Official 2016 MLB season thread

[lungs]

Why the hell wouldn't Showalter use Britton?

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by lungs

Why the hell wouldn't Showalter use Britton?

I thought for sure he was unavailable. Just an awful decision to save him for a situation that never happened.

[jbergey22]

Saving the closer to get the bottom of the inning out once you take the lead. Difficult situation for the road manager. If he used him too early he is second guessed if he doesnt use him at all he is second guessed. The odds of it working out perfectly for the manager are slim.

I dont think I could have trusted Jimenez no matter how well he had been pitching however. For the majority of the past 4 seasons he has been awful.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Saving the closer to get the bottom of the inning out once you take the lead. Difficult situation for the road manager. If he used him too early he is second guessed if he doesnt use him at all he is second guessed. The odds of it working out perfectly for the manager are slim.

I'd use him after a runner got on in the 11th and the middle of the order coming up.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'd use him after a runner got on in the 11th and the middle of the order coming up.

The only problem with that is Donaldson absolutely crushes leftys. I know he is your best bullpen option but still had to be tough trying to validate bringing in a lefty to face Donaldson, E5, and Bautista.

[lungs]

I'd have used him at the latest in the 10th. Probably the 9th. Especially in an elimination game.

Leaving him sit was pure insanity.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by lungs

Why the hell wouldn't Showalter use Britton?

Yeah was wondering the same thing. I know it's hard to put yourself up for second guessing by using the closer early. But he absolutely should have gotten off the bench at some point.

[jbergey22]

Id have used him 1 batter before the game winning hit whenever that may be.

[stevew]

I thought Givens was dealing, kinda felt like the hook was early there.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The only problem with that is Donaldson absolutely crushes leftys. I know he is your best bullpen option but still had to be tough trying to validate bringing in a lefty to face Donaldson, E5, and Bautista.

Britton was better against righties than lefties this year.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Britton was better against righties than lefties this year.

And over his career(much larger sample he isnt). Really wasnt even my point. Putting any lefty out there against the trio of Donaldson, E5, and Bautista has to be difficult.

Could have should have would have I guess. Probably could have used him and still lost. Tough situation being a road manager in games like this. I dont question his decision to not use Britton I question his decision to use Ubaldo.

[Mota]

Tough choice. The Jays burned through all their relievers early. Thankfully they had Liriano who has really turned around his season after joining the Jays.

If the relievers had performed as expected, Baltimore would have eventually scored, Britton would have closed it and it's a different story.

That's why playoffs should be best of 7 series if you're truly trying to find the best team.

[Jas_lov]

The notion that you can't use your closer in a tie game on the road is antiquated and I'm surprised Buck fell into that conventional trap. Britton has a sub 1 ERA. You want him extending the game. No one would have criticized Buck had he used all his best relievers and then lost with a lesser reliever later in extra innings. Maybe the O's score 5 in the next inning, or maybe they still lose. The point is you want to ensure your best relievers pitch instead of losing with Ubaldo.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

The notion that you can't use your closer in a tie game on the road is antiquated and I'm surprised Buck fell into that conventional trap. Britton has a sub 1 ERA. You want him extending the game. No one would have criticized Buck had he used all his best relievers and then lost with a lesser reliever later in extra innings. Maybe the O's score 5 in the next inning, or maybe they still lose. The point is you want to ensure your best relievers pitch instead of losing with Ubaldo.

Yep. Look at Terry Francona in Cleveland - he uses his best reliever (Andrew Miller) whenever he's needed, even in the 6th inning if need be. Showalter screwed himself over big time by keeping Britton on the bench.

[tucker rocky]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

What an idiot fan throwing that water bottle at the Baltimore outfielder.

I was a beer can, with beer still in it.

I thought Toronto banned beer cans from the seating area, after last seasons postseason incident.

[tucker rocky]

Originally Posted by Mota

Tough choice. The Jays burned through all their relievers early. Thankfully they had Liriano who has really turned around his season after joining the Jays.

If the relievers had performed as expected, Baltimore would have eventually scored, Britton would have closed it and it's a different story.

That's why playoffs should be best of 7 series if you're truly trying to find the best team.

