Alright boyz - 2004 Presidential Election Thread

[Peregrine]

What's cracking me up about CNN's coverage is that since they're calling the states on strong exit polls, but they have the same crawl system set up, you see things like:

Georgia (called for Bush) Bush 38% 130 - Kerry 62% 212

Those 342 votes must count a hell of a lot!

[Buccaneer]

GD, it all depends which 1% of the precincts they count first, from an urban area or a statewide sample. I believe that differs from state to state.

[Peregrine]

Anyone have a good line on the Kentucky Senate race? Looks like right now Bunning is showing as losing, I thought people felt that was a pretty safe GOP hold.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

Anyone have a good line on the Kentucky Senate race? Looks like right now Bunning is showing as losing, I thought people felt that was a pretty safe GOP hold.

Last I saw, he was trailing but it's still wayyyyyyy early.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Remember what's different this year is that the media will hold off until they have enough information. For those more populous states (OH, VA, NC), there is not information yet.

I think what it indicates is that the exit polls were much closer in NC and VA than expected. They still are using exit polls and then filling in the statistical model with actual results until they get a degree of certainty (1 in 300 of being wrong according to FoxNews compared to 1 in 250 in 2000). If the exit polls were as strong for Bush as the pre-election polls, they'd have been called by now, especially in VA where the polls closed at 6 pm.

[Buccaneer]

You know, despite all of the rhetoric and gnashing of false teeth, we have to feel very fortunate that 1) no domestic terrorists act disrupted the election and 2) that we can have a peaceful election and no one will riot as the result.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Bee

I think what it indicates is that the exit polls were much closer in NC and VA than expected. They still are using exit polls and then filling in the statistical model with actual results until they get a degree of certainty (1 in 300 of being wrong according to FoxNews compared to 1 in 250 in 2000). If the exit polls were as strong for Bush as the pre-election polls, they'd have been called by now, especially in VA where the polls closed at 6 pm.

Exactly.


BTW, Dan Rather is still nuts and it hasn't even gotten late yet.

[gottimd]

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but WTF, I am doing it anyways...
Exit Polls Report as of 4PM

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Bee

I think what it indicates is that the exit polls were much closer in NC and VA than expected. They still are using exit polls and then filling in the statistical model with actual results until they get a degree of certainty (1 in 300 of being wrong according to FoxNews compared to 1 in 250 in 2000). If the exit polls were as strong for Bush as the pre-election polls, they'd have been called by now, especially in VA where the polls closed at 6 pm.

Hasn't history shown that exit polls are fallible?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Hasn't history shown that exit polls are fallible?

Yes, but your still missing the point. If it were a wide margin, then they could and would call. A close margin is what messes up exit polls, and that looks good for Kerry (not to win those states, but as a trend for even closer states).


Latest Rather line: Don't taunt the aligator until you have already crossed the creek.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

That's an interesting statement, sab. Even if one were to go along with the damage that was done (wasn't a lot of it undoing the damage that Clinton did? I digress.), aren't we are certain that a Kerry administration will cause damage on their own - that someone like McCain would have to come in and fix?

Basically, yeah. As long as we keep alternating presidents who have to spend a good portion of time fixing the mistakes of the previous election, they don't have time to do a lot of damage. IOW, they don't get going. There's no momentum and nothing major really gets totally fucked up. Keeping one party in chage of the execuative and the other in charge of the legislative also helps prevent the Prez doing some major damage. I really think if Bush wins, and the congress stays Republican, the next 4 years will be very very bad.

Apart from being philosophical that we did manage to get through 8 years of Clinton (thanks, in part, to a Rep. Congress), we can get through 4 years of Kerry, if elected. It will be 4 because as you said, you got some very electable Rep. coming in 2008 (McCain, Owens, et al) and the Dems will counter with the likes of the Clinton Bitch, Dean and Obama.

Let's hope by 2012, the Dems find some one else besides Dean and Clinton, although I doubt Dean is "electable". Unless McCain wins in 2008, then let's hope the Dems keep shooting themselves in the foot. Then hopefully by 2016, Clinton and Dean is out of the picture.

Ideally, we would like libertrian minded moderates from either side. Right now, Bush and Kerry, are way too far to the right or left. Hopefully, after enough 1 term presidencies, they'll get the picture and start going back to the middle.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Hasn't history shown that exit polls are fallible?

Any poll can be fallible. The average poll is wrong 5% of the time. Exit polls tend to be more accurate than an average poll, but the media still waits to report until they can do so with the odds of the poll being wrong only 1 out of 300 times (edit: At least that's FoxNews criteria, I'd guess all media have similar criteria). The bigger the statistical lead in the original exit polls the less % of precincts reporting are needed.

Right now Virginia has 12% reporting and Bush with 57%, but they still haven't called it. That indicates to me that the exit polls were very close.

[Buccaneer]

But a wide margin where? It's only as good as the sampling data and where you choose to poll. For example, here in Rep-dominated Colorado Springs, there are no sampling or exit polling because the model is predictive. However, if you look at just Denver and Pueblo for exit polling, then the results will be skewed.

[Peregrine]

Unless McCain wins in 2008

As much as I would love to see this happen, I just don't think the national Republican Party will let McCain be their nominee. He's too moderate for many of them, and he doesn't play nice with their political machine, as was seen by its reaction to him in the 2000 election. That said, I think he could win in a landslide if he was nominated. He's just that popular, I'd be jumping for joy to vote for him.

[TargetPractice6]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

Anyone have a good line on the Kentucky Senate race? Looks like right now Bunning is showing as losing, I thought people felt that was a pretty safe GOP hold.

