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Stats and Volatility
I am wondering if anyone has looked for a correlation between stats and volatility early in a players career. I know Skydog looked at how volatility could be used to help determine if a guy boomed or busted, but do stats help show things also?
I ask because I have a guy I drafted in the 7th round this year, 10 spots from the end. He is currently starting because my top WLB is out with an injury. His current rating is 14/42 with a volatility of 99. He has 27 tackles in 5 starts, and is generally playing very good football. Now, do stats show anything in this instance? Do his pretty good stats (at least for a rookie) mean that his ratings are really better than they appear, or is he just having a good year? Are these stats a predictor of a potential superstar in the making, or are they just an anomoly? I know I've had a couple of players who put up good stats for a year or two with high volatility. They were drafted highly, then busted after a couple of years. But I can't think of a lowly drafted, high volatility guy who put up good numbers. Anyone noticed any correlation between stats and volatility? |
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Part of the reason I wonder is that I have a RB with a very high volatility rating. His overall is something like 36/36, but I have noticed every once in a while he has break out games. Here is an example of his rushing stats 16att, 43yards, 2.6ypc 23att, 58yds, 2.5ypc 12att, 83yds, 6.9ypc 27att, 78yds, 2.8ypc 15att, 41yds, 2.7ypc 12att, 73yds, 6.0ypc I am thinking that volatility also plays a role in game by game performance. Maybe I'm wrong, but every game he averages under 3 yards per carry and then suddenly breaks out for more than 6 a carry. |
bump for the smarter people on the board.
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But are those two standout games just the result of having a big run in each of them that skews the overall ypc? |
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I have noticed sometimes defensive players put up great numbers even though they are rated poorly. I was just suggesting a different reason for it? Here's what I will do later. I'm going to cut every player on my roster at the beginning of the season. Then I will sign all undrafted rookies with high volatility. I will sim a couple seasons and see what type of results I get. *I will do it tonight because I have to work all day |
Good luck with this. I believe there is nothing here.
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I believe Jim is quoted as saying, "Volatility is only the likelyhood of a player boom/bust, with higher number meaning higher chance of busting." Well, he didn't say it exactly like that, but you get the idea.
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I doubt there's anything to this, and even if there were a small volatility effect it'd be very hard to isolate owing to the massive variability in game-to-game and year-to-year performances of even the lowest volatility players.
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Just to follow up, The player in question is about to begin his 2nd year, and he is now rated a 16/41. He finished the season starting 10 of 15 games with 49 tackles.
So he lost 1 future rating and gained 2 present. |
I've typically written off the
Bad players + good stats phenomenon as being Bad players + good stats = stuff happens, especially at certain positions. I've seen it most often with LB's, CB's & RB's. I believe it's basically created by number of opportunities. For example: Enough carries & even a poor RB will generate some yardage. Enough people running in his direction & even a poor LB will rack up tackles Enough people throwing in the direction of a weak CB & even he can get a few picks |
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