Official 2016 MLB season thread

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Keep the games close and dramatic so every pitch is important. Sponsors dont like a bunch of 9-1 games.

Chemtrails are poisoning the atmosphere. Global warming is a hoax and the entire scientific community has been paid off to push an agenda. GMOs are harmful to people and the environment, despite hundreds of peer reviewed studies saying the opposite, and you're a Monsanto shill if you disagree. Vaccines cause autism and Big Pharma is hiding the evidence.

That's what your argument sounds like.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

As recently as September 23 the high in NYC was 86 with a low that night of 73. The temp at 6pm was 79. We're talking about a full 10°+ difference in temperature. September in NYC had 18 of the first 23 days over 80, with only 2 of those nights having an overnight (12-6am) low that was lower than the starting temp last night.

This happens every year. Temperatures drop and so do home runs. There's no conspiracy. There aren't different baseballs being used. Last night was two great starting pitchers in cooler weather that makes hitting HR more difficult.

You are wrong because I remember a game when it was 35 degrees in April that there was 5 home runs hit in Chicago. That is how stupid your arguments are. Cherry pick from small sample sizes much?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Chemtrails are poisoning the atmosphere. Global warming is a hoax and the entire scientific community has been paid off to push an agenda. GMOs are harmful to people and the environment, despite hundreds of peer reviewed studies saying the opposite, and you're a Monsanto shill if you disagree. Vaccines cause autism and Big Pharma is hiding the evidence.

That's what your argument sounds like.

Its not some big conspiracy that I care all that much about. More of what the fuck is going on. Why are Rangers/Blue Jay games being played in a dome stadium so low scoring in the post season. Why the hell does Marcus Stroman turn into a great pitcher during the post season. Why is it the pitchers that seem to over perform more often than the hitters. Not all fucking post season games are effected by weather so stop with the god damn weather rant about some stupid shit Ive known about far longer than you.

Do something productive and look at the totals from all of the games over the past 20 years from the postseason where weather hasnt changed all that much from the regular season. You will then understand. Check on how many more unders than overs there are in the postseason. I dont even think the books have an explanation because they dont really adjust for it.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You are wrong because I remember a game when it was 35 degrees in April that there was 5 home runs hit in Chicago. That is how stupid your arguments are. Cherry pick from small sample sizes much?

Let's assume your idea is true and MLB is trying to suppress HRs, and scores, to keep playoff games close.

In 2015 there were 36 playoff games with 13 decided by 4 runs or more (too big a deficit for a save).

In 2014 there were 32 playoff games with 8 decided by 4 runs or more.

In 2013 there were 38 playoff games with 12 decided by 4 runs or more.

In 2012 there were 37 playoff games with 13 decided by 4 runs or more.

If the goal is to keep games close for sponsors, they're failing at over a 30% rate in recent years.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Do something productive and look at the totals from all of the games over the past 20 years from the postseason where weather hasnt changed all that much from the regular season. You will then understand. Check on how many more unders than overs there are in the postseason. I dont even think the books have an explanation because they dont really adjust for it.

Given that there is already a reasonable explanation for any decrease in scoring in the post-season (cooler weather, more innings pitched by the best pitchers on a team due to the schedules), the onus is on you to show that post-season hitting is dramatically reduced beyond what the above explanations would account for.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Given that there is already a reasonable explanation for any decrease in scoring in the post-season (cooler weather, more innings pitched by the best pitchers on a team due to the schedules), the onus is on you to show that post-season hitting is dramatically reduced beyond what the above explanations would account for.

I disagree as I am not the one arguing something that most baseball fans have known since the mid-90s(weather effects). I was asking for something you guys werent ready for I guess. Fangraphs hasnt done the legwork for you yet. I was asking for opinions but got nothing so its time to move on.

It would be reasonable IF all post season games played had considerably different weather than the regular season. The weather explanation doesnt work when runs drop from 2-3 runs a game and the weather drops 5 degrees. Too many variables at this point to dig deeper.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I disagree as I am not the one arguing something that most baseball fans have known since the mid-90s(weather effects). I was asking for something you guys werent ready for I guess. Fangraphs hasnt done the legwork for you yet. I was asking for opinions but got nothing so its time to move on.

It would be reasonable IF all post season games played had considerably different weather than the regular season. The weather explanation doesnt work when runs drop from 2-3 runs a game and the weather drops 5 degrees.

Yep, you're the baseball equivalent of a conspiracy nut. You've been given reasonable explanations, with empirical support, and essentially stuck your fingers in your ears and said "nuh-uh." You made the assertion that different baseballs are used in the playoffs. Provide anything that resembles evidence of that.

Here's a study of 2005-2006 showing the effects of colder weather on both pitcher control and batted balls. Due to the colder, drier air, pitchers have less precise control which leads increases in K, BB, and HBP. HRs drop by 0.8% of batted balls once you get under 75°.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

Yep, you're the baseball equivalent of a conspiracy nut. You've been given reasonable explanations, with empirical support, and essentially stuck your fingers in your ears and said "nuh-uh." You made the assertion that different baseballs are used in the playoffs. Provide anything that resembles evidence of that.

