2007-08 Baseball Offseason

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

LaTHUM I can't believe you said that.

I saw him at Reds Fest, came to the mic holding 2 beers and Todd Coffey basically dogged him, saying he's got a lot to learn and needs to grow up.

He also sounded like an idiot. Granted, he has great potential but didn't do anything wonderful last year... and I think I'm more on the fence with him than ever.

Hopefully I'm eating crow 6 months from now.

I've read that from a few people that he is not mature and needs to grow up. I forgot which ESPN writer it was but they mentioned it.

[korme]

Anyways, Jay Bruce baby!!!

[Jas_lov]

The best thing to happen this baseball offseason was Curt Schilling getting injured for hopefully the entire season.

[Jas_lov]

Andy Pettitte is trying to weasel is way out of the Congressional Hearing on Wednesday. Do you think he's afraid of implicating Clemens in front of the whole nation? What else does an admitted HGH user have to hide?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

Andy Pettitte is trying to weasel is way out of the Congressional Hearing on Wednesday. Do you think he's afraid of implicating Clemens in front of the whole nation? What else does an admitted HGH user have to hide?

From what I've read, he and Clemens are not friends and never have been. They've played up the media story just because the media loved the idea of it. I've heard he's quite pissed at Clemens for disputing the mitchell report and getting it to the point it is now, which has pulled Pettitte in front of Congress.

From that standpoint, I'd be pissed to. He's told his story to the media, didn't dispute what was in the Mitchell report, and they're still dragging him in front of congress to testify. So I don't think this is about fear of implicating clemens.

[Jas_lov]

Interesting. I always thought they were good friends. Plus he already did a private deposition, but I was hoping to see some fireworks.

[Jas_lov]

BREAKING NEWS: Andy Pettitte, Kurt Radomski, and Chuck Knoblauch have just been dropped from Wednesday's hearing. So it's just Clemens and McNamee 1 on 1.

[Lathum]

Weren't there like, 400 players named in the Mitchell report? Why is Clemens the only one being pulled up in front of congress?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Weren't there like, 400 players named in the Mitchell report? Why is Clemens the only one being pulled up in front of congress?

Because he's questioning the word of a gov't informant. If McNamee is lying, he goes to prison.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Because he's questioning the word of a gov't informant. If McNamee is lying, he goes to prison.

Understood, but if it is proven that McNamee is being honest what happens to all the guys in the report

[Jas_lov]

If McNamee is proven honest then Roger Clemens is guilty of perjury! I don't think anything would happen to the rest of them.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Understood, but if it is proven that McNamee is being honest what happens to all the guys in the report

Nothing, we all move on.

The players have nothing to lose at this point except perjury charges and their perceived reputations. Though as I said before in some FOFC thread, I'd be in favor of immediate HOF induction for any player who just said, "ya, I used steroids - everyone else was, and I didn't want to be at a disadvantage, and I was worried about my long-term financial security, so I did it".

But I'm convinced there's some kind of union line that discourages players from coming clean after the fact.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Understood, but if it is proven that McNamee is being honest what happens to all the guys in the report

Since Clemens is the only one fighting what was said in the report and chose on his own to speak with gov't agents and to congress, then he can be found guilty of perjury. No one else is denying anything and the Mitchell report was never meant to be a criminal investigation, so nothing will happen to them. Clemens has brought this entirely upon himself.

If we look at things from Clemens' point of view, fighting it makes a little bit of sense. He's trying to protect his image, his place in history, and his hall of fame chances. Worst case senario for him in fighting this is a couple counts of perjury and a light punishment (and that is worst case).

For McNamee, its much worse. He is looking at a long prison sentence if any of this is untrue. He's also a former NY City Police Officer, so he definitley knows the punishment involved here.

So basically, I see this is as a roll of the dice by Clemens. While the chance of him clearing his name is rather small, he probably figures its worth it considering the slim chance that he would actually get a prison sentence out of this whole thing.

[korme]

There's no way Clemens could get jail-time for perjury? That seems like a big deal, to lie in court.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

NOOO! Don't give up Bailey for Blanton. Bailey will likely be a one or two in a couple of years and Blanton will be at best a .500 pitcher in GABP.

Likely is such a bad word to use when referring to pitching prospects. I just traded my 2005 Baseball Prospectus in to half price books a couple of days ago and it has one of the most scary (depressing? damning? wrong?) things ever in it.

