Revolution(s) in the Arabian World

[JonInMiddleGA]

Noting for future reference that one of those cited as a key figure is Iranian apologist (and former director of the IAEA) ElBaradei. Fills me with confidence, yessiree.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Note to American reporters who are getting their ass kicked by crowds and wondering what they did to deserve it.......

You're an American reporter in a Muslim country with a whole lot of unemployed, pissed off mobs in the streets. All rules are out the window.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Note to American reporters who are getting their ass kicked by crowds and wondering what they did to deserve it.......

You're an American reporter in a Muslim country with a whole lot of unemployed, pissed off mobs in the streets. All rules are out the window.

The protesters seem friendly to them. It's the President's gang/staged protesters that is turning on the violence.

[Galaxy]

Looks like it's getting ugly now. It'll be interested to see how the WH responds now.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Looks like it's getting ugly now. It'll be interested to see how the WH responds now.

U.S. Negotiating Mubarak's Severance Package | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[Fidatelo]

Got the following two emails from an Egyptian (former) co-worker of mine (the first came yesterday afternoon, the second came this morning):

"I am sorry to use this mailing list for a political topic, but we here in Cairo need all support we can. What I will list here is what I have seen with my own eyes today in Tahrir Square.
Today we were discussing if we will trust Mubarak's statements with two groups, I was pro going back home and leaving a sympolic camp to allow normal flow in Egypt. Towards the middle of the day Pro Mubarak demos strted entering Tahrir Square, we rushed to peacifuly stand and defend the square. For around 30 minutes it was just chants. A group of Mubarak supporters split, and naiively I thought that this was a sign of chaos in the pro Mubarak group and the demos will end soon. Suddenly stones came from what seems to be the split group, I can't confirm that it was them, but it seems that stones coming from their side on the bigger Mubarak's supporters, and clashes started and lasted for a while untill a point of calmness where we though the end of the violence. We began chanting "We are all Egyptians" when suddenly a group of people riding horses and camels stormed towards us beating the demonstrators merlicelessy re-igniting the clashes. We have caught a police officer in civilian clothes and a group of employees in the government claiming that they were directed to end the demos in Tahrir or else they will not receive their salaries.
The organizers of the anti-regime protests were extremely cautious not to use violence. To join the group I had to be searched multiple times to make sure I or anyone carries any weapons of any sort, but the regime wanted violence. I just hope that you can support us by spreading the word and if you can pressure your governments to act on ending this oppressive regime.
We have Microsoft Egypt employees and local community activists among the demonstrators. Wael Ghoneim, Google's marketing manager who is also an activist has been missing since Thursday. Please help us end the oppression.
Best Regards,"

"Thank you very much for your support, it means a lot to me. I understand that it may be difficult for you to understand what we are suffering so let me briefly tell you what we are subjected to

- It started on Jan 25 through demonstrations organized primarily through social networks
- Some clashes in the city of Suez left 3 dead fueling more anger
- Groups called for a day of anger on Jan 28th, the regime responded by blocking ALL internet access and ALL wireless communications
- Despite of the unprecedented actions on Jan 28 around 1 million demonstrators in Cairo alone went to the streets confronted by brutal force that left 300 dead as reported by human rights groups, while the official numbers are 73
- The regime changed the tactic by taking all the people as hostage. The army went to the street enforcing a 14-16 hour curfew. The police completely disappeared from the streets unleashing criminals from some prisons to induce fear among the public and blaming the protestors through public TV, also all banks have been closed and some government employee salaries have been delayed.
- Consistently accusing the protesters of being funded by foreign sources, and claiming that foreign agents have been arrests to justify actions against foreign reporters.
- Fueling yesterday's clashes that included Molotov cocktails and some gun fires killing at least 5 demonstrators. Many secret police officers and detectives have been caught by demonstrators proving direct government involvement in yesterday's clashes.
- Today's tactic has changed by using smaller groups of thugs to prevent entry of medical and food aid to demonstrators.
- Today is relatively calm but the situation is likely to explode tomorrow."

