2016 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races

[murrayyyyy]

For some strange reason I'm really feeling COLLECTED in this race but he's outclassed in this field but hoping he settles in behind Lani and Laoban and makes a late charge. Same theory on Uncle Lino as above. Exaggerator got such a horrible start last time that I'm betting it won't happen again.

Probably only placing 1 bet. 5-3-7 or 5-3-1/2/4/6/7

I don't think anyone outside of 7 has a shot.

[QuikSand]

TwinSpires has a promo - your first WIN bet (up to $50) on the Preakness gets refunded if your horse runs second. I'm intrigued and will surely bet it.

I'm thinking EXAGGERATOR is the perfect profile for the play - the consensus 2nd best horse, likes the off track we may see, and benefits from the pace scenario, perhaps. Though I remain very interested in the 1...

[murrayyyyy]

Made my bet this morning and I stuck with the 5-3-1/2/4/6/7.

Probably won't pay a ton but I'm giving in to Exaggerator loving the mud and last I heard it's 100% chance of rain during the race tomorrow.

Very interested in this twinspires promo now with the same thoughts of him being top 2.

[QuikSand]

I'm in for the $50 on 5 EXAGGERATOR

[QuikSand]

Last I saw, Nyquist 1-1 Rxaggerstor 9-5

Lowest price on a second choice in a long time...at least Empire Maker (v Funny Cide)

[QuikSand]

Waiting to see the $...

[murrayyyyy]

Horse Win Place Show
Exaggerator $7.20 $3.20 $2.40
Cherry Wine $9.80 $4.20
Nyquist $2.20
$2.00 Exacta
5-1
$88.40

$1.00 Trifecta
5-1-3
$73.10

$1.00 Superfecta
5-1-3-11
$317.00

Ugh. everything went like I thought it would except the last 5 yards...

[QuikSand]

I hit the race pretty hard...a little disappointed with the triple payout, and I only had the super for 20 cents...but still pretty nice.

[JPhillips]

Nyquist is out for the Belmont. They aren't going to be able to give away tickets for this race.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Nyquist is out for the Belmont. They aren't going to be able to give away tickets for this race.

Still should be a good race at least but it's best to keep Nyquist out if the white cell count is off that much. He can always race in the Travers in a few months.

[JPhillips]

It was going to be hard to sell a non-Triple Crown race a year after a TC winner, but maybe they could have marketed a winner takes all angle. Without Nyquist it just isn't much of a draw. I'd expect really low attendance and TV ratings.

[QuikSand]

Belmont field is taking shape, it looks like exaggerator will be the heavy favorite here. I'm looking again at backing one of my Derby throw outs - I think DESTIN is live here, a good combination of tactical early speed and good distance breeding...and he might be upwards of 15-1 in the morning line (just guessing there). He could be my top play.

[QuikSand]

Early PP data:

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ntStakes16.pdf

[murrayyyyy]

I'll probably play the horse who gets the inside post between SuddenBN and Brody's Cause to win. Assuming if it's SBN he'll go off around 5-1, if it's BC I'm hoping for 15-1.

Mike Smith on SuddenBN? Hasn't he won the Belmont a couple of times?

[murrayyyyy]

2016 BELMONT STAKES ODDS
PP Horse Jockey Trainer *ML Odds
1 Governor Malibu Joel Rosario Christophe Clement 12/1
2 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 6/1
3 Cherry Wine Corey J. Lanerie Dale Romans 8/1
4 Suddenbreakingnews Mike Smith Donnie Von Hemel 10/1
5 Stradivari John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 5/1
6 Gettysburg Paco Lopez Steve Asmussen 30/1
7 Seeking the Soul Florent Geroux Dallas Stewart 30/1
8 Forever dOro Jose Ortiz Dallas Stewart 30/1
9 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Patrick Gallagher 30/1
10 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 20/1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 9/5
12 Brodys Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans 20/1
13 Creator Irad Ortiz Jr. Steve Asmussen 10/1

Creator is probably worth a look since his stable mate Gettysburg is in the race to just tire out other horses like in the Ark Derby. Probably sticking with SBN out of the 4 across the board. May also run a 4-11-13 box since Creator looked good until he got boxed in KD.

