2008 Financials Thread

[Kodos]

Sounds right to me. They like to encourage you to trade, and to carry a certain minimum amount to avoid higher fees.

[Flasch186]

February 7

This morning the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged. (this is a correction from earlier)

Jobless claims come out in about an hour and that number should be in line with of the other bad news we've seen over the last week.
Pending Home Sales comes out today too, and we're looking for a little step up here to see some of the inventory diminish.

Great. Wal-Mart (WMT) disappoints on Jan. same store sales so I expect WMT to sell of for today. Surprising because people will buy their consumer staples there but their saying that people are holding giftcards longer and using them on groceries. This is not a good sign for the economy and Im not sure that the people that are in the camp of "small quick recession" will be able to remain in that camp long if the jobless claims # comes out big. Like St. Cronin said above it might have been the right play to have been defensive at this point and I'm not sure it's too late to sell an impending rally, perhaps on an intermeeting cut or something and move into a more defensive name like Healthcare or Consumer Staples, ie. Altria (MO) or Coca-Cola (KO) or cash.

A couple of other retail numbers are a little higher or flat, like Abercrombie and Fitch and Aeropostale so that's a tad unusual. Hmmm, what to make of this BJ's and Costco blow away numbers. It may be that Wal-Mart simply blew it which would be unforgivable considering that in an economic downturn people would shop at WalMart more if they have to shop.

[Flasch186]

DOLA

this Jobless claims # is going to be a huge bellweather. If it's bad we will see an unreal selloff IMO.

The jobs # actually comes down compared to last month. this is very very good and possibly will stem a one day blowout sale. Still today's #'s, Cisco's forecast, Bear Stearns being investigated do not look good for my holdings outside of cash. I do not look forward to watching today...

Cramer just crushed Cisco (CSCO) on Squawk saying he sees it going down to the $11/share range and he is completely off of tech which I interpret to mean Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), etc.

Im not sure what to do, Cronin said to sell it off and he may have been right. Im hitting the trifecta today with WMT and CSCO and XLF.

[Flasch186]

shows how much I know. My holdings arent getting killed and the market is basically flat to a little down. hmmm, dont listen to me.

[st.cronin]

What is Bear Stearns being investigated for?

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

What is Bear Stearns being investigated for?

Theyre (the FEDS) are trying to see if there is culpability for "something" in the securitized debt debacle. The CNBC guy broke it this morning that it is NOT the SEC, but the AG.

...on the markets front it seems that people are saying, "well it could've been worse" and the markets are somewhat treading water and there is some bulls saying that we're loading up for another rally. I dont know though. It might be time to sell the next rally. BTW I love Gamestop (GME) under $50.

[st.cronin]

Hmm. Sounds like an opportunity to me. Bear Stearns is not going to get shut down - they may get a slap on the wrist, but they'll be back.

[Flasch186]

I just couldnt dip into one of the big banks or firms which is why I went XLF. If I pick the wrong one and the shoe drops I could get hurt a ton so the XLF felt like a lower risk (lower reward) way of betting on a financial turnaround this year. I actually may buy more XLF if it pulls back again.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Today, literally, may have been the most confusing day I've seen thus far this year. This morning's news was bad across the board. Retail numbers were bad, the pending home sales numbers we're bad, the ECB held pat on rates, and the jobs number was bad but not necessarily as bad as expected. The market goes up. What?

Cisco (CSCO) up, Wal-Mart (WMT) up, XLF up....

I dont know what to say. Bulls will say that the bottom is in. Bears will say this is a breather after yesterday's sell-off and the next leg down is coming up.

I say, "What am I supposed to do?"

[st.cronin]

Listen to the Bears.

[Flasch186]

I may sell midday tomorrow when I get in and go short with either (SDS) or (QID).

I do see a short term pop coming in China as they may slash rates to try to counter the weather and it's financial effects but would need to read more about it before dipping a toe in.

[Flasch186]

February 8

Consumer Confidence numbers come out at an all time low today but they only started calculating this in 2002. Plus it's not like we didnt already know this simply by going outside or looking at the retail numbers or talking to our friends.

