2013 Fantasy Baseball Thread

[Suicane75]

For stuff strictly fantasy, questions, answers, blah blah blah.

I'm feeling the itch a lot sooner this year, may jump into a slow draft league within the week.

Fixed to reflect the year we're in.

[QuikSand]

Playing in a league based on last year's stats might be an interesting twist...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Playing in a league based on last year's stats might be an interesting twist...

Heh... I am SO drafting Mike Trout in the 13th round.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Playing in a league based on last year's stats might be an interesting twist...

How would that work? Just draft and that's it?

I almost got into a league last year that started at midseason and used the first half stats.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

How would that work? Just draft and that's it?

I almost got into a league last year that started at midseason and used the first half stats.

Heh heh Suicane, Quik is referring to the year in your thread title.

[Suicane75]

[Suicane75]

Ok, I'll start with some random thoughts.

I aint touching Ryan Braun.

I like mocks but they're not usually reflective of where the top pitchers go in regular leagues. All it takes is gone guy to nab Kershaw or Verlander and the rest will start following. In my 10 team local I'm really praying for a back end spot so i can nab them both, or at least one of them and either Price/Strausburg. Seriously just considering going pitching for the first 8 rounds of that draft just for shits and giggles.

I'm in love with Cargo and McCuthcen and to a slightly lesser extent Tulowitski.

[QuikSand]

I'll toss out an idea... I'd like to play, and would run the league:

AL only league, 5x5 setup rotisserie scoring
8-12 teams
Standard 23 player roster, 7 player reserves
Auction if workable online, otherwise snake draft
Uncertain on keepers, I'd prefer to, but worry with new league
$500 to play
Prizes split something like 3500,1000,500

[Suicane75]

I would love to do something like that, but $500 is pretty much my entire FB budget and I just couldn't justify it.

[Bigsmooth]

Really looking forward to Fantasy Baseball season. Highly recommend you guys give daily fantasy a shot. Sites like Draftstreet and DraftKings are pretty good.

[Suicane75]

For anyone interested, I'm starting my first draft of the year tomorrow. 15 Teams, 5x5, 50 Rounds, no in season moves.

I'll be doing a running dynasty/diary here,
Martins Maulers, A 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Diary - Front Office Football Central

Feel free to comment, critique, fart, whatevs.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

I would love to do something like that, but $500 is pretty much my entire FB budget and I just couldn't justify it.

I expect that to be basically the response... for me, I just have trouble committing the time it takes to play roto BB well, when the stakes really don't merit it. I have a "for fun" league where I can win a few hundred bucks, and that's fine, but I think that some actual incentive might be what it would take to get me back to being really interested week by week.

Back when I was playing a lot of poker, I got close to getting a league like this together in person (actually for $1K per team) but we only got five firm commitments, and it sort of fell apart.

To me, the poker parallel is a strong one. Play poker for jellybeans or pennies, and it's just a yuk-yuk event. Play for stakes that matter to the participants, and it becomes a completely different game, a tremendous game. I think there's the potential for the same to happen with fantasy sports.

However, I realize that coming up with a large initial stake is a large barrier to entry. Probably dies on the vine.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I expect that to be basically the response... for me, I just have trouble committing the time it takes to play roto BB well, when the stakes really don't merit it. I have a "for fun" league where I can win a few hundred bucks, and that's fine, but I think that some actual incentive might be what it would take to get me back to being really interested week by week.

Back when I was playing a lot of poker, I got close to getting a league like this together in person (actually for $1K per team) but we only got five firm commitments, and it sort of fell apart.

To me, the poker parallel is a strong one. Play poker for jellybeans or pennies, and it's just a yuk-yuk event. Play for stakes that matter to the participants, and it becomes a completely different game, a tremendous game. I think there's the potential for the same to happen with fantasy sports.

However, I realize that coming up with a large initial stake is a large barrier to entry. Probably dies on the vine.

I agree with everything you said, it's just that my idea of high stakes and yours are a little bit different.

