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UEFA Champions League Final Simulation

Manchester United FC. FC Barcelona. Each club has a renowned history, a worldwide group of supporters (as well as detractors), and both are on their way to accomplishing historic achievements. But to conquer that final mark on the checklist, these two soccer superpowers will have to faceoff against each other in the UEFA Champions League Final. And as people like to say about LeBron James: "We will all be witnesses."

So later today at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy, the world will indeed be witnesses. Witnesses to a showdown between two clubs with history on the line. Witnesses to a contest between two clubs who also have quite a history with each other (including facing each other in the semifinals last year). And finally, witnesses to a competition between two clubs with many similarities and dissimilarities, which creates a number of intriguing storylines for this contest.

For instance, they're both league champions in their respective countries. Both are gunning for a treble of sorts. In Samuel Eto'o and Carlos Tevez, they both yield important strikers who face uncertain futures. Both employ perennial world player of the year candidates in Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Both are missing important players for the finals match because of contentious refereeing decisions in the semifinals -- Darren Fletcher for Man United and Eric Abidal and Dani Alves for Barcelona will miss the finals. And both have shown historic successes on opposite ends of the pitch this season: Barcelona has displayed a legendary offense, and Manchester United's defense has broken numerous records.

So there's no doubt that this will be an be an intriguing game, but how will it shape up? Who will prevail? Short of being a psychic or a time-traveler, the next best means are, of course, to play video games. And what better way to decipher this entanglement of footy champions than to utilize my copies of FIFA 09 and Pro Evolution Soccer 09 to help crown a virtual club champion of Europe.

But first, I must sort out some particulars, such as, who will each club place in its starting 11? and what formation will each squad utilize? I'll try to make educated guesses on those fronts.

The Matchups

Going into the match today, both clubs have some question marks in terms of who they will call on to start for them.

For instance, each team will have players unavailable, and both teams have key players facing some fitness issues. Barcelona may have a larger task ahead of them as they'll be missing a trio of starting defenders in Rafa Marquez, Dani Alves and Eric Abidal. They will also hope that Andres Iniesta and Thierry Henry are fit enough to play in the final. Meanwhile, Man United will be missing midfielder Darren Fletcher, and will hope that their calm force on defense, Rio Ferdinand, is healthy enough for the final.

Already, there are some reports of the (alleged) lineups that Man United skipper Sir Alex Ferguson and Barcelona boss Josep Guardiola have decided on for the final. While you must take some of those media reports with a grain of salt, as it could all be lies or a huge smokescreen, it's all I can really work with at this point. So I will use them as a blueprint while selecting the two squads.

So for Manchester United, I believe they will go with a lineup of:


--------------------Edwin van der Sar--------------------
--John O'Shea--Rio Ferdinand--Nemanja Vidic--Patrice Evra
--------Anderson----Michael Carrick----Ryan Giggs------
-----Park Ji-Sung-----------------------Wayne Rooney--
--------------------Cristiano Ronaldo-------------------

Bench: Tomasz Kuszczak, Rafael, Johnny Evans, Paul Scholes, Nani, Carlos Tevez, Dimitar Berbatov

It is a 4-3-3 that can fold into a 4-5-1 when Park and Rooney track back. It is essentially similar to the formation and lineup that bested Arsenal in the second leg of their semifinals matchup. Giggs will take the place of Fletcher, and Park deserves the opportunity to start after being snubbed in the finals last year. Leaving Tevez and Berbatov on the bench will certainly lead to some questions, but they give United some depth on the bench and make for strong substitutes.

As for Barcelona, they face more questions because of their already stated losses. But I think they'll go with a lineup of:


-------------------Victor Valdes--------------------
-Carlos Puyol--Gerard Pique--Yaya Toure--Seydou Keita
-------------------Sergi Busquets-------------------
---------------Xavi-----------Andres Iniesta--------
------Lionel Messi-----------------Thierry Henry-----
-------------------Samuel Eto'o---------------------

Bench: Jose Manuel Pinto, Sylvinho, Gabriel Milito, Martin Caceres, Eidur Gudjohnsen, Aliaksandr Hleb, Bojan

Essentially a 4-3-3 that can slide into a 4-1-2-3 depending on Busquets' role, but this lineup is by no means definite for the finals match. For instance, Toure could slide in for Busquets, Puyol could return to center back, and Caceres could take over at right back. Also, Sylvinho could start in place of Keita because he has more experience at the position. So although I'm happy with this lineup, I wouldn't be surprised if Guardiola employs something different.

