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05-03-2013, 12:09 PM
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#1 | ||
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: C-Town
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The 139th Kentucky Derby
Rain is in the forecast - it's going to make for a sloppy track. Who do you guys like?
Crazy to see Baffert shut out of the Derby... I've been eying Orb up for a while - kind of disappointed he's the favorite. My prediction: 1) ORB 2) PALACE MALICE 3) NORMANDY INVASION Sleeper Horse: FRAC DADDY @ 50-1
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XBox Gamertag: Pronk32 FOOL-X - Cleveland Naps FOOL - Cleveland Cyclones SLOP - Cuyahoga Spiders |
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05-03-2013, 02:53 PM
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#2 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Haven't researched based on slop, but if we were talking normal conditions, I like the trifecta of...
1 - Revolutionary 2 - Verrazano 3 - (Semi Sleeper) Charming Kitten |
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05-03-2013, 03:35 PM
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#3 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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My trifecta box is
Orb, Goldencents, and NormanyInvasion
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05-03-2013, 03:54 PM
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#4 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Though.
I'm not sure how I cannot pick a horse named Java's War. |
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05-03-2013, 05:01 PM
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#5 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Some data attached...
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05-03-2013, 05:20 PM
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#6 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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I really liked VIOLENCE in the prep season, but he got injured and is out of the picture. ORB beat him in the FoY, but I wasn't overwhelmed by that effort. ORB winning the Florida Derby looked awesome to the eye, but the clock says it wasn't a serious effort. I think the public will reverse the top of the queue and make VERRAZANO the favorite at around 3-1. I agree he's a stronger contender than ORB, but I don't think either one offers value.
Among the serious players, I think the play is REVOLUTIONARY. The win in the Louisiana Derby was solid, I don't dismiss that competition (even if it was just a Grade 2). I also really like the workouts over the Churchill track, and he shouldn't mind an off track if that unfolds. Biggest drawback, for me, is Borel in the irons. He's fine, but he's a ticket to being an underlay on Derby day now, and I worry that while the 10-1 morning line is too high, REV might actually go off at 5-1 where there's not much real value. I will be watching the tote board closely on the #3, and if he hangs anywhere near that 10-1, I expect to [russianbillionaire]jump in it[/russianbillionaire]. I think there are other intriguing picks, but I will pitch my big value horse here also. You get a blazing workout, a trainer with multiple Derby and triple crown wins, a jockey with multiple Derby and triple crown wins, and very respectably bloodline to carry out his natural speed a classic distance, especially down toward the rail against a field that really isn't heavy on early foot. Have your attention yet? #2 OXBOW ran fifth last time out in the Arkansas, and that looks bad on paper -- but he's a press the pace style horse and got pinched out early... but still worked through traffic pretty valiantly and got reasonably well placed, despite being completely denied any chance to run his race. 30-1 in the morning line, and honestly I'm not sure that comes down a ton. I'll be putting together an exotic ticket, but right now it might look like: 3 REVOLUTIONARY --- 2 5 8 9 14 --- 2 5 6 8 9 14 15 16 20 Last edited by QuikSand : 05-03-2013 at 05:21 PM. |
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05-03-2013, 05:23 PM
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#7 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: C-Town
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As always, love your insight on the Derby QS!!
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XBox Gamertag: Pronk32 FOOL-X - Cleveland Naps FOOL - Cleveland Cyclones SLOP - Cuyahoga Spiders |
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05-03-2013, 06:19 PM
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#8 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Just re-watched the Arkansas Derby... I'm trying to come away understanding what happened to OXBOW, but it's tough not to like what you see from OVERANALYZE there too. A colleague told me if I don't bet on a horse named "overanalyze" I'm an idiot, as that is pretty much my calling card. She may be right.
Here's the video: Last edited by QuikSand : 05-03-2013 at 06:19 PM. |
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05-03-2013, 06:23 PM
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#9 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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By the way, there are video profiles of each horse on YouTube, with "2013 KY Derby Profile" in the title. Nice way to get a little absorbed.
Here's REVOLUTIONARY: That's a positively boner-inducing finish in the Withers. Last edited by QuikSand : 05-03-2013 at 06:26 PM. |
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05-03-2013, 09:01 PM
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#10 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Early betting has my guesses partially wrong - VERRAZANO getting no love at 11-1, and REV and GOLDENSCENTS vying as 5-1 co-favorites. Ugh.