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Note to American reporters who are getting their ass kicked by crowds and wondering what they did to deserve it.......

You're an American reporter in a Muslim country with a whole lot of unemployed, pissed off mobs in the streets. All rules are out the window.

Is that how it is/was being portrayed over in the US ? To me it´s fairly clear that all this has still nothing to do with religion. Not the protests, not the counter-attacks by the protestors/plain-cloth police people/hired thugs, not the attacks on journalists (seriously, there are tons of reports of attacks on muslim journalists being attacked).

It´s strange how a lot of folk refuse to grant muslim people the ability to protest/fight with a political agenda.

Of course there will be attempts by conservative muslim forces to take advantage, but as a whole this thing has very little to do with religion right now. Which wouldn´t be any different if such uproar would happen in the US, you could bet that certain elements would try to use it as an excuse to get rid of non-christians or immigrants.

Heck, theres also many reports of christians and muslims supporting each other during the protests.

Very ugly day yesterday, not a ton better today but a little bit. Really damn near impossible to get a read on the situation but it seems very plausible when people say that those pro-mubarak groups are well too organized, prepared and equiped to deny there´s some involvement of people connected to power, to put it lightly ...

edit : ah the timing, thanks for posting that @ Fidatello

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by whomario

... but it seems very plausible when people say that those pro-mubarak groups are well too organized, prepared and equiped to deny there´s some involvement of people connected to power, to put it lightly ...

Really more of a general observation here, Egypt just happens to provide the most current example but ... exactly what sort of idiot would someone have to be to not try to stay in power?

I mean, never mind any personal gain or whatever, at an even more basic level I don't picture an overwhelming majority of rulers who are facing the prospect of being deposed as sitting around thinking "y'know, we really do suck, so this is probably for the best".

There are certainly some pure profiteers out there, I'm not disputing that. Just saying that there also seems to be a camp that would fall into something like "yeah, I'm getting rich but I'm also a much better alternative for the country than X or Y". Just seems unnatural to somehow think they should just step aside quietly when even strong winds blow against them, I don't really believe all of them believe they're really bad by comparison.

[Rizon]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Looks like it's getting ugly now. It'll be interested to see how the WH responds now.

AC got rolled on. I thought it was kind of funny.

[albionmoonlight]

Pic of Christians in Egypt protecting Muslims during their prayers:

[molson]

Mubarak claims he wants to resign immediately but is worried about the country falling into chaos if he does.

BBC News - Egypt unrest: Hosni Mubarak warns of chaos if he quits

That sounds silly at first, as if there's no chaos at the moment, but I think he has a point. What happens if there's a sudden power vacuum in Egypt? We could move pretty quickly from moderately violent protests to war. The news paints a picture of the entire country engulfed by riots but that isn't reality, yet.

[ISiddiqui]

LOL! I like that. I'd like to resign, but then the country would fall into chaos... isn't that the reason a Vice President was just recently put into place? So that he could proceed over an orderly transition?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

LOL! I like that. I'd like to resign, but then the country would fall into chaos... isn't that the reason a Vice President was just recently put into place? So that he could proceed over an orderly transition?

Except, isn't the new VP disliked even more than Mubarak?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Except, isn't the new VP disliked even more than Mubarak?

Or at least equally? That seemed to be the take I saw when he was named, somethign to the effect that he was just a Mubarak pawn, that he was not acceptable as a successor, blah blah blah.

[molson]

In fact, the protesters seem to be demanding a power vacuum, rather than any particular presidential replacement. There's no leader of this opposition that they're trying to put into power.

[lighthousekeeper]

Beware the camel's nose.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

In fact, the protesters seem to be demanding a power vacuum, rather than any particular presidential replacement. There's no leader of this opposition that they're trying to put into power.

Isn't that true with most democratic revolts? Who did the French want in charge? Who did Americans want in charge? In a lot of ways I think it's much more healthy to not coalesce around a cult of personality.

[Galaxy]

I just found it weird that the military is basically sitting on the sideline (literally) of these uprisings.