The market is trending slightly down today but who the heck knows what it'll do. I think on any decent rally Im going to sell out of WAl-Mart (WMT) but who knows anymore.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Breaking news:

Goldman Sachs' (GS) employee health care plans will now cover sex reassignment surgery. They said they dont want to be discriminatory.

So the market jumped 5%. Just kidding.

The market has been down all day but has recently cut those losses in half with only about :30 minutes to go. Walmart and the XLF are both down but Cisco has bucked everyone's thoughts by being up after their earnings report the other day and continued it's rise today along with other Nasdaq stalwarts, Apple (AAPL) +3%, Google (GOOG) +2.3%, Rimm (RIMM) +4.6%. If I were in one of those I would sell this rally. Unfortunately Cisco just doesnt behave like these typically volatile stocks so I can't truly take advantage.

Word is that a bond insurer private bailout could be coming to fruition next week and this could definitely spark a small rally. We shall see.

[NoSkillz]

Things were decent in the Canadian market today but with my volatile holdings, it meant a superb day for my portfolio. Research in Motion (RIM - TSX) was the biggest gainer on the index today and I'm currently holding it so that propelled my portfolio to a 2.58% increase today.

Still, I was down for the week. My portfolio fell 2.41%, performing slightly better than the TSX which fell 2.47% over the five day period.

I didn't make one trade during the week, as I'm still convinced that we haven't hit a bottom. I'm still looking to get back into Potash (POT - TSX) but I still believe that its share price will soften somewhat in the next week or so. If it hits $132.00/share, I'll likely make a small purchase with the intention of selling around $142+.

Earnings announcements are due next week for Agrium (AGU - TSX), another agricultural powerhouse, and Teck Cominco (TCK.B - TSX), the largest base metals producer in Canada. I own both stocks and I expect both to report excellent earnings which could propel the share prices higher. Both stocks are represented in that ETF I recommended last week.

[Fighter of Foo]

Intrade has jumped 6 points today on whether there will be a recession in 2008. It's up to 65%. The WSJ yesterday had the odds at 49%. I think we're in recession already and the numbers will show this in a few months.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Intrade has jumped 6 points today on whether there will be a recession in 2008. It's up to 65%. The WSJ yesterday had the odds at 49%. I think we're in recession already and the numbers will show this in a few months.

If the numbers bear that out would we then be looking at markets going down or going up as we look for an end of it already?

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

If the numbers bear that out would we then be looking at markets going down or going up as we look for an end of it already?

Well the general trend will be down, but the rallies will still be there. If I could find one, I'd buy a volatility option because it's far and away the safest bet.

We're still having weekly or even daily rallies as I'm sure you know, but they're becoming shorter and shorter lived. The thing keeping the market up is the hope that the recession will be short and soft, like last time. There's little chance of that happening and once the market realizes it we'll have a full fledged bear market.

[MikeVic]

As I said earlier (I think), I've been following that index fund NoSkillz recommended, and for the last week or so it's been doing good.

I just filled out an application with ETrade, and it kind of confused me. As I'm filling it out, it says to include a cheque made payable to blah blah for at least $1.00. Then when I'm reviewing the application at the end, the items mention a void cheque, but nothing about a $1.00 cheque... I also picked "Account Transfer" as my method of cash transfer.

What I'm wondering is whether the main account page has a better summary:
-$1.00 cheque made payable to blah.
-Application form.
-Photocopy of driver's license.
-W8-Ben.

And once I get approved or whatever, I'd use a "Quick Transfer Authorization Form" to transfer in money. The form requires an ETrade Account Number, which I obviously don't have yet.

Does this sound good, or would ETrade want money somehow (cheque) more than $1 for now?

[Flasch186]

rare weekend post

looks like Yahoo (YHOO) will reject Microsoft's (MSFT) bid for them stating that they feel the bid "massively undervalues the company". Not sure if that's true or not but it certainly was not reflective in their stock price prior to the offer.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

As I said earlier (I think), I've been following that index fund NoSkillz recommended, and for the last week or so it's been doing good.