A $500 prize is big enough stakes for me to get involved and dedicated. A $500 entrance fee would have me sweating out my ears.

[Suicane75]

In keeping with my fubaring up the OP, a league that counted last years stats would be interesting.

[Chief Rum]

So, I am in a keeper auction 5x5 H2H eague where you can select eight players to keep. The values reset every spring, based on the previous two seasons, and you can only keep up to three players under $5 value. The total money cap is $280 per team.

I had a good 13-17 players under $5 so I knew that would be a complicated deal, but my five players above $5 were coming from a tighter group.

I would welcome comments on my thought process...

My 11 players above $5. Remember I can keep five of them. Prices listed.

OF Jacob Ellsbury ($32)
2B Dustin Pedroia ($28)
C Carlos Santana ($27)
OF Carlos Gonzalez ($26)
SP Jon Lester ($24)
3B Ryan Zimmerman ($22)
SP Ian Kennedy ($21)
C Joe Mauer ($19)
SP Mat Latos ($18)
1B Eric Hosmer ($13)
SS Jhonny Peralta ($7)

I ended up running with Pedroia, Santana, Gonzalez, Latos and Hosmer.

Pedroia was a position scarcity move, and I think he's still underrated at that price. Cargo was an easy choice. I ended up feeling a 25-year-old near ace in Latos was also an easy choice. The last two were hard, though.

I felt Ellsbury was too much of a risk at that price, so I dropped him. Lester's K-to-BB ratio has been dropping, and even though I think he'll be better than he was last year (very unlucky), I don't think he's worth $24. Same with kennedy--I feel his Cy Young run in 2011 was his career year, and he is a soft tosser in a hitter's park. Peralta was out from the start, as a SS on the border of starting at best, and named in the Miami bio-clinic scandal.

That left me with Santana, Mauer, Zimmerman and Hosmer for the last two spots. I decided to pick one or the other of Santana or Mauer, and that was a tough go. Mauer is cheaper and is very consistent. But I am rolling the dice that the younger Santana and his great second half are a harbinger of the elite hitter he may be about to become. So I kepth Santana.

Zimmerman versus Hosmer was very difficult. Zimmerman has the track record and plays 3B, a tough spot to get a good player. But he seems to get nicked up every year, he is a good not great player, and he's $9 more than Hosmer. Hosmer had an awful year last year, but everyone still seems to think he could end up an elite hitter. So I rolled the dice again on potential, and took Hosmer.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'll toss out an idea... I'd like to play, and would run the league:

AL only league, 5x5 setup rotisserie scoring
8-12 teams
Standard 23 player roster, 7 player reserves
Auction if workable online, otherwise snake draft
Uncertain on keepers, I'd prefer to, but worry with new league
$500 to play
Prizes split something like 3500,1000,500

Sign me up.

On a completely unrelated note: Gambling losses can be considered a business expense, right?

[Suicane75]

AL Only, 5x5, 10 team league drafting tomorrow night. I have the #1 pick. Miggy or Trout?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

AL Only, 5x5, 10 team league drafting tomorrow night. I have the #1 pick. Miggy or Trout?

Trout. More categories.

[TLK]

Any tips for someone that basically took spring training off (sleepers, injuries etc)? I have a draft tonight and basically only paid attention to the Tigers this spring. I'll be printing off a cheat sheet and hoping for the best.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Trout. More categories.

Trout will have many more steals obviously, but Cabrera will likely nicely surpass him RBI, HR and Average if you believe in regression. Runs will probably be close to equal as well. I already have Miggy on one of my two main teams so I bounce back and forth on putting all my eggs in one basket or splitting the difference. Plus, it's a lot easier to get cheap speed than cheap power without sacrificing average. I know I should probably go with Trout but for some reason I'm trying to talk myself out of it.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by TLK

Any tips for someone that basically took spring training off (sleepers, injuries etc)? I have a draft tonight and basically only paid attention to the Tigers this spring. I'll be printing off a cheat sheet and hoping for the best.

Granderson, Headley and Hanley Ramirez will all miss various amounts of time.

