2008 Financials Thread

[Fidatelo]

I think the bank will tell you 40%, but both of those numbers seem a bit high. I also think it's a little screwy because your other costs are generally more fixed, so as you earn more you could likely take on a higher percentage towards mortgage because the percentage of your income that utilities and whatnot consume is lowering.

I'd say the best bet would be to write up a budget, look at what all of your expenses will be (aside from the mortgage), throw in the money you want to be saving, a contingency fund, etc, then see what's left. You probably don't want to use up all of that leftover, but it should give you a ballpark of the high-end of what you can reasonably afford.

Also keep in mind that mortgage rates can change, so if you take say a 5 year term, and during that time mortgage rates double, how will that affect your ability to pay when you re-up?

[MikeVic]

Yeah I should do that budget thing. I'm thinking I wouldn't want more than 25% though (before taxes). That seems like a decent number to me.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Quick question... what was the general rule of thumb for mortgages again... I know I read it from a link I got from FOFC, or someone on FOFC said it. But wasn't it no more than 1/3 of your monthly salary (before taxes)?

Depends entirely on the person, age and situation imho - for example if you've a stable job and know you'll get promoted/decent raise in the near future then you might be comfortable with a larger percentage than someone with an unstable situation or whom isn't expecting a large pay rise in the future.

Its also important to ensure that you can handle paying any future 'bumps' in the mortgage - if you get a 3 year fixed rate then ensure you're comfortable with the rate you'll be paying in year 4 - yes you might look at moving it elsewhere then, but just in case make sure you're ok with it.

[Flasch186]

April 18

Well I thought I'd put this in this thread since it is effectively financial. They told my wife today (who works at the same place that I do) that at the last round of layoffs it was between she and another girl and that there was quite a tug-of-war but that she was saved by the skin of her teeth. We're in new home sales so he said that to make up for this he needed some sales out of her and fast. Anyways, she will continue to plug along and collect the draw until they turn it off trying to make a sale when she can but they put her in a very difficult community (they shuffled the deck today). Then it will be updating the resume, and seeing if she can get some sort of work until I decide we can start a family and she can stay at home, hanging her real estate license part-time. Not a good couple of days and because Im so emotional I was up all night, not a wink of sleep. suck.

[MikeVic]

I'm sorry Flasch. I hope everything turns out fine.

[Kodos]

What MikeVic said.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Yeah I should do that budget thing. I'm thinking I wouldn't want more than 25% though (before taxes). That seems like a decent number to me.

Definitely draw up a budget - you have to account for a lot of extra expenses when you own a home. You must account for the following:

- monthly mortgage payments
- property taxes (very important thing many people forget when building their budget)
- Hydro Bill
- Gas Bill
- Water Bill
- Phone Bill
- House Insurance
- Cable/Internet Bill
- Groceries

Those are the bare essentials...doesn't include spending money, clothes, car/gas bills, car insurance, investing, etc. You'll also need a 'rainy-day' fund should something happen to your furnace or if the roof needs to be replaced.

As a point of reference, my mortgage was slightly higher than the combined yearly income (gross) of my wife and I and there's no way I would want to go any higher than that. Our quality of life would certainly suffer.

EDIT:
I should probably add that we are both fortunate to have excellent, secure jobs and we were able to contribute a substantial downpayment to lessen the load on our mortgage requirements. All of those factors helped us tremendously so my case may not be valid for comparison.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

April 18

Well I thought I'd put this in this thread since it is effectively financial. They told my wife today (who works at the same place that I do) that at the last round of layoffs it was between she and another girl and that there was quite a tug-of-war but that she was saved by the skin of her teeth. We're in new home sales so he said that to make up for this he needed some sales out of her and fast. Anyways, she will continue to plug along and collect the draw until they turn it off trying to make a sale when she can but they put her in a very difficult community (they shuffled the deck today). Then it will be updating the resume, and seeing if she can get some sort of work until I decide we can start a family and she can stay at home, hanging her real estate license part-time. Not a good couple of days and because Im so emotional I was up all night, not a wink of sleep. suck.

Best of luck to you and your wife Flasch.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

As a point of reference, my mortgage was slightly higher than the combined yearly income (gross) of my wife and I and there's no way I would want to go any higher than that. Our quality of life would certainly suffer.

Thanks for the list of things to consider. I'd be doing this myself, no other income. There is no way for me to be able to get a mortgage that isn't higher than my yearly income, but that is a nice thought.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Thanks for the list of things to consider. I'd be doing this myself, no other income. There is no way for me to be able to get a mortgage that isn't higher than my yearly income, but that is a nice thought.

