2008 Financials Thread

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Monday April 7, 2008

Interesting day today, as the markets jumped big early in the day but the gains started eroding in the mid-afternoon.

The TSX still ended up for a 6th consecutive day, rising 76.82 points (+0.56%). My portfolio fared well too, rising 1.03% on the day.

I moved half my shares in Agrium (AGU - TSX) today for $72.13/share, a nice return on my dollar cost averaged price of $64.07.

I was close to moving two thirds of my holdings in Quadra Mining (QUA - TSX) but literally missed my limit sell price by a nickel. Damn! It's been a long road to profitability on that holding (I've held it for five months) and I'm close to getting my requisite 10% return after commissions.

I certainly expect some softening in the market and with over 50% of my money in cash right now, I'm ready to pounce should any values pop up.

I'm completely out of Potash right now (POT - TSX) and would love to get back in should the price fall back into the 160's.

[Flasch186]

i was out of town all day and missed everything. sorry.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Tuesday April 8, 2008

The crazy winning streak of mine continues despite the decline of the Toronto index.

The TSX dropped a modest 17.48 points (-0.13%) but my portfolio ended up 0.74%. This is the 6th consecutive day it increased and even more incredibly, my portfolio has increased in 12 of the last 13 sessions. Just running very hot right now behind the strong commodity and agricultural prices.

I was able to sell off 2/3 of my holdings in Quadra Mining Tuesday for $21.87/share. I bought this stock on November 2, 2007 so it was a 5 month hold, as the share price dwindled from my purchase price of $19.45/share down to $15.29 at one point. I made close to 11% on the sale, after commissions so I'm satisfied. I kept back some shares just in case the price continues to increase and will likely offload the rest if the share price eclipses $23/share.

This is going to sound very strange, but I really hope the market drops over the next couple days. I'm in a heavy cash position and would like to find a re-entry point in some holdings, specifically Potash, which continues to soar on a daily basis.

[Flasch186]

Well the downward pressure actually showed up like I thought it would. One surprising thing is Circuit City posted a Quarterly profit 8) UPS has warned and I expect more warnings over the next wk. What will be interesting on the horizon is when the bank begin reporting. That might actually be a catalyst for another mini-rally after this wks. pullback.

[NoSkillz]

Belated Post-Mortem: Wednesday April 9 & Thursday April 10, 2008

Not much happening right now for me, unfortunately, as I continue to look for opportunities to get more money in the market.

Wednesday saw the TSX increase a modest 23.02 points (+0.17%) while my portfolio actually dropped for the first time in seven sessions, falling 0.31%.

I was up on Thursday but again, lagged slightly behind the market index. The TSX was up a healthy 159.03 points (+1.16%) while my portfolio increased 0.82%.

I'm going to start doing some research on Apple and will continue to be patient, waiting for the right price point on stocks such as Research in Motion, Potash, Agnico-Eagle Mines, Baytex Energy Trust and others.

[Flasch186]

GE earnings and outlook are killing the market today (outside of commodities) so it seems my prediction may be right because I have no $ involved. the minute I do im contra-flasch will kick in, in full force.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Friday April 11, 2008

Finally, some movement in the market!!! It's exciting for me even when it goes down hard, like it did today.

I made three moves today:

I sold off half my remaining shares in Agrium (AGU - TSX) for $75.11, a great price for me as it eclipsed the 52-week high. The stock would peak at $75.20 and fall back into the $73's by the end of the day. I made about 12% on this sale.

I bought back into Research in Motion (RIM - TSX) at $118.41 and it would close the day slightly higher at $118.76.

Finally, I made my first venture into Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ) and my first purchase in the US Market too. I got in at $148.04 and had another order in around $146 that didn't get filled. The share price closed at $147.14.

With the exception of my small gain on RIM, I was down on every holding today. My portfolio fell 1.08% overall, a figure that's somewhat inflated due to my currency exchange loss on the AAPL purchase.

Still, I did better than the market, as the TSX fell 226.55 points (-1.63%).

