2008 Financials Thread

[Flasch186]

Today was a weird rally for me and flies in the face of my theory that we will begin to see $ strengthening over the next 3 months. If I we're still holding POT or any Ag name or commodity I wouldve sold into the strength so that means your rally should continue sir.

I also am doing well on Apple and luckily should it hit my target which is $200 I will be back at even for the year. That, IMO, is very good considering how far down I was after the debacle that was Dec-EO March.

Short cover?

[Flasch186]

so it seems the commodities trade is trying to fight back but I havnt changed my outlook on the next 3 months for the dollar or the trade itself.....so it should boom, right?

Talks are supposedly underway for Apple to open the Iphone up to Vodaphone's networks. That could be huge overseas. I see the stock at $200 but we may be in for a summer malaise market wide.

My friend Keith's stock AMD (He's fully invested in it) is making a nice fight back from getting hammered as of late. Good for him.

I would be selling commodities including ag into this strength so keep that in mind when you dive in fully and make a ton of $ playing the contra flasch.

[Flasch186]

well CSCO beat so it should at least be stable and not fall. AAPL continues to run and I think that that should continue. XLF is finally getting back to even for me and I think it could be a long term good play still. Ashley's FSLR remains in the green now but is extremely volatile.

NZ is still killing it and his commodities bull is continuing. I readily admit to being completely baffled by the trade and it seems every hour you hear/read something on opposite ends of the spectrum in regards to the $ v. commodities trade. If you short oil, you get killed if goldman's right about it superspiking up to 150-200 over the next 5 yrs. but if you go long oil and the $ strengthens oil must moderate, right?

I must avoid the sector entirely at this point as my brain is telling me to do exactly the opposite of what makes $ right in line with the results of contra-flasch. argh!!

[Flasch186]

May 7

jeez, one thing mentioned this morning that I hadnt thought about is if we have a decent hurricane season and some of those canes end up in the gulf we could see another serious spike in oil prices that would counter any strength in the dollar. Goldman Sachs stated that they see oil jumping to 150/barrell and then more. Crazy for us at the pump to think what we'll see.

Decent numbers this morning for the economy in that it seems that workers are willing to work longer hours for no more money. Bad for main street good for wall street. Productivity up....real wages down.

My brain is so confused. Is this the hardest economic times to understand? I didnt pay any attention when I was a kid in the 80's but things seem so wacky on the whole. Cycles are happening super fast, dollar has completely reversed from where it's been in a long long time, oil has jumped 100% in 6 months, some ag names have jumped 300% in a year, we're seeing a housing crisis and financial crisis the likes of which have never been seen before in tandem....I mean the list goes on and on of new and strange things and I, for one, am very confused which is why I only truly feel comfortable in my holdings as of late due to strength in balance sheets (outside of the XLF which is an ETF so diversified amongst the sector). However this comfort zone is costing me some opportunity gains in the momentum sectors that people like NZ have mastered. One talking head yesterday said oil is the easiest play ever and just go long it...but everything I've heard is that to follow the flock gets you killed. ugh....another one of those days for me especially as we enter the doldrums of summer, real estate wise (in my personal life) so Ill even have more time to watch, absorb, and drown in too much information.

[Flasch186]

no doubt about it that I was wrong that rates would tick higher (although they have in mortgage rates) faster than normal and that the commodities trade would weaken. Hopefully my two week rule will keep me from making wrong calls in short term swings. It just reiterates that I am usually wrong......

me typing this might signal the end, NS

it seems I just recently entered green territory YTD on my portfolio. A long hard road and one that should bounce around in a range that it seems we've hit but Im hoping the AAPL 3G boosts me a bit. A massive pullback in commodities or rotation would be helpful too..... unreal that Ive fought back so hard this year, however that doesnt count the ~$3K loss for last year. Sirius Sattelite Radio (SIRI) was a killer for me along with Quantas (PWR).

