FOF2K4: One-year wonders?

Ben E Lou · 01-02-2005, 06:53 AM

I'm curious as to others' opinions on this matter. Do you think (or has Jim ever said) that there's a hidden "streak" or "consistency" sort of rating or factor that will cause a guy to perform well above his ratings for just a season? Look at this guy, for example:

Parrish played behind pretty much same offensive line in 2012 and 2013, had pretty much identical ratings, and I used an identical offensive game plan, yet by midseason of 2013, he had made his way to the inactive list. He wasn't injured in either season, either. Was this just blind luck, or something else? What's also interesting is that in early 2013, he looked even better than in 2012; in his first two games, he averaged 5.77 ypd, then he went completely in the toilet from then on, averaging 3.25 yards per carry the rest of the way.

Thoughts?

Ragone · 01-02-2005, 07:00 AM

Looks like he showed some flashes of brilliance in 2011.. which is why you signed him.

Maybe it's that damn astroturf that broke him down so fast :P

Ben E Lou · 01-02-2005, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragone

Looks like he showed some flashes of brilliance in 2011.. which is why you signed him.

Maybe it's that damn astroturf that broke him down so fast :P

Well, I signed him to be one part of a running-back-by-committee approach in the season that I cut a high-priced starter. He latched onto the starting role early in the season with 41 carries for 181 yards in the first two games, and never looked back. He was held to <50 yards only twice all season, had 10 games of >70 yards, and four of >100.

I'm building a grass stadium right now. It'll be done in 2017.

Ragone · 01-02-2005, 07:08 AM

any fluxuation in cohesion? offensive line skill?

Ben E Lou · 01-02-2005, 07:22 AM

The o-line had better cohesion and skill in 2013 than in 2012. Two of the five starters had small increases from 2012-2013 (55/55-->56/56 and 85/85-->87/87), and one had a nice jump in current ratings (younger guy: 40/58-->57/59). It was the same starting group, no major injuries to the o-line either year and we averaged 4.34 ypc overall in 2013, even with Parrish pulling down the average. (It was 4.59 in 2012.)

Here are the linemen and how many starts they got over those two seasons:

C Jackie Hoover: 32 starts
RG Johnnie Henderson: 31 starts
LG Rodney Jeffries: 32 starts
RT Henry Price: 23 starts--but his backup ended up with a better KRB percentage than he did when he missed 9 starts in 2013: 48.0 as opposed to 35.1
LT Maurice Levens: 31 starts

Considering that the o-line seemed to perform a little better in the latter year, it certainly leads me to think it was something to do with Parrish.

Ben E Lou · 01-02-2005, 07:25 AM

Oh...here's a pretty stunning statistic: the o-line only allowed 11 sacks in all of 2013.

Ragone · 01-02-2005, 08:23 AM

I'm Doing my first ever game under the house arrest rules you layed out right now Skydog.. should be entertaining .. one question though.. Gm firing on or off

Ragone · 01-02-2005, 04:06 PM

Dola, after my first year.. i Drafted a qb who is quite honestly the best player i've ever seen generated was 38/95 before training camp and like 41/94 after..

Of course, as bad as my team is.. he's going to be running for his life quite a bit... good thing he has that 4.5 speed

Maple Leafs · 01-02-2005, 04:29 PM

Will all those extra carries, it looks like he may have played more passing downs. I find that (like you'd expect in real life) my RB's get a nice boost to YPC if they play in passing situations.

Senator · 01-02-2005, 04:31 PM

Had he the same attempts in 2013 as 2012, I bet you it would have been pretty close. No way to tell now, though. I will just sit here in this Atlanta bar with my friends and question why this GM wouldn't let the kid run the ball?

Ben E Lou · 01-02-2005, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Senator

I will just sit here in this Atlanta bar with my friends and question why this GM wouldn't let the kid run the ball?

'Cause Austin Kimble averaged 4.78 yards per carry and scored 8 TD's. That's why.

albionmoonlight · 01-02-2005, 04:41 PM

I think that there are enough factors that go into a running back's performance that a year like the one you listed above need not be the result of a "streak" rating. I'm not saying that one does not exist, but that many things can go into it.

If you had a better passing game, the AI may have been playing more zone against you. You were also playing different teams in the two years.

