Final Jeopardy Bidding Craziness

[Passacaglia]

So I watched an episode of Jeopardy over the weekend (yes, we DVR Jeopardy, deal with it), and I thought the way Final Jeopardy went down was pretty interesting. For now, I'll present the results without comment.

Before Final Jeopardy:

James -- 15,400
Emily -- 17,200
Srikanth -- 2,900

Srikanth gets Final Jeopardy wrong. He bids 701, bringing him down to 2,199.
James also gets Final Jeopardy wrong. He bids everything, bringing him down to 0 (okay, one comment -- I did not expect this bid from him, since Alex mentioned that so far, no one had got Final Jeopardy right that week, and he won the day before by being in second place and bidding 0 when everyone got the answer wrong).
Emily also gets Final Jeopardy wrong, and bids 15,000, bringing her down to 2,200.

Since discussions of Final Jeopardy bidding are usually fun around here, I thought I'd post it here, and see where you all take it.

[Passacaglia]

Oh, and if anyone is curious, the Final Jeopardy category was "Slang Terms"

[Dr. Sak]

Who are 3 people who have never been in my kitchen!

[Fighter of Foo]

The person in third should have wagered 699 or 700. That was the only mistake (besides getting the question wrong).

[RendeR]

I'll take 3 fucking dumb people for 1000 Alex!

[Butter]

Emily and James with the mis-bids. James should've bet 1801, and Emily should've bet 13,600. Srikanth probably feels like a doofus after all that, but his bet is fine, I think.

I'm sure Kickstand will be along in a moment to tell me how stupid I am.

[Big Fo]

Do you happen to remember the answer and question?

[Mustang]

701 seems really really odd and was probably a screwup. I'd think he wanted to bid 699 just in case the bids were 15400 and 15401.

[RomaGoth]

Much better than the real jeopardy...

SNL Celebrity Jeopardy 10-23-99 from MADNews

[larrymcg421]

My favorite Final Jeopardy moment:

[Jas_lov]

I think James could have bet up to $9599. He definitely screwed up by overbetting which is strange because he won the day before in the same position.

1st place should have bet $13,600 to tie or $13601 to win outright and I think 3rd place bet $701 to beat Emily if she bet $13,600 and missed.

I don't remember the exact question, but the answer was whipping boy.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

I don't remember the exact question, but the answer was whipping boy.

Yeah, the question was worded somewhat strangely, I thought.

I've always been of the mind that if the FJ question is answered incorrectly by all three contestants, Alex should browbeat the writers/research team.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

My favorite Final Jeopardy moment:

The guy in the lead should have gotten booted for not betting the extra dollar.

[Danny]

Some smart people are really dumb

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

(yes, we DVR Jeopardy, deal with it),

DVR is the ONLY way to watch Jeopardy, as they have like 7 minutes of commercials before Final Jeopardy.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The person in third should have wagered 699 or 700. That was the only mistake (besides getting the question wrong).

The bid of 701 is about the only thing I see here that does make sense, actually. I believe that his winning plan is to get the question right, and have the other two get it wrong. He's anticipating a bid of 13,600 from the champion, which if she gets it wrong, would put her at $3,600, and if he gets it right, he would be at 3,601. Maybe a bet of 700 is fine, since it would tie her at 3,600 in this case, but a bet of 699 means that he has to hope she bids 13,601.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Kodos

DVR is the ONLY way to watch Jeopardy, as they have like 7 minutes of commercials before Final Jeopardy.

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Emily and James with the mis-bids. James should've bet 1801, and Emily should've bet 13,600. Srikanth probably feels like a doofus after all that, but his bet is fine, I think.

I'm sure Kickstand will be along in a moment to tell me how stupid I am.

I can see a misbid by James -- my only guess as to his thought process is that since the category seemed easy, he figured the only way he could win was through a fluke where Emily didn't get it right.

I'm not so sure about Emily yet -- it seems like there must have been something in her bid that worked out for her, since she won by 1, don't you think?

[Kodos]

Don't they pretty much give them calculators or something that helps them figure out what to bid?

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

I'm not a Jeopardy fan anyway, as I find Alex to be insufferable. But my wife likes it. So I get sucked in sometimes.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mustang

701 seems really really odd and was probably a screwup. I'd think he wanted to bid 699 just in case the bids were 15400 and 15401.

I don't think you really anticipate bids of 15,400 and 15,401. I think you anticipate either 13,600 or 13,601 or 13,700 from Emily, and you probably don't know what to anticipate from James, but you probably just have to hope it's high or you're just screwed anyway. So I think a bid of 699 seems like a shame since Srikanth gets it right, but Emily gets it wrong, he only wins or ties on 2 of the 3 expected bids from Emily.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Kodos

DVR is the ONLY way to watch Jeopardy, as they have like 7 minutes of commercials before Final Jeopardy.

