Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war discussion thread.......

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

You'd burn the movie file onto a DVD. I agree, a bit more trouble in that case, but still can be done.

Of course, for the same amount of trouble I can get the DVD portion of a combo disc onto my iPod, phone, Tivo, etc, etc.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

I'd love to see a quote of this from Sony, because all I've seen is that the SD movie will be transferable to PSPs. I have also seen no mention of DRM for these files.

At Mac World 2008 they pulled a Blu-ray movie off the disk, and put it on an ipod. So no, not just psp.

[stevew]

If it's really this easy, and supported by the studios, then the concept of easy transfer to SD card is appealing to me. No more discs to scratch. I still remain very skeptical, just seems like they would get killed without copy protection of some sort.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by stevew

If it's really this easy, and supported by the studios, then the concept of easy transfer to SD card is appealing to me. No more discs to scratch. I still remain very skeptical, just seems like they would get killed without copy protection of some sort.

They've got pretty much no copy protection right now. You can do EXACTLY the same thing with a DVD (provided you have an 8gb flash drive).


They seem to have no problem letting the SD content out, its the HD stuff they're worried about.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Synovia

At Mac World 2008 they pulled a Blu-ray movie off the disk, and put it on an ipod. So no, not just psp.

The original announcement was a bit misleading, which is likely part of the reason Daimyo is confused. The original annoucement was done to promote PS3 to PSP functionality. They want people to know just how much they can do with the two of them together.

As time has passed, the Apple presentation by Steve Jobs along with other version 2.0 info has shown that the transfer can be done on any multimedia players. Simply put, Sony and the studios are more than happy to give you the standard definition version as a 'reward' for buying the HD version of the movie.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Synovia

Yeah, except people who have SDTVs aren't going to pay $35 for a combo disk when they can get the DVD for $8.99

Neither Hi-Def format takes off until you can buy new releases for $20 or less at Wal-Mart / Target / etc.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Neither Hi-Def format takes off until you can buy new releases for $20 or less at Wal-Mart / Target / etc.

That's honestly not that far in the future. New releases at Wal-Mart currently sell in the $26-28 range. With the improving manufacturing to reduce costs over the coming months, it's likely to be even lower than that by the '08 holiday season with a sub-$20 price in early to mid 2009.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

New numbers in for last week. Blu-ray held 82% of the sales last week, marking their 3rd straight week with a 80%+ share since the Warner move to Blu-ray.

Also, more bad news for HD-DVD as Onyko has said that their first HD-DVD player released last fall will also be their last.

[Synovia]

I don't see losing Onkyo as a big hit (as they're a niche manufacturer, like denon or marantz), but yeah, the fact that onkyo is pulling out is telling.

bought a PS3 last week

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Another blow for HD-DVD. Netflix has decided to go Blu-ray exclusive. With Blockbuster also being BR exclusive, there are few places left to rent HD-DVD movies.

http://www.engadget.com/2008/02/11/n...n-hd-dvd-soon/

Also, MS has further discounted the HD-DVD 360 add-on to $129. I'm not sure why anyone would even buy at that price point considering they'll likely be priced for $50 or less in six months.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm not sure why anyone would even buy at that price point considering they'll likely be priced for $50 or less in six months.

Also, if you pay attention, you can get a Toshiba HD-A3 for like $129, and it will do a much better job upconverting than the 360. Theres no reason whatsover to buy that drive unless they start basically giving it away.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Best Buy has announced that they will be pushing Blu-ray as the format of choice starting in March. I'm assuming the only reason they aren't totally getting rid of HD-DVD is to avoid any bad blood with Toshiba. Expect other major retailers to follow Best Buy's lead in the coming weeks.

[stevew]

The "5 free" deals for Blu Ray are done forever? I had figured as much, but they had come out with a new offer the last time they were supposed to expire.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Boy, that didn't take long. Toshiba Blu-ray player already being developed with a possible July 2008 release date............

http://1080living.com/modules.php?na...article&sid=30

1080living.com has learned through sources in the distribution and retail business that the buzz is Toshiba already has a Blu-Ray player in the works ready for production for a September 08 release but now this has been pushed up to a July 08 release with recent events in the industry.

