Are you guys seeing a lot of comeback wins in the 4th since you patch to FOF 5.1d?

jbmagic · 08-13-2005, 05:49 PM

Are you guys seeing a lot of comeback wins in the 4th quarter since you patch to FOF 5.1d?

solo play and multiplayer.

in NAFL we have seen a lot more than usual since we patch to 5.1d for this season

yabanci · 08-13-2005, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbmagic

in NAFL we have seen a lot more than usual since we patch to 5.1d for this season

Do you have the numbers to back this up or is it just anecdotal?

Joe · 08-13-2005, 08:21 PM

i've seen alot in many MP leagues, but I don't think its any more prevalent with the patch. I have no numbers to show anything, but AFAIK, its been an issue for a while.

gstelmack · 08-13-2005, 08:25 PM

Actually, I may back this up. What I've seen is a lot more games with teams exchanging multiple TD drives in the final 2 minutes. For example: http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~fof/foru...ad.php?t=41038

I've seen more than just that, including a playoff game where my opponent drove 69 yards, we stalled, he pushed it in again, we went 80 yards, all in the final 2 minutes. It's almost like the 4th-quarter-comeback QB bump got out of hand.

I can't say for certain that it's worse than in the past, but I don't remember noticing it before. Of course, I've got game logs for the entire MP league, so maybe I'll do some scanning and see...

Cuckoo · 08-13-2005, 08:42 PM

I have no evidence (especially as far as there being a significant change), but it does seem to many people in the league that the comebacks and 4th quarter scoring have increased. I don't remember noticing it before, and I do recaps of every game simmed in the league.

WrongWay · 08-13-2005, 08:57 PM

I think it has always been there. Either at the end of the half or the end of the game the QB's always seem to be able to hit the "Big" pass to score.

But, in FOF's defense, how many times in the NFL have you seen a team switch to their no-huddle offense and drive right down the field?

Solecismic · 08-13-2005, 11:10 PM

Nope. No comeback code in the game. No changes whatsoever to the engine in 5.1d. Sorry to disappoint.

Flasch186 · 08-13-2005, 11:27 PM

and the conspiracy thickens...

no comeback code, perhaps but whatabout minute code? a rating is certainly represented in QBs so perhaps it s not a code thing!!! but a physics engine thing!!!

CraigSca · 08-14-2005, 06:57 AM

I've noticed a great many 4th quarter comebacks in FOF, but since I have no NFL data to look at regarding this topic, it's impossible for me to say whether there's too many comebacks or not enough.

If someone's willing to put together this data, more power to them.

gstelmack · 08-14-2005, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Nope. No comeback code in the game. No changes whatsoever to the engine in 5.1d. Sorry to disappoint.

http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showpost.php?p=324746&postcount=7

Here you talk about a small bump to QB stats for QBs with high numbers of 4th quarter comebacks. It is supposed to be slight, but that's where my response came from: maybe a tiny bug magnified the effect? Anyway, I'll have hard numbers shortly.

Edit: Here are the promised hard numbers:

This data is from my office league, started shortly after FOF2k4 was released and is through the 2008 season (so, 6 seasons of games). Games are in chronoligical order, so 5.0 on the left, 5.1d on the right.

From this, I conclude two things:

1) There has been no noticable increase in late-game scoring with the current patch. It's about the same as it always has been.

2) Based on the thread I quoted earlier, every time a patch is released, someone thinks 4th-quarter comebacks have increased

If anyone wants the raw data, http://www.gstelmack.com/fof/scores.csv

Solecismic · 08-14-2005, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Here you talk about a small bump to QB stats for QBs with high numbers of 4th quarter comebacks. It is supposed to be slight, but that's where my response came from: maybe a tiny bug magnified the effect?

I checked that code, it's pretty simple, no bug there. I don't want to give details about algorithms, but the boost maxes out at a level that might make a 55 QB perform like a 58 QB. And that's assuming he has a large number of career comebacks.

What I'm specifically referring to is that there is no code that automatically ratchets up scoring late in a half or in the game. I suppose the above could qualify, but that's specific, not arbitrary. And documented. There are very similar documented tiny boosts based on the head coach's motivation ratings.

If analyzing the data, it's important to factor in changed play-calling when a team is behind late in the game. There will be more downfield passing.

Cuckoo · 08-14-2005, 11:03 AM

Thanks for the clarification, Jim, as it will undoubtedly put a few minds at ease in my league.

gstelmack · 08-14-2005, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If analyzing the data, it's important to factor in changed play-calling when a team is behind late in the game. There will be more downfield passing.

