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NCAA Basketball Tournament Simulation - Part 1

Stuffed shirt business types are estimating that between researching teams, filling out brackets, organizing office pools, and following the weekday games, US businesses will lose an estimated 3.8 billion dollars in lost productivity during March Madness. Being one who has never been a fan of stuffed shirts, or productivity for that matter, the team at Operation Sports has decided to help you out with your brackets. What’s another couple million in lost wages between friends?

With the help of my already crumpled bracket, 2K Sports’ College Hoops 2K6, an Xbox, and time on my hands, I conducted a very unscientific simulation of the 2006 NCAA Men’s Tournament. The test took place under the direct supervision of the Accounting firm of Daughter and Daughter. OK, it was my kids watching me spend two hours setting up the tournament in 2K6’s Tournament Mode while yelling, “Oh… can you be the purple pirate team!?!”

For the purposes of this simulation, we used the most current rosters available from 2K. Pure simulation on 20-minute halves. No slider tweaks. No rule changes. Straight out of the box.

This will be the first in a two part series. In Part 1, we’ll take you through the first two rounds all the way to the Sweet 16.

Paint your faces. Get out your foam fingers. It’s game time!

Minneapolis Region

Play-In Game
At the time of this simulation, the Play-In game had not actually taken place. And, in our simulation, unlike what happen on the real court, Hampton was able to take care of Monmouth for the “honor” of playing #1 seed Villanova.

Hampton – 61
Monmouth – 49

Besides #1 overall seed Villanova, the Minneapolis Region also boasts perhaps the deepest and toughest road in the tournament. Big Ten Champion Ohio State sits at the #2 seed, while #3 belongs to SEC Champ Florida who, despite accusations of playing a cupcake schedule, comes into the tourney with something to prove. The Region also features a tough Boston College team and Georgetown, an early season favorite and potential sleeper.

Round One Results

#1 Villanova – 76
#16 Hampton – 59

#8 Arizona – 56
#9 Wisconsin – 67

#5 Nevada – 69
#12 Montana – 67

#4 Boston College – 67
#13 Pacific – 59

#6 Oklahoma – 77
#11 UW-Milwaukee – 54

#3 Florida – 63
#14 South Alabama – 65

#7 Georgetown – 53
#10 Northern Iowa – 58

#2 Ohio State – 92
#15 Davidson – 80

Two huge upsets in the first round of the Minneapolis Region as #3 Florida proves the neigh Sayers right by losing to a tough South Alabama squad coached by former Billy Donovan assistant John Pelphrey. The Panthers of Northern Iowa also claimed a huge upset over Georgetown to move on to the Second Round from the #10 spot.

Round Two Results

#1 Villanova – 86
#9 Wisconsin – 63

#5 Nevada – 50
#4 Boston College – 56

#6 Oklahoma – 80
#14 South Alabama – 64

#10 Northern Iowa – 45
#2 Ohio State – 67

Both Cinderellas blew out their Crystal Pumps in the Second Round as they couldn’t sustain their First Round momentum.

Sweet 16 – Minneapolis Region

#1 Villanova
#4 Boston College
#6 Oklahoma
#2 Ohio State


Washington D.C. Region

Moving from many people’s pick as the toughest to, arguably, the weakest Region in this year’s tournament, we go to the DC Region. #1 Connecticut is certainly no slouch, but coming off a Big East Tournament loss to Syracuse, it’s hard to predict where the Huskies’ heads are at. Tennessee is being loudly touted as the most overrated #2 seed in NCAA Tournament history. And, even perennial powers like North Carolina and Michigan State are not really scaring anyone going in.

Round One Results

#1 Connecticut - 88
#16 Albany – 72

#8 Kentucky – 85
#9 UAB – 74

#5 Washington – 87
#12 Utah State – 78

#4 Illinois – 80
#13 Air Force – 55

#6 Michigan State – 73
#11 George Mason – 71

#3 North Carolina – 63
#14 Murray State – 71

#7 Wichita State – 59
#10 Seton Hall – 56

#2 Tennessee – 72
#15 Winthrop – 49

Clearly it is a bad year to be a #3 seed as the young and overachieving North Carolina team is shocked in Dayton by the Racers of Murray State. The Spartans narrowly escaped George Mason. And Tennessee proved that maybe that #2 seed was justified.

