11-03-2004, 08:54 AM | #351 | |
Torchbearer
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: On Lake Harriet
|
Quote:
That's interesting, since the Secretary of State last night was adament that no provisional votes would be counted for 10 days because of state law. Nevertheless, I think the battle was over about 1:30AM Eastern last night. Kerry would gain a lot more by being a statesman now. |
|
11-03-2004, 08:58 AM | #352 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
|
Quote:
CNN: Bush camp certain of win. (254-252 being reported as their count.) ABC: Republicans certain. Dems defiant. (254-242) MSNBC: "We are convinced." (269-238) FOX: Bush camp claims victory. (269-242) CBS: Bush camp confident amid count. (254-242)
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
|
11-03-2004, 09:00 AM | #353 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Illinois
|
Quote:
I think your first two lessons are right on the money, but I'm not sure that the Iraq war the most surprising factor. Rather, another lesson of this election seems to have been the unexpected (at least for me) prominence of "morality" in choosing a candidate. In many states that was the 2nd or 3rd ranked item of importance for voters, and those folks voted heavily for Bush. I'm stunned by this, as just 8 short years ago people were voting for Clinton despite his questionable morality, ostensibly because they thought being able to do the job was more important than being a morally upright person. This seems to reflect an epic sea-change, if accurate. In other words, it appears that the Bush-Cheney campaign's efforts to get out the religious vote worked beautifully (for them). And it didn't hurt that 11 states were voting on gay marriage bans, either. In that sense, I wonder if the effort to push gay marriages may have ultimiately worked against the broader interests of the gay constituency by provoking so many social conservatives to the polls. |
|
11-03-2004, 09:01 AM | #354 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
|
Quote:
While typing this post, I just heard on the news that there are those within the Kerry camp saying that it is "hopeless" and that he should concede.
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
|
11-03-2004, 09:02 AM | #355 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edmond, OK
|
Quote:
I was going to post something almost exactly like this. I think this is definitely true and was something that should have been predicted but seemingly wasn't. I think the gay marriage ban issue was really big for Bush despite the fact that his position is exactly the same as Kerry's. Bush, though, emphasized it enough so that people felt like he was the more "moral" of the two, and I think he reaped the benefit of that. |
|
11-03-2004, 09:08 AM | #356 | |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
|
Quote:
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 11-03-2004 at 09:09 AM. |
|
11-03-2004, 09:10 AM | #357 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: St. Paul, MN
|
Quote:
Cool. |
|
11-03-2004, 09:15 AM | #358 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
|
Quote:
I agree. I think these new, silent morality voters offset the young, vocal voters that were seen as vital to the Kerry campaign.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
|
11-03-2004, 09:16 AM | #359 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edmond, OK
|
Quote:
I'm not necessarily saying that Kerry made a mistake on this at all. In fact, if anything I think Bush could have used it even more to his advantage, but as you said, it's a no-win issue. If you take one side, you're immoral to the right, but if you take the other, you're intolerant to the middle and left. The only point that I was making is that I think this was tremendously overlooked as an influence in getting conservative voters to the polls in key states like Ohio, and seriously helped Bush win. It's not a strategy necessarily; it was just inevitable. I thought that before the election and was surprised it wasn't mentioned very much. |
|
11-03-2004, 09:17 AM | #360 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
|
Quote:
I think he backed off this once everyone realized that waiting 11 days would be of no benefit to anyone. But you're right, that was the public prouncement last night.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
|
11-03-2004, 09:18 AM | #361 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
|
Quote:
To tell you the truth, I'm not convinced that it wasn't a strategy from the beginning.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
|
11-03-2004, 09:20 AM | #362 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Edmond, OK
|
Quote:
It may have been, but honestly I think that the Bush campaign became scared of it in the end. They thought that it would make them sound devisive and tilt the independent vote to Kerry, but I don't think they accurately anticipated the amount of voters it would bring in. If they had, they may have played it up even more, especially at the end. |
|
11-03-2004, 09:20 AM | #363 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: the yo'
|
The Gay marriage votes on the Ballot had to cause a lot of the turnout. While they were there, a lot just voted for bush as well.
|
11-03-2004, 09:53 AM | #364 |
Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
|
Boortz is saying that it is an Ohio law that they can't count the provisional ballots for 11 days.
__________________
The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! Last edited by Ben E Lou : 11-03-2004 at 09:53 AM. |
11-03-2004, 09:55 AM | #365 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
|
Quote:
"In Ohio, Kerry won among young adults, but lost in every other age group. One-fourth of Ohio voters identified themselves as born-again Christians and they backed Bush by a 3-to-1 margin. A sideline issue in the national presidential campaign, gay civil unions may have been a sleeper that hurt Kerry - who strongly supports that right - in Ohio and elsewhere. Ohioans expanded their law banning gay marriage, already considered the toughest in the country, with an even broader constitutional amendment against civil unions."