I just filled out an application with ETrade, and it kind of confused me. As I'm filling it out, it says to include a cheque made payable to blah blah for at least $1.00. Then when I'm reviewing the application at the end, the items mention a void cheque, but nothing about a $1.00 cheque... I also picked "Account Transfer" as my method of cash transfer.

What I'm wondering is whether the main account page has a better summary:
-$1.00 cheque made payable to blah.
-Application form.
-Photocopy of driver's license.
-W8-Ben.

And once I get approved or whatever, I'd use a "Quick Transfer Authorization Form" to transfer in money. The form requires an ETrade Account Number, which I obviously don't have yet.

Does this sound good, or would ETrade want money somehow (cheque) more than $1 for now?

I wish I could help you here but I'm completely unaware of how ETrade goes about their business. There must be someone on here who is using them that can help.

[MikeVic]

I e-mailed them, so hopefully I get an answer shortly.

[Fidatelo]

I'm not sure if this fits here, but over my vacation I read Maxed Out by James Scurlock (http://www.amazon.com/Maxed-Out-Hard...686271&sr=8-3), which is about the effect easy credit has had on the U.S. over the last 30 years.

I found the book pretty fascinating, and recommend it highly. Apparently there is a movie as well, either one would probably give similiar information. It reinforces many of the worries I have about the current state of the U.S. economy, although unfortunately it doesn't do much in terms of forecasting where things will go from here (which is what I'm more intersted in from an investment view).

[Flasch186]

February 11

We'll likely get a little bounce to start the week after last week's negativity.

Netflix (NFLX) announced that they will exclusively carry Blu-Ray.

Apple (AAPL) had a reiteration of a price target in the 200's with a "Buy" rating. I am thinking of trying to average my way into this later this week on a pull back BUT there is a lot of people who think we'll see a retracement to the lows this week or next. You never know when the Fed will throw an intermeeting cut out there.

We should get some data this week to give us a peak into the economy.

Dow changes a few components to it's industrial average removing Altria (MO) and Honeywell (HON) and adding Bank of America (BAC) and Chevron (CVX). This might get a slight bounce to the XLF but nothing to write home about. Bigger news to that holding would be bond insurer news this week.

[Fighter of Foo]

Apologies for not getting to this sooner, but why the optimism this morning? A bunch of banks are trying to dump a bunch of their bad debt for pennies on the dollar this week. It was front page of the journal today:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1202..._us_whats_news

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

Apologies for not getting to this sooner, but why the optimism this morning? A bunch of banks are trying to dump a bunch of their bad debt for pennies on the dollar this week. It was front page of the journal today:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1202..._us_whats_news

It was the futures that I was recapping. It seems that that sentiment was prebell and shortlived.

[Fighter of Foo]

Ah, gotcha.

[Flasch186]

end of day

After the huge letdown early form the AIG (AIG) news regarding the possibility of much larger writedown than previously expected the markets have shaken it off and rallied 100+ points to be positive right now. We shall see if anyone starts to sell into this rally like those of last week. We end the day up and my Wal-Mart stake went up while the XLF went down. All in all, it couldve been much worse.

[MikeVic]

Do you guys have extra insurance over top of whatever you get with work? I met with a financial planner, and after the initial little bit it felt like he was just trying to sell insurance to me. Life insurance and some big illness thig that covers cancer, diabetes, etc.

I have stuff through work, but he says this is more secure or something. And said I should do that before considering investing... just wondering if my bullshit detector is broken. I don't think a lot of people do that. It would be like $150/month for the combined stuff.

[Flasch186]

February 12

Well this morning has been quite interesting. I wake up to find out that Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has offered to reinsure the 3 big Bond insurers. He has given them 30 days to find a better deal but he basically would reissue them paper with triple A ratings through his company. Kind of sad that he is coming to the rescue of this.

Futures point higher on the news and I wonder if this truly isn't the signal that THIS is the bottom of the financial issues. We may bounce along the bottom but perhaps this "spike" isn't the "jump the shark" moment for financials.

Things are looking up this morning and I wonder if it isn't that time I was talking about to try and buy into some stuff on the pull back? Who knows. Anyways, Google, Apple, Rimm (especially considering the outage yesterday) may start a small rally in the tech sector.