Excellent...I think you're on the right track. I'm guessing you're quite a bit younger than I was when I bought my first house so building up equity this early in your life will do wonders for you.

Good luck!

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by NoSkillz

Excellent...I think you're on the right track. I'm guessing you're quite a bit younger than I was when I bought my first house so building up equity this early in your life will do wonders for you.

Good luck!

Thanks.

I haven't decided yet on house, condo, townhouse, etc. though. House was ideal, but I don't know if I absolutely need one right now, so a nice condo or townhouse might do. But then I wouldn't get my basement, and I'd be sharing walls or floors/ceilings with someone. And I'd like a garage badly too. So a lot of pros/cons to think about I guess. I just more wanted to get pre-approved so I could start looking in the summer for something that catches my eye.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Friday April 18, 2008

Have I ever mentioned how much I love Potash as a company?

POT increased $8.82/share today to lead the charge for my portfolio, which increased 2.03% on the day versus the TSX, which only increased 0.86%.

As I expected, Google's great earnings meant great things for tech as a whole. I was able to sell my remaining shares of Research in Motion for $125.87 after purchasing them for $118.41, a 6.2% increase after commissions in the one week I held the stock. Not bad!

Apple also jumped bigtime, ending the day $6.55 higher to $161.04. I'm up substantially on this holding and it's already eclipsed my target sell price but I now expect bigger and better things in the week ahead with the upcoming earnings announcement. I'll continue to hold until midweek at the earliest...

It was another solid week, although one where I lagged slightly behind the market index due to my losses in US exchange on the Apple purchase.

Week Ending April 18, 2008
TSX: +4.05%
NoSkillz: +3.65%

I couldn't be happier with the way my year has gone to this point.

Year to Date 2008
TSX: +2.90%
NoSkillz: +15.70% (whoo! Go Potash!)

[Kodos]

You're gonna have to change your name if you keep it up.

[MikeVic]

I met with my bank and will now call other banks to see if they can beat the %. I was told that the prime rate may go down in a couple of weeks too.

One thing that was mentioned, was to take the 40-year amortization period and then make the larger payments on your own. That way, if you can't make the larger payments for a particular month, you can make the smaller payment that a 40-year amortization brings. Is there a downside to this? It seems like a sound plan...

[Flasch186]

I tell people the same thing but with 30 year loans.

[Flasch186]

So I think this week Ill be looking to get into one of my stocks that I watch on any pull back and perhaps go Long with it. I say this because when I thought the market would go down again it boomed. Now that I think that we're perhaps getting out of the woods I want to forewarn you all so that you can avoid the avalanche that will likely come about due to the contra-flasch theorem.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I met with my bank and will now call other banks to see if they can beat the %. I was told that the prime rate may go down in a couple of weeks too.

One thing that was mentioned, was to take the 40-year amortization period and then make the larger payments on your own. That way, if you can't make the larger payments for a particular month, you can make the smaller payment that a 40-year amortization brings. Is there a downside to this? It seems like a sound plan...

I think the downside is that it puts the onus on you to be structured and disciplined enough to make the larger payments as much as you can. There might also be differences in your final amount of interest paid but that math gets too confusing for me and I have no idea how to go about figuring it out. Might be something worth asking about though.

[Flasch186]

Looks like I finally got something right. Apparently Contra-flasch couldnt figure out that I bought the misses and myself plane tickets to Alaska in July. I bought 2 round trip tickets about 3 weeks ago for ~$700 each....checked today and theyre closer to ~$1500 each. Yes!

[MikeVic]

Yeah I'll have to look into it more. My initial attempt at a budget sucks ass. I didn't even do recreation/entertainment, savings for rainy day, clothing, and a couple other things and I was already over my monthly salary. This is all assuming I pay 5% down. When I tried 10%, it didn't seem to make much of a difference. Monthly payments lowered, but by less than $100. I'm thinking I need to really cut back on every aspect of what I do monthly, not get cable, and then some... or re-think all this.


To stay on-topic about financials... I have Apollo Group Inc. (APOL) on my watch, since I believe someone here mentioned them. There's a news thing from a couple hours ago about the CEO winning some prestigious Young Entrepreneur award, and the stock is now over 3% down today... I don't understand things like this still. Wouldn't that news be seen as a positive?

