OT - Fantasy Football - "Buying Low" Candidates

[QuikSand]

It seems that every year, there are players who get off to slow starts, and get eclipsed by upstarts or unheralded players. In the first couple of weeks, I frequently see fantasy football teams overreacting to the early results -- releasing mid-round draft picks, that sort of thing. (There is still a legend around the week two release of Priest Holmes after two weeks in 2001... when the team' arch-rival then picked him up and rode him to the league finals)

Anyway... with decent players hitting the waiver wire, and teams losing faith in some of their supposed "star" players - maybe it's time for a well-reasoned discussion of the opportunities that this creates in fantasy football. Who are guys who are worthy of a trade overture... or a waiver wire pickup... or whatever?

A few names that come to my mind off the top of my head: Marshall Faulk, LaDaininan Tomlinson, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, Donovan McNabb, Rich Gannon, David Boston, James Thrash, Tony Gonzalez. Not all are going to bounce back, I'm sure... but some of them will.

Any more thoughts?

[Radii]

I'm not a big fan of Warrick Dunn really in fantasy football, because of the whole TJ Duckett thing. I think Atlanta showed yesterday how they want to use the two backs rather well. Duckett was the red zone back, and Dunn had the ball between the 20s. If you're in a deep league I can see picking up Dunn but I just don't think very much of him as a fantasy back right now.

David Boston is offically on the block in my league, and I'm considering making an offer for him, I need a better 3rd WR. I have McNabb in a different league and I have no idea what to do about it. I know I'm not releasing him, that much is certain.

[Travis]

I'm not sure if you can really have Thrash or Dunn in that mold, just because of T.J.'s role in Atlanta, and Thrash is just the best of the rest that they call WR's down in Philly, as Lewis and whomever is playing RB seem to be the primary's anyway.

Gonzales, I'm still waiting on, and hopefully he fully recovers from his injuries and gets his role back in that KC offense. The Priest factor means he won't get as many touches as a few years ago, but I think he'll be back within the next few weeks, though I'm sure a lot of owners would listen to an offer about now.

Boston and Dillon are two more I own in various leagues, and I'm hoping they bounce back, though I'd be more inclined to listen to an offer on Boston than on Dillon. It just seems that there aren't many 'new face' running backs tearing it up right now that would be sitting on the free agent list if you're in a league of 8+ teams.

As for McNabb, as I somewhat asked in another thread, I'm scared he could be this year's version of Culpepper from last year, but that said, any owner worth spit doesn't give up on a QB with a cannon arm and the ability to lead his team in rushing week in and week out. I still truly believe all they need in Philly is a true #1 WR and a lot of their offensive struggles would go away.

So far, I've seen a lot of people run out to pick up Boldin asap, which is fine, as he'll probably top 1,000 yards and 6-8 TD's as Arizona doesn't have much else, and Blake (if he can stay healthy) has always thrown a beautiful deep ball.

Once Minnesota settles on a RB, they'll fly off the shelves only to be released 3 weeks later as Bennett returns.

Darrell Jackson proved this week that he doesn't even need Koren Robinson on the field, and I think DJ was overlooked in a lot of leagues because of Robinson this year.

Trent Green is another I was laughed at for picking last year, but he's somewhat quietly being a force again this year even with Tony not being his regular self.

While I probably wouldn't take one, Jake Plummer is a guy that in each league could probably garner you some decent talent in return, as there probably is at least one owner who will see Denver's scores from the past two weeks and see potential. Not sure what I see in him, but if nothing else, he's being allowed to run an offense that's not totally relying on him, which could allow him to post some big numbers down the stretch once he's truly comfortable in the system. He looked pretty good yesterday until he went down, though I've heard nothing about his injury since, so have no idea on his timetable for return.

