Variation Notes and Assorted Stuff

[Morgado]

Just got through simming about 8 seasons with Detroit. Went with some modest house rules (No contracts longer than 4 years, no renegotiating, no franchise tag, no proposing trades). Not bad... won 3 of 5 Super Bowls so far and made the playoffs every year except for two when I had that crappy Fair Avoid Injury coach. Avoid Injury is still *the* defining rating for a coach.

Anyways, after one of those horrible 4 win seasons where I didn't make the playoffs, I picked up a RB with the 1(1) pick named Dustin Maslowski. After a respectable 1000 yard rookie season with no honors, he's stormed to four straight 1st Team All-Pro selections, four straight NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year selections. No quadfectas though because the damn player of the game algorithms keep picking my DBs who return INTs for TDs.

Anyways, one season I was experimenting with formation sets. I tried weighting 3WR heavy since Sloan retired and I had no good TEs. My rushing game went in the tank for the first four games. After that, I went back to the old mix and it seemed to work great. What i've been using to get Maslowski's 2000 yards from scrimmage seasons:

4 Formations: I, Split, Single and either Weak or Strong (doesn't seem to matter).

Extremely Low 5WR and 4 WR (about 30-35)
Moderate 2 TE, 0 TE and 3 WR (about 45-55)
Extremely High 2 WR (about 80)

Run directions not important. Pass percentages my standard WCO values: 10/40/40/5/5

Run percentages:
50-50-75-default-default
50-75-50-default-default
75-50-25-default-default
all default on 4th down

No adjustments to run percentages or pass distances at any time.

The most interesting part of all this is that Maslowski only has very good endurance (80) and average carrying (like 50). The big stuff he's got are breakaway speed and yards per carry as well as maxed receiving skills across the board. He gets like 600 yards receiving per season since my passing game is so short range.

So far i've been assuming that there are some random variables that determine play outcomes - either normal or uniform distributions probably. The skill ratings on players somehow adjust the "rolls of the dice" these random variables generate.

Breakaway Speed looks like it shifts the probability of getting ridiculously huge runs. All three of the backs on my depth chart have 70+ breakaway speed and get run after run of 20-30 yards. Maybe there's a few different distributions like N(5,5) and N(10,5) or whatever... breakaway speed is probably either shifting the distribution to a higher mean or simply acting like a random multiplier to the play outcome (hence the -12 yard runs around left end).

Yards per carry ability is described as how good the back is at avoiding being tackled for loss. Assuming all play results are either mean zero or positive mean outcome, i'm guessing the YPC rating affects the standard deviation of the distribution or somehow making the runner more consistent.

I think that's why all the totally badass RBs have exceptional breakaway and YPC ratings. They're consistently explosive.

My hypothesis on why the 2WR set seems to make a big difference with the rushing game outcomes (outstanding line put out way better numbers against way better defenses for me at least with a 2 WR set) has to do with how the defense playcalls against personnel. A 2 WR set is about as balanced as it gets and the opponent can't gamble well. Against 4 or 5 WR, you can go Nickel or Dime and play Pass Aggressive. With 2 or 3 TE, you can go 4-3 Run Normal or even gamble run. But 2 WR and a TE with split backs?

No way to really predict what a balanced personnel set will do. The best way to exploit this is with a great TE and a good blocking and pass catching FB. Not surprising my offense was successful since these are two bargain basement positions I always go after. Consistently, my FB, RB, and C all made All-Pro (at least second team) each season. The funny part is my tackles are the best run blockers and yet they rarely made second team. Hrm.

Anyways, one last thing - about 4-3 and 3-4... i've gotten both defenses to work well, winning Super Bowls in this Maslowski dynasty. The big key is to have a maxed DT to plug the middle, which is extremely easy in FOF2001 since DT is such a deep position. DEs don't seem to be as important in a 3-4, but the LBs must be first rate.

A side note is that swtiching from 4-3 to 3-4 and back to 4-3 was precipitated by the fact I couldn't hold onto my veterans and had to conform to whatever I could salvage in FA. Some years I could get LBs and some years I could get DEs (4 year cap on contract lengths so high turnover). Man, talk about cohesion and team loyalty being worthless... almost no dropoff in performance of the team even after totally gutting the defense (replaing like 7 starters). Maybe keeping the same unit together isn't all that big of a deal... take the 2000 Rams Defense for instance.

[ez]

as usual, some interesting observations...

Originally posted by Morgado:
Avoid Injury is still *the* defining rating for a coach.

yep. what if we rate NFL coaches according to the FOF categories? (sounds like a potentially interesting OT discussion...)

i'll offer that "avoid injury" is the category with the least relevance when ranking real coaches, and the one with the smallest variance. yet it dominates our decision-making process when selecting an FOF coach.

i still wonder how the coach-hiring stage(s) would've gone in FOFonline.

Breakaway Speed looks like it shifts the probability of getting ridiculously huge runs. All three of the backs on my depth chart have 70+ breakaway speed and get run after run of 20-30 yards. Maybe there's a few different distributions like N(5,5) and N(10,5) or whatever... breakaway speed is probably either shifting the distribution to a higher mean or simply acting like a random multiplier to the play outcome (hence the -12 yard runs around left end).

Yards per carry ability is described as how good the back is at avoiding being tackled for loss. Assuming all play results are either mean zero or positive mean outcome, i'm guessing the YPC rating affects the standard deviation of the distribution or somehow making the runner more consistent.

I think that's why all the totally badass RBs have exceptional breakaway and YPC ratings. They're consistently explosive.