If I had to bet, I would say that luck and coincidence had more to do with 2012 than hidden ratings.

Senator · 01-02-2005, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkyDog

'Cause Austin Kimble averaged 4.78 yards per carry and scored 8 TD's. That's why.

Parrish would have pushed that average back up. I mean, c'mon - the games he played were against better teams. Kimble played the downhill schedule, I mean, I could have had 4.78 yards a carry. Admit it - you got nervous and tossed this kids loyalty to the wind. He was proven, and you threw it away! My season tickets ARE WORTHLESS!

(Monday morning quarterbacking is so fun)

cthomer5000 · 01-02-2005, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkyDog

one-year wonders?

Joe Teeters.

01-02-2005, 07:22 AM	#5
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	The o-line had better cohesion and skill in 2013 than in 2012. Two of the five starters had small increases from 2012-2013 (55/55-->56/56 and 85/85-->87/87), and one had a nice jump in current ratings (younger guy: 40/58-->57/59). It was the same starting group, no major injuries to the o-line either year and we averaged 4.34 ypc overall in 2013, even with Parrish pulling down the average. (It was 4.59 in 2012.) Here are the linemen and how many starts they got over those two seasons: C Jackie Hoover: 32 starts RG Johnnie Henderson: 31 starts LG Rodney Jeffries: 32 starts RT Henry Price: 23 starts--but his backup ended up with a better KRB percentage than he did when he missed 9 starts in 2013: 48.0 as opposed to 35.1 LT Maurice Levens: 31 starts Considering that the o-line seemed to perform a little better in the latter year, it certainly leads me to think it was something to do with Parrish. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 01-02-2005 at 07:23 AM.

01-02-2005, 07:25 AM	#6
Ben E Lou Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Greensboro, NC	Oh...here's a pretty stunning statistic: the o-line only allowed 11 sacks in all of 2013. __________________ The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'!

01-02-2005, 08:23 AM	#7
Ragone Pro Rookie Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, Mo	I'm Doing my first ever game under the house arrest rules you layed out right now Skydog.. should be entertaining .. one question though.. Gm firing on or off Last edited by Ragone : 01-02-2005 at 08:27 AM.

01-02-2005, 04:29 PM	#9
Maple Leafs Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2002	Will all those extra carries, it looks like he may have played more passing downs. I find that (like you'd expect in real life) my RB's get a nice boost to YPC if they play in passing situations. __________________ Down Goes Brown: Toronto Maple Leafs Humor and Analysis

01-02-2005, 04:31 PM	#10
Senator FOFC's Elected Representative Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The stars at night; are big and bright	Had he the same attempts in 2013 as 2012, I bet you it would have been pretty close. No way to tell now, though. I will just sit here in this Atlanta bar with my friends and question why this GM wouldn't let the kid run the ball? __________________ "i have seen chris simms play 4-5 times in the pros and he's very clearly got it. he won't make a pro bowl this year, but it'll come. if you don't like me saying that, so be it, but its true. we'll just have to wait until then" imettrentgreen "looking at only ten games, and oddly using a median only, leaves me unmoved generally" - Quiksand

01-02-2005, 07:00 AM	#2
Ragone Pro Rookie Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, Mo	Looks like he showed some flashes of brilliance in 2011.. which is why you signed him. Maybe it's that damn astroturf that broke him down so fast :P

01-02-2005, 07:08 AM	#4
Ragone Pro Rookie Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, Mo	any fluxuation in cohesion? offensive line skill?

01-02-2005, 04:06 PM	#8
Ragone Pro Rookie Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, Mo	Dola, after my first year.. i Drafted a qb who is quite honestly the best player i've ever seen generated was 38/95 before training camp and like 41/94 after.. Of course, as bad as my team is.. he's going to be running for his life quite a bit... good thing he has that 4.5 speed

01-02-2005, 04:41 PM	#12
albionmoonlight Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: North Carolina	I think that there are enough factors that go into a running back's performance that a year like the one you listed above need not be the result of a "streak" rating. I'm not saying that one does not exist, but that many things can go into it. If you had a better passing game, the AI may have been playing more zone against you. You were also playing different teams in the two years. If I had to bet, I would say that luck and coincidence had more to do with 2012 than hidden ratings.

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