NFL Week 16 Thread

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

Basically, Wisconsin vs Baylor in ROY Bowl?

Luck just set the rookie passing record and turned around a team that was 2-14 last season.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Luck just set the rookie passing record and turned around a team that was 2-14 last season.

He "turned around" a team that had high records for years and years prior to that one season and had a lot of talent, and was reinvigorated by casting off a lot of the aged dead weight. It;s not like he turned around a perennial 8-8 club or a annual losing club like the Bills, Chiefs or Jags.

Luck has done some great things, but let's not overemphasize what he did. RGIII and Wilson both should get more credit, to my mind, for their rookie seasons. I rank them RGIII, Wilson, Luck in that order.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

He "turned around" a team that had high records for years and years prior to that one season and had a lot of talent, and was reinvigorated by casting off a lot of the aged dead weight. It;s not like he turned around a perennial 8-8 club or a annual losing club like the Bills, Chiefs or Jags.

Luck has done some great things, but let's not overemphasize what he did. RGIII and Wilson both should get more credit, to my mind, for their rookie seasons. I rank them RGIII, Wilson, Luck in that order.

The Colts pretty much completely cleaned house. They rank 29th in average age weighted by snaps for their offense; slightly younger than the Redskins. This is almost a completely different team than the one that was winning during the Manning era. Even the most die hard of Colts fans probably thought they were at a minimum 2-3 years away from sniffing the playoffs.

I think what RGIII and Russell Wilson have accomplished is incredibly impressive, but Luck really hasn't had the offense simplified for him much whereas Wilson was handled with kid-gloves the early part of the season and Shanahan has a strong track record of working with QBs. Luck and RGIII have both been leaned on much more heavily than Wilson to win games for their team and Luck has done it during a coaching change.

I don't know how I'd rank them at this point, but in the big picture I strongly believe what Luck has done as at least as impressive as what RGIII and Wilson have done.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Matthean

The problem being if SF wins next week, they are a 5th seed.

Bad for them, I think.. still could be a dangerous team though.

[gstelmack]

Let's look at the QB stats if we're going to debate them for rookie of the year. This doesn't include late comebacks where I think Wilson gets the edge, but my initial impression is that Luck has a lot of yards because he throws a lot, but has also turned the ball over quite a bit. The big surprise with Wilson and RGIII is that they AREN'T turnover machines as rookies, which I think gives them a boost. But on to stats:

Player	G	GS	Comp	Att	%	Yds	Avg	TD	INT	Sck	SckYd	Rat	Ratt	Ryds	Ravg	RTD	Fum	FumL	Att/INT	Att/Sak	Att/TD
RGIII	14	14	249	375	66.4	3,100	8.3	20	5	29	204	104.1	114	752	6.6	6	12	2	75	13	19
Luck	15	15	325	599	54.3	4,183	7	21	18	40	239	75.6	57	254	4.5	5	10	5	33	15	29
Wilson	15	15	237	374	63.4	2,868	7.7	25	10	27	162	98	84	431	5.1	3	5	3	37	14	15

RGIII is great at avoiding INTs, Wilson a hair better than Luck. RGIII and Wilson have better completion percentages, yards per attempt, and are better runners. The only place Luck comes out on top is total yards and a slight edge on avoiding sacks. Where he may get the nod is his team is the most surprising, and he's the leader of the team, so he gets credit there. But Wilson and RGIII are off to the playoffs as well (RGIII may miss out, but if he goes he's a division winner, unlike the two wildcards for the other teams), and Wilson just dismantled one of the better teams in the NFL.

The Colts' only wins of note were very early wins over Minnesota in week 2, and Green Bay in week 4, before either team hit any kind of stride. Maybe we count Miami in week 9 as their best win. Otherwise they've beat up on the lower half of the NFL, splitting with the Jaguars, beating the Titans twice, the Browns, the Bills, the underachieving Lions, and the Chiefs. RGIII is on a 6-win streak that has included wins over the Cowboys, Giants, and Ravens. Wilson has beat the Patriots, Minnesota when they were starting to come together, the Bears, and last night destroyed the 49ers. Over the last 3 weeks, the Wilson led offense has scored 150 points.

