NBA 2K9 Declining Player Rating Projections

Feature Article

Submitted on: 06/27/2008 by Richard Chavez

With the NBA Draft finally over, teams and fans can now look forward to seeing their team's young guys in action in 2008-2009. But what about the veterans who are on the decline? In this article, I am going to analyze five players who are not like fine wine and are indeed getting worse as the years pass.

Jason Kidd
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2K8 Rating 92
Projected NBA 2K9 Rating 87

On February 19th, 2008 the New Jersey Nets traded Jason Kidd and others for Devin Harris, Desagana Diop, two first round picks, and more. The move allowed Kidd to return to the team that drafted him in 1994, the Dallas Mavericks. The acquisition was supposed to push Dallas over the top, to win the title they came so close to winning in 2006. However, the Mavs were bounced in five games in the first round against New Orleans. Kidd looked particularly slow on defense against the spectacular Chris Paul, and averaged only 8.6 points and 6.8 assists for the series.

With so much riding on Kidd in Dallas as he enters his 15th season at the age of 35, it is hard to expect he will be able to keep up with the Deron Williams’, Chris Paul’s, and Derrick Rose’s of the world.

Steve Nash
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2K8 Rating 96
Projected NBA 2K9 Rating 92

Many people thought Phoenix was crazy to sign Steve Nash to a six year deal when he became a free agent in the summer of 2004. Four years later though, Nash is a two-time MVP and has completely turned around the franchise. The Suns made it to the Western Conference Finals two of his first three years with the team. Though the team was relevant and fans were filling the US Airways Center, Nash did not bring a championship to the team that drafted him. It seems that window has passed, with the team dropping their coach and adopting a more traditional style with the addition of Shaquille O’Neal.

The 34 year old from Canada is not getting any younger but he should still play at a high level. Still, the success of the Suns will not be solely on him like it was in year’s past.

Shaquille O’Neal
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2K8 Rating 87
Projected NBA 2K9 Rating 83

If The Big Cactus spent as much time getting into shape as he does flexing his MC skills, he’d be a lot closer to The Big Aristotle we’ve known for years. In fact, in the past three seasons, he’s missed roughly one full season due to injury. At least he can afford the suits with his $20 million dollar salary.

When Steve Kerr acquired him from Miami, he knew he wasn’t getting the beast that played in Orlando and Los Angeles. Now, the Newark native is in the lineup for his defense, rebounding, and leadership. At 36, O’Neal will continue to be effective in small doses. His days of dominating the paint and breaking the backboards are long gone.

Ray Allen
Boston Celtics
NBA 2K8 Rating 92
Projected NBA 2K9 Rating 86

Ray Allen still has what it takes to light up the scoreboard. As evidenced by the 2008 All Star Game, he can bring his team back from any deficit if he gets hot at the right time. He’s also great for putting the opponent away as well, like in game six of the NBA Finals. Still, he no longer has the Jesus Shuttlesworth-like intensity he had when he was drafted. His points per game dropped nine points in the 2008 season, which could have something to do with joining a team with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Nonetheless, Allen will be relied on less as his career goes on in to its 14th year. At the age of 33, it’s hard to imagine a career resurgence to the point where he goes back to the days of averaging 25 points a game.

Tim Duncan
San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2K8 Rating 98
Projected NBA 2K9 Rating 94

Tim Duncan’s averages dipped only slightly in the 2007-2008 season, but his grasp on the NBA championship slipped this season. No longer is Duncan able to carry the team on his own and at the age of 32 it seems as if he may be past his prime. In five or six years when his career is over, Tim Duncan will be mentioned in the same breath as the greatest power forwards in NBA history. His career has reached a point where he can’t will his team all by himself. Duncan is still an amazing player and definitely deserves his high rating, but his absolute best days are in the past.
After being drafted first overall in 1997 out of Wake Forest, Duncan has won four NBA titles but if the Spurs don’t get help, four will be his last.

Do you think Steve Nash and Tim Duncan still have what it takes? Is Jason Kidd going to take Dallas to the promise land? Are the Celtics going to repeat on the back of Ray Allen? Is Shaquille O’Neal a better rapper than basketball player? Be sure to let me know what you think!

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Member Comments

# 1 Jcon77 @ 06/27/08 01:57 PM

All fair observations. The only one I can come close to questioning is Duncan. He was not exactly getting the outside help he has in the past several years either. Every defense collapsed on him like never before. I guess thats what happens when your point guard can't hit anything from outside 5 feet.

# 2 buttons0662 @ 06/27/08 02:02 PM

IMO... You are out of your MIND!!! ... J.Kidd almost avereged...AVERAGED a TRIPLE DOUBLE last year!!! ... YES.. He couldn't defend Chris Paul ... but this is CHRIS PAUL people. I would decrease his "Speed" but Kidd still has the Handle, Passing Ability, and Awareness he always had ... a drop is expected ... But Kidd ain't dropping past 90.