This would make sense as Toshiba is a major electronics giant and supporting Blu-Ray will only benefit the company in the long run. Toshiba is currently liquidating HD-DVD players for as little as $90.00 which many analyst consider to be under their cost but as demand dries up Toshiba is trying to cash in on last minute consumers that will be swayed by price alone.

One source cited 2 players are in the works with a price target of $250 and $350.00.

[stevew]

Toshiba looking good in preseason.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

More nails in the coffin. Wal-Mart announces they will be dropping all HD-DVD products...........

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9873029-7.html

Rumors continue that Toshiba could pull the plug on HD-DVD in weeks, if not sooner.......

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...1ac47ca5d?pn=1

[Flasch186]

done

[Icy]

The war is finally over, i guess this will also boost the PS3 sales.

[Nwobhm]

Thedigitalbits.com is reporting that Toshiba has a press conference scheduled in a few hours. It's rumoured that it's to announce that they're dropping the HD-DVD format.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents

[Butter]

Confirmed by Toshiba. I always thought Blu-Ray looked like the better technology anyway, so this is actually good news... for when I can afford one of these things in 5 years.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Universal Studios has announced their official switch to Blu-ray..........

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_id=12118

[Vinatieri for Prez]

And in other news, it is being reported that is likely Microsoft will announce some sort of partnership with Netflix where the end game is that XBOX Live will be offering the Netflix catalog for direct to TV download of movies. Provided this gets to HD at some point, my prediction still stands this will start the inexorable march to the end of Blu-Ray at some point in the not to distant future.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

And in other news, it is being reported that is likely Microsoft will announce some sort of partnership with Netflix where the end game is that XBOX Live will be offering the Netflix catalog for direct to TV download of movies. Provided this gets to HD at some point, my prediction still stands this will start the inexorable march to the end of Blu-Ray at some point in the not to distant future.

Not too distant? A blu-ray disk is 50gb. You know how long it takes to download 50gb over your average cable connection?


Its going to be 10 years minimum before your average user can even think about downloading stuff like this. Consumer internet isn't NEARLY fast enough, or cheap enough.

[Daimyo]

The disk is 50GB, but you can fit a full length movie in 15-20GB.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

And in other news, it is being reported that is likely Microsoft will announce some sort of partnership with Netflix where the end game is that XBOX Live will be offering the Netflix catalog for direct to TV download of movies. Provided this gets to HD at some point, my prediction still stands this will start the inexorable march to the end of Blu-Ray at some point in the not to distant future.

Why do you say this? If I download a movie, I pay for it each time I watch. If I buy it, I watch it for years to come.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by rowech

Why do you say this? If I download a movie, I pay for it each time I watch. If I buy it, I watch it for years to come.

Yeah, the rental model will not kill purchases of Blu-Ray disks. There needs to be a reasonable purchase option for downloaded movies to impact Blu-Ray disk sales.

[Groundhog]

I'd much rather have a physical disk than buy a movie that just sits on my HD. Maybe when googolplexbyte hard drives are common that might change, but for now it's just not practical if you have or plan to buy a shit load of movies.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I'd much rather have a physical disk than buy a movie that just sits on my HD. Maybe when googolplexbyte hard drives are common that might change, but for now it's just not practical if you have or plan to buy a shit load of movies.

Well, let's work out the finances here - you can get a 1TB external drive for around $230 (newegg.com); a Blu-Ray disc holds up to 50GB; even if you assume every Blu-Ray release contains enough extras to fill the entire disc (most [none?] don't), that's 20 movies per drive, or about $11 per movie to buy the drive. In reality, most Blu-Ray moves are much smaller, like around 20GB, so that's more like 50 movies per 1TB drive, or less than $5 per movie to buy the drive.