Wouldn't, you a soldier that is sitting on a tank, want to try to use the power you have to try to reduce the violence? They seem to back the Anti-government protesters.

[JPhillips]

Not if the military leaders are trying to find a way to keep the military in charge.

[Galaxy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Not if the military leaders are trying to find a way to keep the military in charge.

Yeah I know. It's just strange.

[whomario]

i agree that the situation is very strange. Right now it seems though as if the military will get more today and that on the side of the pro-democracy supporters. Right now the minister of defense and multiple leading military people are visiting Tahrir square to get an overview on the situation and logistics.
It is also pretty strange that it still is such a small amount of soldiers, considering the resources of the egyptian army this is hardly more than that Seems they are still struggling to decided what to actually do and this way they can say they can´t do much with such little personell.

The muslim brotherhood also stated they won´t enter a candidate for the presidential selection.

Today after the friday prayer (starting in about half an hour) the protesters plan to do marches from all mosques back to Tahrir square as well as to the state TV station and the parliament. Walking to the presidiential palace hasn´t been mentioned but who knows ...


also, as far as i know the vice president isn´t (or rather wasn´t) disliked per se, it´s just that he was apointed by Mubarak at the time he was. Had he been apointed 2 years ago people would have cheered and would Mubarak have stepped down i guess he would have been on the list of persons that the oposition would have tried to get on board for the transition-period.
But the way it happened was just ridiculous. Also, some of the ministers Mubarak fired last saturday were actually well-liked by the public and were definitely not high on the list of "people that have to go"...

As

[whomario]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Pic of Christians in Egypt protecting Muslims during their prayers:

via aljazeera blog just now :

12:35pm: Our correspondent in Alexandria says tens of thousands of people have gathered in the centre of Alexandria. He says Christians and others not performing Friday prayers have formed a "human chain" around those praying to protect them from any potential disruptions.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by whomario

The muslim brotherhood also stated they won´t enter a candidate for the presidential selection.

I'm assuming this refers to not wanting one of their own to be part of any interim Presidency. If so, smart move on their part, no sense taking on the taint of failure & hurting their chances to gain more power down the road.

[ISiddiqui]

It is very heartening to see Christians and Muslims protecting each other in Egypt.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It is very heartening to see Christians and Muslims protecting each other in Egypt.

+1

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by whomario

via aljazeera blog just now :

Love it

[sterlingice]

I might be totally wrong with this but I have an eerie feeling tonight. Last time I felt it was the night before Katrina hit- basically, people were talking about it being bad but catastrophic was just pushed aside. Kindof like people complaining about weather forecasters making things up with snow storms or the like, there was just a sense of "A whole city can't go underwater- it's just unimaginable". I told my wife that night, "I'm not joking- there's a coin flip New Orleans gets destroyed tomorrow and no one wants to confront how good the odds are of that" (And for a while, it looked like I was wrong. A couple of hours after it blew through, it looked like the worst was over. Then the levee failed and that was that...)

Well, I've got that feeling again tonight. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding the situation. I turned on my radio twice today to NPR and was listening around 3, heading over to a meeting, and the people were so happy- there was the message from the military and people were expecting Mubarak to step down. Then I was heading home at 6 and, well, I heard that what was expected didn't happen at all. You just took a group of people who were so excited and jubilant this afternoon and then you turned that energy into stunned silence followed by pure rage.

I think the military, as is always the case in situations like this, is going to be the determining factor. But I think they're going to just sit this one out on the sidelines if things get ugly and Mubarak is going to get thrown out of the palace tomorrow. I just don't see how this ends any other way. I suppose the military could step up and start gunning down civilians but I just don't see it. They don't seem particularly loyal to Mubarak and I think he's seen his last sunset in power.

Then who knows what happens... But maybe I'm wrong. I don't quite understand international politics as well as I understand weather

SI

[cartman]

I can easily see a situation like the end of the Ceausescu regime in Romania taking place.