Bunning should have easily won, but throughout the campaign continued to make mistakes. I believe he is becoming senile. He cheated during one of the debates and has insulted Mongiardo several times (for example saying he looked like one of Saddam's sons).

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

But a wide margin where? It's only as good as the sampling data and where you choose to poll. For example, here in Rep-dominated Colorado Springs, there are no sampling or exit polling because the model is predictive. However, if you look at just Denver and Pueblo for exit polling, then the results will be skewed.

That's why they use a statistical model. The exit polls are weighed statewide based on dozens of factors. The accuracy improves as more precincts report. If they are slow to call a state like they have been in VA where Bush is expected to win solidly with 12% of the precinct reporting it indicates exit polls that were much closer than expected.

[Peregrine]

CNN is calling New Jersey for Kerry, despite the polls in recent days I never imagined that state going for Bush.

[GrantDawg]

The New England States and Illinios close and the race tightens.

CNN: Bush 66 Kerry 77 (They still haven't called SC?)
CBS: Bush 80 Kerry 77

[GrantDawg]

CBS has been the most aggressive of all nets so far. They just called NC and Virgina for Bush

CBS: Bush 108 Kerry 77
CNN: Bush 66 Kerry 77
Drudge: Bush 66 Kerry 77
ABC: Bush 66 Kerry 77

[Peregrine]

looking at CNN's county by county thing, looks like Bush is doing pretty well in the critical Florida counties. He may have a good shot to win the state.

[Neuqua]

In a shocker, Obama wins the Senator seat in IL.

[Chubby]

florida is shaded as leaning bush on yahoo.com

[Franklinnoble]

Al Jazeera has just called Fallujah for Kerry...

[gottimd]

CNN said Bush has a 55%-45% lead, but very little have reported in florida.

[Chubby]

56-44 Kerry in Ohio?

[Buccaneer]

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html...SULTS_GRAPHIC/ is probably more accurate at this time. The networks are doing their shit just so they can get viewers watching their ads.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Al Jazeera has just called Fallujah for Kerry...

and Iran for Bush...

[gottimd]

What about the Black Gay Republicans?

[Buccaneer]

Anyone has an exit poll from the dead votes?

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Anyone has an exit poll from the dead votes?

I don't know Bucc...who did you vote for?

[Buccaneer]

From CNN

Projections: Kerry to win N.J., Bush strong in South


If the Northeast goes all blue as expected, would (should?) the South secede again?

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

From CNN

Projections: Kerry to win N.J., Bush strong in South


If the Northeast goes all blue as expected, would (should?) the South secede again?

That would be cool. Perhaps Northern Virginia could break off like West Virginia did and become it's own state.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Bee

I don't know Bucc...who did you vote for?

Hey, I'm still breathing in and out. At least my ID and my live presense matched me up to what's on the voter roll. I don't think we can say that in some precincts aournd the country.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

From CNN

Projections: Kerry to win N.J., Bush strong in South


If the Northeast goes all blue as expected, would (should?) the South secede again?

I liked the comment on MSNBC that the north and south can't agree so the midwest is going to decide it for us

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Latest Rather line: Don't taunt the aligator until you have already crossed the creek.

Line from some reporter on Fox News:

I don't think I could say anything more smart than that.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Latest Rather line: Don't taunt the aligator until you have already crossed the creek.

He seems to be channeling the spirit of Ross Perot.

[Buccaneer]

This election season/night has been a fun strategy game, which has been my primary interest in following along.

[GrantDawg]

New states and the updates:

CBS: Bush 162 Kerry 112
CNN: Bush 155 Kerry 112
Drudge/Yahoo: Bush 102 Kerry 77

[Stevedubbya]

Still people standing in line in Ohio. Im thinking that if Ohio goes Kerry, and Wisconsin goes Bush, its a dead heat assuming florida for bush and pennsylvania for kerry.

[BishopMVP]

Based on actual results coming in, it appears Florida was a fair bit off at least in exit polling. Exit polling gave 52/48 Kerry, actual results with 50% in is 53/46 Bush. If this holds up, keep in mind exit polling in Ohio was 52/48 Kerry, WI I think they said 53/46.

[BishopMVP]

Dola...it appears results are coming in from Bunning strongholds and he's now come back to basically a dead heat in the Kentucky Senate race with about 80% in. Hopefully this stops soon so we have 1 less crazy guy in the Senate.

[SirFozzie]

FL is a bit wonky still, the Heavy Dem areas still aren't in I think

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

FL is a bit wonky still, the Heavy Dem areas still aren't in I think

They are just starting to report, and with every count full percentage points drop of Bush (just like in 2000, where Bush had big leads untill the large Dem counties were reported).

[Buccaneer]

At what point do we start hearing about alleged voting fraud and abuse and bad ballots?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

At what point do we start hearing about alleged voting fraud and abuse and bad ballots?

Started this morning.

[Stevedubbya]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

At what point do we start hearing about alleged voting fraud and abuse and bad ballots?

I heard about it before i went to work today, as Ohio voting is already shaping up to be extremely shady.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

They are just starting to report, and with every count full percentage points drop of Bush (just like in 2000, where Bush had big leads untill the large Dem counties were reported).

Just like in 2000, I don't think we will know tonight.

[cthomer5000]

Pretty interesting so far, but nothing shocking yet. I was also very confident Kerry would easily take New Jersey, and the quick call indicates that it isn't very close.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Stevedubbya

I heard about it before i went to work today, as Ohio voting is already shaping up to be extremely shady.

That was the state I had predicted that we will have a FL 2000-like controversy.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Just like in 2000, I don't think we will know tonight.

Probably not.