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Old 11-02-2004, 11:31 PM   #201
Ksyrup
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The deal with ohio is that there are somewhere around 200K provisional ballots, and if the numbers stay like they are, or obviously if they get close, the provisionals will have to be reviewed and then, if allowed, counted. Bush is behind in the other states that would give him an alternate path to victory, so it may come down to Ohio, and only Ohio, deciding the election.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:32 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by kingfc22
Let me preface this by saying that I don't believe by any stretch that it is over already, but I would have loved to see the look on Carville's face when he talked about this.

He didn't seem too upset. He basically said that he agreed the Dems needed a good ass whooping to rethink things.

That being said, looking at the numbers in Ohio, I don't see how Kerry makes up anything, there are a few counties with not too many precints reporting where Bus his waxing him.

Code:
COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS Adams Updated: 12:25 a.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 7,480 64% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 4,189 36% Non-Partisan Badnarik 35 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 31 0% Allen Updated: 10:19 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 31,629 67% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 15,822 33% Non-Partisan Badnarik 130 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 62 0% Ashland Updated: 11:09 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 8,821 64% 40% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 4,738 35% Non-Partisan Peroutka 73 1% Non-Partisan Badnarik 41 0% Ashtabula Updated: 11:01 p.m. ET Democratic Kerry 23,545 53% 100% of precincts reporting Republican Bush (Incumbent) 20,621 47% Non-Partisan Peroutka 158 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 141 0% Athens Updated: 11:35 p.m. ET Democratic Kerry 11,394 64% 71% of precincts reporting Republican Bush (Incumbent) 6,238 35% Non-Partisan Badnarik 64 1% Non-Partisan Peroutka 62 0% COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS Auglaize Updated: 11:54 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 14,278 74% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 4,917 26% Non-Partisan Badnarik 56 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 44 0% Belmont Updated: 12:10 a.m. ET Democratic Kerry 12,226 53% 72% of precincts reporting Republican Bush (Incumbent) 10,828 47% Non-Partisan Badnarik 60 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 48 0% Brown Updated: 11:55 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 12,480 64% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 7,058 36% Non-Partisan Peroutka 52 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 51 0% Butler Updated: 12:17 a.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 106,735 66% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 54,185 34% Non-Partisan Badnarik 396 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 274 0% Carroll Updated: 10:35 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 7,531 54% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 6,190 45% Non-Partisan Badnarik 75 1% Non-Partisan Peroutka 58 0% COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS Champaign Updated: 11:22 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 11,432 63% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 6,752 37% Non-Partisan Badnarik 43 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 41 0% Clark Updated: 12:00 a.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 33,389 52% 97% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 31,228 48% Non-Partisan Badnarik 181 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 138 0% Clermont Updated: 11:03 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 20,490 71% 27% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 8,535 29% Non-Partisan Badnarik 49 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 34 0% Clinton Updated: 9:50 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 5,664 69% 63% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 2,583 31% Non-Partisan Peroutka 16 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 9 0% Columbiana Updated: 11:24 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 25,212 52% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 22,884 48% Non-Partisan Peroutka 148 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 126 0% COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS Coshocton Updated: 10:37 p.m. ET Democratic Kerry 2,172 51% 28% of precincts reporting Republican Bush (Incumbent) 2,056 49% Non-Partisan Peroutka 11 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 8 0% Crawford Updated: 11:50 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 13,667 64% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 7,626 36% Non-Partisan Peroutka 72 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 68 0% Cuyahoga Updated: 12:03 a.m. ET Democratic Kerry 282,406 63% 67% of precincts reporting Republican Bush (Incumbent) 163,732 37% Non-Partisan Peroutka 1,160 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 1,113 0% Darke Updated: 11:42 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 17,869 70% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 7,663 30% Non-Partisan Badnarik 79 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 76 0% Defiance Updated: 10:02 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 2,344 60% 24% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 1,537 40% Non-Partisan Peroutka 13 0% Non-Partisan Badnarik 5 0% COUNTY STATUS CANDIDATE COUNTY VOTE VOTE % PRECINCTS Delaware Updated: 12:24 a.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 47,882 66% 94% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 24,639 34% Non-Partisan Badnarik 152 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 80 0% Erie Updated: 11:58 p.m. ET Democratic Kerry 20,652 53% 100% of precincts reporting Republican Bush (Incumbent) 18,019 47% Non-Partisan Badnarik 48 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 17 0% Fairfield Updated: 11:49 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 34,212 62% 81% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 19,640 36% Non-Partisan Peroutka 708 1% Non-Partisan Badnarik 523 1% Fayette Updated: 10:31 p.m. ET Republican Bush (Incumbent) 7,221 63% 100% of precincts reporting Democratic Kerry 4,244 37% Non-Partisan Badnarik 28 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 18 0% Franklin Updated: 11:35 p.m. ET Democratic Kerry 244,527 53% 91% of precincts reporting Republican Bush (Incumbent) 215,259 47% Non-Partisan Badnarik 1,406 0% Non-Partisan Peroutka 991 0%
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:33 PM   #203
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The popular vote is real close but early returns in California show it is alot closer than many expected. I think Bush will take the popular vote.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:33 PM   #204
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Bush has to take Ohio AND New Mexico (both currently leaning his way) to win.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:35 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by Ksyrup
The deal with ohio is that there are somewhere around 200K provisional ballots, and if the numbers stay like they are, or obviously if they get close, the provisionals will have to be reviewed and then, if allowed, counted. Bush is behind in the other states that would give him an alternate path to victory, so it may come down to Ohio, and only Ohio, deciding the election.