Why should the wild card be 7 games?
1 and done is fine.
Longer wild card series would put the 2 teams on bye in each league, in a stagnant mode.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Mota

Tough choice. The Jays burned through all their relievers early. Thankfully they had Liriano who has really turned around his season after joining the Jays.

If the relievers had performed as expected, Baltimore would have eventually scored, Britton would have closed it and it's a different story.

That's why playoffs should be best of 7 series if you're truly trying to find the best team.

Or no wild card since they couldn't win their division.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

Why should the wild card be 7 games?
1 and done is fine.
Longer wild card series would put the 2 teams on bye in each league, in a stagnant mode.

Not saying the wild card should be best of 7, but if you're trying to truly find the best team, that's the only way. I would say the division series should definitely be best of 7. The wild card really is a gimmick game though, so that would be good enough.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by Mota

Not saying the wild card should be best of 7, but if you're trying to truly find the best team, that's the only way. I would say the division series should definitely be best of 7. The wild card really is a gimmick game though, so that would be good enough.

Why not best of 9? Or 11? 7 games is just as arbitrary as 1 game. If anything, it should be best of 3 at a single site since that's how regular season series work.

[rowech]

Or realize that the reason they play so many regular season games is to make sure that the best teams make the playoffs and letting in four teams for baseball is much better than ten.

The baseball post-season has nice drama but I rarely believe the best team wins anymore.

[Jas_lov]

Expand or contract 2 teams, scrap interleague, play a balanced schedule within each league and just have the top team in each league go to the World Series. That would determine the best team. The 2009 Yankees were the last team that won the WS that was clearly the best team.

[RainMaker]

I like the drama of the Wild Card game but I think it's unfair. The 2nd best team in the league could be forced to play in that game if they happen to be in a division with the best team.

I'd rather the regular season be shortened to 146 games. Expand the Wild Card to a 3 game series (all 3 played at team with best records park). Expand the NLDS to 7 games. This also allows the league to shorten the season by a week or two so WS games aren't being played in November in cities like Chicago and New York.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Mota

Not saying the wild card should be best of 7, but if you're trying to truly find the best team, that's the only way. I would say the division series should definitely be best of 7. The wild card really is a gimmick game though, so that would be good enough.

If the only goal was to find the best team, the only way to do that is is get rid of the playoffs and give the championship to the team that had the best record over the entire season.

I like the 1 game wild card because it was the first playoff change in U.S. team sports that actually made the regular season a little more important. You win your division, you're in the real playoffs, if you get close, you have a 2nd coin-flip chance. And ya, there's definitely some luck of the draw in terms of how strong your division is, but that's something we've accepted in U.S. sports for a long time - splitting leagues into divisions to give the leagues a little more structure, make them easier to follow, and to try to promote rivalries within the division. It annoys me that the NBA has the division setup, but it doesn't really matter when it comes to playoff seedings. The NBA should just get rid of divisions and rank teams in the conference 1-8 if that's how they're going to do it. For baseball though, the divisions have some character, and a little history, so I think it works from a storyline/narrative/entertainment perspective that the best of Sox-Yankees-Blue Jays-Orioles-Rays is guaranteed to be in the real playoffs, every year. The NFL also highly rewards division championships, and those divisions also have some character and history behind them.

[kingfc22]

Damn. Hell of a play by Granderson

[jbergey22]

I swear MLB uses different balls for post season. That ball was out of here during the regular season. Seemed like he squared up and hit it perfectly. It has also strikes me as odd that it seems pitchers step up their game in the post season more so than the hitters. With all of the pressure on the pitchers during these games I would think their performance would drop a bit rather than get batters.

[dawgfan]

Colder weather = ball doesn't travel as far.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Colder weather = ball doesn't travel as far.

It was 70 degrees earlier. Not like it was 45 degrees.

[kingfc22]

WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kingfc22]

Buck Showalter feeling a bit better now.

[MrBug708]

Fucking Giants

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

It was 70 degrees earlier. Not like it was 45 degrees.

And it was in the 90s and above when the bulk of the HRs happened this year. Announcers talk about it every year as the weather cools back down. This isn't new.