Tim DUNCAN... 94... WHAT!!!???!!! ... No Way is DIRK, Dwight Howard better that TIMAY!!! NEVER ... Tim = 99 or on par with KG ... I HATE San Antonio & Timmy by the way so this ain't "Fan Boyism" ... just have RESPET for his game

Steve Nash ... 92... don't like him ... thats fine with me ... he is still a Star ... but if Nash is a 92 then Kidd has to be 90, 91

SHAQ ... I love Shaq ... How his A** taste Kobe??? ... 83 is just disrespectful ... so what you are saying is Shaq = ANDREW BOGUT ? ... that J. O'Neal is the better O'Neal ... That Kaman, Okafor, Camby, Dalembert are BETTER that the Diesel ... NO WAY!!!

Ray "All most FINALS MVP" Allen .. rating is gonna drop? Yes he stunk it up during Boston's run to the Finals but he showed up when they NEEDED him. So a 6 point drop...Maybe ... but I dont see it

Just My Opinion
Buttons

# 3 lovesnikes @ 06/27/08 02:18 PM

buttons im sorry but right now shaq is way to old at 36. he wasnt dominant at all last year he was just a solid role player. with the suns he averaged 8 points and 5 rebounds which actually Camby, Dalembert, Okafor, and kaman average much better then those stats. im sorry hes done but hes funny good rapper. i kind of agree with you on Timmy he should at least be a 96or 97 but hes no 99 bud, hes not on par with kg ur comparing him with players like kobe and lebron who have 99. oh yea dwight howard dominated shaq each time they played. dwight averaged 20 and 14 last year hes really the best center in the game right now. honestly ray allen is no 86. hes at least a 89. to be on the team he was on and still average 18 points a game....are u serious basically hes a shooter and its very hard for them to score that much anyway but having to play wit two other stars like paul and kevin wow hes still pretty good

# 4 Altimus @ 06/27/08 02:24 PM

No way Duncan takes a hit like that; nor Ray Allen. I see Shaq taking a huge hit this year, maybe even more than predicted.

# 5 DTX3 @ 06/27/08 02:36 PM

Wow, im surprised at Allen dropping so much.

# 6 CMH @ 06/27/08 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smokez4DAyz


	I just hope the Knicks players are not downgraded because of Isiah's lack of prep. Its been said by opposing scouts, that Knicks ran no more than a two pass offense, and a protect Eddy defense, hence all the threes they gave up this year. I believe the Knicks will get D'antoni's play style set. And Crawford will get a slight upgrade with everyone else staying the same.

So you also agree that Isiah Thomas has indirectly affected the ratings of star players like Ray Allen and Jason Kidd.

When will Thomas' wrath end?

But on to the article. Solid projections with reasonable explanations. I don't agree with all of them. I think you are hitting some guys too hard but at least you backed yourself up.

I always look forward to your articles Mr. Chavez and this one is no different.

# 7 Lynsanity @ 06/27/08 06:18 PM

I don't really think Ray Allen has dropped off at all. I think the system the Celtics use hinders what he can do as a player. He doesn't have the ball as much as KG or Pierce, so his offense has to come from screen usuage, set plays, and shot clock bail outs.

# 8 spursfan @ 06/27/08 06:47 PM

I agree whole heartedly with the exception of duncan and ray allen. You would expect ray's numbers to drop on a team with two other all stars. Tim didn't play that bad. The spurs just look old and tired.

# 9 trobinson97 @ 06/28/08 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spursfan


	I agree whole heartedly with the exception of duncan and ray allen. You would expect ray's numbers to drop on a team with two other all stars. Tim didn't play that bad. The spurs just look old and tired.

Agreed, I wouldn't expect Timmy's or Ray Ray's rating to drop that far, but certainly a drop is in order.

# 10 jewelz1132 @ 06/28/08 01:44 PM

I dont know man..I dont feel there should be an overall rating..I think each player should be categorized in a by their skill set and role on a team..Sort of like NBA Lives Playmakers feature but without the crazy abilities and gimmicks (so there would be athletic type, Scorer, 3Pt Shooter D-Specialist, Post Player etc.) that way when you trade a player..he might be good on the team he was on but he could come to a new team and be completely garbage..Honestly I cant fully explain what I'm thinking about at the moment so I will comeback lol

# 11 Cagney3t @ 06/28/08 03:25 PM

This is my opinion:
I've stated this idea in a couple of my previous posts on previous boards here but let me restate... No player should ever, on any game, be rated higher than a 95 overall. Maybe not even that high. Claiming that a player is anything over a 95 is more/less calling them perfect. Especially if they are rated a 99. NO BODY IS PERFECT. I really hate it when I buy a new game, go straight to the edit player section (my favorite thing to do) and see 20 some players all rated higher than a 95. That includes NBA, MLB, and the worse of all, Madden games. Im not even gonna start on Madden games. Anyways, the possible lone exception to my rant coud be Tiger Woods because, let's face it, he is Tiger Woods....Now to the topic at hand. I will give you my overall ratings in the way 2K developers would rate them, not the actually real way I would rate a player. (Ex: Nash not an acual 94)

Jason Kidd: as stated by buttons0662, the man did almost average a triple-double in the regular season (11, 8, 10), so a 5 point drop is a little to excessive. I believe that he will be rated as a 90 overall because he is a PG and his highest ratings are always in Off Awr, Drib, and Passing which affect the ratings of a PG the most.