William Green could be available for a song right about now, though I'm willing to bet he'll still be around that 1,000 yard mark at the end of the season. Mark Brunell? Could be an interesting pickup, just hope the stars align whenever you start him and have the Leftwich pick up email saved and ready to send. Will Olandis Gary remember how to be a viable RB soon? In big league's he's probably already gone, but he'll put up some decent numbers soon. Might not be the next coming of James Stewart though

Remember when Peerless Price was going to be the next big thing? How many owners are going to be patient enough for that to pan out, or willing to trade him for a more 'reliable' wideout right now? Same situation with the St. Louis duo while their QB situation might get scrambled. I've got Holt, kept him over Boston and still think it'll end up being the right movie..........I hope. Peyton Peyton Peyton, where did you go to start the year. Why hasn't Harrison gotten over 100 yards yet even though he's already got 90 catches. Only 1 touchdown in 2 games through the air? Hit the panic button now! And who knows, maybe even Vinny will light it up soon, wait, he already did, but who noticed?

[TroyF]

A few names that come to my mind off the top of my head: Marshall Faulk, LaDaininan Tomlinson, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, Donovan McNabb, Rich Gannon, David Boston, James Thrash, Tony Gonzalez. Not all are going to bounce back, I'm sure... but some of them will.

I expect Faulk, Tomlinson, Dillon and Gonzales all to bounce back.

I'd be leery of Dunn, McNabb, Gannon and Thrash. (I guess McNabb and Thrash are a package deal. If McNabb comes back strong, Thrash should do well)

I wouldn't touch David Boston with a 2,000 foot pole. I didn't like him at the start of the year, I like him less now. People didn't realize how many balls he was dropping last year in Arizona. He has MONSTER potential, but he'll have to prove to me he has some desire to use it before I consider trading for him. (unless the offer is just too good to refuse: "You want Quincy Carter for Boston? OK"

I thought the Raiders would be hurt without Porter and said so last week. Many laughed it off and said it wouldn't be that noticeable. Well, 103 yards and 3.65 yards per pass attempt at home, against the Bengals. . . just a bad game? Maybe. I wouldn't count on it though. He won't be that bad the rest of the year, but he isn't the lock he was last year either.

You should probably add Peerless Price, Jerry Rice and Tim Brown to the list as well. All have had fairly slow starts. I think Price will pick it up. I'm not so sure about the other two. (again, it goes with Gannon)

TroyF

[Honolulu_Blue]

I'm worried about Gannon. Very worried. He's penciled in as my #1 QB. Luckily a strong perfromance by the Buffalo Bills (Touchdown Travis and Moulds) and the phoenix-like rebirth of The Edge enabled me to pull out a victory this week.

At the moment, I have two capable back-ups in Trent Green and a late round pick-up Marc Bulger. I am not sure which of the two to start, but I think I'll put Gannon on ice until Porter is back. Unless the match-up is really favorable (see: Detroit or Phoenix).

I also spent one of my late round picks on Michael Bennett. If he does come back in Novemebr as the latest rumors seem to have it, it would be a huge boost to the squad. Quite a nice three-headed running-back monster in James, Henry, and Bennett.

So far, so good. It's early yet, though.

As for cuts, I'd get rid of Ricks. He dropped what seemed to be a dozen passes yesterday, which was par for the course for the Lions. His starting role is very much in jeopardy. He's on this week's "cut" list.

[Kodos]

Primelord tried to get McNabb from me, but I politely declined.

[Samdari]

I am worried about McNabb. Very worried. He has looked almost like the pre-9:45 last night Quincy Carter. Still, I'd take a chance if I could find an owner willing to part with him cheaply enough. In my league featuring the most healthy ribbing, the league loudmouth actually said, "you will regret passing up McNabb for Portis later in the season." Wonder what he'd want for McNabb now?

I would not touch Boston with a 10 foot pole either. Writers in San Diego have been quesitoning his weightlifting habits. Not that he has not worked hard enough, but that he has bulked up so much, two things are happening: his body is crumbling under all this weight, and he has lost his ability to separate from NFL cornerbacks. Apparently his top speed is there, but quickness is gone.

While it is early to call his fall from grace Warneresque, I don't expect him to ever get 'it' back. This foot thing is not going to heal in 10 days, its going to bother him all year.

