Rookie Busts Question

chinaski · 01-12-2005, 01:04 PM

In my solo league, i drafted a MLB in the 1st round with the 30th pick - his ratings at the time of the selection was somewhere around 21/63. Now the draft is over and the game hasnt moved any further, I go look at my team and this same MLB is now 13/30. I always thought the 'bust' part happened after camp? To have a guy bust before camp seems a little out of order in my thinking.

DaddyTorgo · 01-12-2005, 01:07 PM

might it be something with your scout, where your scout is poor at scouting linebackers? So that he looked real good, but once he got onto the team you realized he was actually horrible?

stevew · 01-12-2005, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinaski

In my solo league, i drafted a MLB in the 1st round with the 30th pick - his ratings at the time of the selection was somewhere around 21/63. Now the draft is over and the game hasnt moved any further, I go look at my team and this same MLB is now 13/30. I always thought the 'bust' part happened after camp? To have a guy bust before camp seems a little out of order in my thinking.

One thing ive always wondered is if "busts and booms" are always coded into a player the same. Im not too good at saving league files, and I dont get an enormous amount of booms or busts when i draft. I wonder if you were to re run that draft 10 times, if that MLB would always bust, or if he would stay the same or boom. Lately i have had a lot of "good combine" AAA guys that seem to bust a lot more than i would think they would.

Joe · 01-12-2005, 01:14 PM

yeah, it happens when they get onto your roster after the draft. I recently had a 3rd round lb increase from a 21/43 to 45/68 before training camp happened.

chinaski · 01-12-2005, 01:20 PM

My scout is rated 'Very Good' at rating Linebackers. Doesnt the way i see a rookie always remain the same? As in, I see the rookie in the draft pool thru my scouts eyes and that always remains true..?

Pyser · 01-12-2005, 01:20 PM

i think booms and busts are randomized every time you re-run a draft. i lost a great boom when i forgot to save once and the comp crashed, and when i re-ran, my 6th round g didnt explode.

which begs the question, if that is the case, how good is the player, really? i mean, if he booms one time, and doesnt another, is he a 60 caliber player? or 30?

chinaski · 01-12-2005, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George W Bush

yeah, it happens when they get onto your roster after the draft. I recently had a 3rd round lb increase from a 21/43 to 45/68 before training camp happened.

Well that sucks, especially considering my scout is supposedly 'Very Good' at scouting linebackers, yet hes not able to see a 30+ point dropoff in ratings? Something just dont seem right about this...

Ben E Lou · 01-12-2005, 01:30 PM

Well, immediate busts/booms aren't the only kind. Sometimes they are revealed slowly.

Joe · 01-12-2005, 01:33 PM

i think this was explained as your scout gets a better idea of a player once they are on your roster (ie- up close), than when theyre not. Its the same reason ratings of players change a bit after you trade for them.

stevew · 01-12-2005, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Well, immediate busts/booms aren't the only kind. Sometimes they are revealed slowly.

How about the all the sudden random "bust" of say a 4th or 5th year player that wasnt injured? Have you ever seen that? Cause the other night i had a 80ish overall CB that should have been in his prime drop down into the 40s, and i know he wasnt hurt. I do know his volatility was high.

Pyser · 01-12-2005, 01:53 PM

i was going to ask the opposite. i remember random 6th or 7th year players would go from 40 to like 80 for no reason...but i havent seen that in a loooong time. any chance jim took this out in 5.1?

QuikSand · 01-12-2005, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pyser

any chance jim took this out in 5.1?

no.

Fritz · 01-12-2005, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Well, immediate busts/booms aren't the only kind. Sometimes they are revealed slowly.

and suddenly

dacman · 01-12-2005, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pyser

i was going to ask the opposite. i remember random 6th or 7th year players would go from 40 to like 80 for no reason...but i havent seen that in a loooong time. any chance jim took this out in 5.1?

I saw this very recently. I had an 8th year safety who went from ~50 to ~75 in one training camp.

BigJohn&TheLions · 01-12-2005, 02:00 PM

I'm not sure what is worse. The immediate bust who you get all excited about, or the gue who actually pans out and has three great years only to suffer a hangnail and not make it thru another game healthy...

Pyser · 01-12-2005, 02:00 PM

well, my players better get back on the steroids then.

cthomer5000 · 01-12-2005, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dacman

I saw this very recently. I had an 8th year safety who went from ~50 to ~75 in one training camp.

