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OS NCAA 10 Preview: Big Ten

Try to quell your arousal Big Ten fans, our time is at hand. Big Ten football is just around the corner, which means for a few short months fans of the mid-continental eleven can enjoy interleague competition with the sweet bonus of an automatic BCS bid. But once January comes around, we might as well retreat with our tails between our collective legs and start looking forward to signing day.

I am a lifetime Big Ten fan. I grew up in Big Ten country, attended a Big Ten school for both undergrad and grad school, and currently reside comfortably within the heartland of the conference. But I am also a realist, and I realize that we are a Triple-A league to the SEC, Big 12 and to some degree, the Pac-10. We are third-rate, and I’m not afraid to admit it. Still, we always have that hope for a turnaround, and perhaps last season’s barn-burner in Tempe was a sign of sunnier days ahead. But who knows….

What follows is a short version of my take on the 2009 Big Ten season, with some NCAA Football 10 tidbits and my predictions sprinkled in as well -- not that I have ever made a dime picking winners (as my vehement pick of Alabama in last year’s Sugar Bowl on this site will dictate).

1. Ohio State
NCAA 10 Impact Players: SS Kurt Coleman (94 OVR), RE Thaddeus Gibson (93 OVR), QB Terrelle Pryor (90 OVR)
Projected record: 8-0 (11-1)

Tyrrelle Pryor is the preseason Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, and the 2009 Buckeyes season rests on his ability to live up to these expectations. Assuming that his development as a passer continues, he has an excellent chance of personifying the pre-emptive honor. He will likely have more explosive targets this year in sophomore DeVier Posey and freshman Duron Carter.

Defensively, the 2008 14th-ranked squad will return seven starters and should have no trouble shutting down most Big Ten offenses. Looking at the schedule, I have a hard time placing the Buckeyes above USC -- even at the Horseshoe -- but I wouldn’t be surprised if Pryor and company exact a good measure of revenge in State College on November 7. Look for The Ohio State University to take another conference title and return to the BCS.

2. Penn State
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LB Sean Lee (97 OVR), QB Daryll Clark (94 OVR), LOLB Navorro Bowman (93 OVR)
Projected Record: 7-1 (11-1)

The defending conference co-champions are looking for another joyful autumn in Happy Valley. Although the 2009 Nittany Lions will return only nine starters, they still figure to be a heavy favorite to take the conference title. It also helps that two of those nine starters are QB Daryll Clark and explosive tailback Evan Royster.

Defensively, Sean Lee will return to the lineup at linebacker after missing all of 2008 with a knee injury. Lee figures to be the leader of a rebuilt defense that will be a mixture of youth and experience. PSU’s only true tests will be on the road at Illinois and home against the Buckeyes. They should have little trouble navigating the season with only minimal (if any) defeats.

3. Illinois
NCAA 10 Impact Players: WR Arrelious Benn (96 OVR), QB Juice Williams (92 OVR), ROLB Martez Wilson (85 OVR)
Projected Record: (6-2) 10-2

If the Illini can recapture their underdog magic from 2007, their offensive talent could very well help them rise above the pack in the Big Ten. Senior QB Juice Williams has never been an efficient passer, but has the talent to muscle his way to career numbers this season. The Illini also get to rent superstar wideout Arrelious Benn from the NFL for one more year -- he will be one of the conference’s shining stars on the national scene.

On the other side of the ball, the defense needs to stop the bleeding -- the team defense was rated 77th against the run a year ago. The schedule will be no easy going for Ron Zook’s crew, but if the stars align on the offensive side of the ball, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the school return to its 2007 form.

4. Michigan State
NCAA 10 Impact Players: MLB Greg Jones (91 OVR), WR Mark Dell (87 OVR), QB Kirk Cousins (85 OVR)
Projected Record: 5-3 (8-4 overall)

418 total touches, 1,827 total yards from scrimmage and 22 touchdowns, that's what the Spartans need to replace a season after Javon Ringer’s exit. It is a monumental task. Look for Michigan State’s defense to carry the load, as it's a talented defense lead by first team Big Ten linebacker Greg Jones.

The battle to replace Ringer could end with true freshman Edwin Baker or Larry Caper sitting atop the mountain, giving Sparty fans much excitement for the future. Honestly, I might be slightly underestimating the Spartans here because they could become force to be reckoned with if offensive playmakers emerge. I also could see a big upset against Penn State during the final game of the season.