That's true. And take out the announcing of their occupations, Alex's pre-game banter, and the inane chatter in the middle, and the whole thing is a lot more watchable.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Don't they pretty much give them calculators or something that helps them figure out what to bid?

Do they? I have no idea. That's cool -- but still, this thread is more about the thought processes that lead to what they choose to do with the calculator they're given, rather than whether or not they can do the math in their head.

[Kodos]

Alex always looks like he'd rather be eating a crap sandwich than talking to the contestants.

[larrymcg421]

It's odd. Maybe Emily thought it was easy so she bet as much as possible, while still staying ahead of Srikanth if both missed and he bet his expected amount. But this strategy assumes James is going to bet everything, and I don't know how she could expect that.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Yeah, the question was worded somewhat strangely, I thought.

I've always been of the mind that if the FJ question is answered incorrectly by all three contestants, Alex should browbeat the writers/research team.

Ok, I found the question on the Jeopardy website:

Q: NOW REFERRING TO A SCAPEGOAT, THIS TERM ORIGINATED AS SOMEONE DESIGNATED AS A "PROXY FOR CORRECTION"

A: What is a whipping boy?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I'm not a Jeopardy fan anyway, as I find Alex to be insufferable. But my wife likes it. So I get sucked in sometimes.

Alex was pretty annoying in this episode, too -- he yelled "DUH!" at the contestants when they couldn't guess the only state that has an "if" in it.

But as bad as he is, the Clue Crew is worse. I was looking on the web site to see if I could find the Final Jeopardy question, and I saw a page where you could get one of them to come give a speech or some crap. Gag me.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The bid of 701 is about the only thing I see here that does make sense, actually. I believe that his winning plan is to get the question right, and have the other two get it wrong. He's anticipating a bid of 13,600 from the champion, which if she gets it wrong, would put her at $3,600, and if he gets it right, he would be at 3,601. Maybe a bet of 700 is fine, since it would tie her at 3,600 in this case, but a bet of 699 means that he has to hope she bids 13,601.

The ONLY way the 3rd place person can win is if the other two get it wrong. Betting so that you have to get the question right to win should be avoided at all costs.

$Texas is a better bet than $701

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I can see a misbid by James -- my only guess as to his thought process is that since the category seemed easy, he figured the only way he could win was through a fluke where Emily didn't get it right.

I'm not so sure about Emily yet -- it seems like there must have been something in her bid that worked out for her, since she won by 1, don't you think?

Good result doesn't mean Good decision.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Fighter of Foo

The ONLY way the 3rd place person can win is if the other two get it wrong. Betting so that you have to get the question right to win should be avoided at all costs.

$Texas is a better bet than $701

The first part of your statement is true, but if Emily got it wrong and only bet the expected amount (say, $13,601), Srikanth would lose if he bet nothing, but would have had a chance to win if he bet $700.

[Huckleberry]

Before Final Jeopardy:

James -- 15,400
Emily -- 17,200
Srikanth -- 2,900

Okay, let me go through my thinking one contestant at a time from the top.

James: He knows that Emily has to miss for him to win. If Emily gets it right she can simply bid over his maximum amount. So he should plan on bet of $13,601 from Emily. If she misses, she will be at $3,599 at the end. Srikanth, though, can get to $5,800 with a maximum bet. So if he misses he wants to stay above that value, not just above $3,599 if Emily misses. Therefore he should bid $9,599 for Final Jeopardy.

Emily: She can't take the chance that James has definitely taken all this into account. She simply needs to bet $13,601 as detailed above if she has any confidence in answering correctly. On the other hand, if she has little to no confidence in that, she should plan on how to win after she misses the question. Following the same logic above, if she misses she has to have James miss, also. If she's going to miss and James misses, then she knows she doesn't want to bet it all even if James does bet it all. She should follow the above logic and stay above the maximum amount Srikanth can reach. By betting $11,398 she will stay above that value as well as above the possible $9,599 bet of James.

Srikanth: Has to have both other players miss. As he has less than half of both the other players, he also has to count on some bad bids from them and betting his entire amount is relatively pointless. With so much to consider he should count on the $13,601 bet from Emily to stave off James. If she misses that, she will have $3,599 left. If James makes the proper $9,599 bid then Srikanth is screwed no matter what. Therefore he should plan on James making a bid of $11,800 in the event that James worries only about both he and Emily missing the question and forgets about Srikanth. If that happens and he misses, James will be left with $3,600 ahead of Emily. Therefore Srikanth should bet $701 to finish ahead of James and, in his perfect scenario, win $3,601-$3,600-$3,599.