[QuikSand]

I don't know what to do with DESTIN now. I thought I'd get him loose on en easy lead (not as easy with GETTYSBURG) and I thought I'd get double digit odds (M/L says I won't). I have a track record of still digging on on horses like that (it's one of those psychological biases that I understand but don't know the name for) and I'm vulnerable to it.

I will be looking most closely at 2,4,5,10,11,12,13... so a lot of help that offers.

[murrayyyyy]

Link didn't work so here's another one.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...ntStakes16.pdf

Little worried that distance will get Destin if Gettysburg jumps him. Know the feeling as I just can't get of SBN since I said it immediately following the derby.

[QuikSand]

I guess STRADIVARI factors into the pace scenario as much as DESTIN does, he's got some early foot. I also wonder what Mike Smith will do on SBN... he's not exactly a back-of-the-pack sort of jockey.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I don't know what to do with DESTIN now. I thought I'd get him loose on en easy lead (not as easy with GETTYSBURG) and I thought I'd get double digit odds (M/L says I won't). I have a track record of still digging on on horses like that (it's one of those psychological biases that I understand but don't know the name for) and I'm vulnerable to it.

I will be looking most closely at 2,4,5,10,11,12,13... so a lot of help that offers.

I probably should not play cherry wine but probably throw him in as much as I enjoyed his races this year. Not thinking emotionally your picks are exactly the same as I like but may throw out huge favorite in pick 3 and exactas.

Race 6 on the day been following a horse called "a lot". Mott trained him until last race. Chad brown does now. Had been running at mile and over until last race. It was at 7. Had him at good odds. But I felt I was lucky to win as easy as I did. The big favorite had trouble that day. I saw the favorite green mask entered and knew he would be favored over a lot. Well, turns out a lot is the favorite in the race. All this typing to say to look at green mask at 8/1.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

Race 6 ... All this typing to say to look at green mask at 8/1.

He looks like an overlay to me at those odds, too. Nice way to start a Pick 6 ticket (where morning lines tend to drive the betting pools a lot) I'd think.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

He looks like an overlay to me at those odds, too. Nice way to start a Pick 6 ticket (where morning lines tend to drive the betting pools a lot) I'd think.

Never really thought about pick 6, but that makes total sense. Good luck.

[murrayyyyy]

Arkansas Derby 2.0

I'd like to thank France for having that extra money for me to bet on creator.

[QuikSand]

Despite really pushing hard on DESTIN ($100 win bet, a lot for me) I hit the race nicely with my only other bet - a $1 trifecta that paid better than $1300. I was really peeved that DESTIN got caught (as the race broke exactly the way I wanted) but I managed to swallow my sorrow in line for the IRS window.

w00+

[QuikSand]

Oh...I ended up using the 1 2 5 10 11 13 on my tri box. Had I just put the same array in for a Superfecta...the $1 super (where all my horses hit) would have paid $14K on a $1 bet. Sigh.

[TCY Junkie]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Despite really pushing hard on DESTIN ($100 win bet, a lot for me) I hit the race nicely with my only other bet - a $1 trifecta that paid better than $1300. I was really peeved that DESTIN got caught (as the race broke exactly the way I wanted) but I managed to swallow my sorrow in line for the IRS window.

w00+

My favorite race day of year and I was sick. Told my cousin to take derby picks that have posted here. Have Destin first instead of creator because my uncle is luckier than me and he liked that horse and I liked creator..... about an hour from track and got like 20 minutes to spare. Head into Houston but my gf says she is starving like 5 times. Only 1/3 way their so I feed her and watch the exacta I would have had numerous times hit.

We were talking about going to lonestar which is 3 hours away but I felt terrible. Nice enough she offered to go to lonestar with me so can't complain about having to stop to eat. Glad you got a nice piece of it!