Fantasy Football Discussion

[Logan]

It's getting to be that time of year. Fantasy football is upon us. My money-league draft was conducted today, and I thought I would share the results of it with the board (actually, I had originally tried posting this on the board of another fantasy league I'm in, but it was too long, and damn it I spent a lot of time writing it up, so someone is going to read it somewhere! ) Hopefully others will post their rosters, and we can get some good, consolidated discussion.

Some background...$150 per team, 12 teams, standard scoring, standard starters (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, K, DEF). I share a team with one of my roommates, and the same guys have been in the league for the last 5 years. Draft was held at a friend's house, which is so much better than online.

We're trying something a little different this year, and changing the league to keeper. The conditions we agreed on are: You can keep 3 players total (max of 2 players who were drafted in rounds 2-5, no first rounders allowed to be kept). In the following year, for each player you choose to keep, you lose a pick in the round you drafted him in the previous year. As of now, we're doing a max of one year allowed to be kept, but this will probably be extended.

We had the 8th pick (known this for a few weeks). Originally, we thought we would be getting Ricky, as the top 8 RBs were pretty clear. After his little charade though, we weren't too excited about going with Edge, but convinced ourselves that in a contract year he would be good.

Quick flashback to last year: We were in a tough spot (9 of 12 I think), and missed all the big time RBs so we took Harrison. Coming back in the 2nd, Vick fell into our laps. We knew we needed a RB, but the talent wasn't there at that point, and we figured we could get a minimum of 800 yards out of Vick's legs. By our 3rd rounder, any good starting RB was gone, so we took big Tony G. Needless to say, our RBs ended up being Trung Candidate and Marcel Shipp.

Wasn't such a hot season.

Therefore, we really wanted to have 2 very good backs selected with our first two picks (obvious strategy).

Holmes went #1, but then we were all shocked when Accchhman Green went #2, leaving LT for the lucky bastard at 3 (several attempts to trade up were made, but they were unsuccessful). Duece, Portis, Alexander, and Jam Lewis followed, leaving Edge for us. Fine, we took him. Taylor was a bit of a surprise at 9, followed by Moss, Marshall Faulk (terrible) and Harrison to close out the round. Vick started the second round (giving that team the same Harrison-Vick combo that we had last year), and this started a 2nd round run on QBs that I couldn't believe. Culpepper followed, then Manning. Terry Holt followed, and we were up. Kevan Barlow, Rudi Johnson, or Dominick Davis...all have some question marks, but all with potential. We, the two Niner fans, went with Barlow, hoping that the Niners won't be so far out of games that they'll be constantly throwing late. At this point though, we were very happy with our two RBs.

Donovan Friggin McNabb was selected with the 7th pick in the 2nd round! This prompted the first obligatory "Is this guy's money in?" joke (thank you Sports Guy).

As it progressed back to our 3rd rounder, we were constantly trying to trade up, as Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry were still available, as some questionable RBs were being taken (Steven Davis, Tiki Barber, etc). After many unsuccessful attempts, our pick came up, and both guys were still there. We went with Rudi, and were extremely happy that we ended up with 3 RBs who we had rated in the top 15 at the position.

In the 4th, we took Tony G, for what seems like the 4th year in a row. We wanted a WR here, but with all the depth at the position, we went with the best TE.

I don't remember the exact player, but right around this pick is where the "That guy isn't even on this entire list" joke came in.

Our roster, with comments.

QB: Trent Green, Byron Leftwich: Green is a solid QB in a high-scoring offense, and Leftwich has a ton of potential and was surprisingly good as a rookie.

RB: Edge James, Barlow, R. Johnson, McGahee, Tony Hollings, Dominic Rhodes: You know my opinion on the first 3. McGahee should have a nice year in a limited role, and will be a solid player off the bench. Could be a huge keeper value, being drafted in the 8th round I believe. Hollings could perform well if Davis doesn't play like he did last year. Rhodes is insurance on James.

WR: Koren Robinson, Rod Smith, Peter Warrick, Terry Glenn, Reggie Williams, Kevin Johnson: The weakest area of our team, but has some potential. I expect a big year out of Smith, and someone besides Heap has to catch balls in Baltimore. We'll be looking to shop a RB for a big time receiver.