Here's a study of 2005-2006 showing the effects of colder weather on both pitcher control and batted balls. Due to the colder, drier air, pitchers have less precise control which leads increases in K, BB, and HBP. HRs drop by 0.8% of batted balls once you get under 75°.

And congrats on becoming the first person Ive ever had to use the ignore feature on. Firstly in the NBA thread you actually try to argue that one of the best NBA players on planet earth isnt a huge upgrade over an aging injury prone center and you follow that up by insisting on using other peoples work to refute a claim that isnt even comparable to my argument. Time to move on from you. I will give you credit at least on the Durant argument you stuck to the point of what you were saying. Puffing your chest out about weather effects that have been around for 30+ years without responding to thinking outside the box of what other factors might be in play with lower scoring postseason games. Any chance that hitters are tensing up, any chance they could be using different balls, any chance the umps are calling a larger zone? Nothing else right? Just games in San Francisco become lower scoring during the post season because of the huge San Francisco cold surge that happens in October. We all know the dome effects in October to decrease exit velocity off the bat as well. Clearly, its just gotta be the weather. Peace!

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I disagree as I am not the one arguing something that most baseball fans have known since the mid-90s(weather effects). I was asking for something you guys werent ready for I guess. Fangraphs hasnt done the legwork for you yet. I was asking for opinions but got nothing so its time to move on.

It would be reasonable IF all post season games played had considerably different weather than the regular season. The weather explanation doesnt work when runs drop from 2-3 runs a game and the weather drops 5 degrees. Too many variables at this point to dig deeper.

Let's review:

- You said: "I swear MLB uses different balls for post season."
- I reminded you that the ball doesn't travel as far in colder weather (and BTW, it was 62 degrees at first pitch last night - that's quite a bit cooler than a typical Summer game in NYC)
- While you acknowledge that temperature has an effect on how far the ball travels, you continue to insist that there's more to it than that and make claims about how much less offense there is in the post-season

You are making claims that are beyond standard, known factors that would drive down offense in the post-season (colder weather, more innings pitched by better pitchers), thus the burden of proof is on you. Let's see the numbers on how much less offense there is in the post-season. Let's review the average temperature drop from June-August vs. October.

You're asking for opinions, and it seems that most of the opinions expressed so far are that there's nothing going on in the post-season that requires an explanation of doctored/different baseballs.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Better than average pitchers facing hitters in cooler weather, under increased stress & magnitude conditions where the actor seems to have an advantage over the reactor, with the pitching further improved by having narrowed rotations.

There's no need for a conspiracy to reduce the offense.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Let's review:

- You said: "I swear MLB uses different balls for post season."
- I reminded you that the ball doesn't travel as far in colder weather (and BTW, it was 62 degrees at first pitch last night - that's quite a bit cooler than a typical Summer game in NYC)
- While you acknowledge that temperature has an effect on how far the ball travels, you continue to insist that there's more to it than that and make claims about how much less offense there is in the post-season

You are making claims that are beyond standard, known factors that would drive down offense in the post-season (colder weather, more innings pitched by better pitchers), thus the burden of proof is on you. Let's see the numbers on how much less offense there is in the post-season. Let's review the average temperature drop from June-August vs. October.

You're asking for opinions, and it seems that most of the opinions expressed so far are that there's nothing going on in the post-season that requires an explanation of doctored/different baseballs.

No Thanks! Ill just keep investing year after year on the unders and padding my bankroll. No need to debate something that is working for whatever reason. Staying off this Texas/Toronto game. Should be high scoring.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Let's see the numbers on how much less offense there is in the post-season.

I'm going to do this one for him. Through 2013 it was about .75 runs less per team, per game, with the gap closing.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Better than average pitchers facing hitters in cooler weather, under increased stress & magnitude conditions where the actor seems to have an advantage over the reactor, with the pitching further improved by having narrowed rotations.

There's no need for a conspiracy to reduce the offense.

More of what I was looking for! Thank you!

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

More of what I was looking for! Thank you!

That's literally what you were already told, repeatedly.

[CrescentMoonie]

They're using the regular season baseballs in Texas. Has nothing to do with it being 89° right now.

[cartman]

I think something is wrong with Cole Hamels. He has had some really bad outings his last few times out.

[jbergey22]

Desmond is centerfield cost the Rangers there. Hamels not locating at all.

[HomerSimpson98]

That sucks for Desmond. He's probably been the single biggest reason why the Rangers are where they are.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by cartman

I think something is wrong with Cole Hamels. He has had some really bad outings his last few times out.

If I'm reading this right it seems like his velocity is still fine:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.p.../2016&s_type=2

[Jas_lov]

Tito brings Andrew Miller in the 5th inning. This is how you manage, Buck.