5. Northwestern
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Corey Wootton (93 OVR), FS Brendan Smith (88 OVR), QB Mike Kafka (86 OVR)
Projected Record: 4-4 (8-4 overall)

The offense will feature almost an entirely new cast of skill players, with the exception of tight end Josh Rooks, who only hauled in seven passes last season. On the upside, senior QB Mike Kafka has had nearly his entire collegiate career to learn the offense and should provide some excitement running as well as throwing the football.

Defense may be -- uncharacteristically -– the high point of the 2009 Wildcats team. DE Corey Wootton has the pro scouts drooling and Big Ten quarterbacks trembling, and he will be looking to build upon his 10 sacks from 2008. Don’t sleep on the 'Cats, they could very well make this prediction look foolish.

6. Wisconsin
NCAA 10 Impact Players: TE Garrett Graham (92 OVR), O'Brien Schofield (91 OVR), HB John Clay (90 OVR)
Projected Record:4-4 (8-4 overall)

Similar to Michigan State, the Badgers must replace a prominent tailback after losing P.J. Hill, the school’s third all-time leading rusher. The upside to this problem is the 6-foot-2-inch 247-pound wrecking ball named John Clay. Clay put together 895 yards on the ground along with nine touchdowns in 2008. I am certainly looking forward to watching Clay abuse opposing linebackers and defensive backs this season. QB Dustin Sherer is an average talent, so look for redshirt freshman Curt Phillips to take the reigns before season’s end.

Last year’s standout defense is all but depleted, so the offense's ground game will dictate the Badgers’ success.

7. Michigan
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Brandon Graham (94 OVR), CB Donovan Warren (91 OVR), HB Brandon Minor (89 OVR)
Projected Record: 4-4 (7-5 overall)

I will probably get shelled from the anti-Wolverine crowd here, but I see Michigan taking a major step forward. Maybe the team won't triple last year’s win total like Rich Rod did in year two at WVU, but I can still the team taking a bigger step forward than most of the experts are predicting. The offense will bring back nine of 11 starters, which will be a powerful aid for elusive freshman QB Tate Forcier, who will likely win the job as Rodriguez’s star signal caller.

New defensive coordinator Greg Robinson will likely shake things up defensively, perhaps helping the Wolverines regain some fury and intimidation on D. I may be completely off-base, but something in my gut tells me to anticipate a couple of conference upsets by the Wolverines this year.

8. Iowa
NCAA 10 Impact Players: MLB Pat Angerer (93 OVR), CB Amari Spievey (90 OVR), QB Richard Stanzi (88 OVR)
Projected Record: 4-4 (7-5)

Iowa won games in 2008 with a blue-collar style -- run the ball and play shutdown defense. Unfortunately for the Iowa City faithful, the 2009 Hawkeyes must replace the primary playmakers who contributed to their gutty style. Shonn Greene is now a proud member of the New York Jets; dominant defensive tackles Matt Kroul and Mitch King are also history. Still, there is reason for hope. Senior Richard Stanzi is not a game-breaker but can be a productive game manager. His top target, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, will also be back in the Hawkeyes starting lineup.

The Hawkeyes defense ranked 12th in the nation last season, and even though the defense will be without the aforementioned D-line standouts, the team is still bringing back seven starters. If Iowa can establish a dominant ground game that drives the offense, the Hawkeyes could duplicate last season’s success; however, I think the initial odds are not in their favor.

9. Minnesota
NCAA 10 Impact Players: WR Eric Decker (92 OVR), QB Adam Weber (89 OVR), CB Traye Simmons (86 OVR)
Projected Record: 1-7 (4-8)

Before you read any further, I will freely admit that the Golden Gophers are the most likely team to make me look very, very stupid in 2009. They have sneaky upside. However, I do think there are several things working against them. The schedule is a tough one, with road games at Columbus and Happy Valley, as well an early non-conference contest against a tough Cal team. The outdoor environment of the beautiful new TCF Bank Stadium may also work against the Gophers, as that late-fall climate could work against the Adam Weber-to-Erick Decker aerial show.

The defense was putrid in 2008, and the 2009 lineup is looking largely familiar. Of all my predictions, however, something tells me that this one will end up haunting me the most.

