It is that time of year again. Time to go Bowling.
The best day/week in sports is nearly upon us. And while I hate to overlook Christmas, my favorite childhood holiday, I cannot help but feel giddy about New Year’s Day, and the veritable football feast that it will provide. New Year’s has clearly taken over Christmas in my mind, and college football is the reason why -- outdoor hockey is becoming a close second.
To prepare for this wonderful, wonderful day, I think it is appropriate to let my favorite sports game offer a possible glimpse of things to come. Thus, I spent some time watching NCAA Football 09 simulate through the four BCS bowls and the BCS National Championship game. If any of you are gamblers, I would throw these results right out the window -- as well as my corresponding predictions. But it was an interesting ride, nonetheless.
Just a few notes: I ran through these games on Heisman difficulty with five-minute quarters. Unfortunately, the quarter length did make the statistics a tad low on the realism scale –- and was not helped by some rather ludicrous play-calling and abhorrent ball-carrier vision. Regardless, the games did produce some interesting results.
Rose Bowl: USC 10, Penn State 6
During the 2008 season, Penn State did not run into many top-caliber defenses. In this simulation of the 2009 Rose Bowl, Penn State finally collided with one, and it showed with a vengeance.
Rey Maualuga (10 tackles in the contest) and company dominated the usually potent PSU offense, sacking QB Daryll Clark 5 times, and forcing him to commit 3 turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble). PSU was able to escape the first half with a measly 6-3 lead, but failed to cross midfield after the break.
The talented USC offense was only slightly more impressive, highlighted by stunning sophomore Joe McKnight’s 71 yards on 18 carries. McKnight’s dazzling 36-yard punt return also helped set up the game’s only touchdown in the third quarter, a 9-yard strike from Mark Sanchez to sophomore wideout Ronald Johnson.
My Take: The offense was an also-ran from both squads in this one, not something I anticipate occurring on New Year's Day. I do see the stalwart USC defense posing a huge problem for the Nittany Lions. I cannot, however, see the dynamic USC offense being held to a meager 10 points, even though there is some solid talent on the PSU defense.
Bottom line, I agree with the outcome, not the means by which it was achieved. I think USC takes it big, 42-17.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech 28, Cincinnati 14
Offensively speaking, this was one of the most exciting games to watch. Virginia Tech came out with a solid running game, much like VT has all season (in real life, mind you). Freshman tailback Darren Evans led the ground assault with 90 yards on 18 carries, including a 5-yard touchdown. Junior tailback Kenny Lewis added a third quarter 1-yard TD plunge in relief.
The Hokies took a commanding 21-0 lead into the fourth quarter, and appeared to seal the deal when cornerback Victor Harris pulled in an errant Tony Pike pass and took it 54 yards the other way to pay-dirt. But the Bearcats rallied, recovering an onside kick after a Pike touchdown pass, and reached the end zone again just moments later with a Jacob Ramsey 1-yard dive. The ensuing onside kick proved unsuccessful, however, and the Hokies were able to shut the door with a pair of kneel downs.
My Take: Depending on where you look, the spread has the Bearcats somewhere around a two-point favorite. NCAA 09 appears to disagree, and if I were a betting man, I would be inclined to follow suit. Call it a gut feeling, but looking at the schedules this year, I find the Hokies' body of work more impressive, regardless of record.
Consider this my upset alert. I take the Hokies to beat the spread and win outright 24-21.
Sugar Bowl: Utah 9, Alabama 0
If you enjoy defensive battles, then this was your marquee matchup of the BCS. Nothing extremely flashy, just rock-solid defense.
Both teams swapped punts and turnovers on downs throughout the course of the game. Alabama's star quarterback, John Parker Wilson, looked wretched, tallying two interceptions and a fumble, and managed only 82 yards through the air. The Utah defense abused Wilson, sending him to the turf seven times throughout the course of the game.
The Utah offense did little to take advantage of the defense’s stingy play, scoring on only three field goals, none of which were attempted from closer than the 25-yard line.
Neither offense even sniffed the end zone in this black-and-blue contest, making it a defensive coordinator’s dream and a spectator’s nightmare.