(isn't it "short yardage" that's described as how good a back is at avoiding being tackled for loss?)

there should be a short discussion about this at the old site (i'm too lazy to go find it).

the run-length distribution in football isn't normal or symmetric. there's effectively a limit on the negative end, and a long tail on the positive side. given this, the "normal" concept of standard deviation isn't correct, and i suggested that Jim should use one of the asymmetric distributions.

he replied at some point, and said that he broke the run-length distribution into multiple curves. i'd guess this means the "short yardage" rating is used to create a (linear?) model of short(?) and negative runs for each back. the YPC rating and a hidden standard deviation is used to create a normal model for runs around 3-5 YPC, and "breakaway speed" is used to handle long runs.

the breakaway model might be another linear approximation (of the long positive tail), or (and?) it might involve an on/off switch. that is, on some runs, the code might ask whether "breakaway" > X. if so, the guy goes the distance. it'd be interesting to see a distribution of long runs in FOF, particularly the % of long runs that go for TDs. with that data, and if we knew the "breakaway" ratings of the backs involved, i bet we could make some good progress to understanding how it works.

A 2 WR set is about as balanced as it gets and the opponent can't gamble well.

yep (again). the simplest approach to offensive success in FOF is to hire a coach with VG/EXC playcalling, and then go balanced across the board (game plan and talent). with no imbalances to discover or exploit, your guys will simply beat their guys...

[This message has been edited by ez (edited 01-06-2001).]

[Morgado]

ez,

Regarding distribution shape, I agree that there should be some backend truncation - maybe a t distribution? I'm thinking Jim probably went either normal or uniform with a positive mean... like an i.i.d. normal(5,sigma) instead of a mean zero one.

On Short Yardage and Yards Per Carry, I think you're right that the tackled for loss is the short yardage blurb. But the YPC thing is what i'm really after. Maybe SY gives you a bonus to the mean of the particular bell your YPC rating entitles you to. So YPC shifts the entire distribution and then SY gives you an ex post bonus to whatever turned up. If the distribution isn't symmetric, I think there'd be a huge difference here.

On long runs, I don't think breakaway speed just gives a binary check for TD or no TD. I've seen some really interesting 80 yard runs that don't punch it in. Similarly, tons of passes get caught and run down to the 1. I've always wondered what broke the plane... I mean, a guy who catches a short pass and runs 30 yards after the catch with a 80 yards per catch probably has what it takes FOF enginewise to get it in from 40 yards out.

On offensive playcalling... yeah I ave a coach with *only* Good Avoid Injury but Excellent Motivation and Very Good Offensive Playcalling (but only Good Defensive Playcalling). It turns out even though my guys get slaughtered on injuries, I still manage to put up obscene rushing numbers. Really with a <VG Avoid Injury, so long as you've got three decent backup linemen in any combination, you're okay. I routinely plug in my third T as a C and just "hide" the injured C off-depth chart to maintain the requirements.

Speaking of depth chart requirements... I find it interesting you only need one FB active and can only put RB at FB but not the other way around.

[Morgado]

WARNING: Long Post

Here's an update on what my boy Dustin Maslowski has been doing to opposing defenses.

House Rules in place:
1. No Renegotiation. Period.
2. Maximum deals 4 years for any player with less than 4 seasons experience.
3. No adjusting game plan ever after first preseason game played.
4. Maximum ticket price increase $1 for any seat and 5% for any box.
5. No Franchise Tag use.
6. No initiating trades. Period.
7. No modifying CPU trades.
8. Veterans may be signed after training camp to multiyear deals iff they started at least one game for you the previous season.


RB Dustin Maslowski
Drafted 1(1) 2004 by Detroit Lions
Born 1983 - 5'11", 200 Lbs.
LSU

2011 Ratings:
84 Breakaway Speed
44 Short Yardage
58 Third Down Running
82 Yards Per Carry
92 Catching 
88 Catch Frequency
87 Third Down Catching
49 Carrying 
73 Endurance

Career Averages:
1,482.5 Yards Rushing
4.5 Yards Per Carry
12.6 TDs Rushing
559.4 Yards Receiving
3.5 TDs Receiving
5.5 Fumbles Per Season

Career Awards (Year is denoted xx = 20xx):
Offensive Rookie of the Year 04
1st Team RB: 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10
2nd Team RB: 11
Off Player of the Year: 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10
Super Bowl MVP: 10, 11
NFL MVP: 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11

Now a little bit about the system he is playing in. This program has been in use for every season that Maslowski has played for the Lions. As above in the house rules, the plan is not adjusted at all during the season or during the playoffs. The team has been playing with a fourth round pick at QB who has developed into a very good short-medium range passer but has only average accuracy and throwing power. The receiver corps is usually two or three very good WRs and one or two very good TE. The FB is pretty much across the board all-universe and the offensive line usually has two or three extremely good players, two average starters, and usually average backups. The playing time for the RB position is always 5 or 6.

Coach Harvey Tyler (Age 46 in 2011):
EX Motivation, Discipline, Offense
VG LB, Receivers
GD QB, Secondary, K, Avoid injury
FA RB, OL, DL, Talent, Defense

104-42-0 Lifetime, 7 Playoff Appearances and 4-1 in Super Bowls

Tyler's West Coast Offense:

Run Percentages (xx = Scout Default):
1st 50 50 75 xx xx
2nd 50 75 50 xx xx
3rd 75 25 xx xx xx
4th xx xx xx xx xx

Pass Distances: 10-40-40-5-5 
Run Directions: Typically near 15 at each end, 25-30 C, and near 10 everywhere else.