Well, as you can see from above, these two lineups should make for quite a spectacle. You essentially have the amazing pace and skill of the Barca midfield trying to infiltrate the solid defense of Man United. And the individual matchups, such as Evra versus Messi and Ronaldo against the Barca center backs, should also provide equal entertainment.

So with the expected lineups in place, let's get on with it.

The Simulations

In order to simulate the Man United-Barca contest in both PES and FIFA, I made sure that I had the most up-to-date rosters available (latest Live Season updates in FIFA, and I'm playing on version 1.40 in PES) and pre-arranged each lineup to the ones specified above. Both games were set for 10-minute halves with PES on the top difficulty and FIFA on World Class difficulty. The Stadio Olimpico is available on both games, so that's also where they played (not that it really matters).

So with that all set, I just watched and marked down what I witnessed.

FIFA 09


First Half

3 - Iniesta had Barca's first chance early on. He had a scoring chance in the box, but his attempt was saved by VDS.

5 - Ronaldo had United's first opportunity. He had cut into the box, weaving past his man, but his shot went way over.

15 - Puyol given a yellow for a poor tackle on Rooney.

19 - First big Barca chance occured when Messi got a head onto a Eto'o cross. The ball ended up hitting the crossbar.

22 - United came right back with two chances. Rooney headed the ball off the crossbar and managed a followup attempt that went way over the goal.

23 - Xavi given a yellow for a clumsy tackle on Giggs.

35 - Ferdinand took down Eto’o just outside the box. The free kick for Barca is taken by Eto’o; he ends up hitting it straight at VDS.

45 - Iniesta given a yellow for a harsh tackle on Park.

45 - The first half ended with the teams drawn at nil-nil. It was an even affair, with both teams generating some chances but lacking that final touch.

Halftime Stats

Manchester United-Barcelona

Shots: 1-8 (12%) 4-7 (57%)
Passing Accuracy: 81%-88%
Possession: 49%-51%
Tackles: 7-10
Fouls: 1-5
Yellow Cards: 0-3
Corners: 2-0

Second Half

57 - First substitutions occurred when Scholes took over for Giggs on United, and Sylvinho took the place of Yaya Toure on Barca.

59 - Second set of subs came into the gane: Nani for Park and Caceres for Keita.

68 - O’Shea picked up a yellow for taking down Iniesta.

69 - Messi had Barca's first major chance of the half. He took a hard shot just outside the box, but it was easily handled by VDS.

73 - Carrick was given a yellow for a sliding tackle that seemingly injured Busquets, but Busquets was able to shake it off and continue on.

86 - United came up with one of their few chances of the half as Scholes was on the end of a Carrick cross. Unfortunately for United, his header was saved by Valdes.

89 - The final substitution for United occurred when the youngster Johnny Evans came on for Vidic.

90 - The absolute best chance of the match so far came in the 90th minute. Messi sent a beautiful through ball to Eto’o, leaving the striker one on one with the keeper. However, VDS came up and just barely blocked the driving shot by Eto’o, saving the day for United.

90 - The second half ended. Barca had maintained a dominant hold on possession, keeping the ball 57 percent of the time. However, they lacked that final scoring touch.

Stats After 90

Manchester United-Barcelona

Shots: 2-9 (22%) 6-12 (50%)
Passing Accuracy: 79%-88%
Possession: 43%-57%
Tackles: 14-12
Fouls: 3-5
Yellow Cards: 2-3
Corners: 2-1

Extra Time

100 - United had the majority of possession during the first session of extra time, and they got their first chance in a long while when Scholes hit a shot that was eerily similar to the one that put United ahead in last year’s Champions League semifinal. But this time the ball just didn't curl correctly for him and instead went wide.

