Try to quell your arousal Big Ten fans, our time is at hand. Big Ten football is just around the corner, which means for a few short months fans of the mid-continental eleven can enjoy interleague competition with the sweet bonus of an automatic BCS bid. But once January comes around, we might as well retreat with our tails between our collective legs and start looking forward to signing day.
I am a lifetime Big Ten fan. I grew up in Big Ten country, attended a Big Ten school for both undergrad and grad school, and currently reside comfortably within the heartland of the conference. But I am also a realist, and I realize that we are a Triple-A league to the SEC, Big 12 and to some degree, the Pac-10. We are third-rate, and I’m not afraid to admit it. Still, we always have that hope for a turnaround, and perhaps last season’s barn-burner in Tempe was a sign of sunnier days ahead. But who knows….
What follows is a short version of my take on the 2009 Big Ten season, with some NCAA Football 10 tidbits and my predictions sprinkled in as well -- not that I have ever made a dime picking winners (as my vehement pick of Alabama in last year’s Sugar Bowl on this site will dictate).
1. Ohio State
NCAA 10 Impact Players: SS Kurt Coleman (94 OVR), RE Thaddeus Gibson (93 OVR), QB Terrelle Pryor (90 OVR)
Projected record: 8-0 (11-1)
Tyrrelle Pryor is the preseason Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, and the 2009 Buckeyes season rests on his ability to live up to these expectations. Assuming that his development as a passer continues, he has an excellent chance of personifying the pre-emptive honor. He will likely have more explosive targets this year in sophomore DeVier Posey and freshman Duron Carter.
Defensively, the 2008 14th-ranked squad will return seven starters and should have no trouble shutting down most Big Ten offenses. Looking at the schedule, I have a hard time placing the Buckeyes above USC -- even at the Horseshoe -- but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pryor and company exact a good measure of revenge in State College on November 7. Look for The Ohio State University to take another conference title and return to the BCS.
2. Penn State
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LB Sean Lee (97 OVR), QB Daryll Clark (94 OVR), LOLB Navorro Bowman (93 OVR)
Projected Record: 7-1 (11-1)
The defending conference co-champions are looking for another joyful autumn in Happy Valley. Although the 2009 Nittany Lions will return only nine starters, they still figure to be a heavy favorite to take the conference title. It also helps that two of those nine starters are QB Daryll Clark and explosive tailback Evan Royster.
Defensively, Sean Lee will return to the lineup at linebacker after missing all of 2008 with a knee injury. Lee figures to be the leader of a rebuilt defense that will be a mixture of youth and experience. PSU’s only true tests will be on the road at Illinois and home against the Buckeyes. They should have little trouble navigating the season with only minimal (if any) defeats.
3. Illinois
NCAA 10 Impact Players: WR Arrelious Benn (96 OVR), QB Juice Williams (92 OVR), ROLB Martez Wilson (85 OVR)
Projected Record: (6-2) 10-2
If the Illini can recapture their underdog magic from 2007, their offensive talent could very well help them rise above the pack in the Big Ten. Senior QB Juice Williams has never been an efficient passer, but has the talent to muscle his way to career numbers this season. The Illini also get to rent superstar wideout Arrelious Benn from the NFL for one more year -- he will be one of the conference’s shining stars on the national scene.
On the other side of the ball, the defense needs to stop the bleeding -- the team defense was rated 77th against the run a year ago. The schedule will be no easy going for Ron Zook’s crew, but if the stars align on the offensive side of the ball, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the school return to its 2007 form.
4. Michigan State
NCAA 10 Impact Players: MLB Greg Jones (91 OVR), WR Mark Dell (87 OVR), QB Kirk Cousins (85 OVR)
Projected Record: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
418 total touches, 1,827 total yards from scrimmage and 22 touchdowns, that's what the Spartans need to replace a season after Javon Ringer’s exit. It is a monumental task. Look for Michigan State’s defense to carry the load, as it's a talented defense lead by first team Big Ten linebacker Greg Jones.
The battle to replace Ringer could end with true freshman Edwin Baker or Larry Caper sitting atop the mountain, giving Sparty fans much excitement for the future. Honestly, I might be slightly underestimating the Spartans here because they could become force to be reckoned with if offensive playmakers emerge. I also could see a big upset against Penn State during the final game of the season.
5. Northwestern
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Corey Wootton (93 OVR), FS Brendan Smith (88 OVR), QB Mike Kafka (86 OVR)
Projected Record: 4-4 (8-4 overall)
The offense will feature almost an entirely new cast of skill players, with the exception of tight end Josh Rooks, who only hauled in seven passes last season. On the upside, senior QB Mike Kafka has had nearly his entire collegiate career to learn the offense and should provide some excitement running as well as throwing the football.
Defense may be -- uncharacteristically -– the high point of the 2009 Wildcats team. DE Corey Wootton has the pro scouts drooling and Big Ten quarterbacks trembling, and he will be looking to build upon his 10 sacks from 2008. Don’t sleep on the 'Cats, they could very well make this prediction look foolish.