Formations: I, Pro, Single Back, and Strong or Weak (Pick one)
Percentages for Run: I 35, Pro 20, Strong 25, Single 20
Percentages for Pass: I 15, Pro 30, Strong 25, Single 30

Personnel Settings:
0 WR = 0 (Used to be 20)
1 WR = 50
2 WR = 85
3 WR = 65
4 WR = 30
5 WR = 0 (Used to be 20)

Commentary:

Okay, what makes the system work? If you look at the run percentage grid, you will see that this is a run first offense that tries to pound it every down. On first and ten, we run the ball and gain maybe 3 yards. On second and medium, we run the ball and pick up maybe another 4 yards. On third and short, we run the ball again and pick up the first down. In each of these cases, the run percentage is 75%! The only time the offense throws, it's acting like a changeup. I believe the fact the second and medium run percentage is 75% is what allows me to not have to change my game plan and still be successful. The yardage range for medium is 3-8, meaning the high run percentage kicks in all over the situation possibility grid. On second and 3, is that really second and short or second and medium? It's the difference between 50% and 75% running. I think this makes it a bit harder for the CPU to tell exactly what my team is doing - especially when the changeups are successful due to the ultra high percentage passing scheme. As long as my QB doesn't make any mistakes, we get sustained drives (hit the occasional 6-12 yard pass and we're golden).

This offense goes with an extremely balanced personnel and formation package to keep the defense guessing. Since we rarely use obvious throwing sets, it isn't clear when we're going to throw - no shotgun or 5 WR sets. The idea is to keep the FB and TE on the field at all times because they are star caliber players. Almost always when simming, the defense is in a base 34 or 43 package and playing either Run/Pass Normal or Run Aggressive. When they go Run Aggressive, we burn them throwing. On Normal disposition, our line plus awesome FB and TE will take on their front seven any day and win. Maslowski has an obscene number of 200 all purpose yard games and a few 300 all purpose yards games.

What defenses give this offense problems? In a reaffirmation of my theories on defense, the units which feature outstanding DTs are the ones that kill me. Now I know why no other team chews me up on the ground - I draft unreal DTs and base my defense around it. Any time I face a defense which has one or two run stoppers in the middle, Maslowski has a hard time picking up yards - even if the LBs, DEs, and S players are pitiful or unremarkable. Against teams with average DT play and super LBs, we still get our yardage on the ground. I think LBs are able to stop you from getting those 80 yard scampers, but figure less for stopping you for losses. I'm thinking you get the 5 yard run off the KRB and then the LB and S nail your RB. Great S play seems to help on preventing long runs too. I stress again the importance of the S in pass coverage though. If you have a S with an awesome Interception rating, expect him to be near the top in INTs. That's where the S is critical. Even featuring otherwise average S players and a Fair Defensive coach, my defense manages tons of picks because the SS and FS both have INT ratings of like 70+. Oh yeah, the other thing that really really REALLY helps run defese is a great tackler at MLB. Any LB with Run Defense of 70+ will boost your run defense tremendously.

Which brings me to another idea - it seems like a unit with a bunch of average players doesn't really accomplish much. But if you get role players who are fabulous in some area like a run stopper LB, you get great results. Maybe the way to go is to have 3 or 4 role players with super spectacular ratings in one area and fill in the rest of the unit with average players to hold the fort. That's kind of how i've been playing my Nickel Defense - 2 awesome Intercepting Safeties, one shutdown Corner, and the rest average scrubs with an attempt to get a great interceptor at Nickel Back (3rd CB).

Field Position:

Something that has not received a lot of attention but is looking crucial is field position and the kicking game. I was watching some playoff games and was astounded at my average starting field position. Unless the opposing punter got off a great kick, I was getting awesome field position - especially on kickoffs. Most of the time I see my crew starting at the 35 or so. Any NFL coach would drool at the prospect of always starting at the 35 and being able to pin the opponent inside the 10 consistently. Having a great punter looks like it's key to success because my man Thao has been pinning the opponent inside the 10 repeatedly. In the last Super Bowl (2011), we squeaked by 10-3. The key? Thao had punts of 58 and 62 yards to get us out of trouble and pinned the Patroits on their own 1 yard line late in the 4th quarter. Maslowski had an average day and the starting QB was Doubtful (but played the whole way) so the offense was sputtering throughout. The kicking game really saved us and also frustrated because my kikcer isn't so hot and missed a field goal. I can't tell you enough about how bad it is to miss a field goal under 40 yards. It's giving up free points you should have had... and with FOF's playcalling engine, the deficit size can radically change the way your coach calls plays. 3 points can mean a lot... the difference between a desperate throw every down offense and a conventional balanced attack.


[This message has been edited by Morgado (edited 01-08-2001).]

[QuikSand]

no substantive comment from me here... but this is just good reading.

[Subby]

Outstanding research.

I constantly struggle to perfect the "gameday" aspect of FOF - all to often I have great RBs who take a 22-40 collar.

I am anxious to get home and try this...

[NovaBlazer]

Good stuff! Thank you for taking the time and posting this up.

[Upstate_New_York]

My god, it's so simple it's brilliant. Here I am trying to get a killer running game going for ages, trying to pound the bloody ball down their throats for every single instance... when I was totally avoiding balance. Doh! Just thinking back to those great Giants teams in 86 and 90... Bavaro was so key at TE. And Sims's offense was always balanced... nothing fancy... just balanced. This set up is brilliant! I too can't wait to go home and try this one out.

------------------
Don't blame me. I voted for Willie Nelson.

[Subby]

Hmmmm...4 games into my new season under Offensive Coordinator Moe Morgado and the 2043 Washington Redskins rack up 601 yards of O against Hartford.

I feel like Nebraska

***ADDED AT SEASON'S END***

Welp, that team ended up going 15-1. We lost in the Conference Finals, most likely because I made some questionable defensive settings before the game...

My QB, RB, C all made First-Team from the Offense. QB (304-496, 3,993, 27-13, 93.9) also named Offensive player of the year. RB (310-1,286-15 rushing, 43-413-3 receiving). So I am happiest that this offensive explosion was achieved with balance. Now I just need a defensive dissertation on par with this one...