[Noop]

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

[MikeVic]

GM reported giant losses last quarter and last year... $722M in the quarter, and $38.7B in the year!! Wow.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Noop

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

I think it's just cyclical and we'll see leadership coming out of the recession that I believe we're in, in groups that tend to lead us out of these except housing which would be the last ones to lead us out.

I just bought a Short on the market in the form of the ETF SDS which is an ultrashort therefore it doubles the play.

This Buffett stuff is a farce (one bond insurer rejected the offer already) as it simply is another "potential". I didnt sell my other holdings because I think that they are decently situated to weather a sell off but I see the retail numbers tomorrow being dismal.

BTW Intel (INTC) has confirmed that the EU has raided it's German offices in an anti-trust investigation.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Do you guys have extra insurance over top of whatever you get with work? I met with a financial planner, and after the initial little bit it felt like he was just trying to sell insurance to me. Life insurance and some big illness thig that covers cancer, diabetes, etc.

I have stuff through work, but he says this is more secure or something. And said I should do that before considering investing... just wondering if my bullshit detector is broken. I don't think a lot of people do that. It would be like $150/month for the combined stuff.

I'm no expert, but this sounds like crap to me. Are you single or married? Do you have kids?

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'm no expert, but this sounds like crap to me. Are you single or married? Do you have kids?

Single, no kids. I thought it was stupid and I kept wanting to walk out.

[Kodos]

It seems like your coverage from work should be adequate then. But, like I said, I'm not an expert. What do other people think?

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Do you guys have extra insurance over top of whatever you get with work? I met with a financial planner, and after the initial little bit it felt like he was just trying to sell insurance to me. Life insurance and some big illness thig that covers cancer, diabetes, etc.

I have stuff through work, but he says this is more secure or something. And said I should do that before considering investing... just wondering if my bullshit detector is broken. I don't think a lot of people do that. It would be like $150/month for the combined stuff.

Tell him you've got insurance, you're not interested in more and if he continues to bring it up, say you're going to another advisor. That will get him/her to stop.

These advisors probably make just as much trying to sell insurance as they do managing portfolios. It's not necessarily a sham but you're already taken care of at work so just say no.

[Flasch186]

I would bet it's a supplementary income for him and unfortunately he's leaning on that.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Noop

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

I'm just an average schmoe Canadian, so take everything I write with that in mind. I have no inside info whatsoever.

I think the U.S. is heading towards a serious recession/possible depression, but the timing is based on how many more tricks the government pulls out of their sleave. I think they will avoid anything serious right now, only to make it worse when they eventually run out of cards.

The crappy thing is that the Canadian economy (and much of the world's) is extremely reliant on America. Whenever the house of cards down there falls down, the destruction will ripple up here too, just hopefully not to the same degree.

[Flasch186]

end of day

Late day move south led by the tech sector BUT we end the day higher overall. The mortgage lenders freeze foreclosure proceedings for 30 days to give people and banks more time to rejigger deals. Light volume in trading leads most people to think that these short rallies are unsustainable.

I stand flat today or a little up with Walmart (WMT) and the XLF, Cisco (CSCO) finishes a tad down. I end up slightly higher in my short position (SDS). In better news, my wife sold a home today

[MikeVic]

I didn't know your wife was in real estate too??

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I didn't know your wife was in real estate too??

yup she does the same thing i do but in a neighborhood on a different side of the city.

[bionicgrov]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Listen to the Bears.

Agreed.

[bionicgrov]

Originally Posted by Noop

Question for those who know. Given that we may be facing a recession(or maybe in one depending on who you) could it get as bad as the great depression? I have been reading a lot of articles today and basically the gist of most of them has been things are much worst then we realize. I even ventured to one of those tin fold sites and reading some of those crazy articles says we need to go to war with Iran in order to save our economy.

I am basically looking for some reassurance because I am about to finish school this summer so the future is coming at me.

The first sentence is your post is so loaded. I wish I knew. The only hope that you have is to read as much info as you can and try to filter what is garbage and what isn't. Sorry for the rant. Now for my 2 cents.