Overall, it was a quiet but profitable week for yours truly:

WEEK OF APRIL 7-11
TSX: +0.11%
My Portfolio: +1.20%

2008 YEAR TO DATE
TSX: -1.11%
My Portfolio: +11.88%

[Flasch186]

ewwww, dipped the toe into the DAQ before next week. Dont listen to me but I think will see a ton of pressure on the Tech sector as it has been on quite the tear thus when the negative sentiment starts to unfurl next week the tech sector will bear down. soooooo, you should probably buy more

[MikeVic]

Bah. I opened an etrade account so that I could use it as a savings account while I look into stocks and such. I checked today, and the interest rate is down from 4.15% to 3.55%. Not a horrible drop, but I liked that it was over 4% for sure.

[Flasch186]

That's a good rate over 4.

Ive been pretty quiet lately just keeping an eye on things as I watch and sense the downward pressure. I heard on the tube today, for the first time in a while, someone mention a retest of some support levels for the S&P. Should be a volatile week. I may get in next week but dont anticipate getting into anything until the end of the week.

[MikeVic]

Oh, I meant the rate is now 3.55%. It was 4.15% when I signed up, but now it's dropped.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Monday April 14, 2008

Quite a busy day for me in the market, as commodities continue to soar, especially the agricultural market. There are a lot of people who are missing out on this freight train and it's a damn shame.

Potash and Agrium continue to hit new 52 week highs on an almost daily basis. I've never seen anything like it and I'm telling you now like I told you over a month ago, it's not going to stop anytime soon. Fertilizer pricing continues to rise on incredible demand and these companies are going to see their market caps continue to shoot up.

That being said, I decided to take a rather excellent overall profit and sell off my remaining shares of Agrium today, with the hope of seeing a short-term drop in the next week or so in order to buy back in at a lower price. I sold the shares at $77.12 while my dollar cost average on the holdings was around $66/share. I held the shares for about three and a half weeks.

I also took advantage of Quadra Mining hitting a new 52 week high by selling off my remaining shares for $23.03/share. I made about 15% on this transaction, after commissions and held these shares for a little over five months.

I then dipped back into the market, doubling up on my shares in Apple (AAPL - NASDAQ) when it fell a few dollars below my purchase price from Friday. I got today's allotment at $144.84/share and watched the price end up closing at $147.78.

Overall, I was down marginally today due to the technicality of the currency exchange on my Apple purchase. I don't factor in the difference in currency on my personal spreadsheets I keep with my portfolio so things won't really even out in that respect until I actually sell the holding.

I ended the day down 0.24% while the TSX was up 55.57 points (+0.41%).

Right now, I still have about 40% of my portfolio in cash, looking for values. Stocks I'll be keeping a close eye on in the next few days include:

Apple - will top up with more shares if the price falls below $142
Research in Motion - may double up if the price gets around $115
Agnico Eagle Mines - an attactive gold play should the price drop down to about $69-$70/share
Potash/Agrium - If either of these stocks falls about 5-10% below their 52 week highs, I'll jump back in...right now, they are maxed out and I continue to wait for the inevitable huge one-day drop

I could also see myself getting back into Quadra if it drops below $21.00.

At the moment, I'm only holding shares in eight companies - I like to have up to ten at one time so I may start doing some research on other companies, most likely in the energy category.

[Flasch186]

I must admit Im blown away by that Ag train. I could see getting in after a monster drop but also look to get into Apple if it gets into the 120's. Keep in mind I expect massive pressure on the market within the next few weeks.

[Flasch186]

April 16

Well earnings havnt been as bad as I anticipated as Coke (KO) beats theirs and Intel (INTC) meets theirs. IBM and EBAY report after the bell and should they meet or beat we should see this rally continue into the end of the week. JPMorgan also weren't even close to being as bad as some anticipated so all in all people are fairly upbeat coming through this hurdle.

The inflation numbers were tamer than what couldve been but people are beginning to think that we may be near the end of rate cuts. this will mean upward pressure on rates for a while.