[This message has been edited by Subby (edited 01-08-2001).]

[Morgado]

Originally posted by Subby:
Hmmmm...4 games into my new season under Offensive Coordinator Moe Morgado and the 2043 Washington Redskins rack up 601 yards of O against Hartford.

I feel like Nebraska

Oh no, i've created a monster. Actually, it's Arnold Morgado... haha. Long story on where that comes from...

Thanks for the kind words guys. It's nice to know i'm not just rambling to myself. The Morgado Sports Network appreciates your patronage. Hehehe....

I was thinking about what i've been working on all this time and it struck me so hard I almost fell out of my chair. I mean, we've all been working with some kind of WCO wannabe settings and getting better and better results as we can simulate the tactics of a Bill Walsh/Lavell Edwards type offense.

But waitaminute. Isn't that EXACTLY what all the best offensive teams in the NFL were doing in the 90s? All we used to hear about in the 90s was WCO this and WCO that and which Walsh disciple was being hired for a head coaching job. How many old school Bear bryant or Hayes style pound the ball coaches are left? Knox is not coaching, Gibbs has been gone for a while, and even Parcells is out. Schottenheimer the money grubber is back in the mix but only after a stint at ESPN. There really haven't been any successful smashball offenses in the past 10 years.

But wait, what's all of FOF's probability tables based on? Stats Inc.'s data on like the last few season - precisely when everybody is doing the WCO bandwagon thing. So of course the engine rewards us for playing a West Coast Offense! It's what all the tables are based on! Doh! *wap*

As a side note, I simmed out the 2012 and 2013 seasons and Maslowski didn't make All-Pro for the first time in 2012, beat out by some hotshot rookies in yardage and such. We lost the Conference Final that year to Carolina who went on to take the Lobardi Trophy. Maslowski had a meager 14 TDs and 1350 yards rushing with 4 TDs receiving and 400 yards receiving. Bleah.

In 2013, Ironman Maslowski misses the first games of his career (yep started every game for 9 seasons) with a hyperextended elbow (2-3 month variety). His backup steps in and racks up a nice 1300 yard season on 12 starts. Maybe it is the system after all... heh. We go on to win the Super Bowl with Maslowski's replacement eating up the opposition.

One thing that probably helped a bunch - my first tow picks were used on 75+ Interception rating Safeties. The defense in 2013 was outstanding and picks were way up.

[Morgado]

Originally posted by Upstate_New_York:
Just thinking back to those great Giants teams in 86 and 90... Bavaro was so key at TE.

Actually if you think back to a lot of the great running teams in the 80s and 90s, they usually featured a great TE. Jones (Let's not forget Rathman and Craig), Novacek, (dare I say it?) Chmura (Dorsey had some good seasons), Bavaro, Sharpe, etc...

I really believe a TE is important not only because of the value you get (extremely loyal and cheep demands) but because the guy figures into both run blocking as well as the short passing game - both critical elements of what i'm trying to accomplish... Same goes for the FB position.

[Morgado]

Originally posted by Subby:
I feel like Nebraska

***ADDED AT SEASON'S END***

Now I just need a defensive dissertation on par with this one...

Actually 15-1 and losing the championship sounds more like injuries and unlucky roll of the dice on big plays rather than bad defensive settings. I hate to disappoint, but my defensive ideas are not quite as developed as my offensive ideas.

Which is strange, because I like looking at defense more than offense. *shurg*

Let me give you what, coincidentally, is the Nebraska Men In Black defense i'm running. Yes, the Nebraska coaches at the AFCA meeting actually called it that - named after the Blackshirts the Nebraska defenders are famous for.

-----
Philosophy

Nebraska likes to play a base nickel package with heavy blitz schemes. I don't know exactly how to replicate their zone blitzes because i'm not sure how FOF handles the DE that's supposed to peel off into the flat zone that's vacated by the blitzing dog (plus FOF doesn't allow you to play base Nickel). Anyway, the key to Nebraska's defense is the following:

1. Stop the run. If we can stop the run, we force the offense to become one-dimensional.
2. Win on third down. This usually works in conjunction with 1 because it involves setting up third and long.
3. Pressure the quarterback. If the QB is on his back, he can't throw a good ball.
4. Stop the run.

The way I look at playing defense is to first stop the run (I cannot stress this enough). On an average day, the opposing offense will be held to under 100 yards on less than 25 attempts as a team - forget about their main tailback. On occasion, I have actually held to negative yards rushing on over 20 carries.

-----
Personnel

It all starts in the center of the field. The problem with the middle of the field is that it allows the most options to the offense. They can go right, they can go left, they can go up the gut. On either side of the field, options are limited and the ballcarrier has to work against the sidelines as well as your players. This is how I look at real football. How does this translate to FOF? If you think about the players on the field, the guys in the middle are likely in on every play. Why? Because they always have an angle to the play side of the field. If you are on the strong or weakside of the formation, you will inevitably be either playside of backside. Guys on the playside make the tackles - guys on the backside have containment and don't make the tackles. Guys in the center are always playside since they can take a few steps and voila they are playside.

Draw a line down the center of the defense. Who do you come across? First, the DTs. These are your first line of defense against the run. It is the single most important position on the field in stopping the run. Yes, more important than the Middle Linebacker. Why? because if the runner can't get past your DT, he surely isn't going to encounter your MLB. Also, even if your DT doesn't make the play, he is the one taking up bodies and clogging the running lanes. Just ask Laroi Glover how important adding Norman Hand to the Saints Defensive Line was on his level of play. Tony Siragusa on the Ravens makes McCrary and Burnett all the more dangerous.

