Official 2016 MLB season thread

[EagleFan]

On another note; I think Indians versus Cubs pretty much means we are all screwed. I think this is the 7th sign.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Oh he's gonna throw the last pitch of the season.

After four more wins.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

The Cubs are good, no mistake about it. But they have also been beyond fortunate. The Dodgers sloppy fielding and mental lapses have contributed greatly to their 3 losses.

Fortune/luck/unbelievable luck is the thing in sports talked about least when a lot of times it matters the most. I tell Broncos fans how lucky we were last year and people start screaming at me "we made our own luck" "our defense was historic" "stop insulting us"

(note: this is the same thing a lot of Chiefs fans blasted me on a few years ago when I told them they were living on a house of cards that was about to come crashing down. My hatred of the Chiefs because I brought up that point still gets brought up)

You need great players. You need role players to step up. And a lot of times you need that seeing eye single with the bases loaded, you need that fumbled ball to fall in your lap, you need the puck to take the goofy bounce. . . Look at all of the great dynasties of our lifetimes and you can see MASSIVE luck that was in play. Patriots, Yankees, Steelers, I could go on and on.

My point? Yeah, the Cubs were lucky, but most teams who succeed are.

Congrats to the Cubs and their truly loyal fans. They deserve this.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

On another note; I think Indians versus Cubs pretty much means we are all screwed. I think this is the 7th sign.

Isn't our election the true 7th sign? This is just a confirmation.

[Coffee Warlord]

No matter what sport, you have to have a bounce here and there go your way, especially in the insanity of playoffs. And I sure as hell won't deny they got some bounces.

But this Cubs team is fucking incredibly talented, too. I can't understate how amazing of job Theo has done basically gutting this team and rebuilding it from nothing.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Isn't our election the true 7th sign? This is just a confirmation.

True

[MrBug708]

Congrats to the Cubs

[MizzouRah]

Time to get the Indians hat out of my closet!

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

No matter what sport, you have to have a bounce here and there go your way, especially in the insanity of playoffs. And I sure as hell won't deny they got some bounces.

But this Cubs team is fucking incredibly talented, too. I can't understate how amazing of job Theo has done basically gutting this team and rebuilding it from nothing.

As all of the teams I mentioned are. The Patriots have the best coach and one of the best QB's in the history of the game. The Yankees and Steelers were loaded from top to bottom. The Broncos defense last year WAS historically great.

And these Cubs are beyond good when it comes to talent. They are loaded. How many Dodgers positional players would you take ahead of their Cubs counterparts? Seager over Russell and. . .

It's an amazing team.

[MrBug708]

You bring up a great point about the talent level. The fact that the Dodgers even gave them a series and probably was one terrible pitch away from starting the series 3-0 just shows the chemistry and coaching job Dave Roberts did this year. That being said it's a shame that the Dodgers aren't built to win when Kersahw doesn't pitch great. This year, I really feel worse for Clayton than the team itself. I like him so much as a person, and want him to have a ring more than any player in any sport in my lifetime. It pains me deeply to say it, but his legacy took another hit yesterday. He may arguably be the greatest regular season pitcher in MLB history. What has happened to him on a handful of occasions in the postseason is the most baffling thing I have ever seen in sports. Obviously, the offense was atrocious in game 6. The team talked about giving him run support, and they gave him ZERO. They could not even get hits, let alone runs. But the media will place much of the blame on Kershaw. This is the part I hate. He is such a good dude and it is really crushing to see him struggle. I have finally and stubbornly come to the conclusion he needs two more dominant pitchers on the roster in the postseason. Not just one other, like when they had Greinke. Hill was very good at times as well, but they need to have a deeper rotation. Even when Zack was there, they never went 4-deep like the teams they keep losing to. The Mets had 4 good starters last year, the Cubs this year. Even when they lost to the Cardinals, St. Louis had 4 really good starters. During this 4-year run, the Dodgers have had 2 very good starters and not much else. Ryu was a pretty good 3 the one postseason, but they have never had a real good 1-4. Hopefully Urias and De Leon turn out to be the answer next year. Because asking Kershaw to carry this team has not and will not work. He should NEVER even have to pitch on short rest.