10. Purdue
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Ryan Kerrigan (90 OVR), WR Aaron Valentin (89 OVR), SS Torri Williams (89 OVR)
Projected Record: 1-7 (2-10 overall)

Looking forward to an exciting season of Boiler football? Pur-Don’t. New head Coach Danny Hope brings an offensive unit devoid of all of last year’s playmakers. At some Big Ten media days, Hope also alluded to a more run-oriented Purdue offense in 2009. The entirely new cast of offensive characters, lead by fifth-year senior QB Joey Elliot, must carve out an identity in the post-Tiller era. However, I doubt it will be an identity to cherish.

Non-conference games against Notre Dame and Oregon won’t help the Boilers bolster their record much either. Look for the team's first Big Ten victory to come over the Hoosiers when the teams battle for the Old Oaken Bucket on November 21.

11. Indiana
NCAA 10 Impact Players: LE Jammie Kirlew (92 OVR), RE Greg Middleton (89 OVR), WR Ray Fisher* (87 OVR)
Projected Record 0-8 (2-10)

Bloomington sports fans have had little to cheer about during the past couple of years. Sadly, 2009 will bring more misery. The new pistol-style offense will be interesting, but would have been more interesting had ex-Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis not been shifted to wideout before being subsequently booted off the team. Lewis was the closest thing the Hoosiers had to a home-run threat, and his dismissal leaves the Bloomington cupboard pretty bare.

IU’s defense is very close to last year’s unit, which was nearly last in the country and gave up over 35 points a game and 171.7 yards on the ground. If IU is able to win any games beyond early contests against Eastern Kentucky and Akron, I will be shocked. And I don’t consider those two games automatic wins, either.

*Although NCAA 10 has Ray Fisher listed as an impact receiver, he was actually changed to a CB and is projected to start. Adjust your rosters accordingly.


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Member Comments
# 1 phsx2010 @ 08/13/09 06:45 PM
Iowa 8th in the B10?! Sorry, goin to have to disagree with you on that one. There are reasons they are in many Top 25 polls.
 
# 2 FredoXV @ 08/13/09 07:01 PM
I agree with you in that there are reasons they are in the pre-season top 25, the strongest of which is their defense. I do think, however, many are under-valuing the loss of Greene to the overall offense. We'll see though, my opinion is no more valid than yours!
 
# 3 Kriech23 @ 08/13/09 07:53 PM
Iowa behind Northwestern is almost laughable. Iowa should be 4th or 5th. I'm looking for Stanzi to have a big year. Buckeyes and Nittany Lions again for the Big Ten Title. That'll be one of the biggest games of the year.
 
# 4 FredoXV @ 08/13/09 08:07 PM
I am l also ooking forward to the big game in State College on November 7th. Last year's contest in Columbus was easily the game of the year in the conference, it will likely be the only "great" game of the year on the national scale.
 
# 5 ChicagoSparty @ 08/13/09 08:20 PM
Would slide Wisconsin and Iowa up, and Northwestern and Illinois down. Yes, they both lost their running backs and some playmakers on defense, but both teams are consistently excellent in the trenches. And John Clay (as you note) and Jewel Hampton are great running backs, IMO. Meanwhile, Illinois is the most interesting team to me---great skill on offense but zero defense.
 
# 6 FredoXV @ 08/13/09 08:33 PM
ChicagoSparty -

Interestingly enough, the Illini defense was all the hype in camp a year ago, and the unit completely crapped the bed once the season started. I'm very interested to see how Martez Wilson develops at linebacker, as the staff has not yet been able to develop his freakish raw talent. If he can emerge, it would be a huge boost to the D.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing how Hampton emerges in Greene's wake. You are correct, Iowa is traditionally gritty up front, and they could very well make me look foolish for putting them on the low end of the standings. If you see my projected records though, i have them going 4-4(7-5), right in the hunt, so a higher finish wouldn't surprise me.
 
# 7 ChiSox05 @ 08/13/09 08:44 PM
Maybe a little low for Iowa but I have never bought the hype for them this year. I am not saying they are going to be trash cause I think they will have a solid team but I just don't see them having a great year. The Big 10 is pretty hard to rank this year as most teams have plenty of questions marks, IMO it is a lot easier to break down into tears.

You have Ohio State and Penn State who are both going to be very very good teams and I cant see either of them finishing out of the top three unless their team plane crashes.