The second player you encounter is our just-dissed MLB. He is the second line of defense. When your Defensive Line doesn't make the hit for a loss or short gain, it is up to the MLB to stop the runner from penetrating the secondary. This is your second most important position in stopping the run. The third most important run stopper is the strongside linebacker. I have a feeling that the OLS coefficients make the playside players more important when determining play success. So if most runs go to the strongside, Sam is more likely than Will to be involved in stopping the run.

The last line of defense you run into are the Safeties. Usually safety alignment is one playing centerfield (Weak/Free/Whatever) and one rolled to the strong side of the formation (Strong/Rover/Hero/Whatever). The Strong side of the formation is the common run side and usually emphasis is placed on the Strong Safety's run support skills. Your Free Safety is just that - a free rover who plays centerfield and picks off passes. Safety play is more critical on pass defense due to this over the top double coverage aspect of their position.

What about Defensive Ends? Forget it. These guys are strictly pass rushers. Even the best run defending DE's don't seem to make as much of a difference as a DT on run stopping. They are the keys to good QB pressure, but we'll get to that in a minute. Usually what you want to do is draft to play good run defense. Make DT and a MLB enforcer your top priorities on defensive drafting. Remember the 85 Bears? Dan Hampton and Mike Singletary look pretty good if you want to stop the run. Since the majority of runs go up the middle, you are taking the offense by the horns and kicking them up and down the sidewalk.

Okay, so why is stopping the run such a big deal and why do I keep harping about it? Because stopping the run makes the offense go one dimensional. If the offense keeps losing yards or getting zilch-o on runs, they will stop running and start throwing every down. Put into second and long and third and long situations, the FOF engine will usually call passes and I mean usually in the loosest sense of the word. Once I get up 14-0 in the second quarter and am greeting the RB in his own backfield every rush attempt, the CPU switches to an ultra-desperate 4 WR Shotgun every down type offense that just screams "Intercept me... please!" Setting the CPU up to be predictable is the key to success on third down. Especially if you drafted one or two great interceptors to play centerfield, you will get tons of picks on Nickel - Any Coverage - Any Blitz - Pass Aggressive. That S will indeed be playing centerfield and start plucking those desperation shots out of the air. Stop the run to force the pass. On third and 9, what would you call?

The last piece of the puzzle is to pressure the quarterback. I don't usually stress this as much as the actual Nebraska coaches do. I like to play more of a passive umbrella against a pass offense and allow the opponent to make mistakes. However, blitzing helps in many phases, not just getting that obscene sack total. In FOF, it seems run blitzing does indeed work. If you blitz and the CPU runs, you are essentially stacking the box and putting your guys in a position to catch the runner in the backfield. Granted, it may justbe coincidence, but i've noticed blitzing against the run isn't as tragic as we hear from tv commentators (run at a pass rusher to take him out of the play blah blah). Usually a combination of good centerfield play with a solid front four will get you the desired results. Some sacks will be coverage sacks, some will be pure sacks - sometimes you force a bad throw that gets picked off. Whatever the deal is, the key to understanding pass rush is that there is an interplay between coverage and pass rush. one cannot exist without the other. If you have ultra-crappy DBs but a fabulous DE, the QB will just check to the hot receiver and throw his one step safety valve route to the FB. This is why when you think sack, you need to think rush *and* cover (not duck and cover).

So, to sum up, our priorities on draft day and during Free Agency:

Stopping the Run:
1. DT
2. MLB
3. SS

Stopping the Pass:
1. CB
2. FS
3. WLB

Generating Turnovers:
1. FS
2. DE
3. DT (I'm not kidding, these guys get sacks and force fumbles too)

-----
Setting the Defense

The system relies mostly on solid play vs the run and letting the offense make mistakes. I am a total believer in rotating fresh pass rushers and defenders to wear down the offense. Usually you think of a running offense wearing down the defense, but we go on the attack and turn the tables. The big way to keep your guys fresh is to first draft and sign guys who have above average endurance ratings. I almost never sign anyone with anything under 50. Guys with like 70+ get a premium with me - even if the next guy might have more say run defense potential. Endurance means a lot to me for two reasons.

First, if the LT is tired and your RDE is fresh, who's going to be more explosive off the ball? I have a feeling that there's a logarithmic decay in skills with energy levels. So when you are fresh you are at max. When you are at good, your numbers drop a little. When you are at Fair energy, your numbers drop off quite a bit. When you are Poor, you're no better than that 7 year minimum salary scrub. Second, I have a nagging suspicion that tired players are more likely to be injured (tho no proof to back this up).

Usually even when I have ultra stud DT or DE players, I set the entire defensive line starter playing times to 4. This keeps them rotating in and out with the halfway decent backups. That way by the middle of the second quarter I am not stuck with halfway decent starters *and* backups due to fatigue. Another nice bonus is that it lets backups play some downs and keeps their attitude in line. With linebackers, I usually set it to 6 since my LBs almost always have real high endurances and I rarely have the chance to grab more than three startworthy LBs. If one gets hurt.. well, a halfway decent backup gets to start a game or two (hopefully not more than that). LBs seem to be harder to obtain in FOF2000.

CB and S players I usually set at starter playing time to 4 or 5 for similar reasons. However, the interesting twist is that you should not always listen to the scout's recommended setup. Especially with your first CB off the bench (your Nickelback), you want to get your backup with the highest interception rating. Your first two corners will be taking care of their go-to guys, so the Nickelback is really your X-Factor to get the pick - much like the safeties playing in space. Typically, I only have 4 CBs who are actually meant to play CB - the 5th one on my roster is filled by a 100/100 return specialist (or as near as can get to 100/100).

