.

[Ksyrup]

Vazquez is still an above-average - maybe still great - pitcher. He just might have gotten Kenny Rogers Syndrome last year. If he regains his form, Arizona will be in a prime position to deal him in July if he wants to leave.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by WSUCougar

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.

Or the Mariners - old lineups have the potential to fall off the cliff, as the M's found out last year. Bonds is amazing, but the rest of that lineup is iffy. Could be very good, could fall apart quickly.

[Bad-example]

Originally Posted by WSUCougar

No offense but this lineup (minus Bonds, of course) looks like something the Baltimore Orioles pieced together a few years back. Old and creaky. I think the Giants will be extraordinarily fortunate to see this lineup hold together for any significant stretch, and in my opinion all of these players are on the down side of their careers if not on the way out. Not trying to bust your chops, I just think you are being too optimistic about these guys.

If they can stay relatively healthy I like their chances of scoring enough runs to contend. There is the scary possibility of a team wide fade but with their pitching I think they should be pretty strong in 2005.

[Fonzie]

It appears the Cards are about to/have just signed Roberto Alomar.

Linky

[Fonzie]

Dola-

If that report is accurate then I'd say at $500k and with a non-guaranteed contract Alomar certainly seems like he's worth a shot. Decent move by Walt.

[Fonzie]

Double Dola-

Or not. It seems the previous report of Alomar's signing was premature, but is very much still a possibility.

Linky poo

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Sharpieman

YaY! The Giants have the oldest outfield in history...also look at the projected lineup in the field:

LF - Bonds - 40 years old
CF - Grissom - 37 yrs old
RF - Alou - 38
3B - Alfonso - 31
SS - Vizquel - 37
2B - Durham - 33
1B - Snow - 36
C - Matheny - 34

We might as well let the AARP sponsor our ballpark while we're at it.

Not to add insult to injury, but there was a wire story stating that the Giants had scouts watching 44-year old Fernando Valenzuela pitch in the Mexican league last week.

[Sharpieman]

YaY! The Giants have the oldest outfield in history...also look at the projected lineup in the field:

LF - Bonds - 40 years old
CF - Grissom - 37 yrs old
RF - Alou - 38
3B - Alfonso - 31
SS - Vizquel - 37
2B - Durham - 33
1B - Snow - 36
C - Matheny - 34

We might as well let the AARP sponsor our ballpark while we're at it.

[daedalus]

"This 7th inning stretch brought to you by Depends undergarment."

Yet, there's a decent likelihood that they'll be the most productive outfield in the NL West.

"Oh! That's another homerun into the Metamusil Bay by Bonds!"

[sterlingice]

You know, I'm just going to flat out say it: the DBacks got raped for RJ. You have a team that's desperate to get your player almost to the point of insanity despite having no other competition and the best you can come away with it is Javy Vasquez and two decent but not even that good prospects.

Vasquez is easily the most interesting of the three as I think he's a good candidate for a comeback in the right situation, particularly out of the large market glare. I dunno, but he always struck me as one of those who would flop in NY. Then again, I keep seeing that the DBacks are looking to flip him for prospects elsewhere so any possible gain is negated there.

The other two aren't nearly as interesting as Halsey is most definitely a TNSTAAPP as his K/9 was pretty good but someone find this guy the plate: a walk more than once every three innings. And Navarro, while highly touted by the national media, looks a lot more the product of East Coast Hype (TM- patent pending) than anything as he hasn't hit much above A ball.

Then again, this deal is yet to be agreed upon. It's 98% done accorinding to the Yanks website but that doesn't mean much as it's been anywhere from "light interest" to "a done deal" so for all we know, it'll end up being Johnson, the newly inked Troy Glaus/Royce Clayon/Craig Counsell (because the left side of your infield can never be too full), the renaming of 'The Bob' to 'The George', 15 miles of Arizona oceanfront property for Javy Vazquez, Dioneer Navarro, Jason Giambi, 3 Yankees Stadium luxury boxes, $250M in cash, and the trinkets which Manhattan was bought for.

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