2013 Kentucky Derby Live Odds | 2013 Kentucky Oaks & Derby | May 3 and 4, 2013 | Tickets, Events, News |
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05-03-2013, 09:28 PM
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#11 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Very surprised Verrazano is moving down.
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05-03-2013, 11:28 PM
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#12 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Amarillo, TX
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Every May I discover that for some reason I'm still confusing jockey Gary Stevens with actor Gary Collins.
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05-04-2013, 08:08 AM
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#13 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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10 or 15 years ago, VERRAZANO would be a throw out by most wise guys,on lack of seasoning. But it seems most of the old rules have been discarded since then. If he's really up near double digits, he'll get some win money fom me.
Beware, though, of an underlay in the exotics... He could be 10-1 to win, but still figure into trifecta and pick-x pools based on his morning line (very common). |
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05-04-2013, 09:23 AM
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#14 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Mid morning line s usually fairly reliable for where we will end up.
REV as tepid 5-1 favorite, VER at 9. Weird. ITSMYLUCKYDAY bet down to 9. He's my pick as the most overrated in the field... Got a plodding pace up front at Gulfstream and still couldn't close the deal? 48.4 - "plodding" might be too kind there, even. Maybe the bettors love that sizzling four panel workout in 53 flat, a pace that many barnyard animals could match? I know he had some good figs when running shorter races, but I didn't like him at 15, and seeing him at the same odds as VERRAZANO is just lunacy. Phony. I do see the attraction to NORMANDY INVASION, but bet down to 7 I think the value is gone. |
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05-04-2013, 09:41 AM
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#15 | |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
More amusing since the actual STEVENS G L apparently mistook himself for an actor for a while. He played "the other jockey" in the Seabiscuit movie, did okay in the role, and thought he had a Hollywood future, helping him decide to retire. Turns out even a fairly handsome and fairly well spoken 4-foot-8 guy isn't in quite as much demand as he had hoped. After doing an analyst gig a while, he is back into at least partial riding again. He's an excellent rider. |
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05-04-2013, 12:13 PM
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#16 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Made my bets. Long story short, most of my bets are heavily relying on Verrazano or revolutionary.
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05-04-2013, 12:34 PM
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#17 | |||||
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NJ
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So I made a bet on Bovada, $20 On Oxbow, but my bet receipt reads like this,
It doesn't have the payout listed, which I find odd. Have I done something wrong? |
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05-04-2013, 12:37 PM
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#18 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Amarillo, TX
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Quote:
It's unfortunate Tom Cruise wasn't casting for the Jack Reacher film at the time. He's the right scale. |
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05-04-2013, 01:26 PM
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#19 | ||||||
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Quote:
I don't know anything of Bovada, but I assume they pay the track odds... Meaning you get what he pays on site, not what was posted or predicted at the time of your bet. |
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05-04-2013, 01:28 PM
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#20 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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A friend carried bets in today... Down on a simple tribox 2359 so far.
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05-04-2013, 03:50 PM
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#21 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
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5-3-10 boxed this morning so I'll stick with it. Not sure if the 18 or 20 can win again in the mud from that far out.
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05-04-2013, 03:51 PM
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#22 | ||||||
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Las Vegas
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Quote:
Horse racing doesn't have fixed odds. |
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05-04-2013, 03:54 PM
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#23 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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After some work last night, I made some bet changes. So I'm in for:
3-8-14-16 tri-box 14 to win and a superfecta for 14-8-16-3 I dropped Normandy after watching some tape. So we'll see.
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05-04-2013, 04:00 PM
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#24 |
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Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NJ
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Thanks Quick & Murray, learn something new everyday.
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05-04-2013, 04:03 PM
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#25 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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And I have to admit, I usually avoid looking at the active lines but the money move has surprised me some as I expected Verrazano to go off at much worse odds in regards to payout so I went heavily into Verrazano.
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05-04-2013, 04:17 PM
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#26 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
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Boxed 3/14/15 and 3/9/14 for the trifectas, boxed a 3/14 exacta. Like I said. I like Revolutionary and Verrazano.
And I couldn't resist throwing a couple bucks on Java's War winning. |
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05-04-2013, 04:21 PM
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#27 | |
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World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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Quote:
Well, he did also star in Lucky. Unfortunately, Lucky wasn't very lucky keeping horses alive, or he'd had a paying acting gig for awhile. |
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05-04-2013, 05:19 PM
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#28 |
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Pro Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Madison, WI
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Can we live-blog a 2-minute race???