Put me in the camp of considering Luck third in this. I might almost give the nod to Wilson as the 3rd round pick who no one thought could do this, but RGIII seems to be having the best season right now.

[Buccaneer]

That makes sense then. I didn't realize Luck's Comp% was pretty low.

[Desnudo]

Plus Seattle's strength of victory is the best in the league

[MIJB#19]

Where would you rank Luck, Wilson and RGIII on the 'down by 4 with 2 minutes left, stuck at their own 10 with no timeouts remaining' argument?

Additionally, unlike Wilson and RGIII, Luck had to work with an offense without a running game. How does that factor into the debate?

[Desnudo]

I would much rather have rg iii or wilson in a must win game if my life depended on it.

And the colts had the easiest schedule in the league and have the point differential of a much much worse team. I think Luck will be good, but if you've watched all three I don't see how you could say he's nearly as polished as rg III or Wilson. If he was picked in the 3rd round and there wasn't this manning replacement story you would hardly be talking about him.

Plus how many of his near league leading ints put the colts in a position where they had to come back against the likes of the chiefs or other dregs?

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Where would you rank Luck, Wilson and RGIII on the 'down by 4 with 2 minutes left, stuck at their own 10 with no timeouts remaining' argument?

Wilson:

1. Seattle Seahawks at 03:40
2. 1-10-SEA 3 (3:40) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 86-Z.Miller.
3. 2-10-SEA 3 (3:35) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 85-A.McCoy to SEA 14 for 11 yards (53-N.Roach). Penalty on CHI-90-J.Peppers, Neutral Zone Infraction, declined.
4. 1-10-SEA 14 (3:28) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 24-M.Lynch to SEA 24 for 10 yards (33-C.Tillman). FUMBLES (33-C.Tillman), recovered by SEA-3-R.Wilson at SEA 21. 3-R.Wilson to SEA 21 for no gain (54-B.Urlacher).
5. 2-3-SEA 21 (2:45) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch left end to SEA 32 for 11 yards.
6. 1-10-SEA 32 (2:14) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 18-S.Rice (21-M.Wright).
7. 2-10-SEA 32 (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end pushed ob at SEA 45 for 13 yards (54-B.Urlacher).
8. 1-10-SEA 45 (2:01) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end ran ob at CHI 49 for 6 yards (90-J.Peppers).
9. Two-Minute Warning
10. 2-4-CHI 49 (1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 18-S.Rice.
11. 3-4-CHI 49 (1:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin to CHI 43 for 6 yards (55-L.Briggs). PENALTY on SEA-68-B.Giacomini, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 49 - No Play.
12. 3-14-SEA 41 (1:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 89-D.Baldwin to CHI 48 for 11 yards (99-S.McClellin).
13. 4-3-CHI 48 (1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 86-Z.Miller to CHI 41 for 7 yards (54-B.Urlacher).
14. 1-10-CHI 41 (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-S.Rice to CHI 14 for 27 yards (24-K.Hayden).WATCH HIGHLIGHT
15. Timeout #2 by SEA at 00:32.
16. 1-10-CHI 14 (:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 81-G.Tate for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld.WATCH HIGHLIGHT
17. Timeout at 00:24.
18. 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Wilson just dismantled one of the better teams in the NFL.

He was asked to throw all of 21 passes. The team ran the ball 39 times for 176 yards. Wilson threw for 170. I don't doubt he's a star in the making, but he wasn't even asked to do half of the work if you factor in his 6 rushes.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Wilson:

It's not like Luck isn't known for his heroics either, see Lions game.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Matthean

He was asked to throw all of 21 passes. The team ran the ball 39 times for 176 yards. Wilson threw for 170. I don't doubt he's a star in the making, but he wasn't even asked to do half of the work if you factor in his 6 rushes.

Did you watch the game?

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs scenarios for week 17. For teams that play in the 4:25 or 8:20 slot, I listed results of 1:00 slot teams first.

