Morgado's Lab Notes: West Coast Run and Shoot

[Morgado]

Hey folks! No, I have not disappeared - just busy with end of semester crap like studying for an econometrics test. Anyways, I took a big break today and watched D&D for 4 bucks (it sucked) and then came home and tested out something I noticed earlier.

Okay, we all know how the computer supposedly calculates YAC - it takes the point at which the ball is caught and then credits the receiver with YAC for anything after that. So I look at the receiving leader board for several seasons and the trend is very strong. All the top guys have YAC about 1/2 their total receiving yardage. If you look at all the leaders and sroll through them, you'll see guys with good catching and catch frequency, but almost always with ridiculously high yards per catch. Of course, there's a few aberrations here and there, but on the most part these guys aren't possession receivers - they're big play guys.

So I got to thinking... maybe yards per catch is THE key attribute for WRs. Now this really makes sense if you think about the way the West Coast Offense and the Run and Shoot system is supposed to work. Make high percentage passes and let the receiver gain yards after the catch. Crowton's flanker screens are extended pitchouts that let the WR go one on one with a cornerback for yardage. It's like the Knicks running that damn Larry Johnson isolation play 50 billion times in a game.

Oh so where was I? Oh yeah, letting the receiver do the work. I remember someone else posted the all-ultra low run percentage offensive settings a while back as a good offense. I tried it and didn't really like it because it was really just taking stud QB theory to an extreme. The 64 dollar question is: how can we make average starter quality QBs successful? Anyone can draft a maxed QB and win enough bowls for the thumb. The challenge is to do it with something weird... running... defense... second rate QB. Stuff like that.

So here was what I came up with. The West Coast Offense's bread and butter is to throw short and throw often. Many of the passes are to the backs and tight end. In FOF, the only way to really simulate the extremely safe passing structure of a WCO is to manipulate the throw percentages. Here's the set I ended up using:

Screen 20, Short 60, Mid 10, Long 5, Deep 5

I originally tried it with higher mid and more on long, but it wasn't getting the right numbers. When you do something like this, you get a huge bulk of the throws being completed, but if you have junk runners after the catch you get squat yards. This is where drafting for YAC comes in.

House rules I imposed on myself for personnel went as follows:

1. No signing FAs during 20 Step.
2. No use of franchise tag.
3. No signing any FA unless that FA is a rookie and signs a 7 year minimum deal.
4. Autosign draft picks on.
5. Allowed to renegotiate with any means necessaryfor players already on my roster.
6. Stupid money players who are not signed by CPU but were on my team last season may be signed post camp (exception to 3).
7. No drafting QBs during round 1 or trading for a QB drafted in round 1.
8. Start with allocation draft.

So my team is essentially draft picks and 7 year minimum guys. I actually got quite a few solid players as 7 year minimum dudes.
The guinea pig for the experiment turned out to be Steve McNair, who has fabulous scrambling and good screen and short skills, but very average accuracy, third down and throwing power. I'd say he qualifies as a average starter.

To work in the traps and draws that the WCO and Run and Shoot uses to keep opponents honest, I set all first, second and third down run percentages to 25 *except* 2nd and 3-7 to go. That one I jacked up to 75% to be my changeup. The offense is designed to be like a WCO where you knuckleball away and every now and then throw a changeup.

Option routes aren't well simulated in FOF, so what I did was allow the scout to do training camp with zero alterations from me. Using the formation ratings from that, I would usually massage the values until the power formations were 25-30 and weaker formations were 10-20. So like in passing situations, Shotgun, Single Back, and Split gets like 20s, Weak and Strong get 10s and I might get 10. Of course it all depends on the actual proficiencies my scout gets me. Reverse it for run situations.

The receiver mix went like this - 3 awesome yards per catch WRs (2 of whom have good other skills and are starter quality - one must be 6'1 or taller), Novacek-style TE, and a pass catching stud FB. That's the core of the offense. The Qb's job is just to complete dink passes and let these guys run. Rushing game was more or less done as a RB by Committee with occasional 3rd or 4th round picks, but usually staffed by 7 year minimum salary guys.

This was really live and die by the pass. Most draft picks went to Offensive Line and defense, particularly the secondary. I wanted to try and simulate the Nebraska MIB defense, but it was kind of hard because you can't play base Nickel. Oh yeah, I don't call plays - that would be cheating.

So anyways, I tested this for a ten year span and came up with some pretty cool results. McNair actually made 1st team All-Pro three times and consistently threw a Steve Young-like 60+ percent completion rate. Most seasons were at least 3000 with one 4000 I think. Most of his All-Pro selections came when he did not in fact lead the league in either yards or rating! Apparently, scrambling yardage counts for a lot... but still his passing numbers were very good.

The wide receivers were interesting. Whoever happened to be the number one 6 footer dude I always go after (much more realistic to have to draft a Keyshawn instead of some 5'9" maxed shrimp) would be a top 5 contender for the receiving title. The best guy I got a hold of was at the tailend of the decade test period. One of my first round picks, Ian Mahnken got OffRoY and 1st team three years straight. The YAC for him was mind-boggling, often 1/2 to 2/3 the value of his total receiving yards! I remember one game he had 99 YAC and just 96 receiving yards... heh. The disgusting part of his numbers is that his TPct is only like 26 while all the other guys at the top of the leader board are like 33. So he gets less looks but makes more out of each look.

The gameplan worked fairly well in simulating a play-action WCO attack. The computer is lulled into really anticipating the short dinks, but really can't stop you because the throws are high percentage. Sometimes you get stopped, but if you have the yards per catch crew, they should get tidy chucks o yardage. The best has to be the "play-action" segment of the gameplan though....

Since you run so infrequently, when you do in fact run, it seems to be way more effective than usual. I remember people complaining about too many runs for loss. Well... heheh... I was getting like 5 to 11 yard averages every other game, mostly because the 6 to 10 carries would go for like 80 yards total. Since the running is so infrequent, you get to catch them off guard looking for the pass and break a 20 yard run here and there. Even better is the way the short passing sucks in the defense. The coverages they call gets more aggressive and the computer starts to call more cover 2 and man/bump. Several games I had 100% completion on long and deep passes because the gameplan dinks away, dinks away, dinks away, and then BAM hit em with the longball while they're in cover 2.

Anyways, over the 10 year test period my makeshift run and shoot WCO offense racked up some decent numbers. Combined with a good defense (where else would I use my draft picks?), I won two bowls, lost two bowls, lost conference champ twice and lost a wild card once. All the other seasons were 9-7 or 8-8. Not bad, but not great....

But it was tons of fun. I think it really is possible for us to simulate offensive and defensive schemes if we can figure out which numbers to tweak to get the CPU and player hired coaches to call plays and react the "correct" way.

Oh yeah.... after I was done... I tried signing a postcamp cap casualty stud QB for kicks. Instant 4000 yard passing season with bowl win and 1st team...

[ewarrior18]

thanks for the tips. I have used it for 2 seasons with the cheifs and neil odonnel as my qb. its worked pretty good.