[Flasch186]

I dont think a CEO winning an award has anything to do with a positive or negative move other than something tiny.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I think the downside is that it puts the onus on you to be structured and disciplined enough to make the larger payments as much as you can.

That would be my reservation. I think a lot of people would pay a higher amount initially, but then hit a rough period for their finances at some point, go down to the minimum payment, and then never remember to go back up once their finances straightened out.

[Flasch186]

Fair warning, I bought into Apple (AAPL) today on it's 5% pullback. This is just ahead of earnings and truly is gambling a bit, which Ive been averse to do lately. Im basing this, mainly, on the tech international sector's general beat of earnings (outside of Texas Instruments). I suspect that Apple will beat and speak positively on the rest of the year with some caution. I expect to make back this 5% or so and then another 2-3%. Ill make a decision on what to do then but....


this means you all should get out of the tech sector at the least as this will very likely be the pullback Ive looked for and Contra-flasch would mean that it would come now, now that Ive entered.

BTW Im thinking, slightly, about shorting Oil using the ultra-short DUG. Now that Boone Pickens has flipped to being long I think i might be ripe for a nice reset. Ill let you know when I do so you can go long.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Fair warning, I bought into Apple (AAPL) today on it's 5% pullback. This is just ahead of earnings and truly is gambling a bit, which Ive been averse to do lately. Im basing this, mainly, on the tech international sector's general beat of earnings (outside of Texas Instruments). I suspect that Apple will beat and speak positively on the rest of the year with some caution. I expect to make back this 5% or so and then another 2-3%. Ill make a decision on what to do then but....

I wouldn't worry about AAPL. Like you said, I feel the earnings will be strong and I am actually waiting it out to see if the share price hits $180. I'm heading down to Florida tomorrow morning at the crack of dawn to play golf for a few days and will hold onto the stock until I get back.

Here's hoping for the best!

[NoSkillz]

Dola:

I was in Toronto on business the last two days so no in-depth recaps on my portfolio until I get back from vacation on Sunday.

Monday was excellent for me, as I was up well over 2% and found an entry point into Agrium once again at $88 and change.

Today, my portfolio fared well but my shares in AAPL brought me down and I ended the day slightly in the red. I was able to get into Agnico Eagle Mining (gold stock) when it dipped below $70/share.

I'm going to be missing some fireworks over the next few days while I'm away, as both Apple and Potash report earnings on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. I'm up substantially on both holdings and will keep my fingers crossed that things improve even more by the time I get back.

New targets on the stocks are $175-$180 on Apple and $225-$230 on Potash.

[Flasch186]

April 23

Looks like Apple (AAPL) beats it's earnings and gives some decent guidance going forward. Seeing a very slight pop afterhours and ocnsidering that I still see some downward stuff on the horizon for the entire market I may look to get out if we see 3 days of upward movement. A PT of 174 or so and I'll consider getting out.

later - Seeing downward pressure on Apple now, hmmmmmmmm

it's definitely bouncing around.

[Flasch186]

April 24

Apple (AAPL) is hanging in there after their earnings and the unemployment claims today we're lighter than usual. At least we havn't hit the 400K # we keep hearing about.

I hope NoSkillz is right that the ag boom will continue in spite of what I think will probably be a strengthening $ second half of the year and '09. However the last 2 days Potash has been getting killed and I didnt buy it so contra had nothing to do with it. Ive actually been having better luck as of late.

[MikeVic]

What are your guys' feelings about fixed vs variable rate mortgages? Particularly in Canada. The prime has been cut by 0.5% in the last couple of days... I think I would be scared to go variable.

[Flasch186]

Well stateside I think you should DEFINITELY get aa fixed rate but consider that I think that the dollar must strengthen and rates must be higher to stave off impending inflation concerns for the next few years. I just refi-d out of my arm which didnt expire until NEXT October. I got 5.75% fixed but I worry that next October rates could be substantially higher.

DYODD and only take my opinion as one layman's.

[Fidatelo]

As I've mentioned before, I'm very conservative in terms of money so fixed was the only way to go for me. I liked the fact that I knew exactly what I would pay for the next 7 years. The way I see it, with rates as low as they have been this decade, there is far more downside to variability than upside.

[MikeVic]

Yeah with the rate cut, I think getting a nice fixed would be good. Before the rate cut, I can get a 5.59%. Hopefully the fixed gets cut some more.

[Fidatelo]

Keep in mind that unless you are putting down 20% or more you'll need Mortage Loan Insurance through CMHC, which will add to that 5.59% (unless you are including that already, in which case ignore me).