[Flasch186]

May 12

I missed most of the day due to training but see that the market is rallying on a strengthening dollar and it seems POT, for NZ, continues to run in spite of this. Apple is way up today (~3%) even though RIMM unveiled it's new Blackberry and has it's addicts drooling. Oil continues to be nasty on its tear hitting 126 a barrel. A short here would be interesting in trying to call the top of this, IMO, bubble but DUG, unfortunately also ties in Nat gas so it's not a clean play. Hopefully we finish the day strong to the end. My friend sold his shares of AMD making a small profit after riding it's negative play for about 6 mos.

[NoSkillz]

Sorry, I haven't been around here lately.

Things are very boring for me right now - I'm fully invested and haven't made a trade at all in May. This after making 22 in April.

I obviously crave the action!

There is no real reason for me to sell anything right now, as the market looks to still have some legs even though we've hit a TSX lifetime high today.

My agriculture holdings continue to creep back up and tech continues to roll along. My Apple shares have appreciated well over $40/share in the past month and I'll look to sell in the mid-190s or around $200. My energy trust is up over 10% since I purchased my shares on April 16th, a nice one-month return...and that's without a dividend payment yet!

Last week was another profitable one for me:

Week Ending May 9th
TSX Index: +1.69%
NoSkillz: +2.79%

If I had any cash, it would be going to Research in Motion but it's only worth it if you can get in around $130-$133. I still think gold stocks are a very solid long-term buy and it's priced right at the moment (ie: AEM - TSX).

[MikeVic]

So HP is close to buying EDS for $12 billion? EDS' stock shot up 27% yesterday. It caught my attention because EDS has a dev shop here in the city that seems to employ a good number of people.

[Fidatelo]

I worked for EDS for 5 years after coming out of school. This sale officially ends my hopes of breaking even on the stocks I bought with my 'employee discount' back between '99-01. Guess I better try to figure out how I get my 10 cents on the dollar at least...

[Fidatelo]

Dola...

I may as well add that I'd actually recently been considering moving back to EDS. I still know many people there, and have quite a good relationship with the current head of software development in Winnipeg. I almost took a job there a year ago but eventually decided to remain where I am, but I was once again considering making a move. As recently as friday I had a lunch meeting with him about what roles I might get to play and how I could grow my career, etc. I was waiting for some information from a former co-worker on how the technical architect career path was laid out.

Anyways, I'm thinking this merger kills my interest. I don't want to be one of the new kids on the block when HP takes over and starts the inevitable re-org. I had a lot of reservations anyways (mostly due to EDS being, well, EDS).

[Kodos]

Bump. I enjoyed following this thread. We need more posts!

[MikeVic]

Oh yeah, what happened!

[Flasch186]

Well it became burdensome when I felt like it was just me & noskillz keeping it going. I havnt done much of anything since this paused. I still own apple, and csco, and xlf, my wife owns fslr still, and Ive been toying with an average in of Blockbuster as theyve started to dabble with bringing back latefees AND Im slowly coming around to thinking that the Circuit City purchase could be a good thing for the company. Anyways, today was brutal and Im wondering if things wont get really ugly this summer. Im toying with the idea of selling over 50% of my holdings on the next up day....

I can tell you Noskillz has done GREAT!

[NoSkillz]

Yeah, same thing for me. It just was Flasch and myself really doing the talking, with a bit of Marc Vaughan and some other questions. Really wasn't going in the direction I thought it was going to. I felt like I was just talking too much

I literally didn't make a trade in May. Just sat on the sidelines and waited for my agricultural holdings to explode, which they did this past week. I sold off all of my Potash around 220/share, making about 22/share on average there. I also sold off all of my Agrium shares and half of my holdings in Apple when the US dollar strengthened against the loonie earlier this week.

The energy trust I mentioned a month or two back (Baytex Energy Trust) is up over 30% since I purchased it in late April (including the two dividend payments I've received)

Simply put, I'm having a career-year with my investments (+23% through first five months of '08) and only hope it continues.