2007-08 Baseball Offseason

[CraigSca]

Heck, I'd be more than happy to keep Bedard, if they could, in fact, keep him. He's improved every year and was lights-out in his last 14 starts. He's one of the few pitchers (and first Oriole I can think of in a good, long time) where I've watched pitch and said to myself, "it's just not fair to the batters."

[JS19]

According to CBS, USA TODAY is reporting the Mets got Santana, pending physical and contract extension.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseb...terstitialskip

[Logan]

And supposedly, no Fernando Martinez in the deal.

Jackpot.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Logan

And supposedly, no Fernando Martinez in the deal.

Jackpot.

Well, Bill Smith certainly succeeded in giving Santana away. It looks like it would've been a much better idea to let him go as a free agent.

[Logan]

I think Mulvey will end up being a pretty good pitcher. Humber could turn out well now that he's further from TJ surgery. Guerra I know very little about, besides that he went from virtually unknown about 6 months ago to a supposed top prospect today. Gomez could be special. He's insanely fast (maybe faster than Reyes) but I don't know if he'll develop the power that some project for him.

[RedKingGold]

As a Phillies fan.

Fuck.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Logan

I think Mulvey will end up being a pretty good pitcher. Humber could turn out well now that he's further from TJ surgery. Guerra I know very little about, besides that he went from virtually unknown about 6 months ago to a supposed top prospect today. Gomez could be special. He's insanely fast (maybe faster than Reyes) but I don't know if he'll develop the power that some project for him.

Mulvey will almost certainly be good but basically lacks any upside. If he ever puts up an ERA significantly below 4 I would be surprised. You could say basically the same thing about Slowey who the Twins already have. I guess this makes Gomez the Twins opening day CF, even though he is obviously not ready. Given the Twins track record in developing hitting prospects, I'm not optimistic.

The last 2 pitchers and Guerra and Humber. Humber is a typical overhyped NY prospect who is easily the worst of the 4 included. Guerra needs to develop a decent 3rd pitch or he's headed to the bullpen. He's a few years away anyway, but a good arm.

Now we don't know, despite the rumors, what exactly was on the table from NYY or Boston, but no Martinez makes me shake my head here. I'd MUCH rather have Hughes, Melky and a scrub than this.

[Lathum]

This is just what we needed. A top line starter to go with the new ballpark. The pitching staff is rounding out nicely if Pedro can be healthy and Maine and Perez continue to make positive strides.

[ISiddiqui]

Alright! Minaya did something right!

[Lathum]

I think alot of it boiled down to the Twins not wanting to trade him to an AL team.

[SirFozzie]

Good on the Mets. Having Santana would have been awesome, but at least he's not on the enemy.

Now it frees up Coco Crisp for a trade.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Good on the Mets. Having Santana would have been awesome, but at least he's not on the enemy.

Now it frees up Coco Crisp for a trade.

Forget you and all you lame-bramed Boston fans.

[Atocep]

Wow, got Santana and kept Fernando Martinez.

I'm not a big Carlos Gomez fan nor a big fan of Humber. Mulvey has the potential to be a pretty decent pitcher, but nothing special. Guerra is a long way from the majors, but he has special talent. Legit #1 starter stuff.

I've said that I'm all for this if Minaya could somehow hold onto Martinez. Otherwise I'd rather pass and take a shot at him if he hits the free agent market.

I'm loving this deal.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Wow, got Santana and kept Fernando Martinez.

I'm not a big Carlos Gomez fan nor a big fan of Humber. Mulvey has the potential to be a pretty decent pitcher, but nothing special. Guerra is a long way from the majors, but he has special talent. Legit #1 starter stuff.

I've said that I'm all for this if Minaya could somehow hold onto Martinez. Otherwise I'd rather pass and take a shot at him if he hits the free agent market.

I'm loving this deal.

Meanwhile, Bill Bavasi wants to give away one of the top OF prospects in the game, one of the best lefty relievers in the game plus 2 mid-level pitching prospects for 2 years of Erik Bedard...