I do think that we will go into a recession. Actually I think that we are in the beginning of one right now. The issue with that statement is that most of the time economists don't know that a recession has taken place until we are 5-6 months into it (or over it). We are in a consumer spending recession right now. Everyone is pulling in the purse strings. Even the super-spenders (those that spend over 150k/year) are slowing it down. Now, do I think it will be as bad as the great depression? No. Becuase the government can pump hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy through rate cuts. And when they do that, people will begin to spend more on their credit cards because the rate is now 14% instead of 18%. I know it doesn't make sense, but never underestimate the level of stupidity in this country. Credit cards were not available in the great depression.

Also, we have many rich, rich countries (China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) that will buy up our debt and receive 4.5% interest and be very happy. During the great depression, do you think it would have been possible for Citibank to sell 8.5 billion in preferred stock to anyone? No. It is no coincidence that financial companies aren't having any problem raising money. I cannot stress that point enough.

Also, keep a close eye on the level of insiders that are buying their own companies stock. When those levels are the highest, it is usually an indicator that they think the stock is cheap.

Sorry for the long post, but I thought I should share my thoughts. If anyone wants me to shut up, please let me know.

[Flasch186]

on the contrary. That's what this thread is for. Are there any companies you'd like to point out as having a high level of insider buying or selling, in your opinion? Particular companies or price targets you like? Bull or Bearish market? for how long, IYO? etc.

[path12]

I'm hearing bad things about the retail numbers coming out tomorrow. I track retail trends, they're about as poor as I've seen in awhile.

[Flasch186]

February 13

Retail sales - "Better than expected"

later - "mixed report"

Notes: Big jump in auto sales and gas station profits.
take out gas and the retail sales number rose only .1%

So we may see some upward ticks in the market today. It was already ticking higher in futures markets. This actually might continue this short term rally through the week.....which means my short position could wipe out any gains I make in my long holdings, hmmmph. If you havnt learned by yet, do the opposite of whatever I do.

[MikeVic]

So I got a reply from etrade and I thought I understood everything... completed almost all of the required documents, but then I got to the W-8BEN...

Is it really true that I have to apply for a U.S. SSN or Tax ID # and would lost 30% on all profits? This kind of caught me off guard. Do you think this applies to savings account income as well as index funds, stocks, etc. Even though I'm doing this through etrade.ca not .com??

[Flasch186]

profits in the US stock market are taxable.

[NoSkillz]

Look for that ETF fund I mentioned earlier to have a really good day today...

Agrium (AGU - TSX; AGU - NYSE) reported ridiculously strong earnings this morning, obliterating expectations and setting company records in the process.

It's a very strong company and is really undervalued at its current share price. I'm trying to add a little bit to my position today, strange for me to jump on a stock on an 'up' day but I expect it to hit $70.00 in the very short term. I'm looking at getting in around $65.25 or so but if it doesn't drop, I'll be content to sit with the shares I already have.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

So I got a reply from etrade and I thought I understood everything... completed almost all of the required documents, but then I got to the W-8BEN...

Is it really true that I have to apply for a U.S. SSN or Tax ID # and would lost 30% on all profits? This kind of caught me off guard. Do you think this applies to savings account income as well as index funds, stocks, etc. Even though I'm doing this through etrade.ca not .com??

Man, ETrade is a hell of a lot more complicated than my Waterhouse account!

I'd call them and ask just to be sure. Profits both in the US and Canada are taxable - in Canada, it's based on a percentage of your normal tax rate (I think it's half). However, if you are putting all of your money in an RRSP investment account, you ARE NOT taxed. I assume based on your previous posts that this is a glorified savings account for you and you plan on drawing money occasionally - therefore, if that's the case, you have to be prepared to pay tax on your capital gains.

When I got set up with TD Waterhouse, they set me up with an RRSP investment account, a 'Cash' investment account and a US investment account. I didn't have to fill out any additional forms, from what I recall, to set up the US account but I haven't made one single purchase in the US market yet.

Again, I'd call just to clarify why/if it's necessary to fill out those forms.