[MikeVic]

Yes I went to see a bank person. I only have 5% as a down that I'd be comfortable with, so the mortgage amount already included the 2.75% or whatever fee in it.

[Flasch186]

April 28

With talk that the FED may be reaching an end or pause in the rate cut cycle coupled with the ECB reporting that they themselves believe the Euro may be top heavy we could see some strength in the dollar for a while. If that's the case you're going to see the first true test of whether or not the Ag thing is a bubble or not (along with many other commodities). If the Commodity trade cracks you could see blood in the streets. If it holds through this then you could see a HUGE explosion to the upside when the fear subsides.

I continue to Hold Apple, CSCO, and XLF and look to move out of Apple some point this week should it hit 175+.

I still believe we see a massive drop in equities sometime in May and retests of lows with major volatility across the summer. Knowing this, the market will probably continue it's bull run right in my eye.

[Flasch186]

For those of you who want to dabble in this but want zero the risk, CNBC.com is running a contest with weekly winners based on your portfolio gains. Go over there and check it out and see how you do before you risk your real money in the market.

[Flasch186]

April 29

Premarket sees continued pressure on the commodities as the camp that the FED will cut .25 and signal an end to cuts continues to grow. This will see $ strengthen and ag stocks/oil/commodities see a real test of their fundamentals. I will be looking to get out of my Apple (AAPL) holding today taking a nice profit and waving my fist as I finally played something right this year. Truly the only big winners thus far this year are those that got lucky or truly knew the commodity ups and downs. I, unfortunately dont, and thus missed out on those gains there. Going short oil (DUG) still seems attractive but speculative.

[NoSkillz]

Looks like I took the wrong time to take a vacation!

Things weren't too bad the last three days of last week, thankfully. My portfolio still increased overall last week, moving up 1.67% while the TSX index actually dropped 0.94%.

Not bad!

However, things got ugly for my portfolio on Monday and Tuesday of this week as commodity prices took a huge hit, not good for my agricultural holdings.

Both Potash and Agrium dropped like rocks, with Potash falling from $210/share down to $183 while Agrium dropped from the low 90s to the high 70s.

I'm down an unsightly 5.17% this week versus the TSX, which is down a more modest 1.97%.

No big deal. There is no reason to panic, as the prospects for growth with both companies remains staggering. I'm pretty much fully invested right now so I'm not entirely able to take advantage of the lower costs unless I move out of Apple, something I'm not sure I want to do yet. I still see some potential for additional growth there - keep in mind I bought in around $146/share and it's currently $30/share higher right now.

Tech seems to have gained some steam in recent days with the commodity hit so I'll hold on for a bit longer and see what develops.

[Flasch186]

yeah, even though I want to take some profits in Apple I see too much upward pressure and now think it could be above 200 shortly. Remember though there is a lot of sentiment to "sell in May - walk away" so we'll need to be sure that the numbers coming out dont force the market into a tailspin. I still fear that BUT in learning from my mistakes Ive done opposite of what I thought I should, so I bought minimally into POT too on it's down days. Very minimal though. My biggest holding right now is Apple which is now my best play of the year although I am definitely still down overall this year.

[Flasch186]

BTW Etrade (ETFC) is killing it today. Not sure why but man I think I need to institute some sort of 2 wk. hold rule. I seem to pull out too early on most of my trades (Although Ive held my investments a long long time [CSCO & XLF]). HAd I held Google for that 2 wk. period I'd have made a killing and same thing with ETFC (although I wouldnt have had the funds to take advantage if I'd held GOOG)

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Wednesday April 30, 2008

Kind of a tentative day in the market yesterday as investors seemed to hold back until the Fed announcement. Not much in the way of fireworks, that's for sure.

My portfolio increased 0.87% while the TSX was up 0.80%. I'm still way down for the week (-4.34%) while the TSX is down 1.19%.

April is over and even with the poor finish to the month, I had a spectacular 30 days.

APRIL 2008
TSX Index: +4.39%
NoSkillz: +9.15%

YEAR TO DATE 2008
TSX Index: +0.72%
NoSkillz: +12.72%

It should be an interesting day again today to see what investors decide to do. The CDN dollar is down quite a bit at open vs. the US greenback and that makes me strongly consider selling off Apple to take advantage of the currency exchange gain I'd make.