Exactly, I couldn't remember how many provisionals they said were handed out or if they were included in current totals or not...
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:36 PM   #206
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I'm a Bush suppoprter, but my worst case scenario is, no matter who wins, a long drawn out court battle. No matter who wins, I hope the other bows out and says the best man won - for the country's sake.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:39 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by Chubby
Bush has to take Ohio AND New Mexico (both currently leaning his way) to win.

Bush should take Nevada. I do no think he will lose there.I aslo think he will take New Mexico. However, it looks like Ohio will decide the election. Last count I heard there was 800,000 uncounted for in Ohio with Bush holding +180,000.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:39 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by CraigSca
I'm a Bush suppoprter, but my worst case scenario is, no matter who wins, a long drawn out court battle. No matter who wins, I hope the other bows out and says the best man won - for the country's sake.


*cackles* you put the words "best man" and "wins" in the same sentence......



*CACKLES*


Sorry, but the very idea that either of these two nether-regions of a diseased yak is the best man for anything is hilarious.


I apologize for this interruption of our national corruption, we now return you to your regular 4 year frustration....
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:40 PM   #209
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Originally Posted by GoldenEagle
Bush should take Nevada. I do no think he will lose there.I aslo think he will take New Mexico. However, it looks like Ohio will decide the election. Last count I heard there was 800,000 uncounted for in Ohio with Bush holding +180,000.

well currently bush is down in nevada and up in new mexico.

there's also the provisional ballots in ohio too...
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:41 PM   #210
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Fox news just called Ohio for Bush!
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:41 PM   #211
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If Ohio's number stay similar to they are now through the night and Bush's percent hold true through all the precincts, even with 200K provisional ballots Kerry would need around 130-150K of those, or over 65% to have a chance. There are still precincts open where Bush has a good lead, that overall almost cancel any gains Kerry will make through the night.

Kerry gets Oregon.

CNN has it 246-195 for Bush. 97 votes left.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:42 PM   #212
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Originally Posted by RendeR
*cackles* you put the words "best man" and "wins" in the same sentence......



*CACKLES*


Sorry, but the very idea that either of these two nether-regions of a diseased yak is the best man for anything is hilarious.


I apologize for this interruption of our national corruption, we now return you to your regular 4 year frustration....

EVERYTHING is relative, Render.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:43 PM   #213
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He is down by 5,000 in Nevada, the slimest of margins. If Fox News is right, this thing is all but over.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:43 PM   #214
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Fox news just called Ohio for Bush!

would you expect anything different? if it gets called by anyone else than maybe.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:43 PM   #215
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Originally Posted by Chubby
Bush has to take Ohio AND New Mexico (both currently leaning his way) to win.


No, he doesn't. He takes Ohio and Alaska, he gets to 269. That's a tie, that's decided by the House. The Republicans hold the house.

Fox News just called Ohio.

Provisional ballots and court cases aside, this election is now over.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:44 PM   #216
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No, he doesn't. He takes Ohio and Alaska, he gets to 269. That's a tie, that's decided by the House. The Republicans hold the house.

Fox News just called Ohio.

Provisional ballots and court cases aside, this election is now over.

again, when someone else calls ohio then it's over.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:46 PM   #217
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I have a feeling the Dems will not let Ohio go so easily.

Funny, because Fox News has actually been pretty cautious is calling states until the last hour or so. Now they've decided to scoop everyone and essentially give Bush the election.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:48 PM   #218
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I can't believe that Fox was the first to call Ohio because they were the last to call Florida. CBS has been the network that has called everything early and I doubt they'd call Ohio anytime tonight since Rather is an obviously anti-Bush.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:48 PM   #219
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Yeah, FoxNews was the only station that was sticking to the agreement of letting the AP call the states until now. Because this is the big one. If it's true and the lawyers in fact have run out of free cigarettes to give to returning voters in Cleveland....then Bush has basically won!

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Old 11-02-2004, 11:48 PM   #220
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My guess is Kerry gains 15-20K in Ohio by the time the normal counting is done tonight.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:49 PM   #221
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dola

Ksyrup beat me to it.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:51 PM   #222
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MSNBC is saying both parties are saying it's going to be razor thin close
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:54 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by Ksyrup
I have a feeling the Dems will not let Ohio go so easily.

Funny, because Fox News has actually been pretty cautious is calling states until the last hour or so. Now they've decided to scoop everyone and essentially give Bush the election.


They won't, but even if they have 200,000 provisional ballots undecided, they'd have to assume Kerry would take 135,000+ of those. Possible, sure, but it's not likely.

It looks like Bush is going to get Ohio, New Mexico and Alaska.