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Meanwhile, Bill Bavasi wants to give away one of the top OF prospects in the game, one of the best lefty relievers in the game plus 2 mid-level pitching prospects for 2 years of Erik Bedard...

I'm amazed that the Twins took this deal. Guerra and Gomez have the potential to make this a great deal for them, but Gomez's value is still based on projecting power that still hasn't shown up yet. Guerra is heading into his age 19 year and hasn't pitched above high-A yet and his strikeout rate was considerably lower last season (although he was young for the league).

Based soley on talent the Mets gave up less for Santana than the Dbacks did for Haren. However, the Mets are going to have to pay Santana $120-$140 million over 6-7 years.

With that said, this makes it much easier to forget the Milledge trade and I'm actually looking forward to the season starting now.

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Meanwhile, Bill Bavasi wants to give away one of the top OF prospects in the game, one of the best lefty relievers in the game plus 2 mid-level pitching prospects for 2 years of Erik Bedard...

I haven't been paying attention to the rumor mill recently...Is the OF prospect Adam Jones?

[Logan]

Yep, scroll up for more info.

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by Logan

Yep, scroll up for more info.

That's horrid. The Mariners could probably get a better pitcher than Bedard in a Jones deal, depending on who else they packaged him with.

[Mantle2600]

As an Indians fan I'm gonna miss Santana, he got outpitched about every game against us last year.

[MrBug708]

Hopefully the Mets gave the Twins their panties back

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Mantle2600

As an Indians fan I'm gonna miss Santana, he got outpitched about every game against us last year.

You have a short memory as well apparently. He dominated them the previous 5 years to the flukish 07 season.

[Mantle2600]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You have a short memory as well apparently. He dominated them the previous 5 years to the flukish 07 season.

Actually I was really joking, trust me I know.

[Arles]

Terrible deal for the Twins. The As got more for Haren, the Os for Bedard (Seattle?) and the two Sox-yanks deals would have been more talent. This is what happens when you overplay your hand and lose leverage.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Good on the Mets. Having Santana would have been awesome, but at least he's not on the enemy.

Now it frees up Coco Crisp for a trade.

Yeah, but doesn't it also remove the only team that thought Coco Crisp had any value?

[molson]

So the Twins had the Red Sox and Yankees bidding against each other, both offering up top prospects in fear that their rival would get him. The Twins (for some reason) waited for that cool down, and then ended up with much less with probably the only team left that could afford to pay him?

Am I missing anything? The Twins deserve to sink back into small market irrelevance. What a joke of a franchise.

[Logan]

The best part in all this is that they could've afforded to keep Santana.

[Captain2711]

Originally Posted by molson

So the Twins had the Red Sox and Yankees bidding against each other, both offering up top prospects in fear that their rival would get him. The Twins (for some reason) waited for that cool down, and then ended up with much less with probably the only team left that could afford to pay him?

Am I missing anything? The Twins deserve to sink back into small market irrelevance. What a joke of a franchise.

Bottom line is that Minnesota didn't want to have to face this guy 4 or 5 times a year for the rest of his career. Unless they got the two highly touted prospects they sought from the Yankees and Boston, they weren't going to make the deal with these powers. The Twins could never win a playoff series against these two teams when they had Johan, trading him to one of the two perrenial AL franchises who almost always make the playoffs is assuring them of the same fate. At least this way they have a fighting chance. Plus it is rumored that Johan said if he wasn't traded before the start of spring training he wouldn't waive his no trade clause and this put Minnesota in a no win situation. Nobody knows about whose prospects will develop better anyways.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Logan

The best part in all this is that they could've afforded to keep Santana.

Or, they could've kept Santana and taken the draft pick compensation from losing him as a FA - looking at the deal they accepted from the Mets, they may have been better off just taking the picks.

[sterlingice]

SI

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Logan

The best part in all this is that they could've afforded to keep Santana.

If Carl Pohlad wasn't such a cheapskate. It's his way of thanking the Minnesota taxpayers for building him a new stadium, by trading their ace. Way to go, guys.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by molson

I didn't say it didn't work, I just don't think it's possible in MLB so lets give up already and get rid of the small market teams.