101 - United came right back with another chance, as Ronaldo dribbled past a number of Barca players before driving one -- but yet again, the ball went wide.

105 - In the final minute of the first extra-time period, United came extremely close to scoring when Ronaldo rushed into the box and headed a crossed ball from Anderson. Valdes was equal to the task, though, and reacted quickly to block the shot.

105 - First extra-time session ended with the teams still unable to score. Could this be headed for penalty kicks?

108 - Another United chance went begging, as Nani headed a Rooney cross right off the cross bar.

117 - After dominating the majority of extra time, United was finally able to come through and score the match's first goal. Ronaldo took advantage of a Puyol error in the box by taking possession of the ball, dribbling into the six-yard box and passing it smoothly over to the unmarked Nani, who slid the ball into the open, unguarded cage. United lead 1-0.

120 - You want talk about nail-biters? This first simulated matchup on FIFA 09 was a definite toss-up that went right down to the end, as that Nani goal would was the decider. The match ended 1-nil.

And with the victory, the Manchester United Red Devils are crowned as the champions of the UEFA Champions League, at least in this FIFA 09 simulation. Perhaps the result will be different on PES 09?

Final Stats

Manchester United-Barcelona

Goals: 1-0 Nani (117)
Shots: 5-15 (33%) 6-12 (50%)
Passing Accuracy: 78%-85%
Possession: 46%-54%
Tackles: 19-14
Fouls: 4-5
Yellow Cards: 2-3
Corners: 3-1

Pro Evolution Soccer 09


So with Manchester United already crowned as champions in FIFA 09, who will prevail in Pro Evolution Soccer 09, the game that holds the official UEFA Champions League license. Will Barcelona come out ahead? Or will Manchester United make it two-for-two in my virtual simulations? Let's find out.

First Half

4 - Well, in large contrast to the FIFA simulation, we did not have to wait long for a goal here, as United opened up the scoring early. Carrick feed Ronaldo a crisp chip pass over the Barca defense, which left Ronaldo one-on-one with Valdes. Ronaldo nailed it in off the bounce to give United the early 1-nil lead.

5 - Wow! Just one minute later Barca managed to tie it back up. Nemanja Vidic and Michael Carrick smacked into each other in the box, leaving the ball to Thierry Henry, who quickly feed it to an open Samuel Eto’o for a goal. The match is tied at 1-1.

14 - Ronaldo had a decent chance at this point in the match. He dribbled past three Barca defenders and got into the box, but the end result was lacking -- he skied one high over the goal.

18 - Pique is yellow carded after taking down Ronaldo right outside the box. And off the free kick, Ronaldo made Barca pay by depositing a superb curling shot into the top left corner. Valdes got his hand on it, but the ball had already just crossed the line. Ronaldo 2 – Barca 1.

27 - Puyol picked up Barca’s second yellow after taking down an advancing Wayne Rooney.

34 - The Ronaldo show is must-see-TV. The Barca defense failed to clear a loose ball in the box, so Ronaldo converted the error into a third goal by driving a hard blast into the low right-hand corner. Valdes simply had no chance. Ronaldo 3 - Barca 1

38 - Patrice Evra picked up a yellow. He lunged in on Xavi but mistimed the tackle. Xavi took the resulting free kick and came extremely close to scoring. His ball beat van der Sar, but unluckily for Barca, the ball struck the crossbar.

43 - Barca had another quality chance when an unmarked Messi took a cross from Xavi and drove the ball hard. But it was right at van der Sar, who saved the hard-struck ball before the defense cleared out the rebound.

45 - The first half ended with Manchester United up 3-1.

Halftime Stats

Manchester United-Barcelona

Goals: 3-1 Ronaldo (4, 18, 34) Eto'o (5)
Shots: 3-7 (42%) 2-5 (40%)
Passes: 101-119 (84%) 105-127 (82%)
Fouls: 2-3
Free Kicks: 3-2
Corner Kicks: 2-0
Interceptions: 22-18

Second Half

49 - Early in the half, Barca managed to get one back when Pique scored on his old club. Off of a corner, he took advantage of a United defensive mistake and slotted a shot into the lower left corner. The score: 3-2.