Housing numbers = terrible and foreclosure numbers = terrible so unless the gov't doesnt something sooner rather than later (which I thought they wouldve) it may be too little too late and the psychological damage done will be irreversible outside of simple time.

Right now markets are soaring and there doesnt seem like anything will change that until after the bell and tomorrow's Google (GOOG) earnings. A beat and we should see a big lift next week.

Crazy that just 2 days ago I was hearing "retest".

[Flasch186]

both IBM and EBAY beat their estimates thus further fueling the rally through the week. One would say that this is occurring because I am mostly sidelined right now outside of my long holdings (CSCO & XLF). I will get in at just the right moment to tank the markets.

[NoSkillz]

Post-Mortem: Tuesday April 15 & Wednesday April 16, 2008

I had a pretty quiet day yesterday, as I continued to try to find an entry point on Potash and Agrium. Neither fell to the number I had in mind so I was just an observer Tuesday.

My portfolio increased 0.27% on Tuesday, falling below the TSX gain of 112.35 points (+0.82%).

Today was a banner day in the markets and again it was led by commodities. Agrium and Potash both exploded on news that the Chinese government was allowing a $400/metric ton increase on Potash for the coming year. Agrium was up 7.7% today alone while Potash increased 5.5%.

I'm holding neither right now.

It is truly incredible how much these two stocks have gained over the past month or so. I actually contemplated putting in an order for Potash at $195/share but held strong - there just HAS to be a down day for these holdings soon...right?

I did make one purchase today, picking up some shares in Baytex Energy Trust (BTE.UN - TSX) for $24.59/share. The stock closed the day at $24.74 but most importantly, this stock pays a 10-11% dividend that I'll be collecting for awhile. I see this as a long-term type hold unless the share price continues to skyrocket and will add to my holdings if the price happens to fall.

It was a solid day for me today. My portfolio jumped 1.92% while the TSX gained 248.53 points (+1.79%).

Uranium One jumped $0.42/share today (+9.88%), Teck Cominco was up $1.43 (+3.08%), First Quantum increased $4.11 (+4.57%), HudBay Minerals jumped $0.75/share (+4.49%), Apple was up $5.32 (+3.59%) and Research in Motion increased $2.19 (+1.86%).

March Networks also increased marginally while my only red figure came from MGM Energy, which fell one penny.

I will continue to try to find an entry point to POT and AGU but refuse to buy when the stock is soaring - that's usually a recipe for disaster. I'm also very bullish on gold right now and will continue to look at Agnico-Eagle Mining (AEM - TSX), my favourite bullion play.

[Flasch186]

gold? Even when it seems that they are on the edge of being unable to cut rates? interesting....obviously Im wrong in my assumption that the top on gold is coming as the dollar will strengthen a bit at some point.

Ive missed out entirely on the ag boom and parabolic moves scare me.

[MikeVic]

Another question about housing, etc... if you were to go for a mortgage, would you just go to your main bank? A co-worker mentioned that he doesn't see anything wrong with this, but I'm thinking I should seek some 3rd party that doesn't just try to get me with their bank?

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

gold? Even when it seems that they are on the edge of being unable to cut rates? interesting....obviously Im wrong in my assumption that the top on gold is coming as the dollar will strengthen a bit at some point.

Ive missed out entirely on the ag boom and parabolic moves scare me.

Well, like most things, we share different philosophies

Gold is one of the preferred plays when people are afraid of investing in equities, similar to bonds in some respects, at least in my opinion.

You haven't heard the last from Gold, mark my words. It will eclipse the one thousand mark again soon and go beyond...perhaps far beyond.

And oh yeah...you haven't completely missed the Ag boom...it's still not over!

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Another question about housing, etc... if you were to go for a mortgage, would you just go to your main bank? A co-worker mentioned that he doesn't see anything wrong with this, but I'm thinking I should seek some 3rd party that doesn't just try to get me with their bank?

