Alright boyz - 2004 Presidential Election Thread
 

Someone had to do it. :)

It is good to be home.

Just in time, too. It'll be fun monitoring the boards as we monitor the returns.

Group hug!

If I could hug a message board I'd do so right now! :)

BTW, much to Franklinnoble's dismay I'm sure, I was the Patriotic Undies on Bennie Lou's board, so I stand by my prediction that Kerry will win big.

Nice job, I thought it was WSUCougar.

the #'s look pretty good for John Kerry so far from the exit polls, even if you do have to take it with a huge Texas sized grain of salt..

Bringing that discussion over here, after Jim's detailing of the early exit polls, someone suggested that those polls might have been skewed because they were heavily female. Anyone have a source for that? Can anyone get to exit-poll.net, or is it impossible?

I looked at exit-poll.net (using Google cache) , but it seemed like a subscription service you have to pay for to get the information in any case.

I don't have a source, but I have heard from several people around here that the polls were 59 female. They attribute the source to Drudge, but I can't find it there and he has killed exit-poll.net by linking to it.

I can't even load the front page. But buying a subscription to that is even more of a waste than subscribing to rivals.com for recruiting info on signing day.

I think the service is designed for news organizations to subscribe to (not individuals) - that is why they probably weren't expecting the Drudge traffic to crash their site.

Huh. Odd that he would link to them then.

What time do you expect the final "estimation" to be published ?

I feel so...funky. :p

My guess is that he is a subscriber and wanted to show the 6 news organizations that are using it (that was the text of the link I saw). Of course, he should have known the result.

It will probably be the last time we are confused for one another. :p

But will it be the last time either of you are accused of being snugly wrapped around Ben's supple buttocks? :D

I just don't buy the exit polls, it's way too early IMO for Drudge or anyone else to be calling Senate races. Let's relax a bit and let more info come in.

Yeah, I'm shocked he would call the Martinez/Castor race already. Especially since Castor appeared to be in the lead, and he called it for Martinez.

I found a well-known blog posting exit polls:

http://www.dailykos.com/

Party pooper.

slate has new exit polls up that show things tipping Kerry's way, though not as dramatically as the earlier exits. the major one though is PA, where slate shows a 58-42 Kerry edge. Supposedly (and I think that is still a big supposedly), these exits are better sampled than the morning run.

Bush's prices on the Iowa markets (and other similar markets) have crashed throughout the day.

Back off man, I'm a scientist. :)

I could have called that. I think the Kerry win will be closer though.

That's just because you were moderator over there. Now you are back in Skydog territory, so you better step off. :p

I have more control on this board (though only allowed to use it when asked) than on that board. I actually just guessed.

Damn it! Foiled again. I can never fool the master or mis-spelling.

Good won. :)

I knew there was something alluring about those patriotic undies... you tease.

Here is the link to the slate poll page: http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

"Service Unavailable"

:(

I get that sometimes too. Try going to the main Slate page and it is the top story link.

1 hour and counting before early returns.

Polls just closed here. Bush has around 60% of the 1% of votes reported so far.

If Kerry wins, I'm moving. I'm not like one of those poser Hollywood idiots either, I actually mean it.



.....


But then again, I'm moving if Bush wins too. ;)

No surprises here. Bush leading with 63% and 5% reporting.

I don't like typing again so I'll just paste my election duty post from ben's place (to make it FOFC-compatible of course).

Having juse voted, I am reminded at how easy the process is here (compared to elsewhere supposedly). We are fairly populous county (184 precints) and well educated, yet we still fill in bubbles on a large Scantron-like card. Computer voting is just prone to too many problems, glitches and hacks. I think a long time ago we did use punch cards but we all saw how those can problematic too. If you want to make sure your vote counted and counted correctly, how about keeping it simple?

For the first time ever, I voted consistently. I held my nose on President but every other elected office, I voted straight Libertarian - included our contentious Senate race (Coors/Salazar). Of course, I voted out all of the judges and voted NO on every single Amendment. I want to actively make a difference instead of the status quo and these votes (except for President) is my way of doing so.

Sabotai, I saw your vote post and I would be curious as to why a fellow libertarian would vote Kerry. Am I right in assuming that you would want to go for gridlock?

According to the Balance of Power graphics, there is ONE seat filled for the House of Representatives. Please Lord, don't let them add any more...please???

That was the deciding thing (if I read right what you mean by "gridlock"). The House will stay republican and I think the Senate will as well (haven't been following possible senate races). With a Dem in the White House, they'll kind of offset. Kerry won't get his big plans pushed through a congress opposed to him while at least some of those republican bills that are all passing without a threat of veto will start getting vetoed.

Besides, Bush has been against a lot of the important issues for me. No importing prescription drugs from Canada (that's anti-free market). Not allowing Medicare (or Medicaid...whatever) to negotiate drugs costs (anti-free market in more ways than one). He's Pro-Life, I'm pro-choice and I don't trust him for one second that he wouldn't have some kind of lipmus test (sp?). I hear him speak of fiscal responsibility, which he has made no effort to be. The Patriot Act. No Child Left Behind (federal involvement in education).

He's the worst kind of republican.

And don't get me started on Cheney, Ashcroft and Rumsfeld...those 3 are worth a vote against even if I liked Bush.

I don't expect Kerry to fix a tenth of the damage Bush has done, but at the least, he might be able to reverse some of what Bush has done, but not be able to push his own (non)solutions to things. Gridlock.

Plus, getting Kerry in the White Hosue does two things potentially. It could get McCain to run in 2008. I think the Rep. Party would want to follow a Bush second term with a repub that is more like Bush, meaning not McCain. If Bush loses, maybe it'll knock some sense back into the republican party. And two, it stops Hillary from running in 2008.

I think we can both agree that a Hillary Clinton Presidency is something that needs to be avoided at all costs. :)

No call in Ohio at close (no surprise) but I am shocked they can't call North Carolina yet. Isn't that a pretty strong red state?

That's an interesting statement, sab. Even if one were to go along with the damage that was done (wasn't a lot of it undoing the damage that Clinton did? I digress.), aren't we are certain that a Kerry administration will cause damage on their own - that someone like McCain would have to come in and fix?

Apart from being philosophical that we did manage to get through 8 years of Clinton (thanks, in part, to a Rep. Congress), we can get through 4 years of Kerry, if elected. It will be 4 because as you said, you got some very electable Rep. coming in 2008 (McCain, Owens, et al) and the Dems will counter with the likes of the Clinton Bitch, Dean and Obama.

Yep, it was supposed to be solidly Bush as was Virginia which still hasn't been called yet.

Which brings to mind a question. What in the world did Edwards add to the ticket, besides being a sleazy trial lawyer?

That was supposed to be a sign of Kerry strength nation wise according to the early talking heads.

I think North Carolina will eventually go for Bush but it won't surprise me if it's really close, more Democratic-leaning urban voters plus disillusioned manufacturing sector workers will give Kerry a good bit of support.

Remember what's different this year is that the media will hold off until they have enough information. For those more populous states (OH, VA, NC), there is not information yet.

That is true, but the point is that these two states are too close though they should be solid Bush wins. It might suggest a 1-2% tick up for Kerry across the board which would give him a win.

Just an early talking point, not a slam dunk indicator like the Redskins losing.

Looks like WV has gone to Bush (which isn't a big surprise, although some thought it might not get called right away).