Then you have teams like Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. They all have talent but they also have plenty of question marks and they could really finish in any order. Illinois has plenty of talent especially on the offense but as last year prove, that doesn't equal wins. Michigan State will have to replace RB Javon Ringer who was their offense last year. Northwestern lost plenty of skill players but Mike Kaftka is still there. Iowa loses Greene but has guys like Hampton who could step in and Stanzi has played alright but the jury is still out on him. Wisconsin has plenty of talent and so Does Michigan but it will be interesting to see how their seasons come together, especially Michicagn with the Frosh QB. minnesota also has plenty of talent in Erin Decker and Adam Webber.

Then you have Indian and Purdue who just don't have to the players to succeed in the conference.

just my quick thoughts and $.02
 
# 8 CreatineKasey @ 08/14/09 11:42 AM
I've gone to every home Gopher game for the last 4 years and I honestly think their defense IMPROVED last year. They really did fall off during conference play, but early on they looked like a different team. They lack athleticism in the front 7... but have had solid recruiting classes. Decker will be a force all season. I expect him to pull in a dozen TDs. I grew up with the guy in a small town and played all sports with him. We knew he was special when we were young. They are also getting their starting RB back. Remember, last year they had freshmen running the ball all season and 2 freshmen on the OL.

I'd move Michigan up. They still have large amounts of talent there, and with a QB that fits their system they could start becoming a force again. Northwestern and Illinois will both fail to reach your rankings also in my opinion. Both teams just haven't been up to snuff on defense traditionally. Ohio State with Terelle Prior is much different than Ohio State without him. They are much more explosive on offense at the QB position, definitely more than when Troy Smith started. Prior is a Vince Young type athlete who should take over games. I like how Iowa stays true to Big 10 football with defense and the running game. Hope they keep that tradition.

Anyway, I loved the review and am very excited for big 10 football to get started again very soon!
 
# 9 Jistic @ 08/14/09 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriech23
Iowa behind Northwestern is almost laughable.
Was it laughable when NU beat Iowa in Iowa city and finished ahead of them in the Big 10 last year?
 
# 10 Kriech23 @ 08/14/09 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jistic
Was it laughable when NU beat Iowa in Iowa city and finished ahead of them in the Big 10 last year?
Not really, laughable. But, I thought it was when Iowa beat #3 Penn St. Anyways, this is a preview for this upcoming year. I'm sorry your living in the past. Hopefully you can get past that.
 
# 11 Jistic @ 08/14/09 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kriech23
Not really, laughable. But, I thought it was when Iowa beat #3 Penn St. Anyways, this is a preview for this upcoming year. I'm sorry your living in the past. Hopefully you can get past that.


One year ago is "Living in the past"?

Cool. Then I look forward to Florida to not being bowl eligible this year now that the new age of college football is upon us.

I'm going with an SMU/Army MNC.
 
# 12 Kriech23 @ 08/14/09 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jistic


One year ago is "Living in the past"?

Cool. Then I look forward to Florida to not being bowl eligible this year now that the new age of college football is upon us.

I'm going with an SMU/Army MNC.
Last year is irrelevant to this upcoming year. Players leaving and new recruits, I guess mean nothing to you.
 
# 13 BlueDev1L @ 08/14/09 10:56 PM
NU will finish 4th, calling it right now. Kafka just needs to learn to pass instead of running as much, and the Defense is solid. If Stephen Simmons is a solid runner, NU will finish top 25.
 
# 14 mgoblue678 @ 08/17/09 05:35 AM
I have to disagree with having MSU and Northwestern that high. MSU lost Ringer who carried most of the load. You take him off of that team last year and they are an average to bad football team who loses at least a couple more games. Also you have to look at how they played against better competion, getting run off the field against both OSU and PSU. I think they was more an indication of their team than racking up wins against lesser competion. Also they don't have rb's or a qb that really have shown they can carry the load at this level yet. Also saying they can beat a Penn State team that ripped them a new one is a bit of a stretch.

As far as Northwestern goes they simply don't have the same talent and depth to match the teams at the top of the conference. I think Pat Fiztgerald is a good coach but he is working with less talent than the conferences elite.

I also feel as though Michigan is going to be finish higher than both Northwestern and MSU.

Also I think you are severly underrating Iowa. There defense is always strong and Stanzi is a good qb. I could see them finishing in the top 4.

I do agree with your top 3 though. One or another the Big Ten should be interesting, alot of uncertainty, players being replaced and question marks.
 

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