Simple answer here but like anything else, I'd go to at least three different places looking for rates. Always negotiate...these people WANT your money...make them earn it!

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Another question about housing, etc... if you were to go for a mortgage, would you just go to your main bank? A co-worker mentioned that he doesn't see anything wrong with this, but I'm thinking I should seek some 3rd party that doesn't just try to get me with their bank?

Two comments:

- If you go through a 3rd party you'll probably get a better rate in the end.

- Your own bank will likely be more willing to work with you if issues crop up during the sale. For example, my brother shopped around and got a better rate than his normal bank. But because they weren't putting down more than 25% (I think) the CMHC automatically becomes involved, and they said the house wasn't worth what the offer was and that they wouldn't back the mortgage. The cheaper mortgage place just dropped them upon hearing this. My brother went back to his bank and they worked with him to somehow resolve the issue and they got to buy the house. A few years later and the thing is worth twice what they paid.

[Flasch186]

April 17

Seems that the market is under some pressure after yesterdays runup. The markets are really reacting to all of the earnings on a daily basis and forgetting about the overall picture. The jobless numbers were higher, 372K but less than the 400K benchmark people are proclaiming needs to happen for a true meltdown of a recession.

Today may be a decent entrypoint on some stocks for a short term play if we can get another runup next week. This is scary however in that GOOGle and Citi report after and before the bells.

I'll wait until noon to see if there is a play on a stock I like. Still look back and wish I;d gotten into Gamestop (GME) under 50 which I pegged as a like.

so fair warning to all....I may be buying a stock today at some point.

[Flasch186]

after taking a look at some of the stocks on my list I may dip a toe into a small speculative play on E-Trade (ETFC). It's just at it's support level outside of the Jan. 22nd crash Should it hold that level it may bounce up to its moving average or higher as it is now touching close to that lower support. At 3.33 it seems it could be an acquisition target as well as we get through earnings season.

[Flasch186]

alright, based on TD Ameritrade's huge profit rise and E-trade's reporting after the bell I have moved into Etrade. Only planning on holding for a short period of time as Im still quite nervous about a market wide sell off at some point soon.

[MikeVic]

If my damn account was open (I apparently forgot to include a void cheque, hence the long wait time haha), I would go into etrade too. It seems to go up and down a ton, and right now seems to be a pretty big down considering I wanted to buy at 3.50.

As for mortgages, did you guys just set up meetings at multiple banks? Or how does shopping for a mortgage rate work?

[Flasch186]

Call Countrywide, Wells Fargo, Eloan (online), local bank, credit union (if youre a member of one that has mortgages and tell them what youre looking for)...

be up front that youre shopping a bunch and have no loyalties. Be sure to compare apples to apples, many times someone will quote a lower rate but higher fees and vice versa. Also look out for a lender quoting you a monthly payment with a bad escrow estimate...its a common trick some use to entice you into a loan and then when youre loan readjusts in a year to the correct amount youre payment will go up substantially to make up for the escrow shortfall.

[MikeVic]

Countrywide and Wells Fargo... wouldn't those be U.S. things?

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Countrywide and Wells Fargo... wouldn't those be U.S. things?

oh, well yeah. so look at whatever is comparable.....my point is get some "big" guys, medium guys, and small guys into the competition.

[Flasch186]

BTW Google's (GOOG) earnings report is scaring the crap outta me.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

alright, based on TD Ameritrade's huge profit rise and E-trade's reporting after the bell I have moved into Etrade. Only planning on holding for a short period of time as Im still quite nervous about a market wide sell off at some point soon.

Personally I'm scared of E-Trade, its a great training platform - but they have huge mortgage liabilities .... which I think might offset any good news from elsewhere.

(also bear in mind that despite the profits TD Ameritrade is actually trading down on the forward projections being less than the market had hoped for ....)

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Personally I'm scared of E-Trade, its a great training platform - but they have huge mortgage liabilities .... which I think might offset any good news from elsewhere.