[jbergey22]

About the only pitch Gillespie has any success against is a sinking fastball.

[MrBug708]

Even year magic

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

And it was in the 90s and above when the bulk of the HRs happened this year. Announcers talk about it every year as the weather cools back down. This isn't new.

Where the hell are you from? The Equator?

Most Northern US climates are 75-85 most of the summer. The West Coast games usually play in the mid 60s at night. I suppose Arlington and Arizona can heat up at times but Arizona domes it up when it gets too hot and Arlington has some gusty wind keeping temps down a bit. Miami is in a dome as well so probably Atlanta is the only place other than Arizona or Arlington that can get above the 90 degree mark consistently.

Announcers dont need to talk about it. Everyone knows the ball doesnt travel as well in the cold. Compare post season games to games in April(when it is colder) and you will see post season games are generally lower scoring. The 70 degree weather tonight was very little change from the normal Shea Stadium weather.

[kingfc22]

MadBum. Incredible

[jbergey22]

1 more inning and they could have gotten into the Giants shaky bullpen.

[CrescentMoonie]

Collins may want to rethink the approach of swinging early in the count against Bumgarner. Work the count, drive up the pitch count, and get him out of there regardless of how well he's pitching so you can get a shot at that bullpen. Can't believe that wasn't the gameplan.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Where the hell are you from? The Equator?

Most Northern US climates are 75-85 most of the summer. The West Coast games usually play in the mid 60s at night. I suppose Arlington and Arizona can heat up at times but Arizona domes it up when it gets too hot and Arlington has some gusty wind keeping temps down a bit. Miami is in a dome as well so probably Atlanta is the only place other than Arizona or Arlington that can get above the 90 degree mark consistently.

Announcers dont need to talk about it. Everyone knows the ball doesnt travel as well in the cold. Compare post season games to games in April(when it is colder) and you will see post season games are generally lower scoring. The 70 degree weather tonight was very little change from the normal Shea Stadium weather.

You may be overstating the coolness a bit. Fairly detailed info from this article covering a decade or more for a number of stadiums.

2nd hottest ballpark? Camden Yards, which I sure wouldn't have guessed. Over half the games there (1992-2013) were at 90 degrees or more. (Nationals only around 1/4th). Texas, Atlanta, KC, St Louis, even San Diego all play a significant number at that temp or more.

Overall, roughly 1/3rd of games are played at temps of 80 or more.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Where the hell are you from? The Equator?

Most Northern US climates are 75-85 most of the summer.

22 days of 90+ in DC in August alone this year. 45 in July and August combined, breaking the record from 1988.

NYC had 22 days over 90 this summer.

8pm temp in NYC was 66 today, temp at the time of the homer was 61. Even if you're going by the 75-85 norm, 10-15° makes a significant difference in how far a ball is going to travel, especially with no appreciable wind.

[jbergey22]

I guess each person has their own numbers.

Summer Temperature Averages for Each USA State - Current Results

I check daily baseball data daily to get detailed weather forecasts before my wagers, draftkings, fanduel and rarely do I see these extreme weather variances that I am looking for(90+ degree weather, 15+ mph winds). In Wrigley with the wind blowing to the South at 10+ mph is usually means about 3-4 more runs on average.

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

Maybe the DBD website is getting incorrect info. Going to have a few 90+ days in each city but I didnt see a lot of 90+ weather when the games were actually played.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

You may be overstating the coolness a bit. Fairly detailed info from this article covering a decade or more for a number of stadiums.

2nd hottest ballpark? Camden Yards, which I sure wouldn't have guessed. Over half the games there (1992-2013) were at 90 degrees or more. (Nationals only around 1/4th). Texas, Atlanta, KC, St Louis, even San Diego all play a significant number at that temp or more.

Overall, roughly 1/3rd of games are played at temps of 80 or more.

Yes would have never guess Camden Yards being #2 but the 1/3 of 80+ Id believe. Something about Maryland apparently.

1/3 of 80 plus however is a far cry from "And it was in the 90s and above when the bulk of the HRs happened this year"

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie

8pm temp in NYC was 66 today, temp at the time of the homer was 61. Even if you're going by the 75-85 norm, 10-15° makes a significant difference in how far a ball is going to travel, especially with no appreciable wind.