+1

Seriously. There is no point in bothering with this small-market silliness if baseball owners don't really believe in parity. They never have, I get that. But even with one of them at the helm, there is no realistic shot for a team in a medium-to-small market to compete with the big boys.

Or more to the point, those teams have less margin for error. The Yankees can make bad signings left and right and make up for it, by nature of their location. The Pirates and Royals spend to say "see, we're trying..." and then after their stop playing over their heads in June are back to irrelevance and the worst part of baseball season is that it drags on so long that you're just beaten over the head all year with how bad your team is and how it doesn't measure up to the other ones.

Put another team in LA, out in the Inland Empire, give NYC another team and stop this charade of small market silliness, if these teams are never going to be able to get a fair shake at things. I'm against contraction and don't believe the myth that there aren't "quality" baseball players out there for as many as 36 teams in the majors.

But if the system is already rigged to provide for only a few of those teams to get into the playoffs AND the realistic shot goes overwhelmingly to a few, what's the point?

As a side note, I'm notionally in favor of expanded playoffs in baseball and a shortened regular season, but since that'll never happen, cut spring training and add to the playoffs. Since second place teams already get playoffs shares anyway , why not let them get in and earn them anyway? It'd be better for the fans, more interesting for TV and the only people who would complain are so-called "purists" who if they had their way, would still want the sport to play with two single-table leagues to finish out who wins the best-of-nine world series.

That said, good work by Omar Minaya to push hard and make this deal happen, nothing like trying to overshadow the Yankees in a year when they're clearly still on the decline, have had an upheaval and yet, will be getting massive attention for the last year of Yankee Stadium, which Shea could never compete with. So just win and let them eulogize their mausoleum once and for all.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by molson

So the Twins had the Red Sox and Yankees bidding against each other, both offering up top prospects in fear that their rival would get him. The Twins (for some reason) waited for that cool down, and then ended up with much less with probably the only team left that could afford to pay him?

Am I missing anything? The Twins deserve to sink back into small market irrelevance. What a joke of a franchise.

The twins did mess this up which you are correct on but calling them "a joke of a franchise" is clearly wrong.

They are one of the few small market teams that have atleast been able to compete year in and year out with 1/3 of the yankees payroll. The twins are great at scouting and this keeps their minor leagues stacked. They are also able to find players that other teams miss, Liriano, Santana, Nathan. Twins actually seem far ahead of most teams in finding prospects, now they just need to find a way to keep them.

I am guessing Guerra ends up being a nice pitcher and Gomez ends up better than Martinez from knowing the twins scouting backround. The twins had no interest in Martinez is what I have been hearing, they wanted Gomez much more.

I am upset however that they messed up the Yankee deal as I think Hughes is a pitcher ready to step in and perform and Cabrera would fill the void at CF.

[miked]

Everyone keeps calling the Twins small market and how great they are to compete at 1/3 the Yanks payroll, but the fact of the matter is that Carl Pohlad just pockets revenue sharing money. He cries poor to the city and fans while they pay to see him not put the best product he can on the field. Poor Ryan, he'll take the heat for this, but I'm sure Pohlad didn't want ML guys so he wouldn't have to write more paychecks.

[Ksyrup]

I don't understand the sentiment that the Twins made a bad deal here. For only 1 guaranteed year of Santana plus the right to exclusively negotiate with him, I think the Twins did reasonably well. That's all the Twins had to offer someone. Forget about "but he's the best pticher in baseball!!!" That's almost irrelevant - the question is what is he "worth?"

I think people are completely discounting the economics if they think the Twins could or should have been able to pull off a baseball card-type trade here. Haren is not quite the pitcher Santana is, but he's worth more in trade. Who knows what they'll get out of the 4 guys they got, but even if they all bust, what did they lose? One year of Santana in a season in which 2 teams in their division are appreciably better, and FA draft pick compensation that, at best, won't pan out for 3-5 years - if ever. That's it.