[IlliniCub]

As a lifelong Cubs fan I'm still in shock. I was in tears last night. Before Theo and the host of super prospects arrived, we looked at Javier Baez as being the possible future savior of the franchise. He kind of got lost in the shuffle and justifiably so, but it was great to see him overcome and be the hero. Every single longtime Cubs fan has someone that they're thinking of tonight that didn't live long enough to share this moment with us, and that's what makes it so emotional.

[Logan]

Congrats Cubs fans!

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

You bring up a great point about the talent level. The fact that the Dodgers even gave them a series and probably was one terrible pitch away from starting the series 3-0 just shows the chemistry and coaching job Dave Roberts did this year. That being said it's a shame that the Dodgers aren't built to win when Kersahw doesn't pitch great. This year, I really feel worse for Clayton than the team itself. I like him so much as a person, and want him to have a ring more than any player in any sport in my lifetime. It pains me deeply to say it, but his legacy took another hit yesterday. He may arguably be the greatest regular season pitcher in MLB history. What has happened to him on a handful of occasions in the postseason is the most baffling thing I have ever seen in sports. Obviously, the offense was atrocious in game 6. The team talked about giving him run support, and they gave him ZERO. They could not even get hits, let alone runs. But the media will place much of the blame on Kershaw. This is the part I hate. He is such a good dude and it is really crushing to see him struggle. I have finally and stubbornly come to the conclusion he needs two more dominant pitchers on the roster in the postseason. Not just one other, like when they had Greinke. Hill was very good at times as well, but they need to have a deeper rotation. Even when Zack was there, they never went 4-deep like the teams they keep losing to. The Mets had 4 good starters last year, the Cubs this year. Even when they lost to the Cardinals, St. Louis had 4 really good starters. During this 4-year run, the Dodgers have had 2 very good starters and not much else. Ryu was a pretty good 3 the one postseason, but they have never had a real good 1-4. Hopefully Urias and De Leon turn out to be the answer next year. Because asking Kershaw to carry this team has not and will not work. He should NEVER even have to pitch on short rest.

If someone tries to spin the narrative of last nights game that Kershaw deserves a hit to his legacy or deserves the blame for the game, I'd question their sanity.

I know it will happen. I listed to people talk about how Elway wasn't a hall of fame QB because he had never won a Super Bowl. Screaming about how he had little help and mediocre coaching for most of his career didn't sway many of the naysayers.

But Kershaw last night? He gives up a bloop double to Fowler. The league MVP has a tough at bat and rips a ball through the right side. He's likely stranded if the LF makes a routine catch. Instead it's 2nd and 3rd with nobody out. It also means his pitch count is going to get elevated.

He didn't pitch well, but his 5 post season appearances before this were terrific.His legacy isn't tarnished in my mind.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Weird not seeing the Royals in the World Series, but excited for both teams that made it. They both make our 30 year drought seem not so bad.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Weird not seeing the Royals in the World Series, but excited for both teams that made it. They both make our 30 year drought seem not so bad.

B- work. You can do better.

[jbergey22]

Go Cubs go! Really the only non-Minnesota team I care much about. Kind of soft spot growing up watching them on WGN and all the heartache for their fans. Id rather have them break the slump against the Royals( ) but the Indians will do. Ha! Should be a good series. Cubbies are loaded and should be experiencing a lot of winning over the next 5-10 years.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by digamma

B- work. You can do better.

[Butter]

As an Ohio native and Reds fan, have to root for the Indians here. Good luck to both and their fans, it's going to be heartbreaking one way or the other.

[CrescentMoonie]

If Miller gets out of this, the series may already be over.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

If Miller gets out of this, the series may already be over.

It's one game.

[molson]

I don't know, has a team ever come back from 1-0 in a 7 game series?

[Jon]

Originally Posted by molson

I don't know, has a team ever come back from 1-0 in a 7 game series?

I don't know. It's going to be tough

[bhlloy]

Just like that time James Starks fumbled in the first quarter

[jbergey22]

Stick a fork in the Warriors this year as well. Down 16 to the Spurs.

[Mantle2600]

3 more Tribe fans!!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

I don't know, has a team ever come back from 1-0 in a 7 game series?

The winner of Game 1 has won the last 6 World Series - & 24 of the last 28.
-- via ESPN

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by molson

I don't know, has a team ever come back from 1-0 in a 7 game series?

12 of the last 13 haven't.

[molson]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

12 of the last 13 haven't.