“Suppose the average MLB game-time temperature were 10F higher (than 72.7F). Fly balls on a typical home run trajectory would travel about 2.5 ft farther (about 0.6%), leading to 6% more home runs. As a more dramatic example, consider games played at the two extreme temperatures of MLB, 30F and 110F. The home run probability would be about 50% greater at the high end (110F) than at the low end (30F). This result simply confirms what everyone already qualitatively knows: balls carry better at higher temperatures, leading to more home runs.”

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Buck Showalter feeling a bit better now.

This X 1000. Wonder if all the next day managers will grip about Collins using his closer in a tie game?

[Logan]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

This X 1000. Wonder if all the next day managers will grip about Collins using his closer in a tie game?

Why would they? He used his best available reliever at the right time. Familia has unbelievable stuff but when he leaves balls up, he gets beat. Happened during the WS last year, happened during one particular stretch around the midway point this season, happened last night. If he keeps the ball down he doesn't give up runs, and he's had the biggest issue with that during these two playoff seasons.

How confident was I that this was going to happen? I had to be in Boston yesterday and landed around 9p last night. Saw a few innings on the plane. Got home and needed to take care of a few things before firing up the DVR. When I got to the 9th,I fast forwarded through the inning. Just watched the score graphic pop from 0 to 3 and I didn't even bat an eye.

Congrats to the Giants fans.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

It was 70 degrees earlier. Not like it was 45 degrees.

70 is still cooler than 90+.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

This X 1000. Wonder if all the next day managers will grip about Collins using his closer in a tie game?

Interestingly enough, just about no one has criticized Collins for using Familia in that situation.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

70 is still cooler than 90+.

You made it sound like the weather killed the ball Belt hit because it gets so cold in the post season. Weather conditions at this point are comparable to most of the Mets games this season without the slight wind out to right center.

How many 0-0 after 8 inning games were the Mets involved in this year? IMO MLB uses different balls in the post season. Every single year we see unusually low scoring games in the postseason where weather effects are minimal(games on the West Coast and games in domes). There is something more going on than just weather in keeping scores down.

I think it was the 2001 postseason when there was a lot of very low scoring games where it became a talk show topics about needing to create more entertainment. The following year(Angels vs Giants world series matchup) the post season was extremely high scoring almost like watching a bunch of games at Coors Field. I would not put it past MLB to change the balls up during postseason play. I have no proof other than certain matchups(Blue Jays vs Rangers) becoming a game with very little hitting at a common rate in the post season.

FYI if you bet on baseball. You kill it in the postseason if you just take unders every game.

Today's Rangers/Blue Jays game in Arlington is an optimal game for a lot of runs so we shall see what happens. 90 degree weather and the opposite wind effect in Arlington where if it is blowing in it causes wind tunnel out to right center field. Two of the better offenses in baseball. The total is 9 in which seems low to me.

[bhlloy]

Why on earth would MLB, an organization that values offense as something the fans want to see to the point they have a Home Run derby as the main thing they promote during the All-Star weekend, want to limit scoring during the postseason?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Why on earth would MLB, an organization that values offense as something the fans want to see to the point they have a Home Run derby as the main thing they promote during the All-Star weekend, want to limit scoring during the postseason?

Keep the games close and dramatic so every pitch is important. Sponsors dont like a bunch of 9-1 games.

[CrescentMoonie]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You made it sound like the weather killed the ball Belt hit because it gets so cold in the post season. Weather conditions at this point are comparable to most of the Mets games this season without the slight wind out to right center.

As recently as September 23 the high in NYC was 86 with a low that night of 73. The temp at 6pm was 79. We're talking about a full 10°+ difference in temperature. September in NYC had 18 of the first 23 days over 80, with only 2 of those nights having an overnight (12-6am) low that was lower than the starting temp last night.

This happens every year. Temperatures drop and so do home runs. There's no conspiracy. There aren't different baseballs being used. Last night was two great starting pitchers in cooler weather that makes hitting HR more difficult.