Four prospects in exchange for 1 great season out of your top pitcher when the team would be lucky to compete for a division title if everything went right and things went wrong for the 2 stronger teams in your division...that's not a bad trade-off in the long run. That's also why the Orioles would be smart to deal Bedard now. He may have an extra year on his contract, but he hasn't even proven that he can pitch 200 innings in a season yet. Angelos is a fool if he doesn't pull the trigger on that deal.

You can argue the Sox/Yanks deals were better, but (a) I think they wanted him out of the league, and (b) I'm entirely convinced that outside of Hankenstein, there wasn't a person with the Yanks or Sox that really wanted Santana - both giving up the prospects and paying him. They were only in it to keep the other from getting him. Theo would have made the deal and paid him if Hankenstein had forced Cashman into making the deal. But otherwise, they're happy their main competition didn't get him, and as a bonus, he's now in the NL. So I don't really think the Twins had a deal with either team that would have been ultimately accepted. Kinda like the Marlins kept "making deals" with the Angels, only to keep switching them up until the Tigers offer came along.

Bottom line - coming in 2nd or 3rd with Santana is not worth compensation picks. They may not be appreciably better in 2009-2011 with the guys they got if they don't pan out, but they are no worse off now than they were keeping Santana, other than for 2008. And I don't think this team is a playoff team in 2008. So they didn't really lose anything.

[Logan]

They were also set to pay Santana $13 million this season, and had Torii Hunter's $12 million off the books. Sure it's a different kind of financial commitment to sign Santana to a $120 million deal, but this whole "the Twins don't have the budget to keep Santana" is complete bullshit. Pohlad chose not to incorporate him into the budget he wanted to spend, and I hope the good people in Minnesota don't let him forget that, since it seems like the rest of the country buys into this fallacy.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't understand the sentiment that the Twins made a bad deal here.

They made a bad deal because they forced themselves to trade a player that they didn't need to trade and could have afforded.

[Ksyrup]

I'm amused that people really think Santana would have re-signed. It's a two-way street, you know. Even the Mets are rumored not to be offering him more than 5 years, but are willing to go $22M-$25M a year. That's precedent-setting. And if they go more than 5 years, they're breaking their own rules about what kind of long-term commitment they'd give a pitcher. I don't blame the Twins for not wanting to pay that amount - and that's assuming you buy into the idea that Santana would have accepted it if offered. They offered him something reasonably close to what Zambrano got. The problem is...Zito. As bad a pitcher as he is, Santana looks like a $200M pitcher by comparison. The Zito deal is Mike Hampton all over again.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Logan

They made a bad deal because they forced themselves to trade a player that they didn't need to trade and could have afforded.

Even assuming they could afford him, and that he would have re-signed (which I doubt, as stated above), I'm not sure I follow why that would be a good signing? Plenty of teams can afford to pay players - great players, even - a lot of money. That doesn't mean they are smart decisions.

[Logan]

Yes, I think he would've re-signed if they gave him a reasonable contract at the beginning of last season instead of offering him a 4-year deal. Then he would've been locked up for 5-7 years and when they went ahead and traded Castillo at the deadline and didn't improve the team at all, Santana wouldn't have been able to come out and say that with the direction the team is going, he won't be back. Maybe if he already has his deal he demands a trade anyway, but he's a lot more attractive to, yes, probably only the supposed "big market clubs," when he already has a long-term deal in place and teams don't need to worry about giving up the farm for nothing.

So yes, it's a bad deal because once they started this chain of events, they severely limited what they could have gotten in return.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You can argue the Sox/Yanks deals were better, but (a) I think they wanted him out of the league, and (b) I'm entirely convinced that outside of Hankenstein, there wasn't a person with the Yanks or Sox that really wanted Santana - both giving up the prospects and paying him. They were only in it to keep the other from getting him. Theo would have made the deal and paid him if Hankenstein had forced Cashman into making the deal. But otherwise, they're happy their main competition didn't get him, and as a bonus, he's now in the NL. So I don't really think the Twins had a deal with either team that would have been ultimately accepted. Kinda like the Marlins kept "making deals" with the Angels, only to keep switching them up until the Tigers offer came along.