We just finished the draft in IHOF and we have our usual crop of breakouts around the league. A few so-so veteran players are now studs, and a lot of us had players take 4-7 point hits one way or another. One player who is currently a free agent (unsigned, but on a roster) also took a huge jump.

And there is a whole lot of rookie shifting after the draft.

Basically, guys can boom or bust slowly or quickly.

Havok · 01-12-2005, 02:28 PM

imo drafting in FOF is a complete crap shoot. Get the best scout you can and hope for the best.

cthomer5000 · 01-12-2005, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Havok

imo drafting in FOF is a complete crap shoot. Get the best scout you can and hope for the best.

I disagree pretty strongly. I do think there is a greater degree of chance in this version of the game though, and I think that is a good thing.

Samdari · 01-12-2005, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevew

How about the all the sudden random "bust" of say a 4th or 5th year player that wasnt injured? Have you ever seen that? Cause the other night i had a 80ish overall CB that should have been in his prime drop down into the 40s, and i know he wasnt hurt. I do know his volatility was high.

Was his name Champ Bailey?

gstelmack · 01-12-2005, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Havok

imo drafting in FOF is a complete crap shoot. Get the best scout you can and hope for the best.

No, it's more like poker. You can do a lot to increase your odds, but there are no guarantees.

henry296 · 01-12-2005, 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

No, it's more like poker. You can do a lot to increase your odds, but there are no guarantees.

Sounds a lot like the NFL.

jbmagic · 01-12-2005, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Havok

imo drafting in FOF is a complete crap shoot. Get the best scout you can and hope for the best.

read Skydog thread on drafting ....its found in the sticky above

33sherman · 01-12-2005, 03:28 PM

Booms and busts are pretty much randomized, as far as I can tell. I've run a few historical careers and sometimes great players bust(like Montana) and bust players end up great. In one league I ran, Tony Sacca had a long, illustrious career with the Buffalo Bills.

01-12-2005, 01:20 PM	#5
chinaski College Prospect Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Portland, Oregon	My scout is rated 'Very Good' at rating Linebackers. Doesnt the way i see a rookie always remain the same? As in, I see the rookie in the draft pool thru my scouts eyes and that always remains true..? __________________ CCFL - Buffalo Bills IHOF - Houston Mustangs GML - San Diego

01-12-2005, 01:30 PM	#8
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Well, immediate busts/booms aren't the only kind. Sometimes they are revealed slowly. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

01-12-2005, 02:00 PM	#15
BigJohn&TheLions College Benchwarmer Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: New York	I'm not sure what is worse. The immediate bust who you get all excited about, or the gue who actually pans out and has three great years only to suffer a hangnail and not make it thru another game healthy... __________________ In the immortal words of a great alcoholic, "Can't we all just get along?"

01-12-2005, 02:28 PM	#18
Havok College Starter Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Florida	imo drafting in FOF is a complete crap shoot. Get the best scout you can and hope for the best. __________________ Maniacal Misfitz - We're better than you and we know it!

01-12-2005, 01:07 PM	#2
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	might it be something with your scout, where your scout is poor at scouting linebackers? So that he looked real good, but once he got onto the team you realized he was actually horrible?

01-12-2005, 01:14 PM	#4
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	yeah, it happens when they get onto your roster after the draft. I recently had a 3rd round lb increase from a 21/43 to 45/68 before training camp happened.

01-12-2005, 01:20 PM	#6
Pyser Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Los Angeles	i think booms and busts are randomized every time you re-run a draft. i lost a great boom when i forgot to save once and the comp crashed, and when i re-ran, my 6th round g didnt explode. which begs the question, if that is the case, how good is the player, really? i mean, if he booms one time, and doesnt another, is he a 60 caliber player? or 30?

01-12-2005, 01:33 PM	#9
Joe Pro Starter Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Minneapolis	i think this was explained as your scout gets a better idea of a player once they are on your roster (ie- up close), than when theyre not. Its the same reason ratings of players change a bit after you trade for them.

01-12-2005, 01:53 PM	#11
Pyser Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Los Angeles	i was going to ask the opposite. i remember random 6th or 7th year players would go from 40 to like 80 for no reason...but i havent seen that in a loooong time. any chance jim took this out in 5.1?

01-12-2005, 03:28 PM	#24
33sherman Mascot Join Date: Nov 2002	Booms and busts are pretty much randomized, as far as I can tell. I've run a few historical careers and sometimes great players bust(like Montana) and bust players end up great. In one league I ran, Tony Sacca had a long, illustrious career with the Buffalo Bills.

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