Anyone reading this from Radii's league, just ignore those comments. They didn't happen. Boston is great. Trade for him.

Has Dillon been that bad? He had a terrible week 1, but 80 yards and a TD is a respectable total from week 2, and considering he accomplished while sitting most of the second half.

I keep hoping the owner in my league will release Onterrio Smith, but he is too shrewd for that. I would think he would be the best cheap buy at this point. I expect his carries to gradually increase until week 5 or 6 when he becomes the primary back. I think he's probably the best hope in this category right now.

I expect Faulk, Tomlinson, Gannon to bounce back and be starting caliber fantasy players, but not quite play to their draft status. Aware Dillon owners will not be too down on him. Gonzalez I have no idea. Thrash, I would not have touched no matter what. He's just not an NFL number 1, and Andy Reid wants desperately to make Pinkston be Philly's. No Philly WR should be depended on as a regular starter, but I would have given that advice before the season. I think what you have seen so far this season with Dunn is what you are going to get - a candidate to sub for your top backs in bye weeks.

[Maple Leafs]

Some "buy-low" candidates who aren't really first-round names, but would be worth a look:

WR Quincy Morgan - a young receiver with great talent on a team that in theory should be able to move the ball. Lead the NFL in YPC last year. He hasn't done anything in the first few games. Neither did Plaxico last year.

WR Koren Robinson - was benched last game, but it didn't get much publicity. Some less aware owners may assume he just had a bad game, so his 50 total yards on the season looks bad. Get him now.

WR Peerless Price - should get better as he gets more confortable, and could be explosive once Vick gets back.

QB Trent Green - if the offense is going to keep putting up 40+ points a game, he has to score some points eventually. Remember, a shovel pass or screen to Priest still counts as a pass TD.

TE Todd Heap - defenses will be keying on Jamal Lewis now.

[Sublime]

I actually dropped David Boston, in an FOFC league, and picked up Peter Warrick instead. I mean i was optimistic before the injury (heel or something right?), and even after the poor performance in week one i was still optimistic. But now i have a feeling he'll be in an out of the lineup and I'm just not willing to chance it, i might as well try to pick up someone who will play with some consistency.

[Vince]

Ok, thinking along these lines, I offered a fellow owner Willie Green and Koren Robinson for LaDanian Tomlinson. He declined, and offered this counter-proposal which at first glance I dismissed completely. What do you guys think?

I give:
Jamal Lewis
Willie Green
Koren Robinson

I get:
LaDanian Tomlinson
Peerless Price
Amos Zereoue

I feel that Robinson > Price, and Green > Zereoue. But is Jamal Lewis going to stay this good? And can LT possibly stay this bad? He looked great when he got touches last week...but San Diego's D looks like it couldn't stop Arizona right now, and if they're always playing from behind, they're never going to be able to get LT the touches they need him to for them to be a successful team and for him to be a successful fantasy back.

EDIT: We start the following:

QB
RB
RB/WR
WR
WR

and I've got M. Faulk, Lewis and Willie Green at RB, and K. Robinson, C. Chambers, R. Smith, T. Brown, Stallworth and Kev. Johnson from Cleveland.

[TroyF]

Vince,

The trade is another one that is tougher then it looks, but I wouldn't do it. I think your third guy (Green) is much better than his third guy (Z-Man)

TroyF

[Tex Schramm]

I'm starting to think Price is being written off too quickly. He hasn't even played a game with Vick yet, and when Vick is in there it completely changes the way a team plays defense. If it were a conventional QB, i wouldn't think this way, but when Vick gets back defenses will have to shift focus to shutting him down as the no. 1 threat. That means DB's having to be wary of running downfield if Vick tucks the ball and starts running--also safeties playing up to the line of scrimmage (one of which is assigned to shadow Vick all day) instead of moving over to help double-team an explosive wideout like Price. Receivers can only be as good as the QB's getting them the ball.

I also think Gannon is going to have a subpar year. I had him on my team last year and he carried my team, he was just awesome. But the guy's old, and in fantasy football when in doubt always go younger. Come to think of it that whole team's old, minus Jerry Porter and he's hurt anyway.