52 - Barca came extremely close to equalizing. Henry fed a cutting Iniesta, who had beaten his man, leaving Iniesta with no one ahead of him but the keeper. Iniesta attempted a quick, hard shot, but van der Sar dealt with the attempt easily and pushed it aside for a Barcelona corner.

55 - Barca created another scoring chance. Henry dribbled deftly past multiple United defenders and set up an opportunity for an open Puyol. But it was all for naught -- Puyol’s shot was wide right of the goal.

60 - Yet another lovely chance for Barca. From the half-line, Busquets lofted a beautiful chipped shot right over the United defense. The pass found a streaking Eto’o, who was clear on goal. However, VDS came up big once again and saved the Eto’o shot attempt.

67 - A surprise substitution occurred when Messi came off for Eidur Gudjohnsen.

81 - United made a sub: Scholes came in for Anderson.

87 - Ronaldo sealed the victory for United by scoring his fourth goal. He received a pass from Rooney and dribbled past his lone marker Toure, which let him alone with Valdes. Ronaldo made no mistakes with the opportunity and drilled a shot right by the keeper. Ronaldo 4 - Barca 2

90 - The Red Devils win again.

Final Stats

Manchester United-Barcelona

Goals: 4-2 Ronaldo (4, 18, 34, 87) Eto'o (5) Pique (49)
Shots: 8-13 (61%) 7-13 (54%)
Passes: 170-206 (82%) 214-262 (82%)
Fouls: 5 -3
Free Kicks: 3-5
Corner Kicks: 3-3
Interceptions: 46-34

Final Thoughts

So we had two different games that resulted in two different types of matchups: The FIFA simulation was a stalemate for a long period of time, while the PES match was a veritable goal bonanza. But in the end, the result was exactly the same, as Manchester United managed to prevail as the victors.

Now for Barcelona, there's no question that the absence of Marquez, Abidal and Alves made a huge difference. After all, the skill, strength and pace of Ronaldo, who was acting as Man United's out and out striker, posed a significant problem for the in-game Barca defenders.

Also, while Barca was able to generate some scoring chances and maintain a good measure of possession, the team simply lacked that final scoring touch. And for the most part, Vidic and Ferdinand dealt with the danger of Eto'o, while Evra did enough to keep Messi from exploding like he's capable of doing. However, one key match-up for Barca will be Henry on O'Shea, as Henry facilitated a good number of chances in both games, and he will look to do the same in the real game.

As for United, other than Ronaldo's brilliance, the team also had success with Rooney on the left wing, as he created multiple opportunities for himself and others, particularly Ronaldo. Also, Manchester United's midfield trio of Anderson, Giggs and Carrick did well in both games. They were effective enough to facilitate chances for Rooney, Ronaldo and Park, but also ensured that Xavi and Iniesta didn't completely dominate possession of the ball.

Meanwhile, Man United's defense was mostly up to the task in both games, but that's expected because van der Sar, O'Shea, Ferdinand, Vidic and Evra are as good as you'll get. However, they are prone to making clumsy mistakes, as seen in past games this year -- like the 4-1 drubbing against Liverpool. And that certainly also occurred twice in the PES simulation. So if United is not careful, Barca may very well be the beneficiary of a Manchester United error later today.

So while these simulations were fun, this of course does not mean that the real-life Barcelona team will face the same offensive difficulties, and it doesn't mean that Ronaldo will score four goals. Indeed, these two simulations have given us a nice look at how the games may possibly go down, and I think both teams have a good chance of winning.

But one major thing I took away from it all is that, based on the loss of three starters on the defensive line, Barca may really have some legitimate problems on defense. And whoever Guardiola decides upon for the final, he will certainly have his work cut out for him while dealing with Rooney, Ronaldo and others.

But in the end, we'll just have to wait and see what happens later today.


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