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-03-2004 at 09:55 AM. |
|
11-03-2004, 10:28 AM | #366 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Cary, NC
|
Quote:
I have no idea. I think that's the first time I've tried to watch Rather during that time frame. I think the only time I watch these national news guys is during big elections ;-)
__________________
-- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities |
|
11-03-2004, 10:56 AM | #367 | |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
|
Quote:
So, while the official count won't be certified for 11 days, they were saying they would know the results of 50,000 ballots by lunchtime. That's where the 20,000 came from that I quoted earlier. My guess is the fact that Kerry had only gotten 7,000 out of the first 20,000 counted made it almost numerically impossible for him to win Ohio and that's why he conceded. But, they are going through the provisional ballots in Ohio right know to verify the validity of the ballots. And, by doing so, they can see what each ballot has for the presidential election. |
|
11-03-2004, 11:28 AM | #368 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: In Absentia
|
I think the whole numbers game played out like this:
Bush is up by around 136K in Ohio 77 of 88 counties reported around 136K provisional ballots. The remaining 11 counties counted for 10.5% of provisional ballots in 2000. That means that there are probably 150K provisional ballots this time. In 2000, there were 120K provisionals, 100K of which were found to be valid. That leaves 1/6 as invalid. Applying that to 150K, that means roughly 25K provisionals would be found to be invalid. That leaves 125K provisionals in a race where Kerry is losing by 136K. Throw in military overseas ballots, which you would think would run for Bush, or at worst split, and Kerry has no mathematical chance of winning.
__________________
M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-03-2004 at 11:29 AM. |
11-03-2004, 11:55 AM | #369 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Kerry called it.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
11-03-2004, 03:14 PM | #370 | |
Greatly Missed. (7/11/84-06/12/05)
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Palo Alto, CA
|
Quote:
It really baffles me how crazy people get about gay marriage, I think pop culture and television have really scared people into thinking that gays and lesbians are taking over the country or something, so people feel its neccecary to protect themselves against a minority. The GOP will lose seats if they become too conservative, because those reforms will backfire on them. I'm sorry to say its true, but very liberal ideas and reforms don't work and very conservative ideas and reforms don't work. Its just common sense that we need moderation in this country.
__________________
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt. |
|
11-03-2004, 03:36 PM | #371 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA
|
Quote:
Baffled I can live with. There's countless things that leave me shaking my head in amazement on a pretty regular basis. But I don't think it can be emphasized enough that this was far far far from being "a Georgia thing" or "a Mississippi thing" (I believe those are the 2 states with the largest margins of victory for their proposals). Similar measures passed in a couple of states that went for Kerry, and a much stronger measure in "too-close-to-call" Ohio. Across the board victory for the measures. Hell, to look at the numbers, it seems unlikely to believe you could get 11 states that split their Presidential votes to agree on a referendum to hand out free money or free beer. And yet this particular subject comes back unanimous. I guess what I'm getting at is this -- in spite of the countless amount of media time spent ridiculously claiming otherwise, opposing recognition of gay marriage IS the mainstream/center position in this country.
__________________
"I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis |
|
11-03-2004, 03:41 PM | #372 | |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
|
Quote:
I think a wide majority of people find themselves more at home with republicans from a social policy standpoint. Just look at their convention, you had Arnold, Rudy, McCain, Bush and Zell Miller. You have pretty much the wide range discussed above on social issues. When was the last time a Pro-Life or Anti-Affirmative Action or Anti-Gay Marriage or very religious person was embraced by the democratic party? Yet much of the US falls in the above categories. |
|
11-03-2004, 03:45 PM | #373 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: The State of Insanity
|
Barack Obama, Arles?
__________________
Check out Foz's New Video Game Site, An 8-bit Mind in an 8GB world! http://an8bitmind.com |
11-03-2004, 03:58 PM | #374 |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Feltham, west of London, England
|
Slight change of topic from across the Atlantic - looking at the queues and hearing of people waiting hours to vote, I was wondering how many voters each polling station would be expected to cover.
__________________
Roberto of London Last edited by Roberto : 11-03-2004 at 04:00 PM. |
11-03-2004, 04:04 PM | #375 | |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
|
Quote:
Which is why he might be the start of a new Democratic revolution. BUT, he is going to have to do more than make good speeches to do it. |
|
11-03-2004, 04:07 PM | #376 | ||
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
|
Quote:
I originally said: Quote:
Obama is pro-Choice, pro affirmative action, does not oppose gay marriage and favors increasing gun laws. While he's certainly an impressive candidate, he doesn't really fit what I was describing above. |
||
11-03-2004, 04:09 PM | #377 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Internets
|
Quote:
Obama is a suspect candidate. He has a few skeletons in his closet that aren't widely known, but they make it hard for him to run for president. Still, he may be the Dems best hope.