In history, 64.5% of Game 1 winners went on to win the world series, and its 64.1% overall in MLB 7-game playoff series. I don't think anything dramatically changed 13 years ago, or anything particularly special about the World Series in that regard. 538 has the Cubs odds at about 45% to win the series now, which seems about right, they should have a somewhat better shot than the historical 36% chance when they were a solid favorite going in, and when they were on the road in game 1.

But really, in baseball, a single game is close to a coin flip. Winning 4 out 6 is hard, but not impossible. Lots of teams have done it in a 7-game series. Including the Cubs just this season in the NLCS. Hell, they were down 2-1, which is statistically more difficult to come back from (29% historically, in MLB 7-game playoff series), but again, not impossible, obviously.

Edit: whowins.com has interesting breakdowns of those probabilities, though the website is a bit of a mess.

[Jon]

Originally Posted by molson

In history, 63% of Game 1 winners went on to win the world series, and its 64% overall in MLB 7-game playoff series. I don't think anything dramatically changed 13 years ago, or anything particularly special about the World Series in that regard. 538 has the Cubs odds at about 45% to win the series now, which seems about right, they should have a somewhat better shot than the historical 37% chance when they were a solid favorite going in.

But really, in baseball, a single game is close to a coin flip. Winning 4 out 6 is hard, but not impossible. Lots of teams have done it in a 7-game series. Including the Cubs just this season in the NLCS. Hell, they were down 2-1, which is statistically more difficult to come back from, but again, not impossible, obviously.

538 also has the Cubs as 54% chance of winning game 2. I still think the Cubs are favored. This was more of a must win game for the Indians than the Cubs. Kluber is their best pitcher and it will really be on Francona to manage it.

I'm happy with them getting Miller to throw his highest number of pitches in 5 years.

Should be good, though they moved the game up to 7 Eastern because of rain, which means I'll miss a lot of it here.

[RainMaker]

I guess what gives me hope is Bauer and Tomlin are not exactly world-beaters. If the Cubs can get to them early like they did with Maeda in the NLCS, they can avoid the pen.

Kluber was amazing tonight but he can't pitch every game. And I feel the Cubs have a chance to beat him once if he throws 3 games (especially him on 3 days rest in the next 2 starts).

[Sweed]

So for all of the stat experts a question.

Series is tied 1-1 going to Chicago. If Chicago had won game 1 and lost game 2 stats show a 64.5% chance to win series. BUT they lost game 1 and won game 2, now what? Is Cleveland still statistically favored since they won game 1?

How many of those actual 64.5% winners also won game 2 for a 2-0 lead?

I'm not a statistician but in my mind any visitor getting the 1-1 split comes out the favorite whether they won game 1 or game 2. Am I wrong?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I'm not a statistician but in my mind any visitor getting the 1-1 split comes out the favorite whether they won game 1 or game 2. Am I wrong?

Nope! Even if the series odds going in were 50/50, Chicago would now be the fav having 3 home games vs 2 home games for Cleveland. However losing either of the next two would put the Cubs back to playing underdog(possibly). With the Cubs being pretty big favs going in if the series is tied at 2 after 4 Cubs still might be very slight favs even with the Indians have 2 home games vs 1.

Im seeing Cubs around -220 to win right now. Indians are +200.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Nope! Even if the series odds going in were 50/50, Chicago would now be the fav having 3 home games vs 2 home games for Cleveland. However losing either of the next two would put the Cubs back to playing underdog(possibly). With the Cubs being pretty big favs going in if the series is tied at 2 after 4 Cubs still might be very slight favs even with the Indians have 2 home games vs 1.

Im seeing Cubs around -220 to win right now. Indians are +200.

Yes, that is how I see it and always have but....

After game 1 everybody goes on and on about how Chicago is in trouble because game 1 winners win the series 65% of the time. Yet it seems to me coming out 1-1 with 3 of next 5 at home makes you the favorite. But... again it's posted here that 12 of the last 14 have not overcome losing game 1 and going down 1-0. So for the statisticians I was asking can Cleveland, winning game 1, still really be the favored to win the series? Without them going up 2-0 I don't see how. And if they have to go up 2-0 to stay the favorites what does a 1-0 start at home really mean if you don't win game 2? Nothing?

Just seems to me the odds shift with every game and the predicted outcome can't be based on series from years past with totally different teams and players. I think it just makes for interesting chatter among the talking heads and on fan forums. As a laymen, when it comes to deep statistical studies, am I wrong?