Okay, so where are the holes in this logic? I'm sure this board can find them.

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

The first part of your statement is true, but if Emily got it wrong and only bet the expected amount (say, $13,601), Srikanth would lose if he bet nothing, but would have had a chance to win if he bet $700.

Yeah that was my bad. I thought 3rd had enough to cover 1st-2nd.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

Okay, let me go through my thinking one contestant at a time from the top.

James: He knows that Emily has to miss for him to win. If Emily gets it right she can simply bid over his maximum amount. So he should plan on bet of $13,601 from Emily. If she misses, she will be at $3,599 at the end. Srikanth, though, can get to $5,800 with a maximum bet. So if he misses he wants to stay above that value, not just above $3,599 if Emily misses. Therefore he should bid $9,599 for Final Jeopardy.

Emily: She can't take the chance that James has definitely taken all this into account. She simply needs to bet $13,601 as detailed above if she has any confidence in answering correctly. On the other hand, if she has little to no confidence in that, she should plan on how to win after she misses the question. Following the same logic above, if she misses she has to have James miss, also. If she's going to miss and James misses, then she knows she doesn't want to bet it all even if James does bet it all. She should follow the above logic and stay above the maximum amount Srikanth can reach. By betting $11,398 she will stay above that value as well as above the possible $9,599 bet of James.

Srikanth: Has to have both other players miss. As he has less than half of both the other players, he also has to count on some bad bids from them and betting his entire amount is relatively pointless. With so much to consider he should count on the $13,601 bet from Emily to stave off James. If she misses that, she will have $3,599 left. If James makes the proper $9,599 bid then Srikanth is screwed no matter what. Therefore he should plan on James making a bid of $11,800 in the event that James worries only about both he and Emily missing the question and forgets about Srikanth. If that happens and he misses, James will be left with $3,600 ahead of Emily. Therefore Srikanth should bet $701 to finish ahead of James and, in his perfect scenario, win $3,601-$3,600-$3,599.

Okay, so where are the holes in this logic? I'm sure this board can find them.

If you are seriously suggesting that Emily should bid 11,398, then you need to get out of your ivory tower. No matter how well you argue that it's irrational for James to bid more than 9,599, in the real world, Emily just has to bid at least 13,600.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If you are seriously suggesting that Emily should bid 11,398, then you need to get out of your ivory tower.

For some reason this keeps making me chuckle.

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If you are seriously suggesting that Emily should bid 11,398, then you need to get out of your ivory tower. No matter how well you argue that it's irrational for James to bid more than 9,599, in the real world, Emily just has to bid at least 13,600.

Eh, I mentioned that she should bet the 13,601. The other stuff for her was only if she was fairly certain she would miss the question.

[sooner333]

BTW, DVR Jeopardy! is right on the money. I can watch it in 15 minutes sans commercials and interviews.

[QuikSand]

I think I agree with Huckleberry above... sort of makes you wonder how many levels deep the cocntestants were thinking here, or perhaps it was just the curious assembly of numbers that led to the one dollar victory? Do we really give Emily credit for thinking through all that and coming up with the exact bid to defeat Sikanth if the question was indeed a stumper? Seems like a lot of conditions needed to be met for that to come together, and you certainly cannot count on contestants to follow perfect logic in their bidding.

Thanks for posting. One more vote here for the DVR approach, though Mrs Q actually wants to watch the interviews. *shurg*

[TredWel]

J! Archive - Wagering calculator

In short, James was way off his rocker, Emily slightly so, and Srikanth got unlucky.

[Passacaglia]

An episode from last week made me want to post here again. We've got:

Nina -- 15,000
Shima -- 5,600
Nelson -- 8,600

Shima gets Final Jeopardy right, and bids 3,001. She moves up to 8,601.
Nelson gets Final Jeopardy right, and bids 3,200. He moves up to 11,800.
Nina gets Final Jeopardy wrong, and bids 2,500. She moves down to 12,500, and still wins.

Seems like Nelson really screwed the pooch on that one.

[stevew]

Looking at it quickly, i think he should have either bet at least 4200 or up the whole amount, those both seemed to be reasonable bidding options.

I don't get the 2200 bid though, that seems dumb cause it doesn't even cover Shima potentially doubling up.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by stevew

Looking at it quickly, i think he should have either bet at least 4200 or up the whole amount, those both seemed to be reasonable bidding options.

I don't get the 2200 bid though, that seems dumb cause it doesn't even cover Shima potentially doubling up.

My bad -- Nelson actually bid 3,200. Fixed.