Whatever run expectations your scout sets after training camp is fine, and you can leave the blitz by position settings. The coverages can be left alone too. In keeping with our theme of balance from the offensive game plan, you want to be unpredictable to the CPU coach. The big changes ocur on what personnel you use. As usual, pick a 4-3 or 3-4 standard front and max it out in training camp. Set the percentage to 100 on whichever you picked. Now the fun part. if you can spare the points, max out Nickel in training camp if you can - or try to at least put it to 3/4 of the way. Set the likelihood of using Nickel to 70. Everything else you can leave alone except maybe kick your Goal line to 55 if you haven't zeroed it out in training camp.

I usually set blitz percentage to 65, but you can go 70 or 75 if you're more aggresive. I never touch the gamble tendencies. Why? Because I want to let my coach do that in-game after we force the opponent to go one dimensional. Until you can stop the run and force them into a throw every down mentality, you don't want to be gambling. Forcing punts is just as good if you have a good punter (which you should since it's so darn cheap). If you have a good defense and a good punter, you should certainly be willing to play the field position game. In the old days, the punter was a yard gaining weapon. punt 60 yards, hold for three and out, and then gain yards on a shorter punt plus your return. You gained maybe 10-20 yards of field position.

-----
The Bottom Line

This seems to work for me both out of a 3-4 and a 4-3 (I have won Super Bowls with both in the Maslowski test career). The key settings are Nickel 70, Blitz 65 and Blitz Multiple maybe 55 if you feel saucy. To me the extra risk of leaving holes in your underneath zones is just not worth it. Be satisfied with three and outs. Pretty soon the CPU will get frustrated (like real coaches) and let you sit in your expertly trained Nickel to pick off passes.

The most important players: DT then FS then MLB - these are first and second round picks. After that you have a toss up of Shutdown Corner, Second LB, and SS - these can be second or third round picks. A Second Corner, Pass Rushing DE, and Nickelback are probably around 4-5 round or free agency veterans.

[Ctown-Fan]

You are brilliant. That is fantastic analysis (and reading you thorough explaination of your thought process is great), and although it may be premature in terms of my use with the offensive game plan. I posted the rout I just won over in the general section. Stl. 68-0 over the 10-4 Cleveland Browns.

[Morgado]

Here's what I like to see out of my team:

Green Bay Packers Drive Chart  
  
                  Quar   Began  Poss   From          Plays  Yards  Result  
                  1      15:00  0:26   OWN 36        1      0      Interception  
                  1      12:42  1:58   OWN 36        3      6      Interception  
                  1      7:58   1:48   OWN 23        3      9      Punt  
                  1      4:31   0:56   OWN 7         3      2      Interception  
                  1      1:42   2:22   OWN 26        5      36     Punt  
                  2      12:30  1:50   OWN 44        3      -4     Punt  
                  2      7:43   2:33   OWN 43        3      4      Punt  
                  2      3:05   1:21   OWN 20        3      8      Punt  
                  3      13:19  1:53   OWN 29        3      4      Punt  
                  3      9:44   1:02   OWN 43        3      -1     Punt  
                  3      5:11   3:06   OWN 30        6      40     Punt  
                  4      9:28   1:14   OWN 20        3      7      Interception  
                  4      8:14   2:28   OWN 19        3      12     Punt  
                  4      3:39   1:50   OWN 18        3      6      Punt  
                  4      1:08   0:51   OWN 12        3      6      Punt  
  
Detroit Lions Drive Chart  
  
                  Quar   Began  Poss   From          Plays  Yards  Result  
                  1      14:34  1:52   OPP 32        3      12     Field Goal  
                  1      10:44  2:46   OPP 27        5      21     Field Goal  
                  1      6:10   1:39   OWN 47        3      1      Punt  
                  1      3:35   1:53   OPP 7         3      1      Field Goal  
                  2      14:20  1:50   OWN 20        3      4      Punt  
                  2      10:40  2:57   OWN 35        8      65     Touchdown  
                  2      5:10   2:05   OWN 20        4      34     Punt  
                  2      1:44   1:44   OWN 40        5      24     Half  
                  3      15:00  1:41   OWN 26        3      0      Punt  
                  3      11:26  1:42   OWN 19        3      0      Punt  
                  3      8:42   3:31   OWN 31        7      59     Field Goal  
                  3      2:05   7:37   OWN 7         13     93     Touchdown  
                  4      5:46   2:07   OWN 37        4      3      Punt  
                  4      1:49   0:41   OWN 49        3      -3     Punt  
                  4      0:17   0:17   OWN 44        1      -1     Game  

Just look at that field position at the end of the game. I don't mind trading punts if i'm gonna keep pinning him back there. Having a running game is outstanding when your defense is able to take charge of the game early. At that point when you're up by about 10 or 13, you can play keep away and run the clock. That 93 yard TD drive in the third quarter is a beautiful thing.


[This message has been edited by Morgado (edited 01-08-2001).]

[ez]

Originally posted by Morgado:
Usually even when I have ultra stud DT or DE players, I set the entire defensive line starter playing times to 4. This keeps them rotating in and out with the halfway decent backups.

for those familiar with the basketball game at www.simulatedsports.com, i've used a similar strategy there with good results...

[This message has been edited by ez (edited 01-10-2001).]

[Subby]

Thanks for the defensive analysis. Complex, but easy to read - as always.

I am going to print this out and take it home with me

[Ksyrup]

Honestly, this is really impressive analysis. I'm going to work this into my gameplan and see what happens. I nominate Morgado's posts in this thread to some sort of FOF HOF post list. This is mandatory reading for anyone who really tries to run an offense or defense, as opposed to building a roster and letting it sim.

[Ksyrup]

BTW, in instances where you scout your next opponent and see one or two excellent DTs, what is your suggestion for altering the gameplan (if any)? Would you suggest more emphasis on pass, or more running toward the ends? I was thinking more short passes to RB, FB, and TE to substitute for running it up the middle and getting stuffed.