If download options remove the costs of the disc and the associated delivery costs to market, that probably cuts at least $5 off the price of each movie right there. I don't know what they'll do for pricing, but if those pushing download movie purchases are smart, they'll provide some cost incentive.

And obviously the cost of hard drives will continue to drop, which would only improve the math for the download option.

Download times are still an issue, but I suspect many will use options to download movies in the background, when the net connection isn't otherwise in use. I believe Xbox Live already works this way, downloading things at night for users when the box isn't otherwise in use. It's still not a great option when people are buying a lot of movies at once, and it's not as convenient an option for buying movies as gifts for others, but it's not a killer either.

[Groundhog]

Yeah, it works great for some folks, but the majority of people aren't going to want to dick around with hard disks and connecting them up with TVs and such, not until there are cheap and readily available (and easy to use) integrated hardware that does all this for them will this be taken advantage of by anyone except next-gen console owners and the tech-savvy folks that have been buying blu-ray/HD-DVD since their inception, and they make up a small percentage of overall movie sales (or at least they did last time I checked).

[Vinatieri for Prez]

To respond to the critiques of my prediction all at once. By not too distant future, I am still talking about 2, 3, maybe 4-5 years. By then, technology delivery, memory, and download speeds will be where they need to be. Essentially, you will have what everyone already has, a set top box, but it's memory capacity will be huge. It will work much like an IPOD where you can save virtually your entire movie library. You will be able to rent or buy, and it will be a lot cheaper than buying Blu-Ray discs.

My point is that the general public will not be lining up to by Blu-Ray until that same time frame elapses, making Blu-Ray already a dead technology to most.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by rowech

Why do you say this? If I download a movie, I pay for it each time I watch. If I buy it, I watch it for years to come.

I am suggesting the Netflix deal is the first link in the chain on the way to HD download purchases.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I'd much rather have a physical disk than buy a movie that just sits on my HD. Maybe when googolplexbyte hard drives are common that might change, but for now it's just not practical if you have or plan to buy a shit load of movies.

As stated, in the years to come, memory space and dowload speeds will not be an issue.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Yeah, it works great for some folks, but the majority of people aren't going to want to dick around with hard disks and connecting them up with TVs and such, not until there are cheap and readily available (and easy to use) integrated hardware that does all this for them will this be taken advantage of by anyone except next-gen console owners and the tech-savvy folks that have been buying blu-ray/HD-DVD since their inception, and they make up a small percentage of overall movie sales (or at least they did last time I checked).

As stated, a basic set top box will do all of this. But we're still talking several years out.

Blu-Ray will have its day for now, but its death is already on the horizon.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

I am suggesting the Netflix deal is the first link in the chain on the way to HD download purchases.

How are you going to store these things? Maybe I'm not seeing it but I can't see this happening anytime soon.

[Groundhog]

I have no idea about broadband over in the States, but is it really close to the point where downloading 20gig+ on a regular basis (say, a few times a month, if not more) is a reality for a lot of people?

I know that Australia's broadband is a mess compared to the rest of the world, but we really aren't very close to that right now unless something spectacular happens with our major telecoms company, which isn't likely.

[Deattribution]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I have no idea about broadband over in the States, but is it really close to the point where downloading 20gig+ on a regular basis (say, a few times a month, if not more) is a reality for a lot of people?

I know that Australia's broadband is a mess compared to the rest of the world, but we really aren't very close to that right now unless something spectacular happens with our major telecoms company, which isn't likely.

20 gigs is still an insanely big download for just about everyone. I don't see it happening anytime within the next 10 years or more because you're talking about people not only getting whatever hardware they need to store, and download it but also getting the service and the internet to download it. It'll also be too much tech for most people. Why do all that when you can just buy a blu-ray player and whatever movies you want and have them forever like what people are already use to with vcr and dvd without concern of a crash or whatever else?