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05-04-2013, 05:37 PM
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#29 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Quote:
Guess not.
__________________
Board games: Bringing people back to the original social network, the table. |
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05-04-2013, 05:46 PM
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#30 |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: C-Town
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Bingo!! Beers on me tonight boys
__________________
XBox Gamertag: Pronk32 FOOL-X - Cleveland Naps FOOL - Cleveland Cyclones SLOP - Cuyahoga Spiders |
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05-04-2013, 05:46 PM
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#31 | |
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Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Of no particular interest
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Quote:
Did you place any money on Orb to win? |
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05-17-2013, 10:27 AM
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#32 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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SHAKE IT OFF
I'm playing the 1-2-6... using the chalk, along with the highest quality speed in 2 GOLDENCENTS, along with my still-value-pick 6 OXBOW (who ran a really solid race in the Derby...grumble grumble fucking palacemalice grumbe grumble). Last edited by QuikSand : 05-17-2013 at 10:27 AM. |
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05-17-2013, 10:40 AM
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#33 |
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Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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No concern about Orb starting on the rail?
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Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
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05-17-2013, 01:36 PM
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#34 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Being on the rail is fine for a rally-type, unless he gets lured into running forward with the early speed (some of which sits right off his shoulder at #2). By and large, post position doesn't undermine his setup a lot. He ought to sit five back by the half mile regardless of slot 1 or 12.
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05-17-2013, 11:15 PM
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#35 | |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: TX
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Quote:
I like Goldencents at 12 to 1 odds about. I had him in the SA derby and had 10 dollars in a future pool to get back 500. 49-1 odds. Thought he would have a good chance because I didn't see much speed in the derby, haha. Probably key goldencents in a small pick3 and then have a straight 1-2 exacta. hard to get excited when you have this big of a favorit. here are the double pays with pimlico special winner (for a 1 dollar) 1) 2.90 2) 24.70 3) 172.20 4) 27.60 5) 37.50 6) 50.40 7) 30.10 8) 30.10 9) 22.70 I was wondering Quick, how often do you go to the races?
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I try to open things I probably have no chance of opening. |
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05-18-2013, 04:45 PM
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#36 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Pretty live in the daily double. Have Orb on the back end with the 10'horse at 24-1 winning the front end. Been searching online for what the payout would be but can't find it.
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05-18-2013, 04:53 PM
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#37 | |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: TX
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Quote:
45.10 for a one dollar
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I try to open things I probably have no chance of opening. |
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05-18-2013, 05:02 PM
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#38 | |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
I can live with that considering the chalk is the second half. My other bets for the Preakness May- PIM R12 2.00 USD WIN 6 May- PIM R12 2.00 USD EXA 1/6,9 May- PIM R12 1.00 USD TRI 1/6,9/6,9 May- PIM R12 1.00 USD TRI 6/2,9/2,9 May- PIM R12 2.00 USD EXA 9/4 May- PIM R12 1.00 USD TRI 5/2/8 |
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05-18-2013, 05:26 PM
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#39 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Oxbow !
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05-18-2013, 05:26 PM
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#40 | |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: TX
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Quote:
__________________
I try to open things I probably have no chance of opening. |
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05-18-2013, 05:31 PM
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#41 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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What did the exacta pay?
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05-18-2013, 05:33 PM
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#42 | |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: TX
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Quote:
150.70 for 1 dollar
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I try to open things I probably have no chance of opening. |
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05-18-2013, 05:54 PM
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#43 |
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Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Ugh. Wish I took the exacta with the tri.
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05-18-2013, 06:09 PM
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#44 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Decent win here (win) but missed on the toteboard lighting exotics. I did end up using the 9 in a few triple tickets, but left the 5 out completely. Loved seeing that slow quarter mile, STEVENS G L knew just what to do there. I don't think the plan was "gun it" but if the 2 is going to be a pussy about it and the 8 is going to inexplicably disappear, just go ahead.
Last edited by QuikSand : 05-18-2013 at 06:44 PM. |
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05-18-2013, 06:22 PM
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#45 | |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seven miles up
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Quote:
That's funny because that's just about what Stevens said post race.
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06-08-2013, 07:47 PM
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#46 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Good news - had PM to win
Bad news - only for 20, just enough to break even after chasing lots of bullshit exotics that all missed Fun day, very thin crowd though |
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