TE: Tony G, L.J. Smith: Tony G is the best TE in the league, and L.J. went to Rutgers. Therefore, he's the man . Really wouldn't have a problem trading Tony and using L.J. as our starter.

Kasay is our kicker, and Tampa is our D.

Overall, we're very, very happy with our team. After glancing over the rosters, our team is at least in the top 3, talent-wise.

Should be a good season.

[sachmo71]

Sounds like fun.

Question: Vick "fell into your lap" in the 2nd round last year? Wasn't he out for 8 weeks, and this league wasn't a keeper?

Why did you punt him this year?

I like your RBs, but Leftwich scares me. He could be the best QB in the world, but that team runs.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Logan

As it progressed back to our 3rd rounder, we were constantly trying to trade up, as Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry were still available, as some questionable RBs were being taken (Steven Davis, Tiki Barber, etc).

Well, I think most people would consider Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry more questionable (at this point) than Steven Davis.

I like your team a lot, and the QBs you got late make all the people who took QBs early look foolish (Trent Green has been a consistent fant. Your WRs are indeed weak, but IMO that is the place to be weak, as mediocre WRs tend to be closer to the top WRs than at other positions.

FYI - I do think Tony Hollings is a waste of a roster spot. Much like Rhodes is a good guy for you to have, Hollings simply has more value to Davis' owner than he does to you.

[bhlloy]

One thought... I wouldn't say Fred Taylor was a surprise at number 9. I'd probably put him over Edgerrin and Deuce at this point. I managed to steal Taylor in the second or third last year and he came through big in the playoffs and won me the league. I'm unsure about the number of carries Edge is going to get and McAllister is a very streaky back.

Agree that Faulk in the first round is a horrible pick, I wouldn't pick Harrison up anywhere near that early either. Looks like he's just started his decline.

[sachmo71]

After the way Faulk finished the year in 03, I don't think he's a gamble in the first. I would hope to get him in the second, but if you see your guy, you take him.

[bhlloy]

Drafting the most ready to play in '04 running back in the first round of the draft (when you have other pressing needs) tells me that Mike Martz is prepared for Faulk to break down this year and even if he doesn't his carries are going to go down. It's a judgement call though.

On the flipside though neither Travis Henry or Priest Holmes' numbers suffered when their teams picked McGahee and Johnson in the first round. So maybe Martz is looking to the future when Faulk's cap number becomes too big.

For me it's too big a question mark to put Faulk in the first round, and I'd probably stay away from him until the end of the second.

[rkmsuf]

How come it's not 28 touches?

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Jaguars | Taylor Looking for 27 Touches Per game - from www.KFFL.com
Mon, 2 Aug 2004 07:44:30 -0700

Vito Stellino, of the Florida Times-Union, reports Jacksonville Jaguars RB Fred Taylor said he'd like to see 27 touches per game this season. Head coach Jack Del Rio, however, said he doesn't want to set specific goals for Taylor as he doesn't want to get into a "Fred ratio." Taylor believes he'll be better off this year after having a form of Lasik eye surgery during the offseason. He's wearing an eye shield on his helmet, but thinks the surgery will help him see holes better and also help him in catching the football.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

Sounds like fun.

Question: Vick "fell into your lap" in the 2nd round last year? Wasn't he out for 8 weeks, and this league wasn't a keeper?

Why did you punt him this year?

I like your RBs, but Leftwich scares me. He could be the best QB in the world, but that team runs.

Sorry, I left out a major bit of info . Last year, the draft was held right around this time, before the preseason. So he was healthy (and I still remember every damn detail of the phone call I got from my partner informing me of the injury--it was tough to take). Also, I guess when I said we were "trying something new" with keepers this year, I wasn't completely specific that we had never done a keeper before, so that's why we didn't hold on to Vick. Sorry .

Leftwich will be our backup, so there's not much of a worry there. He does have a lot of talent, and as I said earlier, the fact that he was very good for a rookie QB bodes well, and he has plenty of weapons. We got him late, so if he further proves himself this year, he could be kept next year at the cost of a late round pick.

Originally Posted by Samdari

Well, I think most people would consider Rudi Johnson and Travis Henry more questionable (at this point) than Steven Davis.