Bottom line - coming in 2nd or 3rd with Santana is not worth compensation picks. They may not be appreciably better in 2009-2011 with the guys they got if they don't pan out, but they are no worse off now than they were keeping Santana, other than for 2008. And I don't think this team is a playoff team in 2008. So they didn't really lose anything.

I'm definitely not arguing the second point. Getting something for Santana had to happen since it was pretty evident he wasn't going to resign. I think the "Twins could have kept him" line of reasoning sailed a while ago when he really didn't want to stay. And whoever posted above that they could have gotten compensation picks and that would have been better- that's a joke. "You can get some good to decent prospects or roll the dice with some players in the draft in the lower half of the first round and sandwich picks"- I'll take the already known quantity- it's not like they were going to get picks 1-3 in the 2010 draft for him.

The bigger problem is the perception that they left a lot better deals on the table by overplaying their hand. That said, I've never been all that enamored with any of the deals out there for Santana- there were either overhyped East Coast prospects or not enough quality in the quantity. If I were the new Twins GM whose name escapes me, I'd have picked up the phone and asked if the M's would want a much better Santana for the deal on the table right now for Bedard. May not have happened but at least would have tried.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Why would you sign a pitcher to even a 5-year deal 2 years before his current deal is up? Isn't that an unnecessary risk? This isn't some young pitcher you're buying arbitration and first years of FA from - there's really no benefit to the club, other than bending over backwards to make him happy. And I'm sure if he blew his arm out last year, he'd be happy to sit home and cash his checks. It makes no sense to commit that kind of money to a guy that long before you have to. This off-season would have made sense.

I simply don't follow any of the premises of your arguments.

Frankly, I think the Twins should be criticized more for giving Morneau the deal he got than the Santana trade. Morneau isn't even a top 5 first baseman, and they gave him a market value contract as if he was one.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Why would you sign a pitcher to even a 5-year deal 2 years before his current deal is up? This isn't some young pitcher you're buying arbitration and first years of FA from - there's really no benefit to the club, other than bending over backwards to make him happy. And I'm sure if he blew his arm out last year, he'd be happy to sit home and cash his checks. It makes no sense to commit that kind of money to a guy that long before you have to. This off-season would have made sense.

I don't know, ask the Twins, who felt it made sense to offer him a 4-year deal two years before his current deal is up.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Why would you sign a pitcher to even a 5-year deal 2 years before his current deal is up? Isn't that an unnecessary risk?

Because he has a no-trade clause and wouldn't waive it without being dealt and getting a long-term deal in return for waiving it, with a pay raise. So you do it because you want him on your team and more importantly, you want to make sure one of your opponents doesn't get him.

Sometimes, it's just as important to deal for a guy to keep him away from another team, as it is to get the boost that you get from your fans for getting the "big name" guy on your club.

Especially in a high power market like New York where the Yankees inherently dominate the airwaves. The bump they'll get from this is probably worth it regardless.

It's not like the money matters to them, so when you factor that part in...that question would only matter to a team that doesn't have the cash to blow anyway. For the Mets, it's no skin off their back one way or another.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Frankly, I think the Twins should be criticized more for giving Morneau the deal he got than the Santana trade. Morneau isn't even a top 5 first baseman, and they gave him a market value contract as if he was one.

Cuddyer too. His contract is lower but so is his production. You pay through the nose for start players because they are scarce. Cuddyer and Morneau have value, but they're much more replacable than Santana.

Now if Johan decided he didn't want to play in Minny, the same way Torii Hunter did, then that's different.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Frankly, I think the Twins should be criticized more for giving Morneau the deal he got than the Santana trade. Morneau isn't even a top 5 first baseman, and they gave him a market value contract as if he was one.