6. Wisconsin
NCAA 10 Impact Players: TE Garrett Graham (92 OVR), O'Brien Schofield (91 OVR), HB John Clay (90 OVR)
Projected Record:4-4 (8-4 overall)
Similar to Michigan State, the Badgers must replace a prominent tailback after losing P.J. Hill, the school’s third all-time leading rusher. The upside to this problem is the 6-foot-2-inch 247-pound wrecking ball named John Clay. Clay put together 895 yards on the ground along with nine touchdowns in 2008. I am certainly looking forward to watching Clay abuse opposing linebackers and defensive backs this season. QB Dustin Sherer is an average talent, so look for redshirt freshman Curt Phillips to take the reigns before season’s end.
Last year’s standout defense is all but depleted, so the offense's ground game will dictate the Badgers’ success.
7. Michigan
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Brandon Graham (94 OVR), CB Donovan Warren (91 OVR), HB Brandon Minor (89 OVR)
Projected Record: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
I will probably get shelled from the anti-Wolverine crowd here, but I see Michigan taking a major step forward. Maybe the team won't triple last year’s win total like Rich Rod did in year two at WVU, but I can still the team taking a bigger step forward than most of the experts are predicting. The offense will bring back nine of 11 starters, which will be a powerful aid for elusive freshman QB Tate Forcier, who will likely win the job as Rodriguez’s star signal caller.
New defensive coordinator Greg Robinson will likely shake things up defensively, perhaps helping the Wolverines regain some fury and intimidation on D. I may be completely off-base, but something in my gut tells me to anticipate a couple of conference upsets by the Wolverines this year.
8. Iowa
NCAA 10 Impact Players: MLB Pat Angerer (93 OVR), CB Amari Spievey (90 OVR), QB Richard Stanzi (88 OVR)
Projected Record: 4-4 (7-5)
Iowa won games in 2008 with a blue-collar style -- run the ball and play shutdown defense. Unfortunately for the Iowa City faithful, the 2009 Hawkeyes must replace the primary playmakers who contributed to their gutty style. Shonn Greene is now a proud member of the New York Jets; dominant defensive tackles Matt Kroul and Mitch King are also history. Still, there is reason for hope. Senior Richard Stanzi is not a game-breaker but can be a productive game manager. His top target, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, will also be back in the Hawkeyes starting lineup.
The Hawkeyes defense ranked 12th in the nation last season, and even though the defense will be without the aforementioned D-line standouts, the team is still bringing back seven starters. If Iowa can establish a dominant ground game that drives the offense, the Hawkeyes could duplicate last season’s success; however, I think the initial odds are not in their favor.
9. Minnesota
NCAA 10 Impact Players: WR Eric Decker (92 OVR), QB Adam Weber (89 OVR), CB Traye Simmons (86 OVR)
Projected Record: 1-7 (4-8)
Before you read any further, I will freely admit that the Golden Gophers are the most likely team to make me look very, very stupid in 2009. They have sneaky upside. However, I do think there are several things working against them. The schedule is a tough one, with road games at Columbus and Happy Valley, as well an early non-conference contest against a tough Cal team. The outdoor environment of the beautiful new TCF Bank Stadium may also work against the Gophers, as that late-fall climate could work against the Adam Weber-to-Erick Decker aerial show.
The defense was putrid in 2008, and the 2009 lineup is looking largely familiar. Of all my predictions, however, something tells me that this one will end up haunting me the most.
10. Purdue
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Ryan Kerrigan (90 OVR), WR Aaron Valentin (89 OVR), SS Torri Williams (89 OVR)
Projected Record: 1-7 (2-10 overall)
Looking forward to an exciting season of Boiler football? Pur-Don’t. New head Coach Danny Hope brings an offensive unit devoid of all of last year’s playmakers. At some Big Ten media days, Hope also alluded to a more run-oriented Purdue offense in 2009. The entirely new cast of offensive characters, lead by fifth-year senior QB Joey Elliot, must carve out an identity in the post-Tiller era. However, I doubt it will be an identity to cherish.
Non-conference games against Notre Dame and Oregon won’t help the Boilers bolster their record much either. Look for the team's first Big Ten victory to come over the Hoosiers when the teams battle for the Old Oaken Bucket on November 21.
11. Indiana
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Jammie Kirlew (92 OVR), RE Greg Middleton (89 OVR), WR Ray Fisher* (87 OVR)
Projected Record 0-8 (2-10)
Bloomington sports fans have had little to cheer about during the past couple of years. Sadly, 2009 will bring more misery. The new pistol-style offense will be interesting, but would have been more interesting had ex-Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis not been shifted to wideout before being subsequently booted off the team. Lewis was the closest thing the Hoosiers had to a home-run threat, and his dismissal leaves the Bloomington cupboard pretty bare.
IU’s defense is very close to last year’s unit, which was nearly last in the country and gave up over 35 points a game and 171.7 yards on the ground. If IU is able to win any games beyond early contests against Eastern Kentucky and Akron, I will be shocked. And I don’t consider those two games automatic wins, either.
*Although NCAA 10 has Ray Fisher listed as an impact receiver, he was actually changed to a CB and is projected to start. Adjust your rosters accordingly.
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Submitted on: 08/13/2009 by
Wil McCombs
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