The Foz vs Sack Attack NFL Playoff Bet Thread..

[SirFozzie]

SackAttack and I have had a competition going on all season on the Madden Facebook game's NFL Prediction game.. a competition I'm winning at this point by about 75 points, (or about 60% of the maximum points available per week), so it looks like I'm going to take the regular season title.. but since SA has had a couple of real bad weeks earlier in the year, he thinks that he can beat me at playoff predictions.. so naturally, we're putting our money where our mouth is:

Terms of the wager:

Wild Card Round: We pick all four games (straight winner), and rank them on a scale of 4 (most confident) to 1 (least confident). (10 points available)

Divisional Round: We again pick all four games under the same terms (1-4 scale, 10 points available)

Conference Championship Round: Pick both games, each game worth 5 points

Super Bowl: Pick winner, worth 10 points.

Tiebreaker: Closest to the actual amount of points scored in the superbowl.


What's at stake:

If SackAttack wins: Foz changes his sig to congratulate SackAttack and I buy him a game on Steam.

If Foz wins: SackAttack congratulates SirFozzie via sig, and a forfeit to be determined later.

GAME ON, SA, you're goin down again!

[SackAttack]

The man is delusional, what can I say?

In 14 weeks (since we each had a week where we forgot to make predictions), I'm 10-4 against him straight up.

Foz, you remember the old poker saw about "If you can't spot the fish, you ARE the fish"?

Hiya, fishie.

[SirFozzie]

You best be careful, this fishie's got teeth, and is gonna chew ya up and spit ya out

[SackAttack]

That 10-4 record suggests to me that the best you're going to be able to accomplish is gumming uselessly on my spleen.

Perhaps you need some Dental Enhancement Substances?

[SirFozzie]

Alright, the matchups are now known, as is the ultimate fate of this playoff bet (namely, me winning)

Saturday:

New Orleans @ Seattle (4:30 PM)
New York @ Indianapolis (8:00 PM)

Sunday:

Baltimore @ Kansas City (1:00 PM)
Green Bay @ Philly (4:30 PM)

Picks due, let's say, noon saturday, SA?

[SirFozzie]

My picks:

New Orleans (4) @ Seattle

Putting maximum points on this, as it's the biggest no-brainer in the history of earth (TM that annoying guy on the radio commercials). New Orleans are a 2 TD favorite on the road (and it goes to show that automagically giving division champions homefield in this round is absolutely stupid.

Hope the money from this game makes up for losing the 8th pick in the draft, Seachicken fans.

Baltimore (3) @ Kansas City

Again, Baltimore is several games better then KC was this year, so why the hell does Baltimore have to travel to KC, just because the Chiefs won a bad AFC West?

Here's who the Chiefs beat this year:

San Diego
Cleveland
49ers
Jacksonville
Buffalo
Arizona
Seattle
Denver
St Louis
Tennessee

Not exactly murderer's row, now is it?

Not to mention the numerous times they basically shit the bed (the 31-0 loss to San Diego, the comprehensive loss to the Raiders when they had a chance to be the three seed in the final week)

Pick's easy-peasy to make.

Green Bay (2) @ Philly:

Admittedly, this is a bit of a gut feel pick. I don't think Mike Vick is 100% (both with the injury he suffered and the ones earlier in the year). I think the Eagles entered this time of the year on a bit of a downer, so, this pick is a thought that I want to see how they bounce back mentally before I pick them at all.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis (1)

Pick's going this way for several reasons. The Jets have entered a tail spin after the supposed "Game of the Year" between the Pats and Jets on Monday Night Football, they've been surrounded by drama (the foot-fetish thing with Ryan, the Gunnergate, etcetera).. I couldn't go with all four road teams winning the playoff games (has that EVER happened?), and most importantly, when in doubt, look at the quarterbacks. On one side, you have Peyton Manning. The other, Mark Sanchez. Who do you trust in a tight game? I don 't think many people will choose the Sanchize.


Balls in your court, Sack. Show me what you got.

[SackAttack]

New Orleans (4) @ Seattle

Saints have shredded the 'hawks once already this season. I don't see any reason why they couldn't do it a second time.

On the other hand, I'm not convinced that the Seahawks are as bad as their record; they only lost two games this season that I would've picked them to actively win. They're the worst of the playoff teams, for sure, but I don't think they've got 7-9 talent, either.