My Take: To put my reaction in text-speak: WTF?!? I do not like making predictions with confidence, as my betting track record is less than stellar, but there is no way that 'Bama loses this game, and no way that they do not win big. Sorry Utes fans, but 'Bama repeats the Orange Bowl blowout, 38-13. Roll Tide.
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State 16, Texas 14
This was, hands-down, the game of the simulated BCS. There were no outlandish offensive performances, but the teeter-totter of momentum kept me riveted all the way to the final seconds.
The Longhorns, heavy favorites in this contest, appeared to be off to big win from the onset, picking off freshman standout QB Terrelle Pryor on the game’s opening possession. The turnover crystallized into six points a few moments later, when Heisman-trophy-second-runner-up Colt McCoy fired a 3-yard TD pass to Quan Cosby.
The Buckeyes were able to respond with a field goal, capping a 55-yard drive with a 29-yard field goal, cutting the Longhorns lead to four. Texas struck back, however, with a 77-yard drive, relying mostly on the arm of McCoy. Vondrell McGee capped the drive with a 1-yard touchdown rumble late in the second quarter. The 14-3 Texas lead would last until the half.
The second half, however, belonged to the boys from the Big Ten. After a Texas three-and-out, the Buckeyes mounted an epic drive that spanned 67 yards, and included a fourth-and-two conversion on a fake punt. Pryor, who is been better known for his legs than his arm, was a magnificent 5-6 on the drive, finishing things off with a 6-yard strike to tight end Jake Ballard.
Texas failed to get anything going offensively for the remainder of the game, while the defense allowed another OSU field goal early in the fourth. A poor Longhorns punt with a minute remaining set the Buckeyes up at their own 46-yard line. Pryor led the offense gracefully down to the Texas 15-yard line. With ice water in his veins, kicker Ryan Pretorius drilled a 32-yard FG with two ticks remaining, sealing the victory for the Buckeyes.
My Take: I’m a Big Ten guy, and I must admit, I was pleased to see the Buckeyes take out a big-time opponent after back-to-back shellackings in BCS title games. But sadly, I highly doubt reality will imitate this simulation. McCoy is too good and too polished. Pryor may be a QB of the future, but I believe he is too green for this game.
Factor in the speed advantage the Longhorns posses at the skill positions, and I think that Texas takes it handily, 35-24.
BCS National Championship Game: Oklahoma 24, Florida 17
Taking a look at this score, one might think that this simulation could be very probable. Both teams are very talented on both sides of the football, and could very well hold each other in check. The method by which this score occurred in simulation, however, is nearly laughable.
Not a single offensive touchdown was scored during this game. All trips to the end zone game via defense or special teams.
The game began oddly, with both teams trying to convert on fourth down on their opening drives. Florida was stopped cold on their attempt; Oklahoma was successful on theirs, only to throw an interception a play later.
The Sooners drew first blood with a 31-yard Jimmy Stevens field goal. On the ensuing kickoff, junior tailback Brandon James took the rock 103 yards to the house, giving the Gators an exhilarating 7-3 lead. A blowout seemed imminent, as the Gator defense picked off Heisman winner Sam Bradford on the ensuing possession. But, Florida dual-threat QB Tim Tebow would not be outdone in the pick department, throwing an errant lame duck into the hands of Sooner defensive back Jonathan Nelson. 99 yards later, the Sooners had a 10-7 advantage.
Florida tied the game with a 40-yard field goal just before the half, and took the lead with an Ahmad Black 53-yard fumble return early in the third quarter. The Sooners responded with two more pick-sixes of their own, and slammed the door shut on the hapless Gators 24-17.
My Take: This one was odd to say the least. Both Heisman-winning quarterbacks suddenly turned into Jarrett Lees -- sorry for that one, Tiger fans -- with a total of eight interceptions thrown, three of which went back for six points the other way.
The score itself, however, I find very, very feasible. Even though the Sooners are missing one of their 1,000 yard rushers in DeMarco Murray, I think that they have an excellent chance of bringing the title back to Norman. Bradford is sniper accurate, and the OU defense comes to play in big situations. Despite Big Game Bob failing to show up for the big games in recent years, I think this is the year he redeems himself, and prevents a three-peat of SEC champions.
I will go with NCAA 09’s exact outcome here, and take the Sooners 24-17.
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I know that there must be a few of you college football message-board junkies out there, so let me hear it. What are your predictions for the BCS?