Atlanta
#1 seed

Baltimore
BAL win + NE loss => #3 seed
BAL win + NE win/tie => #4 seed
BAL loss/tie => #4 seed

Chicago
CHI win + MIN loss/tie => #6 seed
CHI win + MIN win => OUT
CHI tie + MIN loss => #6 seed
CHI tie + MIN win/tie => OUT
CHI loss => OUT

Cincinnati
#6 seed

Dallas
DAL win => #4 seed
DAL loss/tie => OUT

Denver
HOU win + DEN win/tie => #2 seed
HOU win + DEN loss + NE loss/tie => #2 seed
HOU win + DEN loss + NE win => #3 seed
HOU tie + DEN win => #1 seed
HOU tie + DEN tie => #2 seed
HOU tie + DEN loss + NE loss/tie => #2 seed
HOU tie + DEN loss + NE win => #3 seed
HOU loss + DEN win/tie => #1 seed
HOU loss + DEN loss + NE loss/tie => #2 seed
HOU loss + DEN loss + NE win => #3 seed

Green Bay
GB win => #2 seed
GB tie + SF loss/tie => #2 seed
GB tie + SF win => #3 seed
GB loss + SF loss + SEA loss/tie => #2 seed
GB loss + SF win/tie => #3 seed
GB loss + SF loss + SEA win => #3 seed

Houston
HOU win => #1 seed
HOU tie + DEN loss/tie => #1 seed
HOU tie + DEN win => #2 seed
HOU loss + NE loss/tie + DEN loss => #1 seed
HOU loss + NE loss/tie + DEN win/tie => #2 seed
HOU loss + NE win + DEN loss => #2 seed
HOU loss + NE win + DEN win/tie => #3 seed

Indianapolis
IND win/loss/tie => #5 seed

Minnesota
CHI loss + NYG loss/tie + MIN win/tie => #6 seed
CHI loss + NYG loss/tie + MIN loss + DAL loss/tie => #6 seed
CHI loss + NYG loss/tie + MIN loss + DAL win => OUT
CHI loss + NYG win + MIN win/tie => #6 seed
CHI loss + NYG win + MIN loss => OUT
CHI tie + MIN win/tie => #6 seed
CHI tie + MIN loss => OUT
CHI win + MIN win => #6 seed
CHI win + MIN loss/tie => OUT

New York Giants
NYG win + CHI loss + MIN loss + DAL loss/tie => #6 seed
NYG win + CHI loss + MIN loss + DAL win => OUT
NYG win + CHI loss + MIN win/tie => OUT
NYG win + CHI win/tie => OUT

San Francisco
SF win + GB loss/tie => #2 seed
SF win + GB win => #3 seed
SF tie + GB loss => #2 seed
SF tie + GB win/tie => #3 seed
SF loss + SEA loss/tie => #3 seed
SF loss + SEA win => #5 seed

Seattle
SEA win + SF loss + GB loss => #2 seed
SEA win + SF loss + GB win/tie => #3 seed
SEA win + SF win/tie => #5 seed
SEA loss/tie => #5 seed

Washington
CHI loss + MIN loss + WAS win/tie => #4 seed
CHI loss + MIN loss + WAS loss => #6 seed
CHI loss + MIN win/tie + WAS win/tie => #4 seed
CHI loss + MIN win/tie + WAS loss => OUT
CHI win/tie + WAS win/tie => #4 seed
CHI win/tie + WAS loss => OUT

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Did you watch the game?

No, but did he come on to block the FG, or help hold Kaepernick to 19 of 36 passing? All I'm saying is Luck doesn't get the benefit of being on the 4th best rushing team or having the best scoring defense. Wilson has both. Indy on the other hand has the 22nd rushing attack and the 26th scoring defense while playing a much crappier schedule. Let's also not forget Indy had the 23rd scoring defense even with Manning so none of this rose colored Indy has always been awesome stuff. They were clearly on a downswing and needed an overhaul for a reason. Manning getting hurt just accelerated the process.