That said, New Orleans is still going to destroy them. Again.

Baltimore @ Kansas City (3)

I'm not sure why Foz is giving the Chiefs crap here. San Diego had the #1 offense and defense in the NFL this season, and Oakland swept the division. That's half of KC's losses right there, and serves as an indicator of the kind of talent that division has, W/L record notwithstanding.

Baltimore went 7-1 at home, but only 5-3 on the road. They lost to Cincinnati on the road (putting up just 23 points against them all season) and barely beat Buffalo at home. Why isn't Foz giving them crap for struggles against the weak sisters?

I'm going KC here.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis (2)

Indy may be flawed, and Big P may not have the weapons at his disposal he's accustomed to, but the Jets were held to fewer than 10 points in four of their five losses, all games in which they failed to score a touchdown.

I just don't trust their offense.

Green Bay (1) @ Philly

Green Bay's defense is absolutely beastly. Philly's is...not.

If Green Bay's defense plays to form, Philly's done in the first round. I just don't see them prevailing in a low-scoring affair. Their best shot is to try to hang 24+ on the Packers and dare their offense to keep up.

Not sure they can swing that, honestly.

[SirFozzie]

so after this weekend, one of us will be up three. Readers? Who you got here?

[MIJB#19]

It's interesting that the swinger for now is the game that seems to be the biggest wildcard of the bunch. The Ravens are likely the slightly better team (and have the W/L to support that), but playing on the road turns it into a coin flip situation. I'm surprised neither of you two went with the outsmarting the other guy and picked the Jets or the Seahawks. Also, I'm shocked that neither of you picked the Eagles. Home field advantage is huge in the NFL, especially if the visiting team isn't better than the home team.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

It's interesting that the swinger for now is the game that seems to be the biggest wildcard of the bunch. The Ravens are likely the slightly better team (and have the W/L to support that), but playing on the road turns it into a coin flip situation. I'm surprised neither of you two went with the outsmarting the other guy and picked the Jets or the Seahawks. Also, I'm shocked that neither of you picked the Eagles. Home field advantage is huge in the NFL, especially if the visiting team isn't better than the home team.

Jets' offense is why I didn't take them. They're just not reliable enough to bet money on.

Seahawks...I said in my post I felt like they were better than people were giving them credit for, but I didn't think they were good enough to beat a Saints team that has been very good of late. Oops.

As for the Eagles/Packers matchup, I don't think "the visiting team isn't better than the home team."

Besides. My "outsmarting the other guy" play was KC over BAL.

[SirFozzie]

This just in: WE R STOOPIDS

[SirFozzie]

Well, we did slightly better then we did on Saturday.

We both got Green Bay beating Philly right, 2 points to me, 1 point to SA.

But in the big game of the week (at least from the picking contest standpoint), Baltimore beat Kansas City and that puts me firmly in the lead in the contest (3 points to me, score 5-1)

Next post will have the Divisional Round games (still, same format, 4-3-2-1)

[SirFozzie]

Saturday:

AFC: No. 5 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at No. 2 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) (4:30 PM, CBS)
NFC: No. 6 Green Bay Packers (11-6) at No. 1 Atlanta Falcons (13-3) (8:00 PM, FOX)

Sunday:

NFC: No. 4 Seattle Seahawks (8-9) at No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-5) (1:00 PM, FOX)
AFC: No. 6 New York Jets (12-5) at No. 1 New England Patriots (14-2) (4:30 PM, CBS)

[SirFozzie]

Seattle Seahawks (8-9) at Chicago Bears (4)

Ok, I admit the Seachickens shocked the world last week. Thanks to Marshawn Lynch grabbing a Starman straight from Super Mario Brothers, and a "hey! Someone removed this giant fork from my back!" game from Matt Hasselbeck, the Seapigeons sent the heavily favored Saints back to New Orleans, crying in their fruity Mardi Gras drinks.

Needless to say, the factors which led to Seattle winning over the Saints do not apply here in round 2. There will be no Seahawk crowd loud enough to move seismic meters. There will be no "Down to our sixth string RB' issues with the Bears offense. And Seattle weather in winter is no picnic, but let's put it this way, if Seattle's winter weather is a 1 on a scale of 1-10, Chicago's wind and weather conditions will be somewhere in the range of 67-72.