Steve Nash
Dropping him 4 points to a 92 is close, but I will say a 94. This years stats are very similiar to his MVP seasons. The only stat is greatly different is the PPG which is down from 18 to 16. He averaged more assits this season than both his MVP seasons as well. An upside is that fact that they brought back Grant Hill who in his old age, NBA standards, can still get up and down the floor in transition. Shaq being there isnt much of a difference because he will be outlet passing galore this upcoming season. So, expect Steve Nash to put up numbers just as he has the past 5 seasons. Let's face, he can still shoot lights out when he wants.

Shaquille O'Neal
83 is what it should be, probably a little lower, but Shaq is a marquee name and there is no way the developers will let him go that low because they think that he will somehow deage by about 5 years. His knees and ankles are HORRIBLE. He can't shoot his patented turnaround fade one-hander anymore. He is out of shape and worst of all is his attitude. Personally, I never have liked Shaq. He is a bigman who WAS great at basketball and he
knew it. He has always believed that he is above the law. (well not anymore demoted deputy HA.)

Ray Allen
Smoothest shooter in the NBA and he can still fill it up. I agree with everything you said in your piece, but an 86 is to low. I believe an 88 is about right. He is a SG and as long as he can still fill it up, his overall will be higher than it should because shooting stats are the stats that affect a SG the most. I do believe that his drive will go down a little now that he has is ring. Don't be surprised if he retires after this upcoming season.

Tim Duncan
Tim-mueee! Rating him a 98 in last years game was laughable. He is the anti-video game persona. If 2K institutes a rating of "Winning" than Duncan would be a 100. Thats all he does is win. Putting up stats is another issue. For someone to be rated a 98 IN A VIDEO GAME, which they should never be, they have to put up LeBron type numbers (30, 8, 7). Duncan averaged 19 and 11 in last year's regular season. His days of 25 and 13 are long gone. He is still one of the top 5 players in the real league, but he isn't in the videogame league. The four point drop is exaclty what it should be. Your rating of a 94 is fundamentally sound as a kiss off the glass.

# 12 xRage @ 07/02/08 02:33 PM

If you ask me, Shaq deserves the drop, there's no way he deserves even close to a 90 now days just because he has proved that he isn't near as dominant as he was when he played in LA or Orlando, he kind of reminds me of Ben Wallace now days, just there for the defence. 83 is perfectly respectable for where he's at

Timmy... I kinda do understand, and to those who say Dwight or even Dirk isn't better then Timmy kinda has their head up their a**, as Dwight puts up amazing numbers for how young he is and Dirk is still an amazing player. I can see Dirk and Timmy having about the same stats though, maybe around 93, possibly the 94 you have Timmy at, but I'm not sure even I'd go that high, maybe 91 or 92

Nash, yes, he's still a GREAT player, but I don't think he even deserves a rating that high, his play has dropped and he's just getting old, possibly a 90, maybe even an 89

Ray Ray, idk, ya he was amazing when he was in seattle, but now that he's in Boston and he's not being relied on as much, i don't think he's as amazing as he used to be, just still has that 3 point shot that i feel in love with xD 86 seems about right

Jason kid is running out of gas, ya he's still averaging some remotely impressive numbers, but when you look at him on the court, he's beginning to look sloppy. The odds that he will help Dirk lead the Mavs to the championship game again is very unlikely. If you ask me, some of his fans should be lucky he's even getting an 87, i'd prob only give him an 84, maybe an 85 at best

# 13 cam9219 @ 07/04/08 10:39 PM

Nash is not falling off, he is the best shooter and runs the pick and roll better than anyone in the league. I know there will be people that think because of his age, but he is the best shooter in the league.

# 14 DC @ 07/04/08 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cam9219


	Nash is not falling off, he is the best shooter and runs the pick and roll better than anyone in the league. I know there will be people that think because of his age, but he is the best shooter in the league.

LOL You say it as if that is something that is reflected in a video game

# 15 DDO15 @ 08/11/08 02:35 AM

I dont like this I like what u did with Shaq but Kidd is like 90. Nash like 93, Duncan like 96 and Ray Allen like 89 or 90.

# 16 slvicick @ 08/19/08 12:02 AM

I love VC, but if he is still OVR 90+ with a 99 Dunking, something is wrong.

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