[Morgado]

Ksyrup,

Although I never alter my gameplans, the first thing i'd do is consider the tradeoff of diverting the runs. The reason we run up the middle is because we need to establish a credible threat to the center of the defense.

Ever watched a good triple option offense at work? The three options are as follows: QB takes snap and can hand off to the RB on a dive (1), and then can pull the ball out of the bread basket and run around end (2) or pitch to the slotback who is trailing behind him (3). At least half of the option plays should be the dive play up the middle because this will force the linebackers and safeties to respect the center of the field and stay at home. If you don't establish the inside run, the defense starts to cheat outwards to string out the Qb and pitch runs.

I'm not sure how complex the adaptive engine of FOF is. I mean, i'm not sure how the CPU coaches can affect their defense's performance based on run direction. Maybe the CPU switches personnel around to put its best run defender on the side you're running most to etc. I don't know. However, I usually don't take any chances. Even if the inside run gets stuffed early, I believe it is better to keep plugging at it so the defense has to honor it.

Inside running should make the CPU coach also call more 43/34 base fronts to stop the run and should set him up for the pass. Now, even if you get stopped for low gains on the inside running, you will probably reap benefits in the passing game because the CPU will be blitzing and dropping to nickel/dime less in fear of a dive play.

If I were calling plays, i'd probably try to do what Detroit did in the Barry Sanders days. If you can't get the runner some lanes, you can flip the ball to him in the flat. Your short passing game to the RB, FB and TE is exactly this and sounds like the way to go. Midway through the game, you'll probably have the CPU coach suckered into playing man and heavy underneath zones - which clears the way for the bomb.

[Kevin]

Based on this and other threads, I've finally established a bruising running game.
By limiting the number of personnel sets and formations to those that can be used for both running and passing, my star RB has finally broken through as expected. He's got 1643 yards rushing through 12 games with a playing time setting at either 4 or 5. The FB and backup RB are picking up some decent 40-50 yards games as well. The joy of this offense is ball control as we can grind out a couple of first downs on the ground almost every possession and eat up the clock with the lead. Even if it stalls, my punter is good at pinning the other team deep.

Although my QB and WRs aren't used extensively, they have sufficient talent to mount a comeback if need be.

Thanks for the tips!



------------------
It seems more like today than it did all day yesterday.

[OldGiants]

>for those familiar with the basketball game at www.simulatedsports.com, i've used a similar strategy there with good results...
<

Dang, I thought I was the only one who knew that.

Do you find it still works with p6k's new subbing logic? He put that in the week I made the Conf18 finals, and I think it may have cost me the championship by playing my starters too much in a double-OT one point loss.

[OldGiants]

Morgado, thanks for putting into words what I've always believed to be true. I'm a big fan of DT's and Ss with high INTs.

I've taken an expansion team in 2009 and built them through the draft and FA's. right now cohesion is holding me back.

My team is based defensively on much of what you've written, and that is falling into place.

Offensively, I've tried something unusual, I think. I've focused the first few drafts on defense and OL, with all skill positions coming from low draft choices (QBs are #5 and #6) and mostly FAs. I've signed all the FAs with high 3rd down catching and running skills (as well as the Qbs) hoping for miracles on 3rd down. So far, that hasn't materialized as successfully as the defense has come around.

But I'm coming up to the 5th season, when cohesion begins to kick in for an expansion team, so that may change. I'll report back on that.

[Morgado]

Originally posted by OldGiants:
Offensively, I've tried something unusual, I think. I've focused the first few drafts on defense and OL, with all skill positions coming from low draft choices (QBs are #5 and #6) and mostly FAs. I've signed all the FAs with high 3rd down catching and running skills (as well as the Qbs) hoping for miracles on 3rd down. So far, that hasn't materialized as successfully as the defense has come around.

But I'm coming up to the 5th season, when cohesion begins to kick in for an expansion team, so that may change. I'll report back on that.

Glad the stuff helps. I find this last portion to be quite fascinating. Please let us know how this team full of clutch players works out. I always wondered how big of a deal the "go-to" guy factor was in FOF.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Must keep telling myself ...

Forget the sack numbers ...
Forget the sack numbers ...
Forget the sack numbers ...

I've fallen prey to infatuation with DE's, even though my most successful teams have been with dominant DT's & average ends. I'm learning though, I'm learning.

Just a word of thanks to Morgado & all those who contribute to these threads. Especially helpful is the depth of detail even on things that would seem obvious to most -- it's amazing what little details can be overlooked by even fairly adept players (like making sure your S are playing in the position best suited for their skills, regardless of what the scout thinks).

Jon

[QuikSand]

Morgado, you make the (current) Maryland contingent of this forum proud. (not to mention the Hawaiian)

[Morgado]

Originally posted by QuikSand:
Morgado, you make the (current) Maryland contingent of this forum proud. (not to mention the Hawaiian)

Heh, I think I *am* the Hawaii contingent.

[Ben E Lou]

My hypothesis on why the 2WR set seems to make a big difference with the rushing game outcomes (outstanding line put out way better numbers against way better defenses for me at least with a 2 WR set) has to do with how the defense playcalls against personnel. A 2 WR set is about as balanced as it gets and the opponent can't gamble well. Against 4 or 5 WR, you can go Nickel or Dime and play Pass Aggressive. With 2 or 3 TE, you can go 4-3 Run Normal or even gamble run. But 2 WR and a TE with split backs?

This is great stuff overall, but I have a question about this paragraph. My understanding (someone please correct me if I'm wrong) is that the "2WR" setting only affects formations in which three wide receivers would normally be used: Single Back and Shotgun. It sets these formations to use 2 tight ends and 2 wide receivers. If this is true, ultimately it won't have a HUGE affect on your offense considering that you only run the Single Back a small percentage of the time and never use the shotgun. Feedback?