Brian Urlacher may be planting that fork right back in Hasselback's back.. but it's only in preperation for devouring him raw.

Now, I admit, it would be hilarious should Seattle pull off a second miracle, and if Green Bay wins the day before, having the NFC Championship game being played at a .500 team's stadium. But I wouldn't put any money on it.

I've been wrong before. I'll be wrong again (and probably sooner then you think). But I don't think I'm wrong here. Chicago in a rout. I don't get any extra points for calling it, but say, 31-10.

New York Jets (12-5) at New England Patriots (14-2) (3 Points)

Look.. the Colts were not the Colts of old. They were beaten up, and down. Peyton Manning is not the Peyton Manning of yesteryear. Their top target was thrown at one time.

And they were still two mistakes away from beating the Jets (the botched coverage on the Kickoff Return, and actually GIVING the Jets another play thanks to calling Timeout).

And here's something that passed unnoticed due to the last minute drive. Rex Ryan called timeout to freeze Adam Vinatieri's would-have-been game winning FG attempt. Rex... Rex.. Rex... Do you not remember history? Adam Vinatieri has hit more clutch field goals then the Jets have had scandals this year.

I swear, I could read Ryan's mind as they called that timeout. "Har Har Har, now we're in Vinatieri's head! He's gotta think about this, we're gonna freeze him but good!".

Can anyone remember the last big-time kick Vinatieri missed? (actually, for those of you.. has he EVER missed a big-time kick?

Rather than use the timeout to try to freeze an unfreezeable kicker, save it, because if he makes it, you're gonna need it, and if he misses it, the game is over anyway..

The Jets survived, true. But they're coming in with the same level of bombast as the Jets last trip to Foxboro. We remember how that turned out. I think the Jets will play BETTER then they did then.. but then again, they hardly could play worse...

Patriots win this one, 28-17.

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3) (2 Points)

The Packers played in familiar conditions against the Eagles. They were one Michael Vick not quite enough air pass from losing. They're playing a dome team on dome turf, a team that had a week's rest to heal those bumps and briuses from the season, and playing against a completely different QB.

I think that the Packers keep this close, but Matty Ice and the Atlanta Home Cooking is enough. Falcons 24-20.

Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (One point) (12-4)

Ok.. this one I bounced back and forth on. Both teams are basically the same.. The records were the same, they have a lot of the same backgrounds (defenses that will SMASH you but good if you lower your guard for an instant, Offenses that do just enough to beat their opponent. They even know each other well, (third-time game this year)..

You know in fighting games, there's this thing called a mirror match? Yeah, we got it here. In fact, what I'm afraid of is by the end, the two teams will merge together in an unholy union called the Ballsburgh Reelers... *shudders*... I think it comes down to a lasts second field goal, and at heinz field, that's a nightmare.

I expect this to be a low-scoring, drag em out, knock down, three yards, and a cloud of blood and body parts game. I wanted to go with baltimore.. picking all four home teams is BOR-FREAKING-ING.. but home-field is the advantage here. Steelers take it, 13-10.

[SackAttack]

Seattle @ Chicago - 4 points

I don't look at Chicago and see a Super Bowl team. I don't look at Seattle and see a team that can pull off shocking playoff upsets in consecutive weeks, either. Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

Green Bay (3) @ Atlanta

Aaron Rodgers was the Pack's leading rusher in the first matchup between these two teams, with just 51 yards. I don't think James Starks is gonna put up 120 yards again this week, but I think he ought to be able to top the 26 yards Brandon Jackson managed the last time around, and I think that's probably enough to put the Packers over the top. Also, James Jones needs to not drop sure touchdowns.

New York @ New England (2)

Dear Jets: I know you won the first matchup, but you got fucking DESTROYED the second matchup. Brady's gonna throw about six touchdowns and then point and then waggle his luxurious mane in your general direction afterward.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (1)

Basically because home field got tossed out on its ass last week, I expect normalcy to mostly reassert itself this week. It's gonna come down to the last possession.

[SirFozzie]

So, we both get our 1 pointer right, Pittsburgh over Baltimore, (6-2)... However, Aaron Rodgers makes it very easy for the Pack to killify the Falclons, and that hurts, most of my lead goes down the drain, 6-5.

I can earn one more point then SA (his 4 and 2 pointer games are left, and my 4 and 3 pointers are left), but it'll be close entering championship week.

