The Big 12 has been all about Oklahoma and Texas for the past decade. Since the year 2000, only two teams have won Big 12 Championships outside of Oklahoma and Texas (Colorado, Kansas State). This year figures to be no different with the two titans from the South overshadowing any foes from the North.
Oklahoma State could make a run at the south like Texas Tech did last year, but winning it outright will be nearly impossible without some help. Look for Nebraska to be the odds-on favorite to win the North and possibly be the suprise team nationally of 2009.
North
1. Nebraska
Bo Pelini has promised success to the Husker Nation, and this year might be an early fulfillment of that promise. Nebraska (B+ OVR) looks strong with returning QB Zac Lee leading a Husker offense (B+ OVR) that will have to see some improvements to keep up with the big guns from the South. The Blackshirt defense (B+ OVR) needs to regain its old swagger as well -- SS Larry Asante will anchor the secondary. If the Huskers beat Virginia Tech, they could easily be undefeated when they host Oklahoma in November.
2. Colorado
Colorado (C OVR) returns just 13 starters this year, but in a very weak Big 12 North, the Buffaloes could easily compete. The schedule will not be easy, as the Buffaloes have tough road games at Texas and Oklahoma State. The offense (C+ OVR) will have a strong running game with RB Darrell Scott (90 OVR) leading the way. The defense (C OVR) will have to improve to compete with Nebraska.
3. Kansas
The Jayhawks (C+ OVR) return 14 starters, including QB Todd Reesing (93 OVR). However, the Jayhawks defense (C OVR) will have to improve quickly as they have a tough Big 12 slate. SS Darrell Stuckey (82 OVR) will lead a defense that lost its top tacklers. The offense (B OVR) will be good, and a Big 12 North Championship is not out of reach.
4. Kansas State
The Wildcats (C+ OVR) will at least be more disciplined with Bill Snyder returning as coach. However, the Wildcats lost QB Josh Freeman to graduation and will have trouble replacing him on offense (C+ OVR). The defense (B- OVR) returns eight starters and could be a strong point for the team. The schedule is favorable, so if a capable new QB is found, the Wildcats could realistically compete in the North and make it to a bowl.
5. Missouri
Chase Daniel is gone, and with him goes a golden era of Missouri football. Gary Pinkel will have to rebuild the Tigers (C+ OVR) from nearly scratch. The offense (B- OVR) and defense (C OVR) combine to return just nine starters. WR Jared Perry (89 OVR) and Danario Alexander (84 OVR) are back, but who will throw the ball to them? The Tigers will have a tough time even going bowling.
6. Iowa State
Iowa State (C OVR) is clearly the worst team in the Big 12. QB Austen Arnaud (85 OVR) returns to lead the Cyclone offense (C+ OVR), which returns nine players from last year's unit. The only problem is that last year's unit was the conference's worst. The defense (C- OVR) also lost five starters. But the Cyclones will still best last year's two wins, and could even make a surprise run at a bowl if they pull off a big upset or two.
South
1. Oklahoma
This may be a homer pick, but I think both OU and UT are interchangeable. What makes the difference for me is that the Sooners (A+ OVR) have four players who are potential top 10 draft picks in QB Sam Bradford (99 OVR), TE Jermaine Gresham (99 OVR), OT Trent Williams (95 OVR) and OT Gerald McCoy (95 OVR). The defense (A OVR) is loaded with nine returning starters, and the offense (A+ OVR) should put up plenty of points again. The season comes down to the showdown in Dallas.
2. Texas
Colt McCoy (98 OVR) is my preseason Heisman pick, as I think he has got a chance to have a banner season. The Longhorns (A+ OVR) have to travel to Oklahoma State and play Oklahoma in Dallas, so the conference draw is rather tough. Jordan Shipley (95 OVR) is a big-play threat, and Sergio Kindle (91 OVR) will be a force in the middle of the defense (A OVR).
3. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State (A- OVR) could easily contend for a National Championship this year if the Cowboys can beat Texas and Oklahoma on the road. The offense (A OVR) is spearheaded by three very talented skill players in QB Zac Robinson (95 OVR), RB Kendall Hunter (94 OVR) and WR Dez Bryant (97 OVR). The defense (B+ OVR) will determine whether the Cowboys are good or championship great.
4. Texas Tech
Taylor Potts (85 OVR) is the latest QB to step into the Mike Leach system at Tech -- obviously look for the offense (B- OVR) to put up some serious points. DT Rajon Henley (84 OVR) and CB Jamar Wall (85 OVR) will have to anchor the defense (B- OVR) to give the Red Raiders any chance of competing against the big three in the South this year. Another trip to a bowl is in order, but anything more is a stretch.
5. Baylor
Extremely talented sophomore QB Robert Griffin (89 OVR) will look to continue to help Art Briles build a new era at Baylor (C+ OVR). The Bears have a tough non-conference slate, and the defense (C+ OVR) will have to show some improvement. However, the Bears will have a chance to make a bowl game if they can pull off a couple of upsets along the way.
6. Texas A&M
The Aggies (B OVR) have fallen far, fast. The Wrecking Crew defense (B+ OVR) of old is no more. The Aggies do have Jerrod Johnson (87 OVR) back to help the offense (B OVR). Overall, this will be another down year for the Aggies because they simply do not have enough talent to compete in the Big 12 South.