Some severe winters in the future?

[SFL Cat]

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Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.


The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.

The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.

According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.

When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.

But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.

In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.

The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.

The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.

But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. On was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.

Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.

This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.

Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.

Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.

What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again.

[Mustang]

No sun spots?

It is very apparent that global warming on earth has affected the sun.

[lungs]

Maybe we can combine this with global warming to find the perfect balance.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Mustang

No sun spots?

It is very apparent that global warming on earth has affected the sun.

Originally Posted by lungs

Maybe we can combine this with global warming to find the perfect balance.

+1

[JPhillips]

I'll go on record predicting some mild winters in the future.

[MikeVic]

I do not want winters colder than what I already have please. Thanks.

[Warhammer]

Actually that is not true. The data has recently been revised that a "proto" sunspot that was only seen at the Catania, Italy, observatory and was not confirmed elsewhere was named a sunspot earlier today. So last month is no longer the first month since 1913 without any sunspots.

And people say the skeptics are the ones that are using junk science... *sigh*

[Crim]

Just in case, though, I'm gonna be burning the shit out of some flourocarbons, to hedge our bets.

[Neon_Chaos]

Woot. Colder winters! Thanks

- people from the Equator.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Woot. Colder winters! Thanks

- people from the Equator.

Fuck you! Thanks

- people from the Canadian Prairie.

[Alan T]

Quick, get Al Gore on the case. He will solve this problem with his new hit documentary, "An Inconvenient New Truth" where he will explain why we must use big SUVs and raise the earth's temperature to combat off the next Ice Age!

[SFL Cat]

This could actually mean a nice rebound for property values in Florida!

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Fuck you! Thanks

- people from the Canadian Prairie.

[Schmidty]

NW Washingtonians and lower BCers might actually be forced to stop sucking at snowy and icy driving...or better yet - we could use salt!!!! *gasp*

[RendeR]

WTF is a severe winter? Round here there is Winter and there is, well, NOT winter. There are no degrees of winter, just suck it up and live through it people. Besides, Winter is the best season anyway.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by RendeR

WTF is a severe winter? Round here there is Winter and there is, well, NOT winter. There are no degrees of winter, just suck it up and live through it people. Besides, Winter is the best season anyway.

Having lived the majority of my life in west Michigan (lak effect cities), I concur.

[SFL Cat]

Living in Florida, I do miss the roaring fireplace on those cold, windy winter days.... but that's about it. I'll take a daily average of 72 in December any day of the week.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

WTF is a severe winter? Round here there is Winter and there is, well, NOT winter. There are no degrees of winter, just suck it up and live through it people. Besides, Winter is the best season anyway.

Word. Fall has been edging up there for me, but I think winter is still the best -- fall can still get miserable and have some crappy days in September. I'm excited for this winter, too, since it's the first time I'll have a garage. Rock.