[Travis]

It amazes me that at first the PS3 (and to an extent the 360) were derided for taking advantage of technology that is being slow to adopt (HDTV's), yet then you hear BR won't last because high def downloads will erase the need for the physical media (even though it'll just end up being a different sort of physical media storage).

Count me in the camp that believes BR will thrive for quite some time due to implementation/adoption of the techs required for downloads to surpass BR in the high def market.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

As stated, a basic set top box will do all of this. But we're still talking several years out.

Blu-Ray will have its day for now, but its death is already on the horizon.

This is how I see it as well. Though I don't think it is all that dramatic of an opinion.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

And in other news, it is being reported that is likely Microsoft will announce some sort of partnership with Netflix where the end game is that XBOX Live will be offering the Netflix catalog for direct to TV download of movies. Provided this gets to HD at some point, my prediction still stands this will start the inexorable march to the end of Blu-Ray at some point in the not to distant future.

FYI.......The Netflix deal is reportedly for both the PS3 and 360, not just the 360. Not sure why you stated that it was just for the 360 (Edit: I see the article you were referring to. Sony is in similar negotiations but has not announced anything yet). Sony has been exploring the option of unlimited movie downloads for a set monthly subscription price with Netflix or Blockbuster since last summer. This isn't new news at all.

[Daimyo]

A lot of you guys are assuming the end user will be responsible for storing their hi-def movie download purchases. With Amazon Unbox once you purchase a video you can download as many times as you want so there is no need to store it... download it, watch it, and delete it. If you want to watch it again in the future, just re-download it. Unfortunately they don't do hi-def yet.

If the Netflix service is anything like it is for PC it won't even be pay per download but subscription based with a set number of hours of video watchable per month (unlimited on the PC right now FWIW).

[Daimyo]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Blu-Ray will have its day for now, but its death is already on the horizon.

Question is how long is the window? Its losing ground from both ends... its not going to overtake DVD anytime soon and the technology to replace it is what 5 years out?

FIOS already offers 50 Mb/s download speeds... I doubt anyone actually gets that sort of throughput in practice, but even if you can get 25 Mb/s that would be fast enough to stream a 20GB, 2 hour movie.... is that sort of bandwidth going to be ubiquitous here in five years like it is now in Japan and South Korea? *shurg*

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

Question is how long is the window? Its losing ground from both ends... its not going to overtake DVD anytime soon and the technology to replace it is what 5 years out?

FIOS already offers 50 Mb/s download speeds... I doubt anyone actually gets that sort of throughput in practice, but even if you can get 25 Mb/s that would be fast enough to stream a 20GB, 2 hour movie.... is that sort of bandwidth going to be ubiquitous here in five years like it is now in Japan and South Korea? *shurg*

I was reading an article that stated over 30 million cable subscribers should have the technology to download HD videos for on demand viewing within the next year and perhaps as many sat subscribers as well.

FIOS definitely seems to be expanding rapidly and I wouldn't be surprised if it covers most of the major markets in 5 years.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I was reading an article that stated over 30 million cable subscribers should have the technology to download HD videos for on demand viewing within the next year and perhaps as many sat subscribers as well.

FIOS definitely seems to be expanding rapidly and I wouldn't be surprised if it covers most of the major markets in 5 years.

Having 30M people with access to that technology and having 30M people that actually use that technology are two totally different things. Mass adoption of HD on-demand at any level that would cause the 'death of Blu-ray' as VFP suggested will likely not occur for at least 10 years, if ever. There's still a vast majority of consumers that believe 'video on demand' should involve walking over to their shelf and inserting a disk into a media player.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Daimyo

The disk is 50GB, but you can fit a full length movie in 15-20GB.

Only the poor quality ones. Watch something like Apocalypto. Its got almost no special features and fills then entire BD50.