I like your team a lot, and the QBs you got late make all the people who took QBs early look foolish (Trent Green has been a consistent fant. Your WRs are indeed weak, but IMO that is the place to be weak, as mediocre WRs tend to be closer to the top WRs than at other positions.

FYI - I do think Tony Hollings is a waste of a roster spot. Much like Rhodes is a good guy for you to have, Hollings simply has more value to Davis' owner than he does to you.

I'm not high on Davis. He has a young back behind him that will get a decent amount of carries (much like Henry), and if you look at his numbers last year, they were significantly worse in the second half of the season (averaged ~ 125 yards first 8 games, ~ 75 yards the last 8), when teams started focusing on him more. IMO, this can be attributed to the Panthers not going into the season expecting A. Delhomme to actually be a good QB and B. the receivers stepping up. Once they started having success, they ran less, passed more. I'd expect them to tailor their offense this season to that as well. I think Davis will still end up with a 1000 yard season, but I don't think it will be much higher than that.

Johnson definitely does have some questions...they will always be there when a back comes out of nowhere and performs like he does. The Bengals drafting Perry certainly leads to one of them, as we have to see whether Johnson gets enough goal line carries. But in my mind, first-year QB = lots of running plays, so all should be good.

As for QBs, stay away from them in the first 4 rounds. Get at least two RBs and 2 pass-catchers. Way too much depth at the position, with very little separation among the top 10.

Tony Hollings got our last roster spot. As I said, its only for the potential that something could go wrong in Houston (plus, in an 18 round draft, every backup, and many 3rd-string RBs get drafted). If we need to, he'll be the first player cut. We would definitely think of trading him to D. Davis' owner if he starts getting a few extra carries per game than people think.


Other comments...

I'll respectfully disagree with putting Taylor over Edge, but Duece is much better than both of them. He actually dropped some weight over the offseason, so he will be even faster. He also caught nearly 70 passes last year for over 500 yards.

On Faulk...I think Jackson will have a large impact on his numbers this year, plus there's the age and injury concerns. The guy who took him went with Manning in the 2nd, and I believe Kevin Jones is his 2nd RB. All those combined are reasons why I didn't like that pick.

[sachmo71]

There are caveats to the 2 running back rule.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

There are caveats to the 2 running back rule.

???

Are we all in the same fantasy league as you? Do you not want to divulge your winning strategies?

Please explain why you feel so...

[Philliesfan980]

I've been pretty busy to this point in the summer, but what magazine is everyone using this year at their annual draft? Or are you going the "pay" website route? I used to use rotoworld (or was it rotowire?), but $39.95 is a little steep for the "Draft kit" (which doesn't even get you updates through the season).

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by Logan

???

Are we all in the same fantasy league as you? Do you not want to divulge your winning strategies?

Please explain why you feel so...

At certain positions, and depending on how large the league is, I might take a QB or even a WR in the first round, depending on who has been taken already. But I sure hope we are in the same league, if you always take 2 rbs right off the bat.

[Logan]

Something I wanted to add...

As I said, this particular league has always had its draft held live, since we are all friends and have known each other for years. One of the problems with it, however, is some people don't pay attention to every single pick, and towards the middle rounds some owners mistakingly try to pick up a player who has already been selected. We never had a big blackboard or something similar to write the picks on, so we just relied on checking off a personal list.

This year, one of the owners bought this draft kit from the following (properly named) site:

hxxp://www.draftkit.com/

For $25 (with shipping), you get a huge paper draft board that has room for 14 teams and 30 rounds, with boxes filled in. It also comes with color-coded labels for virtually every player (only people missing were some obscure, undrafted rookies).

At first, I thought it would be a waste, thinking it would take too much time to constantly walk up to the board, search for a label, and put it up on the sheet. But our commish who was sitting near it put the labels up for anyone who was too lazy to do so (like myself), while some owners made the trip. It also eliminated virtually any possiblility to select a player who was already drafted, and even if someone wasn't paying attention, or missed a few picks, no one had to take the time to do a rundown of the last X picks. Also, because it was color-coded, you could easily see what positions teams were lacking, which helped anticipate who a team who may be right behind you would target.

I highly recommend it for your leagues. At a small price, it could be taken out of the pool for the winners, or just added to the fee ($2/team in a 12 team league).