I think the key lies in the data I posted earlier. There simply isn't some magical increase in late-game scoring with the latest patch. That graph (at least to my non-statistics-trained mind) doesn't appear to show any real change in 4th-quarter scoring with ANY of the patches, it just stays pretty consistent.

CraigSca · 08-14-2005, 11:17 AM

True, but it also doesn't show if there's a delta between RL football performance and FOF's version when it comes to late game comebacks. Again, I'm not saying there is one, but without real NFL data we'll never know.

You're right, however, that your data does show there's been no change since day one of FOF.

gstelmack · 08-14-2005, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CraigSca

True, but it also doesn't show if there's a delta between RL football performance and FOF's version when it comes to late game comebacks. Again, I'm not saying there is one, but without real NFL data we'll never know.

You're right, however, that your data does show there's been no change since day one of FOF.

Here's a start:

http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~fof/foru...ad.php?t=34793

It wouldn't be too hard if someone had the time to do a comparison. All I did was interrogate the log files for how often a team scored in the 4th quarter (type of score did not matter, just that a score was generated, by looking for the "Score:" lines in the log), and how often they scored in the final two minutes. Someone could run a similar routine against NFL game logs. NFL.com keeps these, correct?

08-13-2005, 08:25 PM	#4
gstelmack Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Cary, NC	Actually, I may back this up. What I've seen is a lot more games with teams exchanging multiple TD drives in the final 2 minutes. For example: http://dynamic.gamespy.com/~fof/foru...ad.php?t=41038 I've seen more than just that, including a playoff game where my opponent drove 69 yards, we stalled, he pushed it in again, we went 80 yards, all in the final 2 minutes. It's almost like the 4th-quarter-comeback QB bump got out of hand. I can't say for certain that it's worse than in the past, but I don't remember noticing it before. Of course, I've got game logs for the entire MP league, so maybe I'll do some scanning and see... __________________ -- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities

08-13-2005, 08:42 PM	#5
Cuckoo College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Edmond, OK	I have no evidence (especially as far as there being a significant change), but it does seem to many people in the league that the comebacks and 4th quarter scoring have increased. I don't remember noticing it before, and I do recaps of every game simmed in the league. __________________ Commissioner - North American Football League Dallas Cowboys GM

08-13-2005, 11:27 PM	#8
Flasch186 Coordinator Join Date: May 2002 Location: Jacksonville, FL	and the conspiracy thickens... no comeback code, perhaps but whatabout minute code? a rating is certainly represented in QBs so perhaps it s not a code thing!!! but a physics engine thing!!! __________________ Jacksonville-florida-homes-for-sale Putting a New Spin on Real Estate! ----------------------------------------------------------- Commissioner of the USFL USFL

08-14-2005, 06:57 AM	#9
CraigSca Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Not Delaware - hurray!	I've noticed a great many 4th quarter comebacks in FOF, but since I have no NFL data to look at regarding this topic, it's impossible for me to say whether there's too many comebacks or not enough. If someone's willing to put together this data, more power to them. __________________ She loves you, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah! She loves you, yeah! how do you know? how do you know?

08-14-2005, 11:03 AM	#12
Cuckoo College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Edmond, OK	Thanks for the clarification, Jim, as it will undoubtedly put a few minds at ease in my league. __________________ Commissioner - North American Football League Dallas Cowboys GM

08-13-2005, 08:21 PM	#3
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	i've seen alot in many MP leagues, but I don't think its any more prevalent with the patch. I have no numbers to show anything, but AFAIK, its been an issue for a while.

08-13-2005, 08:57 PM	#6
WrongWay Banned Join Date: Jan 2005	I think it has always been there. Either at the end of the half or the end of the game the QB's always seem to be able to hit the "Big" pass to score. But, in FOF's defense, how many times in the NFL have you seen a team switch to their no-huddle offense and drive right down the field?

08-13-2005, 11:10 PM	#7
Solecismic Solecismic Software Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Canton, OH	Nope. No comeback code in the game. No changes whatsoever to the engine in 5.1d. Sorry to disappoint.

08-14-2005, 11:17 AM	#14
CraigSca Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Not Delaware - hurray!	True, but it also doesn't show if there's a delta between RL football performance and FOF's version when it comes to late game comebacks. Again, I'm not saying there is one, but without real NFL data we'll never know. You're right, however, that your data does show there's been no change since day one of FOF. __________________ She loves you, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah! She loves you, yeah! how do you know? how do you know?

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