[SackAttack]

I'll take the Packers and the Jets for Championship Week.

[SirFozzie]

Man, this is not good.

I don't want to go the cheap method, (take the teams that SA is picking, and thus guarantee wins.. Let's work this out.

The Bears are an underdog at home. One of the playoff manifesto rules (tm Bill Simmons) Is that when in doubt, look at the QB's. Aaron Rodgers has moved up to be an elite playoff QB this season. Jay Cutler.. should have a mininum of 2 TD's and/or 2 INT's. THe question is, which side does he fall on? The big deal about Cutler is that he makes two "What the fuck" throws that are going to be TD-INTs a game... the key thing is the defense actually needs to make those INT's.

At some point, you think the Packers are going to run out of go juice, they've been playing six, win or go home games in a row, at some point, the tank is going to hit E, right? Normally, I'd give the Bears a boost at home due to the weather.. but come on, this is the Packers we're talking about. As I type this, NFL Films is trying to resurrect John Facenda from the dead to speak about the Frozen Tundra of Soldier Field.

I don't like taking a road team in such a big game, but they're favorites for a reason. Packers 27-21.

That brings us to the AFC game. Now, if I'm trying to be a cheap bastard and lock Josh out , the play is to take the Jets (no matter what, I'd be ahead after the conference round, and would only have to match his pick to win the wager).

The Steelers Defense is basically a mash unit at this point. Polamalu does NOT look 100%. The Ravens were able to pound the hell out of the Steelers early, and LT will get the ball early and often.

But, again with the QB's. Sanchez has to play well. If he doesn't.. if he reverts to form and starts throwing balls that you're going to need ladders to get to, then the Jets cannot win. THey become one dimensional, and that one dimension is going to run into a steel curtain. I think he plays ok, but I'd trust the Steelers QB more than Sanchez

Also.. watch the coaches. We've only had two WTF coaches moments ala Andy Reid (Bill Belichick's panic fake punt that basically sent the Jets clear last week, and Jim Caldwell's timeout against the Jets)... gee, I'm seeing a pattern here.I admit, I'm probably letting my personal dislike of the big buffoon who coaches the Jets (and my natural antipathy for anything New Yawk).. but.. I don't see Mike Tomlin playing into Rex Ryan's hands in this one.

I don't like the pick (gotten my hands burned twice on the Jets so far, so I keep wanting to pick them just so they don't fuck me over again)..

But.

Pittsburgh 20-14.

Urgh.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to throw up

[SirFozzie]

So, going into the superbowl, Foz has a six point lead over SA.. looks grim as the fishie has apparently swallowed the shark...

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

So, going into the superbowl, Foz has a six point lead over SA.. looks grim as the fishie has apparently swallowed the shark...

When the fishie chokes to death, he'll realize the error of his ways.

[SirFozzie]

Well, it comes down to this. Super Bowl Sunday, the last football game of the 2010-11 season (and maybe the last football game for quite a while).

This is a tough one...

First, to get my bias out of the way.. Pittsburgh is the team I dislike second-most in the NFL (the Jets, of course, are #1).

Here's the thing.. in the traditional one week between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl, I would have felt a lot more confident in taking Green Bay. Pittsburgh is doing it with a lot of players not at 100%.

Ben Rothelisberger (funny, one of the words Firefox suggested when I spellchecked this was "Spitsbergen") is the master of the "You look at the stats and think he had a shitty day, but they won" game.

I think for the Steelers to win, they need to manage the game. I think Green Bay's offense can put up numbers against Pittsburgh's defense, so the key is going on long-clock killing, defense slaying drives.. I'm not sure they can do that enough.

Green Bay, 24, Pittsburgh 20.

[SackAttack]

Just call me Parker Lewis, baby.

I can't lose either way.

[SirFozzie]

He's taking the Steelers.. if they win, he's crushed, but at least he gets a game out of it from me (and continues my reign of sig bet losses)..

if the Packers win, yeah, he has to congratulate me and change his sig, but um.. he'll be too busy dancing around the house like a maniac going WOOHOO WE WON THE SUPERBOWL

[SirFozzie]

and I win. Congrats to me on the victory, and congrats to SA for his team's victory

[SirFozzie]

And yeah, He's changed his sig.. I know I should have chosen the right to MAKE the sig for him