__________________
I do mind, the Dude minds. This will not stand, ya know, this aggression will not stand, man. - The Dude |
|
11-03-2004, 04:13 PM | #378 | |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
|
Quote:
H doesn't have to be President to start a revolution. Ask Newt Gingrich. If he can start forming a new coalition in Washington, he could be a big time player for many years to come. |
|
11-03-2004, 04:15 PM | #379 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Internets
|
Quote:
True enough - I was just remarking on his presidential prospects.
__________________
I do mind, the Dude minds. This will not stand, ya know, this aggression will not stand, man. - The Dude |
|
11-03-2004, 05:25 PM | #380 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Nov 2003
|
Quote:
Yeah, he was a cokehead when he was in school, was an alcoholic, dodged Vietnam, and ran a couple businesses into the ground.. oh, wait.. People make way too much of the skeletons in the closet. A good campaign strategist just makes them go away. Clinton waltzed past his skeletons and Bush buried his. So anyway.. whats the dish on Obama? |
|
11-03-2004, 07:07 PM | #381 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
Quote:
I made my predictions a month or so ago. I said that Bush would win and gave the reason why I felt that. One of those reasons was the war. I still firmly believe the silent majority supported the war and always have. I'm not talking about the people who believe Hussein was connected to Al Queda either. I'm talking about rational people who felt this was the best course of action to take. If I'd made a prediction on the morning of the election, I would have guessed Bush would win the popular vote, but Kerry would eek out the electoral vote with an Ohio win. I didn't trust the first exit polls (or any exit polls after that). I wanted to see the raw data. As the numbers started rolling in, it became pretty clear Bush was doing better than people thought he would. I thought the unemployed in Ohio would swing the election. . . but even they seemed to support Bush in the end. I never, ever, understood the people who had Kerry winning 300+ electoral votes. I was prepared to eat my words sinse so many people were saying it, but it just didn't seem possible to me. |
|
11-03-2004, 07:55 PM | #382 |
"Dutch"
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Tampa, FL
|
The people who had Kerry winning 300+ definately shut me up. I thought for sure I was way off thinking Bush stood a chance with some of the intellectual elite whooping up a Kerry victory. Jeez, I'm the one that's been screaming that we should not believe everything we see on TV, and then I fall for the same crap.
|
11-03-2004, 08:44 PM | #383 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Colorado
|
I just studied that county red/blue map and saw something interesting. Take a look at the number of red counties in Pennsylvania. I think Thomas Jefferson gave us a warning about this a long time ago.
|
11-04-2004, 08:02 AM | #384 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
|
Pennslvania ended up being closer than Ohio (120,000 vote diff). And, when you consider there are still a large number of military ballots coming in because of the Rendell extention, Bush might end up being 30,000-40,000 votes from a large electoral route. Wisconsin and New Hampshire were also within 1%.
In Bush's column, only New Mexico and Iowa had margins of victory less than 2%, and he would have won the presidency without either. The left is in danger of losing big states in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and even Michigan to the same heartland phenomina people have been talking about. On the right, the only big state within 3% was Ohio. Even Florida had a comfortable 5 point margin. |
11-04-2004, 10:19 AM | #385 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
|
Again, to be clear, my above comments refer primarily to social policy, not necessarily economic policy. But if the left keeps turning more and more secular, they are in a position to lose states like Wisconsin, Penn, Minnesota and Michigan.
|
11-04-2004, 10:25 AM | #386 |
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Here
|
The point is they're not secular, but the Republicans are doing a good job of making people believe it is so. Kerry goes to church every week... how is that secular?
|
11-04-2004, 10:58 AM | #387 | |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
|
Quote:
Right now, a majority of the US believes in everything stated above, yet you can't find one democrat that is fronted by the party that even takes a stance on just half of the above. The republican convention had Arnold and Rudy that don't toe the party line on abortion, gay marriage, and other social issues. They had McCain speak who doesn't toe the line on certain economic and social issues as well. Where was the pro-life speaker in the DNC convention? The anti-affirmative guy? The pro-gun guy? The pro death penalty speaker? These are all stances that a majority of Americans have, yet no one in the DNC leadership has. The democrats need more of John Breaux and Evan Byah and less of Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton. Yet, I don't think we will see Breaux or Byah ever speaking at a DNC convention like we did with Arnold and Rudy on the right. Last edited by Arles : 11-04-2004 at 10:59 AM. |
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|