(poker) Why Donkey Plays aren't always made by donkey players..

[SirFozzie]

Player A in the Small Blind limps

Player B in the Big Blind Makes a Small Raise

Player A Goes All In

Player B calls and shows AJo
Player A shows... 73o????

Player A somehow flops a seven and turns a 3 to win the pot with two pair, and knocks out Player B.

We've all seen it here, folks cursing and yelling at the donkey who pulls off plays like this, and we get comforted by the fact that a donkey who made that play will lose it all most of the time, and you should look for that player in future tournies..

Well.. Player A wasn't a donkey. It was TJ Cloutier in the just completed 2006 Five-Star Poker Classic, and it knocked out Allen Kessler in 17th place ($13,260). Of course, the poker gods had vengeance, and Cloutier was knocked out less then 10 minutes later, when his Kings ran into Aces and was crippled.

Just fair warning, and one I should remember, that just because one makes an ill advised bluff or a donkey play, not to tag the opponent as a donkey in perpetuity..

[MJ4H]

Not necessarily donkeyish. Pros that do this may be "re-stealing," which means they put the raiser on a steal attempt for whatever reason and think he will fold to a big bet. I don't think, for instance, that TJ feels 73o is the best hand here. He has a read on his opponent that he will fold to the raise. He was either wrong about his opponent or his opponent made a great read in return and sensed this about TJ. Of course, the results are not really relevant to the quality of the play.

[Subby]

I think that was a great play. A limp re-raise usually means a monster.

I don't know what the stack sizes were, but wtf calls an all-in with AJo instead of just pushing pf? Kesslerdonkey.

[MJ4H]

Originally Posted by Chris

Ibut wtf calls an all-in with AJo instead of just pushing pf? Kesslerdonkey.

Someone who has been at the table and seen him do it a lot or who has a read on him that he is making this move with garbage.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by MattJones4Heisman

Someone who has been at the table and seen him do it a lot or who has a read on him that he is making this move with garbage.

Exactly. Klesser may have read TJ like a book. He wanted to extract the most from him on it. He goes all in there, TJ probably folds instantly. If you think the guy is heading in with garbage you try to extract the most.

Getting all TJ's chips in was a win for him if he had that read. He just got unlucky. The way it goes sometimes. You make the right read, the right play and you lose.

[Subby]

I can't imagine the limp reraise all-in with garbage is a move that TJ is making a lot, so it would be interesting to get Kessler's take on the hand there. It's one thing to try and trap TJ with a decent hand, but AJo is kind of punky heads up.

[primelord]

FWIW stack sizes would be VERY helpful in trying to determine the value of this play.

[SirFozzie]

I'll try to find it. Cloutier covered Klesser, but he didn't have a dominating chipstack, he was crippled a bit later when the Kings ran into Aces, I found this on CardPlayer.com's Tourney report.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by primelord

FWIW stack sizes would be VERY helpful in trying to determine the value of this play.

Also the size of blinds is crucial here as well. I realize the point of the post was just that if we were online and saw a guy push with 73o we would assume he sucks and that is not always the case. However it is then followed up with some discussion on the merits of the play. There is really no way you can talk about whether the play was any good or not without having some idea of what the stacks were and what their relation to the blinds were. If we know the prize structure we can even determine exactly what the EV of the play was.

If both players had an R of ~10 then let's make an assumption that Kessler would call the allin with a hand range of any pair, AT(os)+ and KQs. That is probably a VERY loose estimate too. That represents roughly 15% of the total hands or so. At that point just taking the BB is very beneficial to TJ and pushing with virtually any hand is likely +EV. If their R was significantly higher then it likely shifts the play to -EV.

[SirFozzie]

Putting this together through the cardplayer reports

The blinds are 4,000-8,000 (1,000 ante).

No listing of the relative chipstacks, but here's some supposition..

3.47 million in chips in play.

Shortly after the hand above, when Hanna doubled through Cloutier (the Aces over Kings), the pot was worth around 275,000.