(also bear in mind that despite the profits TD Ameritrade is actually trading down on the forward projections being less than the market had hoped for ....)

Well if you look at their charts there is more upside risk than downside, in a vacuum. I am hoping that their writedowns wont be enormous as they didnt pre-warn and their liabilities will be manageable at the announcement. A .40 to .50 gain and Im out. I think ETFC is on the bottom side of that trade already and TD is on the otherside of it. ETFC was beaten to crap so the reaction to the same report would be up (i think).....(however everyone should short ETFC, if Im doing this )

To bolster your stance, im nervous about any entry right now.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

BTW Google's (GOOG) earnings report is scaring the crap outta me.

I'm expecting a miss - followed by a huge drop and the chance to buy into Google myself ..

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

To bolster your stance, im nervous about any entry right now.

Any stock with a big short interest of 20% which has been rising in recent months scares me to be honest - I like nice safe happy stocks ... preferably far from the financial market at present

[Flasch186]

BTW ETFC has resistance at ~$3.70 first than ~$4.25 so even a .30 - .75 move could easily run into a ceiling.

as of right now Im up a bit today going into the earnings but based on what you stated it may very well be some short covering heading in.

[Flasch186]

holy shite, its off to the races.

[Flasch186]

mmmk, ETrade is up almost 9% before the bell so the question becomes...

is it pricing in a meet/exceed on their earnings and anything will cause a drop afterwards? I could sell even now and make a huge profit and avoid the variable entirely. hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

mmmk, ETrade is up almost 9% before the bell so the question becomes...

is it pricing in a meet/exceed on their earnings and anything will cause a drop afterwards? I could sell even now and make a huge profit and avoid the variable entirely. hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Good luck which ever decision you make - you're a braver man than me

Me I've dipped into Nokia (NOK) - its shares dropped 15% - but its still done well imho and has good growth prospects in the emerging markets going forward, on that basis I reckon the drop has been over harsh and it'll recover the majority of that drop in the next month.

I'd be interested in your opinion of TGC INDS INC COM NEW (TGE) - Its in Oil so is a trendy stock at the moment, its posted a dividend so I'm guessing the quarters revenues must be good - opinions?

[Flasch186]

contra-flasch is sleeping today apparently.

[Kodos]

Well -- Contra Flasch has been working pretty hard lately. It deserves a break.

[Flasch186]

Alright well I sold ALL of my shares just before the bell so im sure it'll soar.

the reason being it was just too much on the table when it, that profit, just paid for my 1 yr. anniversary with my wife.

[Flasch186]

well that worked out. ETFC is way down after hours, lower than i even bought it this morning.

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

well that worked out. ETFC is way down after hours, lower than i even bought it this morning.

Smart man...take your profit and run.

Glad you had a good decision-making day...I was starting to worry that you're investment batting average was dragging into Mario Mendoza territory

[Flasch186]

etfc is back up to where I sold it, and seeming to want to "pop". Thats ok....im happy.

[Flasch186]

I'd love to say in hindsight, "I shouldve kept Google" but in all honesty heading into today's earnings I likely wouldve sold that too due to the pressure. I cant complain about today as ETFC sits at where I sold it and I was able to pay for the anniversary. That makes me happy (although my wife's turmoil at work [she works at the same job i do] is causing me a headache today).

Google is at $530/share after hours which is ridiculous!! Im fairly certain this will be followed up by price target changes over the next few weeks and upgrades. this could be the start of a nice Nasdaq rally, again, on the heels of the last one.

EDIT to add: ETFC is moving quite a bit after hours. I've missed out on a massive upward tick here but what can you do.

[Marc Vaughan]

E-Trade
The company swung to a net loss of $91.2 million, or 20 cents a share, compared with net income of $169.4 million, or 39 cents a share, a year earlier. Credit market losses and reorganization costs took $35 million, or 5 cents a share, off results in the latest period, E-Trade (ETFC) noted.