[Flasch186]

I think the commodities trade is broken. POT (and other Ag names) and GLD and USO are going to begin a downward trend. The nail in the coffin is my tiny holding in POT. I will absolutely sell it on the next up day (which doesnt look like today). IMO youre beginning to hear the air come out of this bubble and perhaps it will reset when the summer is over and begin another bull run but for now this trade is broken.

BIG news in Apple that I dont think is getting enough coverage. AT&T (T) is going to subsidize the new 3G Iphone (speculated to be coming out end of June) bringing the price down dramatically with a 2 year contract. Apple (AAPL) loses nothing and will see dramatic gains in Iphone saturation. I think that this stock will be above 200 in short time.

[Flasch186]

PS - shoulda shorted oil (DUG) when I was thinking about it. Instead I try to out-think Contra-flasch and buy POT (even when I think correctly I overthink it).

OH, and I am instituting a 2 wk. hold on any stock I buy. We'll see if that helps things now that I think Volatility in the broader market may wain.

BTW I also think GOOG is going to be nearing 1000/share by the end of next year.

[Flasch186]

whew, while POT was able to pare it's losses I sold it on it's uptick today still losing in the long run but a very very minimal loss. Knowing this, the whole Commodity boom should go on a tear. I honestly think that this, Oil, Gold etc. is a broken trade now and I tried to go opposite my thoughts but I feel what I feel and IMO all signs point to a strengthening $ over the next 6 months. This will be the last time I can sell something prior to holding it at least 2 weeks which makes me nervous but it is needed to help maximize gains and stop pulling ripcords or profits too early.

In other news, My holdings flew today and I am actually nearing breakeven on my financial play (XLF).

Im still in the red on Cisco (CSCO) but I seemed to have bought that one at it's high and will continue to hold it for the long haul.

Apple, in the meantime is winning big for me (thank god) and I'm up over 11% in this holding. I'll reset my price target for $200 on this one as the AT&T subsidy should be huge IMO.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

whew, while POT was able to pare it's losses I sold it on it's uptick today still losing in the long run but a very very minimal loss. Knowing this, the whole Commodity boom should go on a tear. I honestly think that this, Oil, Gold etc. is a broken trade now and I tried to go opposite my thoughts but I feel what I feel. This will be the last time I can sell something prior to holding it at least 2 weeks which makes me nervous but it is needed to help maximize gains and stop pulling ripcords or profits too early.

In other news, My holdings flew today and I am actually nearing breakeven on my financial play (XLF).

Im still in the red on Cisco (CSCO) but I seemed to have bought that one at it's high and will continue to hold it for the long haul.

Apple, in the meantime is winning big for me (thank god) and I'm up over 11% in this holding. I'll reset my price target for $200 on this one as the AT&T subsidy should be huge IMO.

Sorry Flasch, but I just don't understand why you would panic on POT after two days...your strategies just blow my mind. The fact that you're admitting you are contradicting your new strategy seals it.

You will regret selling it for a loss, even if it was a small one - this stock moves up and down 10 bucks in an hour a lot of days and you easily could sell for a little profit if you just waited it out for a bit...

[Flasch186]

because I was trying to do the opposite of my thoughts in a contra-flasch bone. I think about something, go through the reasons for it happening or not happening, and truly feel that over the next week we see Ag lower and oil near $100/barrel.....In this case i tried to do the opposite of my conclusion. Hey, I hope Im wrong as I'd love to see you continue your tear.

A strengthening $ is deadly to the commodity trade overall and I think the $ strengthens over the next 6 months.

I only owned 7 shares

Edit to add: If you buy something within a parabolic move, you could end up holding it for years before you see a profit.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

because I was trying to do the opposite of my thoughts in a contra-flasch bone. I think about something, go through the reasons for it happening or not happening, and truly feel that over the next week we see Ag lower and oil near $100/barrel.

A strengthening $ is deadly to the commodity trade overall and I think the $ strengthens over the next 6 months.

I only owned 7 shares

Ha! Well, that is certainly not a big deal then!

I want to state for the record that I agree somewhat with your assessment that the commodity trade is going to soften somewhat over the next month or so. However, there is still money to be made in this segment if you are playing the market short.

Also, from a fundamental perspective, while the valuations on agriculture stocks have corrected somewhat, there is nothing wrong with the companies themselves - in fact, Potash is sitting at a great price right now for long-term, value investors. The shortages that have been announced in this field are very real and the prospects for growth in companies like Mosaic, Agrium and Potash remain tremendous.

I have a much bigger stake in these companies and will hold as long as necessary to reach my targets.

[Flasch186]

perhaps I should be more clear about my plays....I do not have a lot of money in the market on the whole but it's all relative.