Curtis Martin just looks awful, and I really think he's done for good. I hope Santana Moss is for real, though.

There's an interesting column on cbssportsline.com (don't know if it's been mentioned already) which shows stats from the previous two years and players who had a slow first two weeks, only to explode and have great fantasy years. Really good stuff, you should check it out.

I think it's insanity to trade any top-flight fantasy player based on what he does in the first two weeks of the season. It's way too early to panic, and the first two weeks of the NFL season are always unpredictable anyway.

[Vince]

Thanks for your response on this and the D thread Troy. What do you think of my original proposal? Koren and Willie Green for LT?

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by TroyF
I thought the Raiders would be hurt without Porter and said so last week. Many laughed it off and said it wouldn't be that noticeable. Well, 103 yards and 3.65 yards per pass attempt at home, against the Bengals. . . just a bad game? Maybe. I wouldn't count on it though. He won't be that bad the rest of the year, but he isn't the lock he was last year either.

Troy, I gotta poke fun here...you gonna work this one into every football thread? Maybe you should just start a new topic, type out your call on Gannon and the Raiders and how good it's looked so far, and we can have SkyDog sticky it.

CR

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Troy, I gotta poke fun here...you gonna work this one into every football thread? Maybe you should just start a new topic, type out your call on Gannon and the Raiders and how good it's looked so far, and we can have SkyDog sticky it.

CR

I'll admit it Chief. It's selfish, stupid pride. It wasn't that someone disagreed with my assessment. It was that they felt the need to insult me in the process. Even going as far to post in another thread just to piss me off. What can I say? It worked. At least I have the satisfaction of knowing I was right for a week.

I'll drop it for now. I go 3-11 next week, I may be forced to bring it up again to boost me ego.

TroyF

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Vince
Thanks for your response on this and the D thread Troy. What do you think of my original proposal? Koren and Willie Green for LT?

Not bad. I expect Koren will have a big year, but LT was a top 5 pick in every league I'm aware of. I can't imagine he'll be this bad the rest of the season. He should blow the doors off of Green. If you have the depth at WR (which it seems like you do), I think it's a trade that can help both teams.

TroyF

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by TroyF
I'll admit it Chief. It's selfish, stupid pride. It wasn't that someone disagreed with my assessment. It was that they felt the need to insult me in the process. Even going as far to post in another thread just to piss me off. What can I say? It worked. At least I have the satisfaction of knowing I was right for a week.

I'll drop it for now. I go 3-11 next week, I may be forced to bring it up again to boost me ego.

TroyF

Heh heh I don't mind it, so long as you're honest about why you mention it this much.

I didn't read that Porter thread too much since I had already hashed out that issue with you in previous football threads. Who insulted you? (or should I just go look it up ).

CR

[TroyF]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Heh heh I don't mind it, so long as you're honest about why you mention it this much.

I didn't read that Porter thread too much since I had already hashed out that issue with you in previous football threads. Who insulted you? (or should I just go look it up ).

CR

Take a guess. Look it up. It's on page 2 or 3 somewhere. Shortly after the second reply is when this individual walked into our thread and told everyone that that the two games I'd picked were locks to lose. (as it turns out, I went 1-1 in those games)

I have no problem admitting when I'm an idiot. I just wish I didn't have to do it so much.

TroyF

[Samdari]

I would not do that trade Vince. Obviously LT is a great commodity, but that team is in disarray, and I don't see that OL improving a lot. Those guys are what they are. I also think you get killed on the other two guys. Robinson is >>>> Price. It is NOT too early to give up on Price, I did so before the season. He is a #2 WR being shoved into the #1 role. That works very rarely. Yes, Vick will open things up downfield for him a bit, but frankly, Vick has not yet proven to be an above average passing QB. Vick's value as a fantasy QB is that he essentially gives you an extra RB, in addition to average QB caliber passing numbers. Green and Zeroue are essentially a wash.

As for Boston, it gets worse, and adds to the disarray holding LT back.


http://eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=10006