[Wolfpack]

Luck's been a great QB so far, definitely worth the #1 that the Colts used on him. He's also been very clutch and has all the stats to support him. However, the knock I have against him is that he almost throws himself out of games that he has to turn around and win. Yes, he has to throw a lot just because the Colts can't win any other way, but I've not really seen very many superior game performances from him. He's excelled at saving himself and his team, though. With all the success in spite of the INTs, it does indicate he's got the right temperament (no memory) to handle all the adversity.

RGIII is probably the best all-around player of the three with the ability to run and throw in all situations and produce a possible touchdown on any play where he's the focus. He's probably also been the one who's played the most consistent from beginning to end.

Wilson has probably had the most help from his teammates of the three, especially early on when they were trying not to force him to do too much. Seattle's defense kept them in a lot of games when the offense had difficulty until they found some way to get themselves in a position to win. Lately, though, everything for Seattle's been clicking. Wilson doesn't have the numbers, but he has probably the best intangible qualities of the three and he probably landed in the best situation for him: small media market where there was little outside pressure on the staff on how to work with him, an offense with a strong running back and decent receivers, a ferocious defense, and a lack of an incumbent QB except by dint of contract signing which gave him enough of a chance to get the job in training camp.

Based on that, I'm leaning to RGIII as the ROY to this point, which is hard to say because I'm very solidly in Wilson's camp (fellow alum and all) and enjoy watching him play. With the Panthers having another poor year, I've temporarily become a Seahawk supporter because of him.

[cuervo72]

Re: scenarios. I know this is quibbling, but CHI/MIN really don't have anything to do with WAS and the #4 seed.

Re: Luck/RGIII. I'm biased having seen more WAS games and living in the general vicinity. But it seems to me that the IND turnaround, while impressive, isn't really a miraculous turnaround of a 2-14 team, as they weren't really a 2-14 team. I mean, they essentially tanked by not playing a QB worth crap. They've exceeded expectations, but I don't think the increase in wins tells the entire story. Oh, they're also -42 on point diff, so I think they've been really fortunate.

The Redskins...I'm still wondering exactly how they're doing what they're doing. Their O-line by all rights shouldn't be any good. I don't know if the 6th-round Morris is the real deal or not. They lost their #1 TE and while their receivers are ok, I don't think they're any great shakes. Yet...damn, those points.

I still think their defense is shaky missing Orakpo and with a secondary that should really be exposed in the playoffs. They're on a nice streak, but it's been against some flawed (or downright terrible) teams.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Re: scenarios. I know this is quibbling, but CHI/MIN really don't have anything to do with WAS and the #4 seed.

I prefer the simple "WAS win/tie -> #4 seed", actually, but the games aren't played simultaneously, meaning the scenario for WAS is dependant on what happens with CHI and MIN first. It wouldn't surprise me if WAS has made the playoffs before the WAS-DAL game kicks off.

Similarly, Minnesota qualifies with a win, no matter what Chicago will have done in the earlier timeslot.

[SteveMax58]

I think there are 2 questions worth asking on RGIII, Luck, Wilson.

1. Who is the ROY?

For me, thats RGIII. His game has made the Redskins' rushing attack even more potent due to the need to contain him if he has the ball. Couple that with his incredible accuracy & ability to read the defenses he has seen (so far) and I think the numbers are not lying to us on this guy.

Wilson has outperformed his draft grade and really does look like a star in the making. He also does benefit (imo) from the best supporting cast but that doesn't mean they are sniffing the playoffs without him.

Luck has by far the worst supporting cast as evidenced by the loss of Manning last year and the fact that they really didn't improve their roster for this year (cut ties with some vets that will give them cap space to get better inthe next few years but not this year).

2. Who would you rather have right now, knowing what you know right now?

I still go with luck here. All things being equal, his game is conducive to a long lasting career at the NFL level and his poor completion % means almost nothing to me. This is a kid that is asked to win every game with his arm and he is doing that. He certainly couldn't do that without a great WR like Wayne, but outside of that, this guy is the real deal and will be putting up Peyton-like numbers at some point. Though, I've always felt he will be just a notch below Peyton when all is said & done (not that you can't get to the HoF being a notch below Peyton).