To clarify my biggest holding is Apple, Cisco next, then XLF, then my wife's First Solar which got creamed but she said she'd hold that for 10 years.....she owns 3 shares

POT was 5/100 of my involvement (I think)

The stock that killed me over the last 9 months was Sirius satellite (SIRI)....I could do nothing right in there.

My sizable holding in AAPL has cut my yearly losses in half due to it's heavily weighted position versus all of my other holdings. That's a good thing because CSCO and XLF have been horrible until recently.

[Flasch186]

DOLA:

So the question is this, and the one Im asking myself...

If we're going to see a rotation over the next 6 mos - 1 year (assuming no cracks in the economy are exposed outside of what we already know or expect) where will the rotation go.

Let me recap, the money left the real estate market and went into the markets, OIL mainly but even broader markets including emerging markets, Commodities gained steam and then the market reset. Money left the equities, left from emerging plays, and went into bonds and solid stuff (Gold, Silver, etc. Commodities has continued to plod through all of the mess. So where is the money going to go?

It's obviously going to go back into equities but will it also flow into BRIC? Will it begin to move into US equities as a dollar strengthens? Will money move from Euro-centric stuff into dollar centric stuff? I guess this is the same question sages ask all the time and when you find it, youre generally too late...unless your name begins with an N and ends in a Z

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Thursday May 1, 2008

A up-and-down day for traders on the TSX exchange, with things staring on the positive side, moving down throughout the morning and then sharply rising near the end of the day back into positive territory.

The TSX was up 128.77 points today (+0.92%) while my portfolio lagged slightly behind, rising only 0.75%.

Only five of my eleven positions increased on the day: March Networks, HudBay Minerals, Apple, Potash and Agrium all went up while Uranium One, MGM Energy, Teck Cominco, First Quantum, Baytex Energy and Agnico Eagle Mining all decreased.

I was THIS CLOSE to moving half my shares of Apple today but like Flasch, I strongly feel that this has more legs. Tech is all of a sudden booming again and a $190 share price is a very real possibility. I'll keep an eye out tomorrow at both the share price and the exchange rate difference between the greenback and the loonie to see if I should move some money out of this holding.

At this point though, there is no real reason for me to move out if the prospects for a $200/share price remain real - I'd consider buying more shares of Potash but it doesn't make much sense for me at this point unless the share price drops below $175/share (currently at $186.55 CDN).

[Flasch186]

....see I see Ag like POT, and MON dropping even more. SO I see POT touching below 170 (wherein it could be a buy along with similar trending stocks) bearing in mind that any loosening of governmental requirements for (corn) ethanol to fuel standards, the sector could weaken even more and there has been a groundswell of support to reduce these requirements.

Long term, your probably right that Agricultural stocks will be big gainers but in the short run I see weakness through the summer. I could see myself reentering the Ag field at some point but where I bought in was not correct and I only did it to be opposite of my own thoughts (I hope Im wrong for ya).

I love Apple and the 3G phone and the AT&T news is enormous IMO and when that shows up on ads it could cause a nice move (although a sale of Apple upon release of the phone may be wise). Im even tempted at that price to make the switch especially after seeing and playing with my Wife's IPOD Touch.

[NoSkillz]

Belated Post-Mortem: Friday May 2, 2008

Things continued to bounce back beautifully on Friday for me last week. The TSX index was up 1.52% while my portfolio jumped a lovely 2.22% on the day.

I was still down for the week overall after a horrible Monday and Tuesday in agricultural holdings.

Week Ending May 2, 2008
TSX: +1.25%
NoSkillz: -1.48%

Still, not bad considering I was down about 7% at one point last week.

Post-Mortem: Monday May 5, 2008

The markets were mixed in Canada today but the resource sector showed a great deal of strength, meaning great things for my resource-heavy portfolio.

The TSX was down 5.94 points today (-0.04%) but my portfolio had a banner day despite this, gaining 2.40%.

Thankfully, the Contra-Flasch theorem has been in full effect lately for my agricultural holdings .

Potash increased another $5.55/share today to close over $196/share, up $14/share since last Tuesday. Apple continues to also storm up nicely, cracking the $185/share barrier at one point before closing at $184 and change.

I'm in a complete holding pattern right now as I wait for Apple to hit my new target of $190/share or so and also hope that the agricultural market continues it's great bounce back. I'm basically at breakeven right now on Potash and slightly behind on Agrium so I need another good day or two before taking my profits.