Well he may or may not be a top 5 first baseman but he was the league MVP two years ago. He still hasnt came up upon his peak years. I think they did a smart thing by locking him up. Cuddyer I am unsure about.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by miked

Everyone keeps calling the Twins small market and how great they are to compete at 1/3 the Yanks payroll, but the fact of the matter is that Carl Pohlad just pockets revenue sharing money. He cries poor to the city and fans while they pay to see him not put the best product he can on the field. Poor Ryan, he'll take the heat for this, but I'm sure Pohlad didn't want ML guys so he wouldn't have to write more paychecks.

Are you Pohlad's C.P.A by chance? How would you really know what he does with the revenue sharing money? Terry Ryan resigned a few months back so I dont think he will be taking much heat. He didnt make the deal.

[ISiddiqui]

Even if they had to overspend wildly? That's how you end up screwing up your franchise... unless you have money pouring out from everywhere (ie, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, etc).

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Even if they had to overspend wildly? That's how you end up screwing up your franchise... unless you have money pouring out from everywhere (ie, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, etc).

Why do people seem to think they overspent "wildly" for Morneau? 13.33 million per year for a pre-peak first baseman that won the league MVP two years ago is a bargain.

Giambi, Helton, Sexon, Thome, Delgado all make more than this just at his position and arent near as good.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The twins did mess this up which you are correct on but calling them "a joke of a franchise" is clearly wrong.

They are one of the few small market teams that have atleast been able to compete year in and year out with 1/3 of the yankees payroll. The twins are great at scouting and this keeps their minor leagues stacked. They are also able to find players that other teams miss, Liriano, Santana, Nathan. Twins actually seem far ahead of most teams in finding prospects, now they just need to find a way to keep them.

I am guessing Guerra ends up being a nice pitcher and Gomez ends up better than Martinez from knowing the twins scouting backround. The twins had no interest in Martinez is what I have been hearing, they wanted Gomez much more.

I am upset however that they messed up the Yankee deal as I think Hughes is a pitcher ready to step in and perform and Cabrera would fill the void at CF.

Missing out on Hughes is just another misstep for this team that as you mention has done a better job than just about any other team in baseball of stocking their major league team with youngsters ready to contribute.

However once the Twins are at or near the Major League level, they have a strong tendency to stagnate. Cuddyer, Bartlett, Garza, Baker and to a lesser extent Santana were either misused of jerked around between AAA and the Majors during some of their prime development phases. Morneau and Mauer, who were largely left alone, have both developed exceptionally well as expected.

Take last year's team. Instead of letting Garza, Baker and whoever else open up the year in the 4th and 5th rotation spots, they went out and spent $5-6MM or however much it was on Sidney Ponson and Russ Ortiz to picth instead. Only once they sucked did the kids get called up, who were probably better in the first place. Meanwhile, the Twins were trotting out Nick Punto and Jason Tyner on a regular basis. If they had spent that 6M on someone competent in those two positions and the kids had sone well, they probably would have been in for a WC slot. Instead it was a waste of a season and the current window for winning a championship has now officially closed with the Santana trade.

It has to be immensely frustrating to be a fan of a team that is always so close to being special but yet continually manages to fuck it up.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Why do people seem to think they overspent "wildly" for Morneau? 13.33 million per year for a pre-peak first baseman that won the league MVP two years ago is a bargain.

Giambi, Helton, Sexon, Thome, Delgado all make more than this just at his position and arent near as good.

Let's compare (lets also ignore that he didn't deserve the MVP two years ago... wasn't even the best position player on his team even). Morneau this past season had a 121 OPS+. That's pretty good. Let's ignore defense for a second (it's 1B anyway). Giambi (who is totally overpaid) had an injury filled season and a 108 OPS+. Helton had a 133 OPS+. Sexson, who is also ridiculously overpaid, had an injury filled 84 OPS+. Thome had a 150+. Delgado had a horrid year with a 103 OPS+

On the other hand, you have far cheaper options like Kevin Youklis and his 117 OPS+, Carlos Pena with 172 OPS+, Ryan Garko with 117, Casey Kotchman at 119, Adrian Gonzalez at 125, James Loney at 131 etc.

I would have saved my money for Santana, frankly.