[jbergey22]

Indians leave the bases loaded with a chance to blow it open. Unfortunate bounce cost them a run that inning also.

[jbergey22]

Full day of baseball today. 4 games with the first one starting in a couple of hours.

70 degrees in Texas with a 13 mph wind blowing out to right center(wind blowing out doesnt effect much @ Rangers ballpark.

I think Texas gets the win today as Yu has had great success against Bautista and Donaldson and 7 of their 9 hitters are right handed. Rangers should be able to put up enough against Happ to get it done.

77 degrees in Cleveland with the wind blowing out to center at 9 mph.

Both pitchers will have to pitch deep into the game with the bullpens getting a lot of work last night. The only hitter that has had decent success against Price is Santana while a few of the Red Sox hitters seem to hit Kluber around pretty good. Id give the edge to the Red Sox to even it out. Probably be a low scoring game with the shadows of playing this game in the late afternoon.

70 degrees at Washington with the wind blowing in 8 mph from right center

With Scherzer vs Kershaw you wouldnt expect much offense. Hard to make a prediction on this one as 1 pitch or 1 defensive lapse will probably be the deciding factor. Hard to see more than 5 runs being scored. Also, late afternoon game with these two on the mound makes for tough hitting conditions.

54 degrees in Chicago with a 7 mph wind out to right.

Neither team has had much success against the other teams starter. The depth of the Cubs lineup is always important for post season however the Giants do have momentum. Posey always a threat against left handed pitching but in the end the Cubs will probably find a way into the Giants pen early enough and pick apart at the Giants shaky relief pitching.

[jbergey22]

The Rangers aces are letting them down. Yu gives up 4 home runs. Most in his career.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The Rangers aces are letting them down. Yu gives up 4 home runs. Most in his career.

I guess they didn't get the memo to use different baseballs.

[jbergey22]

That 65 degree weather in Texas must be giving the ball that extra lift.

[Logan]

That looked painful.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Logan

That looked painful.

Hard to believe he just walked off barely even shook up.

[RainMaker]

The Blue Jays are a scary team.

[CrescentMoonie]

At what point do teams stop using David Price in their playoff rotations?

[Galaril]

Jesus Christ Price 24 pitches and down 4-0

[CrescentMoonie]

Microcosm of Scherzer's season in the first two batters. K and HR.

[MrBug708]

Good start for the Dodgers

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Good start for the Dodgers

These great pitching matchups today havent really played out. Yu got rocked, Price got rocked, and now Sherz looks shaky.

[CrescentMoonie]

So...Scherzer and Kershaw not exactly having the pitching duel that was expected.

[MrBug708]

Kershaw hasn't been the pitcher he was before the injury, since he's come back. I'm also fully aware that Kershaw struggles in the postseason

[molson]

The game 1 and 2 Red Sox starters make about 8 times as much as the games 1 and 2 indians starters

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by molson

The game 1 and 2 Red Sox starters make about 8 times as much as the games 1 and 2 indians starters

And Benintendi/Bogaerts/JBJ/Mookie made $2 million combined. Young, pre-FA guys make less. It is known.

Hopefully they can come back, but there were enough holes all season none of this is surprising.

[kingfc22]

The Basket giveth today

[MrBug708]

Corey Seager probably is the most irreplaceable player in baseball. As he goes, so does the Dodgers. Probably a sub .500 team without him

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Blue Jays are looking a lot like the 2014 Royals. Got that big WC win and just carried that momentum and tore through the #1 seed.

[Johnny93g]

GO JAYS GO!!!!!

SO pumped, can't sleep!!

It's not lost on me how the series ended!!

[CrescentMoonie]

Gio Gonzalez is allergic to success.

[MrBug708]

Not that it's the reason they lost but this schedule the Dodgers have has been a travesty.

Kershaw went through his day before a game routine

[Butter]

Surprised Pedroia didn't get run there.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Butter

Surprised Pedroia didn't get run there.

Yep, playoff umps giving him some leeway because that was clearly a strike. Same thing at the end of game 1 - he didn't check his swing in time.

Will be forgotten if we don't score, but heck of a catch there by Mookie. Just an unbelievable all around athlete.

[SirFozzie]

There are many nicknames for David Ortiz. Big Papi, the Large Father, and many more. He was a major factor in the Sox winning three World Series ('04, '07 and '13).

I think he'll be remembered fondly for one other thing too. And that is a certain line after the 2013 Boston Marathon attacks, the day after Dzhokar Tsarnaev had been found hiding in a boat and arrested. "This is our FUCKING city and nobody's going to dictate our freedom. Stay Strong."

"Adios, y Gracias!"

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Not that it's the reason they lost but this schedule the Dodgers have has been a travesty.

Kershaw went through his day before a game routine

same as everyone else....

[kingfc22]

Way too many pitches for Bumgarner. At this rate, he's only going 6 innings.

[kingfc22]

Dola.

Maybe 2 innings...

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

same as everyone else....

??