I'm of the belief that it's fine to go with one of the big aces early, but generally don't overpay early for pitching (though I tend to draft pitchers earlier than most).

Sleepers? Homer Bailey, Braves pitchers, Jordan Zimmerman, Yu Dravish. I like to get middling pitchers on good teams for the win prospects. I like guys like Jason Vargas, Chad Billingsley for exactly that reason. It used to be said to target NL pitchers and AL hitters but I think that theory is slowly eroding. You can get cheap speed late. Try and be aware of lineup position for counting stats. You may pass on Bourne to nab someone like Brett Gardner a few rounds later but be aware that he wont score nearly as many runs. Don't overpay for Elvis Andrus. Position eligibility is nice. Someone like Todd Frazier who can be slotted at 1B, 3B, OF for instance. Don't get nervous.

Depending on your bench situation keep prospects in mind. Oscar Tavares, Wil Myers, Anthony Rendon, Danny Hultzen, Billy Hamilton. All those guys could do damage this year.

Make up your mind on what your closer strategy will be going in. Some like to wait for the run to start and just fall in line, some choose to wait, and some like to grab them early. Last year I nabbed Kimbrel and Chapman very early in my NL only league and it worked out marvelously.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Trout will have many more steals obviously, but Cabrera will likely nicely surpass him RBI, HR and Average if you believe in regression. Runs will probably be close to equal as well. I already have Miggy on one of my two main teams so I bounce back and forth on putting all my eggs in one basket or splitting the difference. Plus, it's a lot easier to get cheap speed than cheap power without sacrificing average. I know I should probably go with Trout but for some reason I'm trying to talk myself out of it.

I don't think it is so clear. The question is, does Trout's advanatge in steals (which will be massive) counteract the smaller differences in power? Cabs will certainly outdo Trout in HRs and RBIs. He's a proven power hitter and hitting in the middle of the lineup.

That said, remember Trout didn't play the full season, missing pretty much the first month. So even if there is regression in his numbers, it likely ends up at least the same in the counting stats.

And as for runs, I think you should take a closer look at that. Trout was heads and tails better than everyone scoring runs last year, and that was with playing one less month. This year, he plays the whole season and the lineup he is in is even stronger than last year.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, FWIW, you're good going with either, TLK. Cabs and Trout are both excellent choices.

[Suicane75]

Yeah. Trout it shall be.

[Suicane75]

Took Trout 1st overall and watched......watched.......watched Jose Bautista slip....slip.....slip.....to 19th. I almost had an orgasm when he getting passed over then felt like my junk had been stomped on when he was taken right before me.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Took Trout 1st overall and watched......watched.......watched Jose Bautista slip....slip.....slip.....to 19th. I almost had an orgasm when he getting passed over then felt like my junk had been stomped on when he was taken right before me.

I hate it when that happens. You get so excited, think a guy is going to slip to you, and that person right before you gets him. I think I have hated on a team all season for that.

[panerd]

So let me throw a question out there about an auction keeper league. As I was discussing in the MLB thread I ended up getting Ryan Braun for three long term keepers. The league in up in arms because two of the keepers were waiver wire pick-ups at some point this season. Do you guys feel like fantasy players put way too much emphasis on the draft position/auction value of a player and not on actual performance?

For example in this league a guy paid $16 for Dan Haren and I picked Travis Wood up off the waiver wire for $5. In his mind Haren is more valuable but take the money and waiver wire acquisition out of the equation and there is no argument that Haren is a bust and Wood has at least some value. I guess my question is why is a late round draft pick in March so much "smarter" than a waiver wire pick-up in April after some baseball has been played?

In this case I traded Travis D'Arnaud (drafted) and Travis Wood and AJ Pollock (Waiver wire pick ups) for Braun.

[claphamsa]

question. Pujols... out for the year, do I drop him, or keep him for next year? (4 keepers)

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

question. Pujols... out for the year, do I drop him, or keep him for next year? (4 keepers)

That is a hard question, what other guys are you considering as keepers?

AL means DH and Pujols could still be potentially good at doing that.