Adrian Beltre: Future HOF?

[nilodor]

So I saw an article on SI's mainpage titled: Future Hal of Famer Adrian Beltre is missing one thing: A ring

Future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre is missing one thing: a ring | SI.com

And I was a little surprised that people consider him a sure fire HOF candidate.

I had always thought of him more as a borderline guy, excellent defensively, solid offense, but Albert Belle levels of crazy, and kind of underappreciated.

Link to his BR page:Adrian Beltre Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

What do you guys think? HOF or not?

[Logan]

Bunch of idiots over here shared their opinion on his candidacy.

[ISiddiqui]

Woot, I voted Yes for him in the previous thread as well.

The guy has a career WAR of 83.8, which is 56th all time. Yes, he's a HOFer. No question.

[Young Drachma]

Maybe eventually, but the way voters have been voting lately...seems like it'll be harder than it might have been in the past.

[lighthousekeeper]

Absolute first ballot HOFer. Better JAWS than fellow third basemen Brooks Robinson, Chipper Jones, Paul Molitor, Ron Santo. Has a chance to surpass George Brett in 3B JAWS. Winning smile.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by nilodor

...but Albert Belle levels of crazy...

Say what now? Where did this perception come from?

[Atocep]

The main thing working against him is 3rd base is the most under appreciated position in the game. However, he'll easily reach 3,000 hits if he stays healthy through next season and he's going to hit 450+ homers. That covers him as far as the old school guys go. Analytics love him. He'll get in.

[tarcone]

Only if he gets to 3000 hits and 500 HRs.

He is very good. But he didnt dominate for a stretch of 7-10 years.

He was just a solid guy. But not a HoFer.

[bhlloy]

Career Offensive WAR in the top 100 (good chance to pass Piazza this year, although played for longer) and defensive WAR in the top 15? At that position? Absolute no brainer.

Also, my opinion has clearly changed since the last thread (voted he needs to do more) although since then he's only batted well above .300 with around 70 HR, which probably sounds about right.

[flere-imsaho]

He should get in based on his antics with Elvis Andrus alone.

[aknott]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Say what now? Where did this perception come from?

Yeah, everything I've heard is that he's a great guy and teammate.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

He should get in based on his antics with Elvis Andrus alone.

He's a crack-up. Watch the next time he faces Felix Hernandez - they are best of buds off the field from his time in Seattle, and they battle like brothers on the field. Always lots of jawing back and forth between them when he's in the batter's box against Felix.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Only if he gets to 3000 hits and 500 HRs.

He is very good. But he didnt dominate for a stretch of 7-10 years.

He was just a solid guy. But not a HoFer.

So we shouldn't vote in any player that doesn't get to 3,000 hits and 500 home runs?

Beltre was a fantastic third baseman. His defense has been outstanding, and he's been a very good hitter, especially for the position. He may not be a top-tier Hall of Famer, but he certainly fits comfortably within the precedence that has been set for inclusion.

[aknott]

Beltre is a definite HOFer. Just because Craig Biggio got 3000 hits doesn't make him more of a HOFer than Beltre.

[tarcone]

Without a dominating stretch of play, yes, 3000 hits and 500 HRs.
A hall of Famer should be heads and shoulders above the rest.
But this is my opinion, and I don't vote.
The question was should he be. And not until he reaches those benchmarks.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by tarcone

The question was should he be.

No, that's not what the poll question was.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Without a dominating stretch of play, yes, 3000 hits and 500 HRs.
A hall of Famer should be heads and shoulders above the rest.
But this is my opinion, and I don't vote.
The question was should he be. And not until he reaches those benchmarks.

What dominating stretch of play did Brooks Robinson have that Beltre has not had?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

What dominating stretch of play did Brooks Robinson have that Beltre has not had?

I don't think people realize how high the hof bar has been for 3rd basemen in comparison to other positions.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by aknott

Beltre is a definite HOFer. Just because Craig Biggio got 3000 hits doesn't make him more of a HOFer than Beltre.

Bidge was more than just a hits compiler, asshat.

[ISiddiqui]

Regardless, he still isn't better than Beltre.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Only if he gets to 3000 hits and 500 HRs.
He is very good. But he didnt dominate for a stretch of 7-10 years.
He was just a solid guy. But not a HoFer.

Pretty much this.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Pretty much this.

I guess I don't get it then.

He's finished top 5 in WAR 4 times, top 10 five times. He finished in the top 10 positional players in WAR 8 times. He's currently ranked 5th in offensive WAR and 1st in defensive WAR among active players.