RGIII is perhaps the most talented but his ability to stay healthy scares me. I see great things for this guy but only for a handful of years where everything clicks & he isn't on the sideline. We see the same issues of longevity at HB and while he isnt running 20+ times a game, he's dropping back with the ball & getting hit some number of times in addition to his 5-10 carries in a game. Defenses will make a point to hit him as he continues to run those option fakes and will eat a 30 yd gain on the HB to rattle the QB.

Wilson has a real knack for running when he needs to, but only when he doesn't need to take a hit to do so. He has a healthy "fear" (for lack of a better term) of getting clobbered and I think it will serve him well if he keeps it. Having said that, I see him as a productive QB but not somebody that can make a bad team a playoff team, like I see the other 2.

[Abe Sargent]

Wilson impressed me so much last night with his smartness as a QB. For example, on s2nd and long, he rushed and slid, only getting to 3 and 1, but saved himself, rather than crashing into a defender and getting the first down - saving himself a major hit. They picked up 3rd and 1. He had a lot of smart 3rd down conversions all over the place to sustain long drives. The guy has a lot of football intelligence, and that really attracts me to him. He has done for the Seattle in part because he's aware and sharp at a vet level.

[RainMaker]

While I'm rooting for the Bears to get in, I won't be that upset if they miss out. The team really isn't that good and will get clobbered by either San Fran or Green Bay in the 1st round. While I like Lovie Smith, he probably needs to move on as they just can't compete with elite teams with horrible offenses every year. He's shown he is incapable of putting together a good one.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

While I'm rooting for the Bears to get in, I won't be that upset if they miss out. The team really isn't that good and will get clobbered by either San Fran or Green Bay in the 1st round. While I like Lovie Smith, he probably needs to move on as they just can't compete with elite teams with horrible offenses every year. He's shown he is incapable of putting together a good one.

I'm not much of a Lovie fan. I've gotten to the point where I have a hard time even watching Bears games because Lovie-ball is boring and stale. He has never taken a risk and it almost seems like he coaches for 8-8 or 9-7 seasons.

Tice was a terrible hire (as expected) as offensive coordinator and Lovie really hasn't shown the ability to make the correct hire for that spot.

For those wondering here are the Bears weighted offensive rankings under Lovie:

2004 - 32nd
2005 - 27th
2006 - 26th
2007 - 26th
2008 - 23rd
2009 - 28th
2010 - 25th
2011 - 31st
2012 - 22nd

If the Bears miss the playoffs this year they'll be the 2nd time to miss the playoffs after starting 7-1 and that will be 5 of 6 years since the Super Bowl trip. I'm hoping Emery has the power and the desire to clean house this offseason, but considering the McCaskeys are the ones that wield the power in the Bears organization I fully expect someone like Norv Turner will be our next coach.

[Atocep]

As a side note, a friend of mine is a big Bears fan and was a huge Lovie supporter until the end of last season. When I was bitching about the offense last season he pointed out (just as Lovie did) that the team rushed for more than 2k yards. I then pointed out that the Saints did as well while also managing to throw for more than 5k. He didn't understand how that was possible. That is also the point when I was finally able to get him to realize just how far behind the rest of the league the bears are offensively.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Matthean

No, but did he come on to block the FG, or help hold Kaepernick to 19 of 36 passing? All I'm saying is Luck doesn't get the benefit of being on the 4th best rushing team or having the best scoring defense. Wilson has both. Indy on the other hand has the 22nd rushing attack and the 26th scoring defense while playing a much crappier schedule. Let's also not forget Indy had the 23rd scoring defense even with Manning so none of this rose colored Indy has always been awesome stuff. They were clearly on a downswing and needed an overhaul for a reason. Manning getting hurt just accelerated the process.

I figured you didn't because if you had, you wouldn't have made the 21 completion comment. Put luck up against the 49ers defense and let's see what happens.

[Jas_lov]

It's set up nicely for the Packers. Bye week, NYG are out, SF has to come to GB in January. Atlanta as a #1 seed doesn't scare anyone and nobody beats Rodgers in a dome in January. Seattle could be tough but Rodgers still hasn't let that failmary game go.