Round Two Results

#1 Connecticut – 85
#8 Kentucky – 78

#5 Washington – 88
#4 Illinois – 71

#6 Michigan State – 71
#14 Murray State – 78

#7 Wichita State – 59
#2 Tennessee – 72

The slipper stills fits for #14 Murray State as they take out Michigan State to secure their spot in the Sweet 16. UCONN and Tennessee continue to roll and look like the class of this bracket. It’s shapin’ up to be another tough year for the Big Ten.

Sweet 16 – Washington D.C. Region

#1 Connecticut
#5 Washington
#14 Murray State
#2 Tennessee


Atlanta Region

When the #8 seed in a Region is the only two-loss team in the tournament, you know you are looking at a tough bracket. Besides Duke, you have the Big 12 regular season Champion in Texas, the Big Ten tournament Champ in the Hawkeyes, and Syracuse, the story of the conference tournament season.

Round One Results

#1 Duke – 79
#16 Southern – 53

#8 George Washington – 87
#9 UNC-Wilmington – 67

#5 Syracuse – 69
#12 Texas A&M – 62

#4 LSU – 80
#13 Iona – 56

#6 West Virginia – 64
#11 Southern Illinois – 52

#3 Iowa – 78
#14 Northwestern State – 66

#7 California – 62
#10 NC State – 53

#2 Texas – 78
#15 Pennsylvania – 74

A perfect First Round in the eyes of the selection committee as all of the higher seeds advance. While Texas and Syracuse both had minor scares, the entire bracket cruised pretty easily into the weekend.

Round Two Results

#1 Duke – 66
#8 George Washington – 68

#5 Syracuse – 52
#4 LSU – 64

#6 West Virginia – 54
#3 Iowa – 61

#7 California – 66
#2 Texas – 53

And, like that, the tournament loses its first #1 seed as George Washington proved that they as good as their record indicates. Syracuse’s luck ran out when they ran into LSU. While California looks like a force to be reckoned with behind Sophomore Forward Leon Powe.

Sweet 16 – Atlanta Region

#8 George Washington
#4 LSU
#3 Iowa
#7 California


Oakland Region

The Oakland Region features the two best West Coast teams in UCLA and Gonzaga as well as two of the most athletic teams in Kansas and Memphis. Whatever teams come through the Oakland Region are going to earn it. No easy baskets here. This will be a physical path to the Sweet 16.

Round One Results

#1 Memphis – 81
#16 Oral Roberts – 71

#8 Arkansas – 83
#9 Bucknell – 42

#5 Pittsburgh – 85
#12 Kent State – 48

#4 Kansas – 53
#13 Bradley – 87

#6 Indiana – 78
#11 San Diego State – 64

#3 Gonzaga – 61
#14 Xavier – 56

#7 Marquette – 37
#10 Alabama – 54

#2 UCLA – 61
#15 Belmont – 74

In what can only be described as pure insanity, the First Round of the Oakland Region was chock full of blowouts, upsets, and blowout upsets. The Bradley Braves absolutely manhandled the Jayhawks winning by 34 behind a 25 point – 10 rebound performance from their 7’0” Sophomore Center Patrick O’Bryant. And in the most shocking moment of the tournament so far, two Bruins teams went into the #2/#15 seed game between UCLA and Belmont, but the surprise Bruins team came out.

Round Two Results

#1 Memphis – 60
#8 Arkansas – 68

#5 Pittsburgh – 68
#13 Bradley – 70

#6 Indiana – 42
#3 Gonzaga – 76

#10 Alabama – 53
#15 Belmont – 52

Bradley keeps dancing as they beat a tough Pittsburgh squad to reach the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, Belmont turns back into a pumpkin as they lose a nail-biter to Alabama. Plus, we lose another #1 as Arkansas easily handles Memphis.

Sweet 16 – Oakland Region

#8 Arkansas
#13 Bradley
#3 Gonzaga
#10 Alabama


What will happen next???

Who will cut down the nets???

What underdog will keep dancing???

Whose got the horses to win it all???

We’ll take you from the Sweet 16 through the Championship in Part 2.

Till then, please visit our forums to discuss this simulation and all of the NCAA Tournament.