To our French citizens...

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

there was an overwhelming, unexpected big loss for the European constitution with 38.4% pro and 61.6% against.

Unexpected? It was polling this way for weeks...

While this constitution vote was probably doomed to failure (this vote probably would have gone a little better for the constitution supporters if the vote took place before the eastern European expansion), I doubt this is really going to stop the drive to further integration. The EU has shown a tendency to ignore national referenda in the past...

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Klinglerware

Unexpected? It was polling this way for weeks...

While this constitution vote was probably doomed to failure (this vote probably would have gone a little better for the constitution supporters if the vote took place before the eastern European expansion), I doubt this is really going to stop the drive to further integration. The EU has shown a tendency to ignore national referenda in the past...

Now tell me, who's living in the Netherlands here? Unexpected overwhelming victory for 'against' it is.

Seriously, the reliable polls were (as if they exist in times of subjective media) were pointing to a close race. 62-38 was higher than anticipated, with the turnout far above 50, there were more people against than people who didn't vote, I still call it unexpected big.

That European constitution will get there one way or another pretty soon, but as I said, the timing of the referendum was very bad in the Netherlands. Faith in politics is at an all-time low, we found out we were screwed by getting the Euro only a month ago and we were told we're contributing the most per head of the country to the EU. Those are not the reasons I voted against, but it really matters. Reason or not, having had this before the expansion to 25 could have helped, but not much. The power of the big5 (Poland is new) would have been even bigger and that wouldn't have helped to get a 'yes' from the dutch, 'we' don't want to be ruled by the French, Germans and the UK.

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Now tell me, who's living in the Netherlands here? Unexpected overwhelming victory for 'against' it is.

Seriously, the reliable polls were (as if they exist in times of subjective media) were pointing to a close race. 62-38 was higher than anticipated, with the turnout far above 50, there were more people against than people who didn't vote, I still call it unexpected big.

I meant no disrespect, MIJB. I made the claim that it wasn't unexpected since the polling in the weeks prior to the vote showed a 20 point spread, consistent with the final vote...

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Klinglerware

I meant no disrespect, MIJB. I made the claim that it wasn't unexpected since the polling in the weeks prior to the vote showed a 20 point spread, consistent with the final vote...

No problem, I exaggerated a little bit, but it was supposed to go by with an eye-wink. Maybe I should have stated that the unexpected part of the entire event was probably that the obscure polling bureaus were dead-on with the final voting results.

'No' winning was the consensus for weeks indeed, but I actually had belief that the political figures would be able to talk the majority into a 'yes' vote. The simply didn't act until the polls were 60-40 like and it turned into a hopeless race against time, with just about 10 days to go to win the people over. Even a historical coalition of the Labour-Christian Democrates-Liberals and the next two biggest parties couldn't safe the EU constition. And now they know they're screwed as the turnout was very big and this calls for more referenda on very important issues in the future.

[judicial clerk]

This is quite fascinating. I have not been paying much attention to all of this, but I will do so now. Some thoughts:

-I don't think a united Europe will ever be the same as the USA (or China) and it shouldn't be expected. The entities are created under completely different processes and with completely different histories. I see the EU evolving into something stronger than the UN and about as powerful as the Confederate States of America central government, but never with a central government as strong as in the USA.

-If I were one of the smaller countries, I would hold out and block centralization of power until I got all the concessions I could from the bigger players, because every bit of power and control you give up to the EU is going to be lost forever. I would demand a split of power based on state (and not population) that goes way further than the US federal government's bicameral legislature. It seems so crazy to think that the Dutch (or whoever) are going to have to do what France and Germany tell them to do.

-I think taking a slow and cautious approach to this type of change is the better way to go. Is there a reason that European countries need to centralize governmental authority in the near future? I can't think of any. Wanting to be a superpower like the USA sound like a horrible, prideful reason. Take your time and let the US carry the water.

-All of this is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic anyway. Europe is old, creaky, and irrelevant. The course of the world in the 21st century is going to be decided in the Pacific Rim (and India). I for one welcome our Chinese Overlords. (just kidding. Go Europe!)

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by judicial clerk

-I think taking a slow and cautious approach to this type of change is the better way to go. Is there a reason that European countries need to centralize governmental authority in the near future? I can't think of any. Wanting to be a superpower like the USA sound like a horrible, prideful reason. Take your time and let the US carry the water.

All excellent points about what a united Europe may look like.

I'm not sure the pro-integration Europeans really want to create another superpower. But they do want to increase Europe's effective power via resource pooling and strategy coordination to better meet their policy goals--that is not vanity or pride, it is smart foreign policy strategy.

If the European countries can somehow coordinate itheir foreign policy, that would give them more leverage in world affairs than if those countries were acting individually. This is not so important now, but Russia is revitalizing and East Asia seems destined to emerge--the Europeans will stand a better chance in defending their interests and remaining relevant in the coming decades if they pool their capacities...

[fantastic flying froggies]

I couln't have put it better Klingerware.
You've hit right on the head all the reasons why I am in favor of a united Europe.

[MIJB#19]

FFF, I am in favor of more European based foreign affairs, but there were elements in this proposed constitution that made me think this was not a good plan to do.

To be honest, I'm not even sure what it's all about, but as long as we get vote on something and we don't know what we're voting on, I'm not going to be pro. And most of all, I trust the political party and leader I voted for the past years and they were clearly against the current proposal, yet they are not against a united Europe.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by judicial clerk

-If I were one of the smaller countries, I would hold out and block centralization of power until I got all the concessions I could from the bigger players, because every bit of power and control you give up to the EU is going to be lost forever. I would demand a split of power based on state (and not population) that goes way further than the US federal government's bicameral legislature. It seems so crazy to think that the Dutch (or whoever) are going to have to do what France and Germany tell them to do.

This argument IMHO is even more applicable for the larger countries, or at least for the UK (I don't know enough about other countries polical psyches to comment on their behalf).

Why, after years of being an independent country, with a relatively stable and successful economy (and yes, I appreciate we've not been a true superpower since WWI) do we want to relinquish control to a Europe of whom none of the member countries have had the prolonged stability of ourselves? The most stable and successful Eurpoean country that springs to mind is Switzerland, and they don't want a part of it either - that says quite a lot to me in itself...

Trade agreements: definitely yes; I can see the case for more closely linked foreign policy; but I do not see why these benefits require centralised government and economic policy.

[MIJB#19]

It's appliciable to all countries:

* The 6 big countries (Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Poland) have no power to get something done based on their population alone, they always require 10+ smaller countries to agree, no matter their population.

* The remaining countries have no power at all, they need the population of 4 big countries to get something done. Maybe the Netherlands (16M) and the 5-11M population countries have a bit more power, but not much as the total population figure required is 65% of about 500M.

And all members can't block anything on their own anymore.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by judicial clerk

-Is there a reason that European countries need to centralize governmental authority in the near future? I can't think of any.

To fulfill Biblical prophecies?