The company was expected to lose 10 cents a share, according to 14 analysts polled by Thomson Financial

Not quite sure how a loss of 20 cents - double what was expected has caused a 10% bump .... expecting this to come down to earth again in the near future.

[Flasch186]

no shit!!!

I was so pissed when I read the report, turned to their AH trades and saw it settling up high. F'n crap.

oh, Shoulda held Google LOL

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

Not quite sure how a loss of 20 cents - double what was expected has caused a 10% bump .... expecting this to come down to earth again in the near future.

(yes I know quoting myself is sad)

Anyway been thinking on this last night - would you agree likely cause is people who'd shorted the stock covering themselves because they believe the loss indicates that its likely E-Trade have the mortgage debacle underwraps and thus will return to profitability in the coming quarters? ..

If so this stock could concievably rise a lot more - there are a lot of short players in it and if they panic to cover on its bouncing then it'll cover a fair bit of ground imho.

On the other hand - the big players might drive it back into the floor again, I have no way of knowing thats why I decided to steer clear.

(I'm asking because as I've indicated before I'm very new to this whole area and want to learn from people more experienced than myself - preferably without losing money while doing so ... hence caution being my watchword )

[NoSkillz]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

(yes I know quoting myself is sad)

Anyway been thinking on this last night - would you agree likely cause is people who'd shorted the stock covering themselves because they believe the loss indicates that its likely E-Trade have the mortgage debacle underwraps and thus will return to profitability in the coming quarters? ..

If so this stock could concievably rise a lot more - there are a lot of short players in it and if they panic to cover on its bouncing then it'll cover a fair bit of ground imho.

On the other hand - the big players might drive it back into the floor again, I have no way of knowing thats why I decided to steer clear.

(I'm asking because as I've indicated before I'm very new to this whole area and want to learn from people more experienced than myself - preferably without losing money while doing so ... hence caution being my watchword )

This is purely just an opinion, so take it for what it's worth but I strongly believe that the majority of investors play things straight as opposed to shorting. Therefore, I chalk this bump up to the fact that perhaps investors are interpreting the earnings report differently than most would expect (ie: they are out of the woods now and things look better going forward).

I personally would stay far, far away from this stock...just too risky considering the problems Marc has stated in previous posts.

[NoSkillz]

Belated Post-Mortem: Thursday April 17, 2008

Yesterday was a beautiful day! The sun was out, the temperatures crept close to 70 degrees here in Southern Ontario and I was able to find my entry point into Potash once again

After TWELVE consecutive days of gains, Potash finally dropped yesterday, falling as much as six dollars before recovering near the end of the session. I made two separate purchases of Potash, with my dollar cost average sitting at $198.10. The stock closed slightly lower at $196.88 but I strongly believe the share price will hit $210 by the middle of next week at the latest. Potash reports on Thursday next week and earnings should be stellar.

Not much else happened but getting back into Potash was good enough! I ended the day down slightly, dropping 0.35% while the TSX continues to roll along, increasing a smidge (+0.11%).

Today looks to be very interesting. After Google's excellent earnings report, most of tech will likely draft along right behind it. I will look to take profits if they come on Research in Motion (target sell price is around $123.80-$124) and continue to watch my Apple shares soar (hopefully). Still no chance of me moving out of Apple until their earnings release, coming Wednesday next week. I expect a good report and won't be surprised to see Apple hit $165-$170.

I'm also going to look at moving out of First Quantum Minerals and taking an excellent profit there as well (12-15%). My target is $95.50 or so there.

I'll be watching Agnico Eagle Mining closely today. Gold prices dropped substantially in early trading today so there is a chance I'll find an entry point. However, the stock is overvalued at the moment and will need to drop close to $5/share for me to be interested.

I'll also keep watching Potash and Agrium and look for opportunities to buy more agriculture.

[MikeVic]

Quick question... what was the general rule of thumb for mortgages again... I know I read it from a link I got from FOFC, or someone on FOFC said it. But wasn't it no more than 1/3 of your monthly salary (before taxes)?