You look at the guys surrounding him in JAWS and they are all in the hall. His 7 year peak WAR was above Chipper (who is going into the hall IMO)

Beltre isn't getting to 3000 or 500, so if that's the criteria, stick a fork in him. I don't think it will be the criteria. He's done more than enough to get in IMO.

[Logan]

He doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer when I think about him, because I never considered him one of the best players at the position. Then again, there are a lot of other guys in the Hall where that description fits as well.

But when you look at the numbers, pretty much all of which have been posted here, there's really no debate. That's why "feel" doesn't (or shouldn't) work in baseball. I can admit that my perception of him as a player doesn't meet what he's actually done, and move past that.

[flere-imsaho]

I will never understand the baseball hall of fame.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Logan

He doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer when I think about him, because I never considered him one of the best players at the position. Then again, there are a lot of other guys in the Hall where that description fits as well.

But when you look at the numbers, pretty much all of which have been posted here, there's really no debate. That's why "feel" doesn't (or shouldn't) work in baseball. I can admit that my perception of him as a player doesn't meet what he's actually done, and move past that.

All I can say is good on you Logan.

I've had this discussion with a lot of baseball fans and almost universally they put Chipper in the hall and make excuses for why Beltre doesn't belong there. It drives me nuts. I wrote above that Beltre finished top 10 in WAR for positional players 8 times. Chipper turned the trick 5 times.

If Beltre isn't in, Chipper isn't in and we need to go ahead and get some of the other guys at 3B wiped out as well.

I think why he never got the respect he deserved in his peak had everything to do with his 48 HR season early in his career. It made everything else he did offensively seem weak by comparison.

The other problem was how the gold glove voting was done for so long. Rolen was a sensational defensive 3B, but Beltre was better in 2003, 2004 and 2005. Then he goes to the AL where Chavez is winning the vote year after year after year. . . The reality is Beltre should have 12 gold gloves, not 8. He won't win another (not with Machado around)

Give him a normal 25 HR season instead of 48 and the other gold gloves and he becomes a very good hitter and a sensational defensive player in the minds people who only "think" about numbers, not look at them.

[aknott]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Bidge was more than just a hits compiler, asshat.

I didn't say he wasn't. I just think Beltre is more of a HOFer than Biggio. Biggio was just a recent example that I came up with.

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Give him a normal 25 HR season instead of 48 and the other gold gloves and he becomes a very good hitter and a sensational defensive player in the minds people who only "think" about numbers, not look at them.

Actually, I think the 48 HR year could hurt him because it brings the steriod question into some people's minds.

[jbergey22]

He's in. If Chipper got in easily so will Beltre.

And the comment about him being as crazy as Albert Belle??? One of the best and most respected teammates in all of baseball from interviews with players, coaches, and teammates. Also, it takes a very serious injury to get him off the field. He plays hurt and plays the game like players did in 1960.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

That's why "feel" doesn't (or shouldn't) work in baseball.

And I'd argue the opposite (well, something approaching the opposite anyway): that the existence of "feel" is why the Hall matters at all.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And I'd argue the opposite (well, something approaching the opposite anyway): that the existence of "feel" is why the Hall matters at all.

Yep

[ISiddiqui]

Well in that case just knock the useless thing down.

[nilodor]

Sorry, was trying to get at Do you think he will get voted in, not does he deserve to be in. I agree with the advanced stats arguments, it seems like they point to a average hall of fame candidate. I just though he'd be an interesting discussion with that he doesn't have the major counting stats and I don't think he's been perceived as an all time great and may fall more into the good not great camp with the majority of the voters.

I was taken aback by the article that really suggested he's a no doubter as until I looked at his advanced stats I hadn't really thought of him that way.

[dawgfan]

I think Troy is right that his 48 HR season really skewed perception of him by the general public. You had a young, promising player that had put up a number of decent seasons - but nothing overwhelming - then pop for a huge offensive season. It seemed like he had arrived and was now going to be a superstar. But then he then signed a big free agent deal and changed teams and then proceeded to have five seasons where his hitting was only slightly better than league average, and the narrative quickly changed to how he was a "bust", and whispers about whether the 48 HR year was built off of performance-enhancers.

Never mind that his defense has been elite - fielding value is chronically underrated among the sporting public with rare exceptions - or that he was actually hitting fairly well when compared with other third basemen and when accounting for his home field hitting environment.