[albionmoonlight]

The Cubs Beat The Front-Running Indians At Their Own Game | FiveThirtyEight

The key to front-running is a versatile, opportunistic offense (check), good starting pitching (check) and — most importantly — a lights-out bullpen (um, check). Cleveland is custom-built for winning that way, and they’ve shown just how effective it can be in the small-sample gantlet of the playoffs. You can bet other teams will think about how to copy that style going into next season and beyond.

What am I missing? Isn't this article just saying that the key to playing winning baseball is to have good offense, good starting pitching, and good relief pitching?

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Just seems to me the odds shift with every game and the predicted outcome can't be based on series from years past with totally different teams and players. I think it just makes for interesting chatter among the talking heads and on fan forums. As a laymen, when it comes to deep statistical studies, am I wrong?

Stats don't lie. If the Cubs come back and win the series, it doesn't mean it was "wrong" to say that 65% (or whatever) of Game 1 winners go on to win the WS. It's just another entry into the other side of the equation which will result in us hearing "6X% of G1 winners go on to win the WS" next year.

It's how you use stats that are important. It wouldn't be a good argument to claim the Indians will win the WS because the winner of G1 goes on to win the WS 65% of the time.

The stats are what they are because you have to win four games, and it's easier to win four once you've won the first as you now have six chances to win three instead of needing to win four in those six chances.

[Jas_lov]

Tito Francona is managing circles around Maddon. Why is John Lackey pitching in a must win game? Tito went with his ace. And why was Bryant playing so far back with Kluber hitting? That cost them a run.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Tito Francona is managing circles around Maddon. Why is John Lackey pitching in a must win game? Tito went with his ace. And why was Bryant playing so far back with Kluber hitting? That cost them a run.

Maddon is actually a really bad playoff manager. Just not much of a tactician.

[Peregrine]

Man that Kipnis jack just put a knife in the heart of the Cubs (and their fans) for this game.

[RainMaker]

It was over at 4-1. Cubs offense just didn't show up in the playoffs. Much like last year in the NLCS. Great regular season team though, just need a few bats who won't crater in the playoffs.

[Peregrine]

I would say it's not "mysterious lack of Cubs bats" but "really good Indians pitching" for a lot of it. It's true though that the Cubs seem like a whole different team than in the regular season.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

I would say it's not "mysterious lack of Cubs bats" but "really good Indians pitching" for a lot of it. It's true though that the Cubs seem like a whole different team than in the regular season.

Dodgers were clowning them for a portion of the series. Same with the Giants. Offense has been pretty poor all playoffs.

Cleveland has good pitching but guys like Josh Tomlin should not be clowning you.

[Peregrine]

Good point.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Dodgers were clowning them for a portion of the series. Same with the Giants. Offense has been pretty poor all playoffs.

Cleveland has good pitching but guys like Josh Tomlin should not be clowning you.

Dodgers just ran out of pitchers. And couldn't hit

[RainMaker]

It's tough to judge that Dodgers series because Kershaw was clearly not 100%. Couldn't throw his curveball at all and was basically a 2-pitch guy.

[Jas_lov]

I think it's more Cleveland pitching, specifically Kluber, Miller and Allen. They did go 8-1 vs Boston and Toronto, two of the best lineups in the league. Lackey should not have been out there. Tito got the upperhand throwing his ace tonight.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

I would say it's not "mysterious lack of Cubs bats" but "really good Indians pitching" for a lot of it. It's true though that the Cubs seem like a whole different team than in the regular season.

The Cubs offense is built to work counts and get into the bullpen. It's something that's worked in baseball forever, but against teams that have started to focus on building an elite bullpen it runs into problems in the postseason. During the regular season the Indians aren't going to be willing to bring in Andrew Miller and Cody Allen every game, but in the postseason it happens.

If you work counts and knock an Indians starter out of the game you're likely going to face even better pitchers the rest of the way. That works heavily against what the Cubs do.

[Logan]

Mets' Familia was arrested on a DV charge last week. Goodbye.

[Coffee Warlord]

Joe West has no business being in the World Series, let along calling balls and strikes.

[EagleFan]

Looks like he took some extra roids before this start.

[wustin]

How ironic would it be if the Indians blow a 3-1 lead.