Help me pick the SB winner

[digamma]

Cincy, Minnesota and Houston would be my top three of what is left because of their pass rush ability.

[sterlingice]

I think Denver and New England are harder places to win at than Atlanta and San Fran so Washington has the edge there. However, Seattle is scary. They seem almost as likely to knock off Washington and Atlanta as they are to get beat by Washington. And, while Washington has won 7 in a row, only 1 has been against a playoff team and that was a 3 point win against the Ravens at home.

Houston and Baltimore have much easier games this week but each has lost to their 2nd round opponent handily in the last month (Texans got creamed in New England and Baltimore lost at home to Denver in a game that wasn't as close as the 17 point final score).

For what it's worth, the couple of odds sites I can see from work (at lunch) have Houston with a reasonably better chance than the other two to win the Super Bowl.

I think I'd hang my hat on the Texans and hope they can regain the earlier season form

SI

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think Denver and New England are harder places to win at than Atlanta and San Fran so Washington has the edge there. However, Seattle is scary. They seem almost as likely to knock off Washington and Atlanta as they are to get beat by Washington. And, while Washington has won 7 in a row, only 1 has been against a playoff team and that was a 3 point win against the Ravens at home.

Houston and Baltimore have much easier games this week but each has lost to their 2nd round opponent handily in the last month (Texans got creamed in New England and Baltimore lost at home to Denver in a game that wasn't as close as the 17 point final score).

For what it's worth, the couple of odds sites I can see from work (at lunch) have Houston with a reasonably better chance than the other two to win the Super Bowl.

I think I'd hang my hat on the Texans and hope they can regain the earlier season form

SI

If I picked 7th, then I think Houston would be an easy pick. I pick 10th though.

[Maple Leafs]

Originally Posted by Marmel

Houston
Baltimore
Washington
Minnesota
Cincy
Indy

I'd swap Minny and Cincy but otherwise agree.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Marmel

If I picked 7th, then I think Houston would be an easy pick. I pick 10th though.

The order still holds.

Houston
Baltimore/Washington

If any of those three fall, you get in on them. If you're left with Minnesota, Cincinnati, or Indianapolis then, yeah, it's pretty bleak. So, now I just look at it with elimination in mind.

I think Indy had their emotional game last week and is out this week. They'd be #12 to me. Nice story with next to no chance to win. Minnesota barely beat Green Bay last week when they had home field and everything in the world to play for and the Packers were pretty much set. Maybe the Packers can't stop Peterson but that's the only way Minnesota wins. That and lots of turnovers. Cincy has a couple of ok road wins and seems like a Jekyll and Hyde team. Hope to catch lightning in a bottle there. They all are crappy picks but the Bengals seem the least crappy of the lot.

SI

[Marmel]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

The order still holds.

Houston
Baltimore/Washington

If any of those three fall, you get in on them. If you're left with Minnesota, Cincinnati, or Indianapolis then, yeah, it's pretty bleak. So, now I just look at it with elimination in mind.

I think Indy had their emotional game last week and is out this week. They'd be #12 to me. Nice story with next to no chance to win. Minnesota barely beat Green Bay last week when they had home field and everything in the world to play for and the Packers were pretty much set. Maybe the Packers can't stop Peterson but that's the only way Minnesota wins. That and lots of turnovers. Cincy has a couple of ok road wins and seems like a Jekyll and Hyde team. Hope to catch lightning in a bottle there. They all are crappy picks but the Bengals seem the least crappy of the lot.

SI

Yeah, I think this is exactly how I am leaning but I might give Indy a slightly better shot than Minnesota.

[Desnudo]

Washington is the only team on that list with a top level QB. They have the toughest first round game, but I'd much rather bet on RG III, a good rb, and an improved defense than the other teams. Houston is smoke and mirrors - Schaub isn't taking them anywhere.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Dola. I Mis-read the initial question. Thought that we were picking to win. In order to make the SB, I would say

Baltimore
Minnesota
Washington
Houston
Cincy
Indy

+1

[QuikSand]

Baltimore
Houston
Washington
Minnesota
Cincy
Indy

[Marmel]

When my pick came up this morning, I was able to choose from:

Washington
Indy
Minnesota

The easy pick from that group was WASHINGTON.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, definitely

SI

[Marmel]

...and that ensures that Washington will not make the SB. Sorry Skins fans. Whether I've picked top, middle or bottom of this pool, I have never picked a SB participant. Also, in the 6 seasons of this pool, the #1 or #2 pick has never won the SB (they have made it, but lost). Sorry Denver and New England fans.

[Marmel]

also, here is the full list for this season:

1 Dana - New England
2 Curt - Denver
3 Anthony - San Francisco
4 Max - Atlanta
5 Pete - Green Bay
6 Chris - Seatte
7 Mike B - Houston
8 Mike O - Cincinnati
9 Gary - Baltimore
10 MARMEL - Washington
11 Brian - Indy
12 Stephen - Minnesota

Mike O with quite a stretch pick of Cincinnati.
...and maybe because I was that guy who picked Atlanta 2 years ago when they were the #1 seed, but Max is not going to be happy with finishing 4th and picking Atlanta.

[Logan]

Baltimore is a steal at 9. They're getting healthier, have a lot of playoff experience, and were a stripped pass away from the SB last year.