[JPhillips]

No way the military cedes control to civilians without a fight.

[sterlingice]

I don't think they cede control- they just step aside, let the civilians get their pound of flesh, then fill the power vacuum.

SI

[JPhillips]

The military already has their guy in Sulieman. If Mubarak leaves I can't see any way now that Sulieman takes over. I've been worried about violence for several days now. It just seems like the protesters and the guys with tanks want completely different outcomes.

Of course there are reports of the army being closely involved with a number of disappearances.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Mubarak steps down.

[DaddyTorgo]

Took him long enough. Now we'll see if there's actual change or if he's just decided to basically retire and leave Suliman as the new hard-man

[ISiddiqui]

And cedes power to the military.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Mubarak steps down.

i´m wondering if there ever will be any sort of explanation why the hell he took so long ? Never mind the 3 weeks of protest, but why today and not yesterday ? Did he honestly believe his speech could calm things down or win "his people" over again ?


the scenes that unfolded directly following the anouncement were incredible. Even yesterday before said speech the pictures were pretty amazing with that whole square and surrounding streets packed with flag-waving and singing people.
I find it pretty remarkeable that aside from the first couple days where the police tried put them down and then later the mubarak-supporters/paid thugs came out everything has been this peacefull and well organised, considering everybody claimed it wouldn´t be.
Seeing how they basically built this village on the square with all sorts of people helping out with water, food or medical aid, that´s pretty great.


this still won´t be the end of it i´d say though.

[JonInMiddleGA]

For as unpleasant as he might have been, the odds of an even less palatable* successor seem awfully high.

*... to U.S./Western/Israeli interests. Clarifying before anyone even asks

[whomario]

i normally don´t put much trust into military, but considering their role so far (yes, they could have helped the protesters more, but considering the close connection to Mubarak they were great) and the fact that they are very much under pressure due to the amount of money they get from the US and other, i´m actually cautiously optimistic that this can work as a transitionary solution.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by whomario

this still won´t be the end of it i´d say though.

Yup. Now the hard part starts for the Egyptian people. God be with them. I really hope that this all works out in the end.

[JediKooter]

c57.jpg

[JPhillips]

So the protesters are cheering a new military dictatorship.

And they think they won?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Attachment 2399

Hey!

[JediKooter]

You've been busy Cartman.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by whomario

i normally don´t put much trust into military, but considering their role so far (yes, they could have helped the protesters more, but considering the close connection to Mubarak they were great) and the fact that they are very much under pressure due to the amount of money they get from the US and other, i´m actually cautiously optimistic that this can work as a transitionary solution.

It worked decently in Turkey, and the simple fact is that there isn't really any other solution in this type of situation - there are no other institutions who can typically assume day-to-day operating responsibility in counrties in these situations (by virtue of the fact that they've been dictatorships). Egypt is actually helped by the fact that it's a draft-army too, rather than a Revolutionary Guard-style elite military.

[Warhammer]

But in Turkey they had a hero in Ataturk. Not sure that outside of the military that situation is similar to this one at all.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

But in Turkey they had a hero in Ataturk.

Ataturk? Is that like Attaboy, except in Turkish?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

But in Turkey they had a hero in Ataturk. Not sure that outside of the military that situation is similar to this one at all.

Every country is different, but it seems that the military, in not blindly following Mubarak will be amenable to a democracy (one where it has a lot of power, of course).

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Ataturk? Is that like Attaboy, except in Turkish?

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The founder of Turkey. He kept the Western Allies from partioning Turkey after WWI and then led a series of secular reforms to westernize the country and send it down the path of secularism vs. an islamic state.

[JediKooter]

So THAT's how we got Thanksgiving...

[cartman]

According to the BBC, there are all sorts of protests and opposition rallies in Tehran today:

BBC News - Iran police fire tear gas at opposition rally in Tehran

[Thomkal]

CNN had a great video this morning. People were too scared of the government to gather in the streets overnight, so people started shouting freedom messages from the balconies at their apartments-you can hear the messages echoing throughout the city.