"With apologies to Jon Landau, we have seen the future of pitching, and his name is Zack Greinke…In the last 70 years, only three pitchers as young as Grienke walked fewer than 2.1 men per 9 innings. Two of them were Bert Blyleven and Bret Saberhagen…He has excellent mechanics, has never thrown 110 pitches in a game, and since he rarely throws at maximum velocity, he’s about as low an injury risk as any young pitcher in the game…His profile is so unique that trying to project his future is a fool’s errand."

Even more is that PECOTA gave him a 0% collapse rate. How's that looking now? Sure, Homer Bailey isn't Zack. But the point is, nothing with pitching prospects is likely. Go against TNSTAAPP at your own peril.

SI

[Atocep]

I didn't say there's no chance, I was saying that when Clemens started this whole thing the chances of him going to prison for anything was small and, because of that, he probably figured it was worth a shot at clearing his name.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Likely is such a bad word to use when referring to pitching prospects. I just traded my 2005 Baseball Prospectus in to half price books a couple of days ago and it has one of the most scary (depressing? damning? wrong?) things ever in it.

"With apologies to Jon Landau, we have seen the future of pitching, and his name is Zack Greinke…In the last 70 years, only three pitchers as young as Grienke walked fewer than 2.1 men per 9 innings. Two of them were Bert Blyleven and Bret Saberhagen…He has excellent mechanics, has never thrown 110 pitches in a game, and since he rarely throws at maximum velocity, he’s about as low an injury risk as any young pitcher in the game…His profile is so unique that trying to project his future is a fool’s errand."

Even more is that PECOTA gave him a 0% collapse rate. How's that looking now? Sure, Homer Bailey isn't Zack. But the point is, nothing with pitching prospects is likely. Go against TNSTAAPP at your own peril.

SI

Fyi, I still think Grienke will still turn out to be a pretty damn good pitcher - mental issues are significantly harder to diagnose.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Fyi, I still think Grienke will still turn out to be a pretty damn good pitcher - mental issues are significantly harder to diagnose.

He looks like he has gotten it back in the second half of last season out of the pen and he's going to be given every chance to start this season and the Royals need him to do just that. A top 3 of Meche, Bannister, and Greinke feels a lot better than most that we've had in a while coming into this season. That said, after those 3 it's a steep drop off.

SI

[Butter]

Shorty, I am in wait and see mode with this team... just like every Reds team since 1996. They are close to having the pitching to be able to compete at last, if Bailey can develop into a solid #3. He is close, but he got drilled a couple of times last year that gives me cause to worry.

Like always, we are relying too much on non-roster invitees, career minor-leaguers, and guys with fragility issues for my taste.

[cougarfreak]

Arod on roids.............this could get interesting.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23118901/

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Arod on roids.............this could get interesting.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23118901/

No. First of all, John Rocker is probably the least reliable source in the entire world. Second of all, he never says A-Rod actually did steroids or that he saw him use steroids. He just said that they were instructed by Texas Management on how to use steroids. So basically this will probably just blow over considering the source.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Arod on roids.............this could get interesting.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23118901/

While A-Rod will get the headlines, this is more interesting piece to me:

Rocker said that doctors from management and the players’ association, following a spring training talk with the Texas Rangers about steroids and other topics, pulled himself, A-Rod, Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez aside. Rocker was with the Rangers in 2002.

“Looks guys, if you take one kind of steroid, you don’t triple stack them and take them 10 months out of the year like Lyle Alzado did,” Rocker said the doctors told them. “If you do it responsibly, it’s not going to hurt you.”

If doctors on the payroll of MLB were telling players how to "safely use" steroids, that's a huge deal. This might be the death nail for Selig if this gets exposed any more.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

No. First of all, John Rocker is probably the least reliable source in the entire world. Second of all, he never says A-Rod actually did steroids or that he saw him use steroids. He just said that they were instructed by Texas Management on how to use steroids. So basically this will probably just blow over considering the source.

If anything, Rocker is TOO honest with his opinions. IMO.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by Arles

If doctors on the payroll of MLB were telling players how to "safely use" steroids, that's a huge deal. This might be the death nail for Selig if this gets exposed any more.

I think we have to consider the source and wait for more info before jumping to these kinds of conclusions.

[Logan]

John Rocker is the only person I would never believe when it comes to steroid talk. Yes, even lower than Canseco.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

He looks like he has gotten it back in the second half of last season out of the pen and he's going to be given every chance to start this season and the Royals need him to do just that. A top 3 of Meche, Bannister, and Greinke feels a lot better than most that we've had in a while coming into this season. That said, after those 3 it's a steep drop off.