I don't know what disks your talking about, but I've got about 15 Blu-Ray movies, and all but one of them are BD-50s (not BD25s). Only "house of flying daggers" is in the 20g range, and thats because they didn't go back to the original master.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Deattribution

20 gigs is still an insanely big download for just about everyone. I don't see it happening anytime within the next 10 years or more because you're talking about people not only getting whatever hardware they need to store, and download it but also getting the service and the internet to download it. It'll also be too much tech for most people. Why do all that when you can just buy a blu-ray player and whatever movies you want and have them forever like what people are already use to with vcr and dvd without concern of a crash or whatever else?

The entire world will need to be rewired with fiber before this sort of stuff is even a possibility. It'll happen, but 10 years is about as soon as you can hope.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I was reading an article that stated over 30 million cable subscribers should have the technology to download HD videos for on demand viewing within the next year and perhaps as many sat subscribers as well.

Theres a big difference between HD on demand, and BluRay/HD-DVD. Theres a HUGE difference between broadcast quality HD and HD-Media (Hd-media has 5+x the bandwith)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Toshiba took a cue from Vinatieri 4 Prez in their latest press release. Evidently they lost hundreds of millions of dollars fully knowing that their HD-DVD format would be short lived due to digital video downloads. In related news, this information comes from the same Toshiba PR division that screamed "All is well! All is well!" for the past year to anyone who would listen.........

http://www.current.com.au/2008/02/20...XGEAZOXNF.html

Blu-ray could still lose HD video war: Toshiba
By Matthew Henry

SYDNEY: Toshiba claims that Sony’s victory in the high definition disc format war will be short lived due to the rise of HD digital video downloads over broadband, which the company claims was one of the key reason for abandoning HD DVD.

In a press conference this morning, Toshiba Australia general manager, Mark Whittard, said that while the US film and retail industries’ recent shift to support Blu-ray sealed HD DVD’s fate, other factors played a role in Toshiba’s abandonment of its high definition video disc business.

Whittard claims the penetration of both next generation disc formats is well below expectations while uptake of digital movie download services is accelerating, and could render HD discs redundant.

“We believe technology developments will soon leapfrog high definition discs, whether it be HD DVD or Blu-ray,” he claimed.

“This step is going to be leapfrogged by the next major format – digital content, internet downloads and video on demand.”

Whittard also identified DVD as a formidable competitor to Blu-ray.

According to figures quoted by Toshiba, total sales of HD movie discs reached a paltry $300 million last year compared to sales of over $23 billion for DVD discs.

Whittard claims Blu-ray will find it difficult to replace DVD in the same way DVD comprehensively replaced VHS.

Toshiba sold less than one million HD DVD players worldwide, and while Blu-ray has achieved higher penetration with the PS3, Whittard claims DVD will be “extremely difficult” for Blu-ray to overcome.

“DVD players still sell in their tens of millions worldwide today,” he said.

“DVD upscaling technology means you get near high definition quality, and to most people there is little discernable difference.”

However, while Toshiba is now moving towards a business model which will see it place more emphasis on other HD video delivery platforms, it has not ruled out joining the Blu-ray camp.

“You never say never, but at this stage there are no plans,” he said.

Toshiba's HD DVD players also have the potential for internet connectivity which gives them the potential to accept HD video streaming over ethernet connectivity, which could be utilised by the company in the future.

[rowech]

Does one think this will be believed by the public? Why would you spend millions in a format you knew was going to not be important? Come on.

[cartman]

Reading the article, it seems that the future digital download possibility might have been one of the reasons to include network connectivity in the HD-DVD spec.

The final line of the article:

Toshiba's HD DVD players also have the potential for internet connectivity which gives them the potential to accept HD video streaming over ethernet connectivity, which could be utilised by the company in the future.

[Synovia]

Originally Posted by cartman

Reading the article, it seems that the future digital download possibility might have been one of the reasons to include network connectivity in the HD-DVD spec.

The final line of the article:

Theres a huge difference between having internet connectivity and being able to play streamed media.

ALL of the HD-DVD players I've seen (and blu ray as well, barring the PS3/X360) don't have enough memory to do this.

Thats the writer speculating about technology he doesn't understand.