Still haven't got 100% of Ohio in, but it's looking like it's going to be difficult to get this.
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:56 PM   #224
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They won't, but even if they have 200,000 provisional ballots undecided, they'd have to assume Kerry would take 135,000+ of those. Possible, sure, but it's not likely.

It looks like Bush is going to get Ohio, New Mexico and Alaska.

Still haven't got 100% of Ohio in, but it's looking like it's going to be difficult to get this.

Alaska is Bush's no problem.


Remember that the provisionals are from where all the lines are, in the heavy dem areas (cleveland) as far as I know. He's pulling near 2/3 in the county...
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:58 PM   #225
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90% of Cuyahoga in, Bush still up by 100K
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:59 PM   #226
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Over says Brokaw
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:59 PM   #227
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CNN roundtable pretty much giving it to Bush at this point...
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Old 11-02-2004, 11:59 PM   #228
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NBC just gave Ohio. It's OVA!!!
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:00 AM   #229
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90% of Cuyahoga in, Bush still up by 100K

so say it stays at 100k (even tho it has been going down)

with 200k he only needs 50.000001% of the provisionals to take the state.



Ohio has been given to Bush by MSNBC so it's time to go to sleep but with the numbers continually dropping who knows...
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:00 AM   #230
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:01 AM   #231
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CNN calls AK for Bush.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:02 AM   #232
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Bush gets Alaska... Kerry needs a sweep. And that split vote in Maine or something. Come on Bush/Edwards ticket.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:04 AM   #233
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FOX NEWS:

BUSH 269
KERRY 211

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Old 11-03-2004, 12:05 AM   #234
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Dola: Bush Edwards ? Dear God what would the campaign slogan be.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:06 AM   #235
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Somewhere Hillary Clinton is smiling.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:08 AM   #236
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We have 20 year old daughters?
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:08 AM   #237
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Congrats to Bush. He's not the guy I backed, but I offer him the same prayer I would offer Kerry.

"After a time of great division, may you have the wisdom and greatness of spirit to bring our nation together and to preside honestly, ably, and to the best of your ability."
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:08 AM   #238
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Originally Posted by Chubby
so say it stays at 100k (even tho it has been going down)

with 200k he only needs 50.000001% of the provisionals to take the state.



Ohio has been given to Bush by MSNBC so it's time to go to sleep but with the numbers continually dropping who knows...


Here is the problem Chubby. . .

There might be 200k provisional ballots, but that doesn't mean they all get counted. They have to all be looked at and looked over. What's more, is the margain is about 120,000 with 89% in. If that doesn't close, that means Kerry needs 60+% of them to get the win.

It's bleak. No other way to look at it.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:09 AM   #239
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Now Let's get on to healing a nation divided.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:12 AM   #240
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Dola: Bush Edwards ? Dear God what would the campaign slogan be.
No chance. In addition to Bush winning, the Reps have taken a number of Senate seats and would have control over both the House (who would pick President) and Senate (who would pick VP). If it's a tie, it's still over.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:14 AM   #241
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Bush has now taken the lead in Iowa, with 89% of the precincts reporting...
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:15 AM   #242
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Now Let's get on to healing a nation divided.

That worked so well 4 years ago...

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Old 11-03-2004, 12:15 AM   #243
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Now Let's get on to healing a nation divided.

It's a darn shame. We could have started healing a divided world as well.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:17 AM   #244
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Does this mean George won't be baseball Commish?
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:18 AM   #245
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It's a darn shame. We could have started healing a divided world as well.

*chuckles*
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:20 AM   #246
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France, Germany, and Russia just breathed a sigh of relief. ("Whew, looks like we don't have to get off our asses after all!")

Trust me, they are very content with the result. They get to keep bashing America and they get to leave America to do the dirty work of fighting the bad guys by ourselves.

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Old 11-03-2004, 12:23 AM   #247
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Boy if New Mexico stays as it is right now and Bush wins it. Gov. Richardson should get a pie in the face. He came on Fox earlier and all but guaranteed that NM would go to Kerry. Oops.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:23 AM   #248
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France, Germany, and Russia just breathed a sigh of relief. ("Whew, looks like we don't have to get off our asses after all!")

Trust me, they are very content with the result. They get to keep bashing America and they get to leave America to do the dirty work of fighting the bad guys by ourselves.
We're fighting Bin Laden? Thats right, we quit that for a war people could see.

Its funny, but if Bush stayed on task, there would have been no doubt that he cruises this election. Whever told him Iraq was a good idea deserves to be fired.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:31 AM   #249
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I know what you are saying, but if we spent 3 years searching the mountains of Afghanistan for Bin Laden (who could very well be in Bangladesh for all we know) and we let Saddam Hussein keep the status quo, I can promise you Kerry would have had an argument for that too.

I'm sure you can agree that Kerry has to be disagreeable with any choice Bush made.
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Old 11-03-2004, 12:32 AM   #250
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It's deja vu all over again...Kery campaign disputes Ohio call.

Now, I just saw the Ohio Elections Supervisor say that his best estimate is that there are 150K provisionals. Combined with what's left of the regular votes, I'm fine with waiting until 100% report, but I don't see Kerry coming up with what they need to overcome the lead.
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