SI

KC has some options at least. Here's an article detailing the spring training roster for KC. Looks like Tomko, Nomo, Hochaver, Davies, and Hudson are the short list competing for the last two spots in the rotation.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/485779.html

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

No. First of all, John Rocker is probably the least reliable source in the entire world. Second of all, he never says A-Rod actually did steroids or that he saw him use steroids. He just said that they were instructed by Texas Management on how to use steroids. So basically this will probably just blow over considering the source.

While acknowledging that the source in this case is highly suspect, I think if we've learned anything in the last few years with regard to performance enhancers and baseball, it's that everyone is a candidate to have used.

The allegation about the team doctors is pretty explosive stuff - if there's any kind of corroboration that this happened, this would be huge news and a major blow to MLB. That said, Rocker has very little credibility with me.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

KC has some options at least. Here's an article detailing the spring training roster for KC. Looks like Tomko, Nomo, Hochaver, Davies, and Hudson are the short list competing for the last two spots in the rotation.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/485779.html

I stand by my previous statement

Tomko is a serviceable #5... maybe. And I'd have been happier a couple of years ago. Hudson is intriguing if he can come back from injury. Hochevar is still way too green and they're rushing him. Nomo is probably done. Davies, I think he needs more time in AAA, too. Tho he had some decent starts last year but he had some complete dogs, too.

SI

[korme]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Shorty, I am in wait and see mode with this team... just like every Reds team since 1996. They are close to having the pitching to be able to compete at last, if Bailey can develop into a solid #3. He is close, but he got drilled a couple of times last year that gives me cause to worry.

Like always, we are relying too much on non-roster invitees, career minor-leaguers, and guys with fragility issues for my taste.

Wholeheartedly disagree with your last sentence.

Our lineup consists of all established players plus two rookies, both that are in Baseball America's Top 50 prospects (with of Bruce being #1 and the Player of the Year in the Minors). If Bruce doesn't earn the starting job, it'll go to Hopper, who has proven himself to be a .300 hitter the past two seasons.

Off the bench with Hopper would be Kep, Hatte, and Valentin or Ross... So any non-roster invitee or career minor leaguer might be our 25th guy. I wouldn't call that relying.


Even our starting pitching is a bit shored up, though I'm not calling it great by any stretch of the imagination. But we've made moves to strengthen the 'pen and if we finally have our first good closer since Jeff Shaw in Fran Cordero, I am happy.

Of course we could start the year out in 1st for the first month like always then desperately hang on for a half a year before plummeting. I shouldn't be this enthusiastic in Feb.




Also, props to MLB.com's shop. I customized a Reds jersey for my brother for xmas (Nuxhall 39) and figured for $100 it'd be decent - print text and number. But no, it's stitched and looks great. I'm jealous I didn't get one for myself.

[johnnyshaka]

Guys with two first names are suspect in my book.

[korme]

Nolan Ryan!

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by Logan

John Rocker is the only person I would never believe when it comes to steroid talk. Yes, even lower than Canseco.

Lower than Canseco? To date, he's pretty much the only former player that has told the truth. Hasn't practically everything he said about steroids been proven correct? IMO, he's the most credible former player out there at this point by a wide margin.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Lower than Canseco? To date, he's pretty much the only former player that has told the truth. Hasn't practically everything he said about steroids been proven correct? IMO, he's the most credible former player out there at this point by a wide margin.

I worded that terribly...I meant what you wrote, basically also saying that as unreliable as I thought Canseco was back then, Rocker was much more so.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Likely is such a bad word to use when referring to pitching prospects. I just traded my 2005 Baseball Prospectus in to half price books a couple of days ago and it has one of the most scary (depressing? damning? wrong?) things ever in it.

"With apologies to Jon Landau, we have seen the future of pitching, and his name is Zack Greinke…In the last 70 years, only three pitchers as young as Grienke walked fewer than 2.1 men per 9 innings. Two of them were Bert Blyleven and Bret Saberhagen…He has excellent mechanics, has never thrown 110 pitches in a game, and since he rarely throws at maximum velocity, he’s about as low an injury risk as any young pitcher in the game…His profile is so unique that trying to project his future is a fool’s errand."

Even more is that PECOTA gave him a 0% collapse rate. How's that looking now? Sure, Homer Bailey isn't Zack. But the point is, nothing with pitching prospects is likely. Go against TNSTAAPP at your own peril.

SI

I get that, but I'd still say there's a better than 50% chance that Bailey turns out to be a 1 or 2 for the Reds. His AAA numbers are good and barring injury he should be very good.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Lower than Canseco? To date, he's pretty much the only former player that has told the truth. Hasn't practically everything he said about steroids been proven correct? IMO, he's the most credible former player out there at this point by a wide margin.

Can I infer then that you believe Roger Clemens over Brian McNamee?