Ben

[Morgado]

Originally posted by SkyDog:
...is that the "2WR" setting only affects formations in which three wide receivers would normally be used: Single Back and Shotgun.

I have seen this posted before and my conclusion was: I ain't taking no chances. The 75 Offense pretty much seems to run 2 WR sets out of every formation way more often than others - even when I set the 2TE/1WR to 99. Since I really don't know exactly what's going on (but I do know I want 2 WR on the field and whatever blocking back complement goes with it since it's hefty), I jack up 2WR to 75 to be safe.


------------------
"Solomon yo! Watashi ga kaette kita!" (Solomon! I have returned!) - Major Anavel Gato, Compeito Island 11-10-0083

[The Mike]

Originally posted by Morgado:
Run percentages:
50-50-75-default-default
50-75-50-default-default
75-50-25-default-default
all default on 4th down

Morgado,

Am I looking in the wrong place, or did you type an extra "default"? My run percentages only have 4 entries across... I'm going to feel like a bigger moron than I probably look like right now if I've been setting these %s in the wrong place (on the game plan "offense" tab).

[Morgado]

Originally posted by The Mike:
[B...did you type an extra "default"[/b]

Indeed I did. Thanks for catching that one.

[The Mike]

No problemo. Consider it my contribution to the cause.

Actually I just respect your ideas a great deal, and was attempting to implement something similar to this offense. That's when I noticed it - and hoped I wasn't adjusting my settings in the wrong place.

If only my WLC team had the right personnel for this offense - I'm stuck with a more open attack for now, and keep losing in the damned playoffs.

[OldGiants]

>Glad the stuff helps. I find this last portion to be quite fascinating. Please let us know how this team full of clutch players works out. I always wondered how big of a deal the "go-to" guy factor was in FOF.<

Basically the offense was a flop, but the team succeeded, sort of.

With all my top picks going into defense and O-line, I rapidly developed the top defensive unit in the league, allowing around 270-280 total yards per game. But the offense truly crapped out, getting less than that. So 9-7 and one division title with that team was the best I could put up. (And then only because one the "clutch" players ran back a kickoff 109 yards with less than 2 minutes to go in game 16 versus the then divisional leader) The salary strangled me, even with only 22 players on more than minimum salaries!!

I'm giving it another shot with more attention to your defense and offensive tweaks, above.

One habit from "normal" play shot me in the foot -- trading up draft picks by throwing in reserves. I forgot my rule about the fifth round, so I wound up with no choices after round 3 one year, and no players to pick since I couldn't go for skill players. so I won't be trading up my draft choices this time.

[NovaBlazer]

Honolulu Eruption Individual Statistics

Rushing		Att	Yards	Avg	Long	TD
32 James		24	323	13.4	69	3
46 Meyer		4	25	6.2	11	1
40 Terrell		4	35	8.7	18	0
18 Manning		2	6	3.0	4	0
35 Peterman		2	7	3.5	6	0

Passing		Att	Comp	Yards	Yd/Att	Long	TD	Int
18 Manning		25	15	236	9.4	38	1	0

Direction		Rush	Yards	Avg
LE		3	84	28.0
LT		4	41	10.2
LG		4	60	15.0
C		12	92	7.6
RG		3	7	2.3
RT		4	10	2.5
RE		6	102	17.0
None		0	0	0.0

Formation		Rush	Yards	Avg
I Formation		8	58	7.2
Pro		8	135	16.8
Strong I		20	203	10.1

---
Another game
---

Rushing		Att	Yards	Avg	Long	TD
32 James		24	182	7.5	80	1
28 Beadnell		13	172	13.2	65	2
18 Manning		5	2	0.4	3	0
46 Meyer		3	12	4.0	7	0


Direction		Rush	Yards	Avg
LE		6	136	22.6
LT		4	14	3.5
LG		5	12	2.4
C		15	83	5.5
RG		5	93	18.6
RT		4	21	5.2
RE		4	13	3.2
None		2	-4	-2.0

Formation		Rush	Yards	Avg
I Formation		14	102	7.2
Pro		15	146	9.7
Strong I		14	124	8.8
Other		2	-4	-2.0

I did not see these results my first few years in Hawaii. James did well... 1600+ every year (earing 3 straight 3 awards years) but the year I added 3 or 4 more percentage points into End Running James got 2222 yards and 4 awards! Yikes!

Everything else I did very close to Morgado's suggestions.

Pass percentages my standard WCO values: 10/40/40/5/5

Run percentages:
50-50-75-default-default
50-75-50-default-default
75-50-25-default-default
all default on 4th down

Oh, why Hawaii... well, I figured it would be tough. And they still have single digit loyalty not to mention they are pretty dirt poor. =) It was either Hawaii Eruption or the Alaska Alvalanche.

For what it is worth,
NovaBlazer

[This message has been edited by NovaBlazer (edited 02-12-2001).]

[Alf]

bump

Very tasteful bump, Alf. This is great stuff.

[SloppyJoMo]

Originally Posted by Morgado

Run directions not important. Pass percentages my standard WCO values: 10/40/40/5/5

Run percentages:
50-50-75-default-default
50-75-50-default-default
75-50-25-default-default
all default on 4th down

I'm guessing that these distributions are for older versions, but I'm brand new to FOF and have version 6.1. Any ideas how these correlate to the adjustment screens in that version? Having trouble figuring it out on my own.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by Subby

I constantly struggle to perfect the "gameday" aspect of FOF - all to often I have great RBs who take a 22-40 collar.

Seven YEARS later...little improvement.