Even the strong hitting seasons he's put together since leaving Seattle haven't really changed the general perception. But if he'd never had that 48 HR season, I think he'd be viewed in a different light - instead of the guy that never lived up to that one year, he'd be the steady Eddie that's been a productive, valuable player.

[Fidatelo]

Should Steady Eddie be in a HoF?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Should Steady Eddie be in a HoF?

Eddie Murray most definitely is in the HoF .

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Should Steady Eddie be in a HoF?

When that steadiness is well above the average player, yes. There are credible measurements that include his defensive value which place his career accomplishments thus far well in the median of Hall of Fame third basemen.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

When that steadiness is well above the average player, yes. There are credible measurements that include his defensive value which place his career accomplishments thus far well in the median of Hall of Fame third basemen.

I'm not asking if his stats warrant inclusion in the baseball HoF relative to those of others that have made it in. I'm asking more generally: should a Hall of Fame include 'Steady Eddie's'? I'm not so sure it should.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I'm not asking if his stats warrant inclusion in the baseball HoF relative to those of others that have made it in. I'm asking more generally: should a Hall of Fame include 'Steady Eddie's'? I'm not so sure it should.

I guess that depends on how you define "steady Eddie". When you are consistently above-average and for a long time, I think that warrants inclusion.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I guess that depends on how you define "steady Eddie". When you are consistently above-average and for a long time, I think that warrants inclusion.

I agree. And put it this way, the definition of this type of "Steady Eddie" for me is Pete Rose (say whatever you will about his gambling, I don't think any one disagrees that if Rose didn't gamble, he deserves to be in the Hall).

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Without a dominating stretch of play, yes, 3000 hits and 500 HRs.
A hall of Famer should be heads and shoulders above the rest.
But this is my opinion, and I don't vote.
The question was should he be. And not until he reaches those benchmarks.

So the bar for Beltre to enter the HoF is to do something only 5 players have done before?

He's within the top 5 at his position as far as traditional stats go. He's been the best defensive 3rd baseman for a generation. He's surpass 3,000 hits sometime next year.

His 5 year peak averaged: .316/.364/.535 29 homers 96 RBI

At 3rd base.

There's no way he doesn't belong in the HoF. He's top 5 at his position. You'd have to believe in a tiny HoF to not see him as a hall of famer.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Logan

Bunch of idiots over here shared their opinion on his candidacy.

I figured someone resurrected my poll.

3 years ago it may have been a debate, at this point he's a no-brainer. He had a great peak (albeit a non-traditional arc) and advanced stats love him, he has great longevity and traditional stats, he has both a phenomenal defensive reputation and the awards to back it up, he was a great teammate and outside of the era he played in (and his nationality) there is nothing tying him to steroids. There is no rational argument against him being in.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I guess that depends on how you define "steady Eddie". When you are consistently above-average and for a long time, I think that warrants inclusion.

Exactly. As I posted above. . . Top 10 positional player in WAR 8 times. That isn't what I would describe as a steady Eddie. That's what I'd describe as high end consistency.

FWIW: He's started this season off well.

Last thing: I disagree 1000% with anyone who uses the "he doesn't feel like a hall of famer" stuff. Human perception sucks and sucks hard. Furthermore, human perception can be altered by awards people vote on or articles people write.

Give him the the gold gloves and all star games he has deserved in his career and maybe a WS ring and all of this changes.

If I asked a casual baseball fan (and maybe even some die hards) who had more seasons as a top 10 WAR positional player, Chipper or Beltre, I would be a vast majority would say Jones. They'd not only be wrong on that account, they would be way off.

Average 3B hall of famer: 67.5 WAR, 42.7 peak war (7 season), 55.1 JAWS

Beltre: 84.8 WAR, 48.8 peak, 66.8 JAWS

Screw perception. The reality is there in black and white.

[bhlloy]

And he has a WS ring if Nelson Cruz doesn't take a crappy angle to a flyball, not like he's never been close. Hit .300 with 2 HR in that series btw.

[claphamsa]

nothing relevant about WS success...its a team game.

[murrayyyyy]

Forgot to post this the other day.

Bud Selig reportedly ripped Rangers over Adrian Beltre's contract - CBSSports.com

According to a major-league source, former commissioner Bud Selig sharply criticized the Rangers at an owners meeting after the team signed Beltre to a five-year, $80 million free-agent deal in Jan. 2011; Beltre was entering his age-32 season, and Selig felt the team was taking an undue risk.

Where was Bud when we signed Choo?!?!