According to McNamee, Clemens first raised the subject of steroids not long after McNamee saw Canseco and Clemens at the party. At the time, Canseco and Clemens were teammates on the Toronto Blue Jays, and McNamee was working for the team. Canseco says in his affidavit that Clemens was not at that party.

The first mention of Clemens' name in the Mitchell Report is on page 167. On the very next page comes McNamee's account of "a lunch party that Canseco hosted at his home in Miami."

"McNamee stated that, during this luncheon, he observed Clemens, Canseco, and another person he did not know meeting inside Canseco's house, although McNamee did not personally attend that meeting," the Mitchell Report says.

In his affidavit, Canseco said, "I specifically recall that Clemens did not come to the bar-b-que. I remember this because I was disappointed that he did not attend. I later learned that he had a golfing commitment that day and could not attend the party."

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_yl...v=ap&type=lgns

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I get that, but I'd still say there's a better than 50% chance that Bailey turns out to be a 1 or 2 for the Reds. His AAA numbers are good and barring injury he should be very good.

Bailey's AAA numbers were ok, but he really needs to cut down on his walks. Walking 32 in 67 innings is not a formula for success in the big leagues for a rookie.

[Jas_lov]

This just in: Andy Pettitte told Congress in a sworn affidavit that Roger Clemens talked about using HGH.

[bhlloy]

This is it for Clemens in the court of my personal opinion. I can believe that McNamee might be angling for better treatment by giving the powers that be Clemens, but I see absolutely no reason for a former friend and teammate like Pettite to lie. Clemens is toast, even if there is no evidence that he committed perjury his credibility is completely shot now.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

For those that aren't aware, Kauffman Stadium in KC is getting a $250 million overhaul, with some of the work already underway. The trademark fountains will still be in the outfield, but the old crown scoreboard in centerfield has been completely torn down and is currently being replaced by an all new scoreboard with an enormous HD screen. It's going to be hard to miss. Here's a video link showing the new scoreboard assembly..........

http://videos.kansascity.com/vmix_ho...dia?id=1710084

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I stand by my previous statement

Tomko is a serviceable #5... maybe. And I'd have been happier a couple of years ago. Hudson is intriguing if he can come back from injury. Hochevar is still way too green and they're rushing him. Nomo is probably done. Davies, I think he needs more time in AAA, too. Tho he had some decent starts last year but he had some complete dogs, too.

SI

FYI.....add one more starting pitcher option. Mike Maroth was signed by KC to a minor league contract.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a...0212078/&imw=Y

[ShawonDunston]

Just a quick warning to Cubs fans out there: Big Z has been number 2 in Pitcher Abuse Points for the last 4 year. Considering this year he will be 27 and is by most accounts is at his peak playing age in the major, given his early start of course, do not be surprised if his performance continues its decline this year. A serious arm injury is also an all too real probability as well. In my opinion I think we have seen the best that Big Z has already.

[dervack]

Originally Posted by ShawonDunston

Just a quick warning to Cubs fans out there: Big Z has been number 2 in Pitcher Abuse Points for the last 4 year. Considering this year he will be 27 and is by most accounts is at his peak playing age in the major, given his early start of course, do not be surprised if his performance continues its decline this year. A serious arm injury is also an all too real probability as well. In my opinion I think we have seen the best that Big Z has already.

I don't disagree, unfortunately. I think that they gave him a lot of money for how durable he has been and not how durable he will be in the future.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by ShawonDunston

Just a quick warning to Cubs fans out there: Big Z has been number 2 in Pitcher Abuse Points for the last 4 year. Considering this year he will be 27 and is by most accounts is at his peak playing age in the major, given his early start of course, do not be surprised if his performance continues its decline this year. A serious arm injury is also an all too real probability as well. In my opinion I think we have seen the best that Big Z has already.

Hey, don't you have a low and outside pitch in the dirt to swing at and strike out in a crucial situation rather than bringing up these horrible tidings?

(Sorry, thoes were always my memories of Dunston- he'd go 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, and then swing horribly at something low and away in the dirt. That and he was lucky that Mark Grace had a great glove at 1st but they worked well together.)

SI

[Ksyrup]

We need a quotes thread or something, because I fee like I'm depriving the non-baseball fans of this board the opportunity to read the following statement from M's pitcher Miguel Batista:

"He [Kenny G] played for me," Batista said. "It was my favorite song, 'Alone.' Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete."

[Ksyrup]

Has anyone started a spring training/regular season thread?

Just looking for a place to post a link to Joe Posnanski's excellent primer on SABR stats:

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008.../stats-i-like/