So, Cloutier had to have at least $137,500 (probably more, there was a few hands between eliminating Kessler and the hand above). Even supposing that we add 5-10K to the total, if they were even (remember, the hand sent Kessler to the rail), the LEAST Cloutier had was 72-75K.

I can see your point about their R, if it was 72-75K then his R was 3-4 (Kessler went out in 17th, so there had to be 9 or 8 at the table, because they redrew when they got down to 18).. there was at least 20K in the pots (4-8K, 1K ante) to start. Even if he had him out chipped 100K-50K. his R was 5).

I don't see why he would have just gone all in at this point, as you said, picking up a set of the blinds and antes would be useful, except you know that Kessler would go all in with any +EV hand heads up against a random hand.. and he made a SMALL raise (which makes me believe that the chipstacks were a lot closer to even, because if it's a dominating chip situation, a small raise makes no sense, since you're pot committed anyway.).

So I think that the chip stacks were very close to even, and Cloutier thought to re-steal.. and got looked up.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

So I think that the chip stacks were very close to even, and Cloutier thought to re-steal.. and got looked up.

While that may be the case I think you would be hard pressed to call this a "donkey" play. The limp by T.J. was an easy one. He was getting 4.5:1 on his money at that point (4.75:1 if there were 9 people). Once Kessler makes the minimum raise there is enough money in the pot to make his push +EV whether Kessler calls or not.

I think certainly T.J. would have preferred a fold. However if it was +EV either way it certainly can't be described as a donkey play.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by primelord

if we know the prize structure we can even determine exactly what the EV of the play was.

dola: Since we don't have the chipstacks, we can't do it except in generalities, but here's the payouts

18-16 $13,260
15-13 (at least) $16,575
12-10 $19,890
9 $26,520
8 $33,150
7 $41,435
6 $58,010
5 $74,585
4 $99,440
3 $174,030
2 $348,065
1 $589,035

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by primelord

While that may be the case I think you would be hard pressed to call this a "donkey" play. The limp by T.J. was an easy one. He was getting 4.5:1 on his money at that point (4.75:1 if there were 9 people). Once Kessler makes the minimum raise there is enough money in the pot to make his push +EV whether Kessler calls or not.

I think certainly T.J. would have preferred a fold. However if it was +EV either way it certainly can't be described as a donkey play.

Let's see.. minuinum raise from Kessler would be +8K. 20K in there to start, and TJ called 4K more. so 32 K

I'm not sure that's +EV versus random hands unless you're taking fold equity into your calculations.. (and we've pretty much established that this is PROBABLY a either or situation. Fold or All In)

[primelord]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

dola: Since we don't have the chipstacks, we can't do it except in generalities, but here's the payouts

18-16 $13,260
15-13 (at least) $16,575
12-10 $19,890
9 $26,520
8 $33,150
7 $41,435
6 $58,010
5 $74,585
4 $99,440
3 $174,030
2 $348,065
1 $589,035

I will probably run the actual numbers tomorrow, but given the likely R of the two players I would say it is pretty unlikely that the play was -EV for T.J.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Let's see.. minuinum raise from Kessler would be +8K. 20K in there to start, and TJ called 4K more. so 32 K

I'm not sure that's +EV versus random hands unless you're taking fold equity into your calculations.. (and we've pretty much established that this is PROBABLY a either or situation. Fold or All In)

Fold equity is the biggest piece of this. Considering T.J. has a bottom 10% hand if he thought Kessler would call 100% of the time regardless of his actual hand then it would be a terrible play. I would have to actually do the ICM calculations to figure it up for sure, but if Kessler only calls with the range of hands I put him on above then I am fairly certain the play would be +EV.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by primelord

Fold equity is the biggest piece of this. Considering T.J. has a bottom 10% hand if he thought Kessler would call 100% of the time regardless of his actual hand then it would be a terrible play. I would have to actually do the ICM calculations to figure it up for sure, but if Kessler only calls with the range of hands I put him on above then I am fairly certain the play would be +EV.

and right now, five people are looking at this thread, going HUHWHA?